The Gr 3 Cartier Politician Stakes over 1800m on L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate day has become an important Investec Cape Derby pointer and the Joey Ramsden-trained Newlands looks to be the one to side with from a pole position draw with Anton Marcus up.

The Australian-bred will relish the trip, being by Epsom Derby winner High Chaparral, although he is not all about stamina as his dam is a half-sister to Golden Slipper winner and Champion two-year-old colt in Australia, Vancouver. Newlands’ strong form gives him the edge over the rest of the field.

As a two-year-old he was staying on strongly in the Gr 3 Langerman over 1500m to finish just 1,35 lengths behind his stalwart stablemate Table Bay, from whom he was receiving just 2kg. In his seasonal reappearance in a Graduation Plate over 1600m he was receiving just 2kg from the four-year-old Whisky Baron and was beaten just 1,25 lengths. Whisky Baron went on to win his next two starts and is currently the J&B Met third favourite.

Newlands lost his chance at the start of the Lanzerac Ready To Run Stakes over 1400m when missing the break, but stayed on from last and finished just 5,5 lengths back.

Last time out he finished 2,55 lengths back in a MR 88 Handicap over 1600m off a merit rating of 90, not great form at first sight, but the winner of the race was none other than William Longsword, from whom he was receiving just 1,5kg. The latter followed up by winning the Gr 1 Grand Parade Cape Guineas in impressive style.

Newlands is the joint highest merit rated horse in the Politician Stakes on 91 and is officially joint best weighted together with Horizon and Sunset Eyes.

On collateral form Craven looks to have the measure of Horizon. The Candice Bass-Robinson-trained colt was comfortably beaten by Craven in his penultimate start and the latter had few excuses when beaten 9,3 lengths in the Cape Guineas.

Horizon is bred in the purple, being by Dynasty out of an unraced full-sister to the champion stallion Silvano. He was unlucky in the Listed Jet Master Stakes over 1600m and was rallying back at the line. The progeny of Dynasty improve with age and he will relish the step up in trip. The Bass-Robinson yard are known for bringing their horses on steadily, so Horizon can’t be written off with stable jockey Grant van Niekerk up from a good draw.

The Brett Crawford-trained Sunset Eyes was taken into the lead from a wide draw over 1400m last time and used his big action to good effect in front, only just failing to hold on. He has never been tried over further than 1400m and on pedigree there is a slight stamina doubt. He also looks held by Newlands on a line through Table Bay, although he is joint best in at the weights officially.

On jockeys bookings, the Crawford yard appear to prefer both Carbon Offset and The Great One, as Richard Fourie and Corne Orffer have kept the respective rides.

Carbon Offset, who is by Gimmethegreenlight and is a half-brother to Gr 1 winner Forest Indigo, was keen in front last time when fading over 1600m in a handicap. However, he had stayed on to win the previous time in a 1600m handicap when covered up in the running and comfortably beat Summer Sky, who went on to beat Sunset Eyes. The form of Carbon Offset’s last win has worked out well, but from a wide draw on Saturday the cover he appears to need won’t be easy to find and his keen antics last time don’t augur well for the step up in trip. He is also officially 1,5kg under sufferance with the best in.

The Great One can hardly be separated from Horizon on the form of his win over 1400m at Durbanville in his penultimate start, although he was subsequently never in the race in the Lanzerac Ready To Run Stakes. The Nadeem colt should relish the step up in trip, but is officially 1kg under sufferance with the best in.

The Justin Snaith-trained Strathdon hasn’t run since early November when beaten 5,3 lengths by William Longsword over 1600m, when receiving just 0,5kg. Therefore, he is not far behind Newlands on form and confirming that is a line through a horse called Union Jack. He is by Silvano so should be improving all the time and he will relish the step up in trip. He is a dark horse and is officially only 0,5kg under sufferance with the best in too. He has a good draw of three and Weichong Marwing is an interesting booking.

The Snaith-trained King Of The Rally finished just 3,25 lengths behind Cape Guineas runner up Gold Standard in a maiden over 1600m in October. However, Gold Standard didn’t get out of third gear and furthermore King Of The Rally was receiving 4kg from the horse he beat in the Guineas Plate in PE by 0,25 lengths and the latter, Pacific Spirit, was then beaten 7,8 lengths in the Cape Guineas.

Ollivander improved over 1800m last time, just failing from a wide draw, and is a Silvano from the Bass-Robinson yard who should be continually improving. However, on form-lines he has his work cut out and looks the yard second string.

The Slade, a half-brother by Philanthropist to Gr 1-winner Afrikaburn, is an interesting runner as he beat Craven in a handicap over 1600m when receiving only 1,5kg and is a galloping type who should enjoy this course and distance.

However, he was flattered by the 1,5 length margin he finished behind William Longsword in the Sealangor over 1600m as the latter was clearly below par on the day.

The latter trio mentioned are all officially 1,5kg under sufferance with the best in. It all points to Newlands winning this important Derby trial.

By David Thiselton

The Pick 6 at Saturday’s Gr 1 L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate meeting will be a popular bet and should attract a massive pool. And, against the norm, it does not appear hard to catch at first sight.

Whisky Baron looks hard to beat in the first leg, the Gr 2 Glorious Goodwood Peninsula Handicap over 1800m, and Newlands and Bela-Bela are possible Pick 6 bankers too in the Gr 3 Cartier Politician Stakes over 1800m and the Gr 1 Maine Chance Farms Paddock Stakes over 1800m respectively.

In the big one the duo of Legal Eagle and Marinaresco look hard to oppose.

The biggest hurdles look to be the last two legs, the Gr 3 BMW Chairman’s Cup over 3200m and a Conditions Plate over 1400m for fillies and mares.

However, as soon as one of the “meeting bankers” are beaten, the dividends become lucrative on these big racedays.

This is what makes the Pick 6 such an intriguing bet.

Therefore, the shrewd might be burning the midnight oil studying those last two legs in order to narrow down their choices there, while at the same time attempting to find one or two who can upset in the seemingly easier legs.

Last year, for example, Light The Lights turned out in retrospect to be a good bet in the Peninsula at odds of 10/1. Gelding had settled and improved him and as one who had always been blessed with plenty of ability he was cherry ripe to deliver. He duly did so.

Smart Call, in retrospect, was also a good thing in the 2016 Paddock Stakes, where she started second favourite. Hindsight has shown the progeny of Ideal World improve continually and Smart Call had already won a Gr 1 over a middle distance the previous season as a three-year-old, the Woolavington 2000. Furthermore, she was a member of one of the best three-year-old fillies crops the country had ever seen.

Everybody becomes an expert after the race, but it is never easy to be one beforehand, especially in a bet as difficult as the Pick 6.

Nevertheless, catching the Pick 6 on a big day is the ultimate challenge and there are virtually always handsome rewards.

The beauty of the Pick 6 bet locally is that fractional betting has allowed punters to take as little as 1% of a full permutation.

This is what also makes the Pick 6 the most fun bet on a big day and probably the one worth spending the most time on.

By David Thiselton

Grant van Niekerk, not normally a jockey who likes to think too much about tactics beforehand, has been giving a fair bit of thought to how he and Marinaresco can floor odds-on shot Legal Eagle in the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate at Kenilworth on Saturday.

“The draw (ten out of 11) is a bit of a problem and it’s going to be tough to get a nice position,” he admits. “I am going to give him a chance but I don’t want to be too far back.

“Marinaresco loves to be switched off early when he doesn’t like a lot of pressure on him. But he finishes strongly so I am not going to change anything.”

The horse has less than half a length to find on Green Point running. Can he do it? “I hope so. He is capable of beating Legal Eagle and he probably needed his run last time but he will be right come Saturday.

“They went really fast in the Green Point and that brought out the best in my horse so I am hoping that they go a similar sort of pace. We will be fighting it out.”

In the Maine Chance Farms Paddock Stakes Silver Mountain has almost a length and a half to find with Bela-Bela. What chance has she got of reversing the form? “She is doing very well. Whether she will see out the 1 800m I don’t know but she switches off in a race and she is going to be finishing very strongly.”

In both races the rising star is up against Anton Marcus, four times champion and rated one of the best jockeys in the world. What does van Niekerk make of his opponent?

“It’s very tough riding against him – he is different class. I don’t want to be too far off him this time because when Anton skips you it is hard to catch him.”

By Michael Clower

High-flying apprentice Lyle Hewitson has made merry over the festive season and his win on the Greyville turf on New Year’s Day aboard the Paul Peter-trained Gauteng raider Fort Ember in the Flamboyant Stakes was the third Gr 3 winner in the space of a calendar week.

On Old Year’s Day Hewitson won the Gr 3 Lebelo Sprint over 1000m at Turffontein on the Mike Azzie-trained Rivarine and on “Boxing Day” he won the Gr 3 Christmas Handicap over 1600m on the Greyville turf aboard the Sean Tarry-trained Rikitikitana. Furthermore, Hewitson rode a treble at the New Year Day’s meeting.

The Flamboyant Stakes saw another Graded race success for the increasingly prominent sire Elusive Fort. The four-year-old Fort Ember was off the track for a year due to a racing rule relating to a legal wrangle. She had finished sixth in the Gr 1 Thekwini as a two-year-old in her third career start. She came back at the beginning of this season to win three on the trot between 1400m and 1600m before running a 1,7 length fourth in the Gr 2 Ipi Tombe Stakes over 1600 and a close second in a Conditions Plate over 1800m.

The connections, KG Bakos, GM Bakos, I Levitan and Peter himself, were confident of success in the Flamboyant and she shortened into 3-1 second favourite.

The robust filly has a lovely, elastic-like action and Hewitson took her up into second place from a tricky draw of nine in the 13 horse field.

In the running she sat one wide behind a slow pace set by Littleblacknumber. She was a bit green throughout the turn, but was nice and relaxed and turned for home full of running. She shot into the lead and the 18-10 favourite Heaps Of Fun, who had sat in the box seat inside of her, couldn’t go with her. It was left to Impala Lily, Dawn Calling and last year’s winner Olma to chase her home. Impala Lily got within two lengths to finish second. Dawn Calling was a further 3,3 lengths back in third, touching off Olma by a head. Olma was a bit keen early from a wide draw and her good turn of foot was also blunted by the slow pace. However, she confirmed form virtually exactly with Lala from last year’s race, the latter finishing a two length runner up last year and fifth this year, 2,25 lengths behind Olma.

The race was marred by Miss Minver breaking a leg and she had to be euthanized. Jockey Morne Winnaar stood up after the incident, but was booked off his remaining rides. Hewitson thus picked up the ride on the Dean Kanemeyer-trained three-year-old Mambo In Seattle gelding Mr O’Neill, who at last displayed some of the ability he has always been known to possess by winning a MR 70 Handicap over 1600m in good fashion.

Peter and Hewitson had earlier combined to win from a wide draw in fluent style on the Gauteng raider Blue Berry Pie in a 1400m maiden for fillies and mares on the turf.

There was an eyecatching win at the meeting for the Gareth van Zyl-trained and Brian Burnard-owned Onsie, who is a typically progressive daughter of Ideal World. In a MR 66 Handicap for fillies and mares over 2000m on the turf, she jumped from a wide draw of 15 under Muzi Yeni and had to be content to run three wide the whole way. However, this did not stop her finding plenty in the straight and she won going away by 5,5 lengths from Fashion Talk and Good Grace. She was only running off a 75 merit rating, so still has a lot to prove before the SA Champions Season, but is well regarded by the yard and is going the right way.

Yeni also scored on the Lowen Denysschen-trained Pure Valor in a MR 86 Handicap over 2000m, a race which had a thrilling finish.

On Saturday Rivarine had looked a sitter in the Lebelo Sprint, a handicap, as he had just been touched off by Green Pepper over this trip in his previous start when giving the latter 7,5kg. He was running off a 98 merit rating in Saturday’s race, while Green Pepper had meanwhile risen to a 106 rating. Rivarine, who is by Var out of the  J&B Met-winning filly River Jetez,  “ricocheted” away from the pack in the closing stages, ducking from the outside all the way to the inside, but he was so well clear it did not matter. He finished 2,25 lengths ahead of the runner up, the progressive three-year-old Great Britain filly Queen Laurie. The latter will pay to follow as she was 3kg under sufferance on official merit ratings. Her Grant Maroun-trained stablemate Wrecking Ball made it a one-two-three for three-year-olds.

By David Thiselton

Bela-Bela looks set to win the second Gr 1 of her career in the Maine Chance Farms Paddock Stakes over 1800m at Kenilworth on Saturday, but beyond her it looks to be one of the most competitive renewals in recent times and none of her eleven opponents can be written off.

Bela-Bela showed in her seasonal reappearance in a Conditions Plate over 1400m she retains all of her considerable class. On Saturday from a good draw of six, in the supporting feature to the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate, she will be hard to beat under Anton Marcus over her likely ideal trip.

Safe Harbour is the shortest priced three-year-old in the race. In the Gr 1 WSB Cape Fillies Guineas she was cut down late by Just Sensual. This long-striding daughter of Gr 1 SA Derby and Gr 1 Daily News 2200 winner Elusive Fort should enjoy the step up in trip on pedigree and seems to have thrived in Cape Town. She would have had enough time to recover from her first two Cape Town starts, which included victory in the R2,5million Lanzerac Ready To Run Stakes over 1400m. Weichong Marwing keeps the ride and they have a plum draw of two.

Sail jumped from a wide draw of 13 in the Cape Fillies Guineas and was taken into a handy position. She was overtaken by two or three in the straight, but was fighting back at the line, giving the impression she would stay this trip. Her dam Cutty Sark, by Fort Wood, won over 1400m and produced the decent sprinter by Seventh Rock, Rock On Baby. However, Sail’s sire Philanthropist did win a Gr 3 over 1900m. Unfortunately, Sail has another tough draw of ten.

Final Judgement by Judpot had to be eased when squeezed out between the rail and another horse in the Cape Fillies Guineas and she then shifted outward which cost her more ground. However, she then used long strides to make up ground and under the circumstances finished a decent 4,35 length eighth. She has the same draw of seven here.

Whose That Girl by Gitano Hernando was running on well from near last in the Cape Fillies Guineas when she was completely taken out. She still managed to come back to run a 5,35 length tenth. Three weeks later she converted favouritism when well weighted in a Graduation Plate over 1600m, running on well again, so should get the trip. She is well drawn in four with in-form MJ Byleveld up, and is likely better than her 90 merit rating suggests.

Among the older horses Chevauchee, an Australian-bred by High Chaparral, has always possessed a lot of class. Her career has had one or two interruptions and she now gets a chance at last to prove how good she is. On pedigree and running style she should get this trip.

She failed to win the Listed Jet Master Stakes over 1600m last time in a small field, despite officially being 0,5kg better off with the 90 merit rated winner Fifty Cents. However, the latter was subsequently supplemented for the Queen’s Plate. Furthermore, Chevauchee was likely too handy in the Jet Master Stakes and now has her third run after a layoff. She is likely to be dropped out from a wide draw and her supporters will be hoping to see her produce a strong finish under Greg Cheyne and defy her 98 merit rating.

Tahini finished a close third in the Gr 2 Ipi Tombi Challenge in her penultimate start over 1600m at Turffontein when staying on late and earlier had a victory over Cape Fillies Guineas third-placed Querari Falcon. The form of the Ipi Tombe has been franked and being by Silvano she should be improving. In her first Cape start over the Paddock Stakes course and distance she wasn’t disgraced finishing 5,55 lengths behind the classy Whisky Baron when receiving just 0,5kg. This small filly is drawn well in five and S’Manga Khumalo is up, but she will have to step up again.

Nightingale was a touch unlucky in last season’s Woolavington 2000, but still managed a strong-finishing 1,85 length third. Bela-Bela probably won that race easier than the margin suggests, but Nightingale will be improving being by Silvano and looks to have enjoyed a good preparation. She finished well with long strides for second in the Gr 3 Victress Stakes over the 1800m Paddock Stakes course and distance last time out. She now has her third run after a layoff from a tricky draw of nine.

However, stable jockey Grant van Niekerk has opted to ride another Silvano filly Silver Mountain, who needs little introduction and has been priced up second favourite. She could be a big threat from a draw of three as she should start enjoying this trip this season.

The Victress Stakes was won by the honest Royal Air Force filly Goodtime Girl and Gavin Lerena will help her overcome a high draw of eleven.

Star Express finished 1,35 lengths behind third-placed Bela-Bela in last year’s Paddock Stakes and in her first run for ten months last time she finished just 0,4 lengths behind Bela-Bela over 1400m at level weights, a fine effort. However, she obviously hasn’t enjoyed an ideal preparation.

Icy Fire was staying on in the Victress for a 3,25 length fifth but looks held.

The prestigious race is important for stud value and will provide an intriguing curtain raiser for the Queen’s Plate.

By David Thiselton