Five out of province trainers will be involved in the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate meeting and they have some good winning chances.

In the big one the Sean Tarry-trained title holder Legal Eagle has not been beaten in four career attempts at a mile and that includes three Graded weight for age miles. Tarry has a lot of respect for Marinaresco having taken note of his unbelievable run in the Vodacom Durban July, but Legal Eagle will likely be able to dictate considering his handy style of running, his good draw and the world class Anton Marcus in the saddle. Therefore, he is going to be very hard to beat.

Most are viewing it as a two horse race, but another out of province runner, the Mike Azzie-trained Abashiri is the one horse of the rest who has the ability to upset. The Triple Crown hero had a very tough task t the weights in the July, but ran a commendable race, and after a deserved holiday he now has his third run after a layoff. The trip is on the sharp side, but he has three things in his favour, a pole position draw, the brilliant Gavin Lerena aboard and he is a son of Go Deputy, whose progeny notably come into their own during their four-year-old season.

Tarry also runs the classy French Navy, who would prefer further and this is a likely preparation for the Sun Met, but he is capable of a place especially with Weichong Marwing up. Mike de Kock runs the three-year-old Bold Rex, who has a tough task on official merit ratings, but he is very much a progressive sort and is one of the dark horses from a good draw of six under Randall Simons.

Dennis Drier has recently won the Gr 1 Maine Chance Paddock Stakes with the brilliant Beach Beauty and his charge this year Sail has a definite shout as an improving sort who was staying on late in the Gr 1 WSB Cape Fillies Guineas, although she has a tough draw.

Tarry has a fine chance in the Paddock Stakes with Safe Harbour, a long-striding three-year-old who could be the chief danger to the ultra-classy local horse Bela-Bela. Tarry’s other charge Tahini is improving, as Silvano’s do, but is up against it on her bare form.

Tarry’s first-timer in race 2, Celestina, is by Kahal out of a Jet Master maiden. The champion trainer has had a fine record with two-year-old first-timers over the last two seasons.

De Kock’s runner here Rumbavar is significantly having her second start as she is a full-sister to a filly who won by over five lengths second time out.

De Kock’s runner in the Gr 3 Politician Stakes, Coyote, looks to have his work cut out on formlines, although being by Fort Wood he might enjoy the step up in trip.

De Kock has a fine chance of landing the Gr 3 BMW Chairmans Cup with his talented stayer Smart Mart, who looks the one to beat over the suitable 3200m trip.

In Race 9 Drier’s Chestnuts N Pearls is officially well weighted over an ideal trip, but she has not run since last June and her merit rating was achieved in a two-year-old Gr 1 which hasn’t worked out too well.

Johan Janse van Vuuren’s sole runner on the day, She’s A Giver, is a most interesting contender in that same race as she will likely relish the step down to 1400m and is well drawn, although with Simons up she does have to carry 1kg over her set 51kg.

By David Thiselton

Greyville Friday 06 January 2017 selections and tips by Andrew Harrison

Race 1
Preview: DISRUPT has been a touch disappointing but meets a weak field and now tries blinkers. At her best she should be good enough to win this. LIL GAMBLER is showing signs of coming to hand again. She caught the eye last run and should be right there. VALLANAUT found market support last start but was not suited to the soft ground. She can do much better here. WILLOWGRANE is a battling maiden but goes well on the poly and is seldom too far back. She has a chance in this company.  (Andrew Harrison: 1-5-12-2).

Race 2
Preview: Poor field. SOLDIER’S BRIDE has yet to finish out of the money and will never get a better chance to shed her maiden ticket. TAKAMAKA has shown some recent improvement on the Highveld and that form could prove stronger than local. She looks a threat to the selection. ROY’S PONY was a beaten favourite last run after a good second at her penultimate start. She could prove better over this shorter trip. POMONA is a well bred first timer and one to watch in the betting. (Andrew Harrison: 1-6-7-11).

Race 3
Preview: Tricky. STARWIN has been knocking at the door. She was a close-up second last start and can go one better here. MOSTARDA returns from a break but has only had three outings and looks to have some scope and can still improve. MANDOLIN appears to be coming to hand and was close-up last run. She has a four-claimer up and a repeat of her last start should see her contest the finish. BYE BYE BABY found some long-shot support last start and did improve. She could be com9ng to hand. (Andrew Harrison: 1-2-5-4).

Race 4
Preview: FASHION FUSION was not disgraced in Graduation company two runs back and was coming at them late next time out. She looks to have a big chance in this field. LAVENDER BANK has had one run since a lengthy break. She is lightly raced but does have some ability. JAZZ BAR has show some improvement on the poly and looks best over this trip. MAMSELLE AL was a recent maiden winner at her 21^st attempt but that form has worked out quite well and she has a chance again. (Andrew Harrison: 11-1-7-2).

Race 5
Preview: Wide open. ALDRIC has a big weight but does take a drop in class and is seldom far back. CAUGHTINTHEDEEP was much improved last run and has a light weight. A repeat could see him home. RED APACHE has not been far back at recent outings and with a four-claimer up can feature. APOLLO’S GIFT has shown recent improvement and can run into the money. (Andrew Harrison: 1-11-2-4).

Race 6
Preview: Very tricky. JUST RAP has done well to stronger and now gets a stronger rider aboard. She could be god value here. WE’RE WATCHING YOU took on a strong field first run out of the maidens. She meets weaker here and should also enjoy the extra. CAPTAINS MOLL showed early promise and finally put it together last start. The blinkers go on and she can do even better. HALLOWED SPRING is lightly raced and can improve on her poly debut. (Andrew Harrison: 7-5-8-2)

Race 7
Preview: GINGERBREAD MAN has excellent form on the poly. He goes this trip for the first time but from the best draw he must have a bright chance. HIGHWAY EIGHTYFIVE has been racing in strong company since shedding his maiden. He looks better than rated. SECRET WARNING was an easy course and distance winner last run and is well in at these weights. He can follow up. EDDIE SWEAT jumps in trip and has taken a rating drop so looks fairly well in. (Andrew Harrison: 1-6-2-4).

Race 8
Preview: ROY’S HOLLYHOCK takes on males but has shown some promise in her last two starts. She makes her poly debut but rates the one to beat. MEDIA CICUS has run his two best recent races on the poly and looks the principal danger. STORM OUTGOING improved last run when tried over ground and the blinkers are back on. COUNT PHILLIP is lengths better on the poly and should improve on his last run on the turf. (Andrew Harrison: 12-1-6-7)

The Gr 3 Cartier Politician Stakes over 1800m on L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate day has become an important Investec Cape Derby pointer and the Joey Ramsden-trained Newlands looks to be the one to side with from a pole position draw with Anton Marcus up.

The Australian-bred will relish the trip, being by Epsom Derby winner High Chaparral, although he is not all about stamina as his dam is a half-sister to Golden Slipper winner and Champion two-year-old colt in Australia, Vancouver. Newlands’ strong form gives him the edge over the rest of the field.

As a two-year-old he was staying on strongly in the Gr 3 Langerman over 1500m to finish just 1,35 lengths behind his stalwart stablemate Table Bay, from whom he was receiving just 2kg. In his seasonal reappearance in a Graduation Plate over 1600m he was receiving just 2kg from the four-year-old Whisky Baron and was beaten just 1,25 lengths. Whisky Baron went on to win his next two starts and is currently the J&B Met third favourite.

Newlands lost his chance at the start of the Lanzerac Ready To Run Stakes over 1400m when missing the break, but stayed on from last and finished just 5,5 lengths back.

Last time out he finished 2,55 lengths back in a MR 88 Handicap over 1600m off a merit rating of 90, not great form at first sight, but the winner of the race was none other than William Longsword, from whom he was receiving just 1,5kg. The latter followed up by winning the Gr 1 Grand Parade Cape Guineas in impressive style.

Newlands is the joint highest merit rated horse in the Politician Stakes on 91 and is officially joint best weighted together with Horizon and Sunset Eyes.

On collateral form Craven looks to have the measure of Horizon. The Candice Bass-Robinson-trained colt was comfortably beaten by Craven in his penultimate start and the latter had few excuses when beaten 9,3 lengths in the Cape Guineas.

Horizon is bred in the purple, being by Dynasty out of an unraced full-sister to the champion stallion Silvano. He was unlucky in the Listed Jet Master Stakes over 1600m and was rallying back at the line. The progeny of Dynasty improve with age and he will relish the step up in trip. The Bass-Robinson yard are known for bringing their horses on steadily, so Horizon can’t be written off with stable jockey Grant van Niekerk up from a good draw.

The Brett Crawford-trained Sunset Eyes was taken into the lead from a wide draw over 1400m last time and used his big action to good effect in front, only just failing to hold on. He has never been tried over further than 1400m and on pedigree there is a slight stamina doubt. He also looks held by Newlands on a line through Table Bay, although he is joint best in at the weights officially.

On jockeys bookings, the Crawford yard appear to prefer both Carbon Offset and The Great One, as Richard Fourie and Corne Orffer have kept the respective rides.

Carbon Offset, who is by Gimmethegreenlight and is a half-brother to Gr 1 winner Forest Indigo, was keen in front last time when fading over 1600m in a handicap. However, he had stayed on to win the previous time in a 1600m handicap when covered up in the running and comfortably beat Summer Sky, who went on to beat Sunset Eyes. The form of Carbon Offset’s last win has worked out well, but from a wide draw on Saturday the cover he appears to need won’t be easy to find and his keen antics last time don’t augur well for the step up in trip. He is also officially 1,5kg under sufferance with the best in.

The Great One can hardly be separated from Horizon on the form of his win over 1400m at Durbanville in his penultimate start, although he was subsequently never in the race in the Lanzerac Ready To Run Stakes. The Nadeem colt should relish the step up in trip, but is officially 1kg under sufferance with the best in.

The Justin Snaith-trained Strathdon hasn’t run since early November when beaten 5,3 lengths by William Longsword over 1600m, when receiving just 0,5kg. Therefore, he is not far behind Newlands on form and confirming that is a line through a horse called Union Jack. He is by Silvano so should be improving all the time and he will relish the step up in trip. He is a dark horse and is officially only 0,5kg under sufferance with the best in too. He has a good draw of three and Weichong Marwing is an interesting booking.

The Snaith-trained King Of The Rally finished just 3,25 lengths behind Cape Guineas runner up Gold Standard in a maiden over 1600m in October. However, Gold Standard didn’t get out of third gear and furthermore King Of The Rally was receiving 4kg from the horse he beat in the Guineas Plate in PE by 0,25 lengths and the latter, Pacific Spirit, was then beaten 7,8 lengths in the Cape Guineas.

Ollivander improved over 1800m last time, just failing from a wide draw, and is a Silvano from the Bass-Robinson yard who should be continually improving. However, on form-lines he has his work cut out and looks the yard second string.

The Slade, a half-brother by Philanthropist to Gr 1-winner Afrikaburn, is an interesting runner as he beat Craven in a handicap over 1600m when receiving only 1,5kg and is a galloping type who should enjoy this course and distance.

However, he was flattered by the 1,5 length margin he finished behind William Longsword in the Sealangor over 1600m as the latter was clearly below par on the day.

The latter trio mentioned are all officially 1,5kg under sufferance with the best in. It all points to Newlands winning this important Derby trial.

By David Thiselton

The Pick 6 at Saturday’s Gr 1 L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate meeting will be a popular bet and should attract a massive pool. And, against the norm, it does not appear hard to catch at first sight.

Whisky Baron looks hard to beat in the first leg, the Gr 2 Glorious Goodwood Peninsula Handicap over 1800m, and Newlands and Bela-Bela are possible Pick 6 bankers too in the Gr 3 Cartier Politician Stakes over 1800m and the Gr 1 Maine Chance Farms Paddock Stakes over 1800m respectively.

In the big one the duo of Legal Eagle and Marinaresco look hard to oppose.

The biggest hurdles look to be the last two legs, the Gr 3 BMW Chairman’s Cup over 3200m and a Conditions Plate over 1400m for fillies and mares.

However, as soon as one of the “meeting bankers” are beaten, the dividends become lucrative on these big racedays.

This is what makes the Pick 6 such an intriguing bet.

Therefore, the shrewd might be burning the midnight oil studying those last two legs in order to narrow down their choices there, while at the same time attempting to find one or two who can upset in the seemingly easier legs.

Last year, for example, Light The Lights turned out in retrospect to be a good bet in the Peninsula at odds of 10/1. Gelding had settled and improved him and as one who had always been blessed with plenty of ability he was cherry ripe to deliver. He duly did so.

Smart Call, in retrospect, was also a good thing in the 2016 Paddock Stakes, where she started second favourite. Hindsight has shown the progeny of Ideal World improve continually and Smart Call had already won a Gr 1 over a middle distance the previous season as a three-year-old, the Woolavington 2000. Furthermore, she was a member of one of the best three-year-old fillies crops the country had ever seen.

Everybody becomes an expert after the race, but it is never easy to be one beforehand, especially in a bet as difficult as the Pick 6.

Nevertheless, catching the Pick 6 on a big day is the ultimate challenge and there are virtually always handsome rewards.

The beauty of the Pick 6 bet locally is that fractional betting has allowed punters to take as little as 1% of a full permutation.

This is what also makes the Pick 6 the most fun bet on a big day and probably the one worth spending the most time on.

By David Thiselton

Grant van Niekerk, not normally a jockey who likes to think too much about tactics beforehand, has been giving a fair bit of thought to how he and Marinaresco can floor odds-on shot Legal Eagle in the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate at Kenilworth on Saturday.

“The draw (ten out of 11) is a bit of a problem and it’s going to be tough to get a nice position,” he admits. “I am going to give him a chance but I don’t want to be too far back.

“Marinaresco loves to be switched off early when he doesn’t like a lot of pressure on him. But he finishes strongly so I am not going to change anything.”

The horse has less than half a length to find on Green Point running. Can he do it? “I hope so. He is capable of beating Legal Eagle and he probably needed his run last time but he will be right come Saturday.

“They went really fast in the Green Point and that brought out the best in my horse so I am hoping that they go a similar sort of pace. We will be fighting it out.”

In the Maine Chance Farms Paddock Stakes Silver Mountain has almost a length and a half to find with Bela-Bela. What chance has she got of reversing the form? “She is doing very well. Whether she will see out the 1 800m I don’t know but she switches off in a race and she is going to be finishing very strongly.”

In both races the rising star is up against Anton Marcus, four times champion and rated one of the best jockeys in the world. What does van Niekerk make of his opponent?

“It’s very tough riding against him – he is different class. I don’t want to be too far off him this time because when Anton skips you it is hard to catch him.”

By Michael Clower