Legal Eagle and Anton Marcus may look well-nigh impregnable in tomorrow’s L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate but the recent history of the country’s top mile race suggests they are odds-on to get beat.

Four of the last five favourites have bitten the dust and no five-year-old has managed to win the race since Mother Russia six years ago. “We haven’t been that hard on Legal Eagle since his last win but he is fit enough and well enough to do it,” says Sean Tarry.

Marinaresco (Nkosi Hlophe)

Indeed there is only one reason why his horse shouldn’t repeat his victory of 12 months ago and that is local hero Marinaresco, a four-year-old like all the last four winners. In theory he shouldn’t win. Apart from anything else he is drawn badly and needs further. He also has nearly half a length to find on Green Point running but his stable is now in better form, his jockey is ultra-talented and he fights like a terrier.

The betting suggests it’s a two-horse race. You can get anything between 14-1 and 66-1 about the other nine. The in-form Brett Crawford, successful with Futura two years ago only to lose the horse in an owner fall-out, has two solid place-possible contenders in last year’s fourth Captain America and Sail South as well as the likely pacemaker.

French Navy has the ability – only the favourite is rated higher – and at 16-1 he appears to have been overlooked.  Abashiri almost certainly needs another run but The Conglomerate could well get into the shake-up despite once again being drawn in the bush.

Not that many three-year-olds run in the Queen’s Plate but the last five to do so have produced a winner, a second and a third. Seemingly Bold Rex is a fair bit better than his Premier run would suggest (Mathew de Kock: “He definitely should have won – he was very unlucky”). You can get 4.2-1 a place and you could do worse.

Marcus and Grant van Niekerk may already have fought it out in the Maine Chance Farms Paddock Stakes by this stage and again it’s not a race where you should take out a bond to put your house on the favourite. Four of the last six have been beaten.

Bela-Bela gets the vote only because the connections of Silver Mountain seem so concerned about last season’s runaway Cape Fillies Guineas winner lasting out a trip over which she has yet to race. Her best form – and, don’t forget, she didn’t thrive in Durban – suggests those concerns might well prove groundless.

But this is no two-horse race and every time anyone asks Justin Snaith about Bela-Bela he mentions Star Express who is about ten times the price. Safe Harbour (7-1 best) justified significant market support in the Lanzerac Ready To Run and was only pipped on the post when equally well backed in the Fillies Guineas.

Nightingale just might make the frame but Goodtime Gal beat her last time and the trip is in favour of Chevauchee who at 20-1 could be the best outsider.

By Michael Clower

Legal Eagle’s win in last year’s L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate “answered quite a few questions” for trainer Sean Tarry, who “realised he’s as effective over a ‘mile’ as over 2000m”.

Sean Tarry (Liesl King)

If he wins the R1.5-million race on Saturday, his name will be mentioned alongside such great horses as Jet Master, Wolf Power and Sledgehammer, who won the race in consecutive years, as well as Pocket Power, winner of the Queen’s Plate four years running. Tarry, who as normal was cautious in his assessment, said: “He’s doing well and has got quite a bit in his favour.”

The weight-for-age conditions will suit the Greys Inn gelding. He is weighted eight points or four lengths superior to Marinaresco on current merit ratings, he has a good draw at No 3, can perform off any pace, from the front or off them and will be partnered by a jockey who knows him well in Anton Marcus.

“I have a healthy respect for Marinaresco, who is on the up and improving quickly. But I do believe Legal Eagle has room for improvement on his Green Point Stakes run. It’s just a matter of where Marinaresco is in his preparation. It’s hard to draw a comparison.”

Legal Eagle beat Marinaresco by 0.40 lengths in that event, run over the same course and distance as the Queen’s Plate, although Marcus said afterwards, “He was running on empty.”

Tarry says: “Yes, he needed that run but not desperately. He may have hit the front a little soon and any horse is going to empty out if asked too early. But you can’t over analyse every move, you’ll just drive yourself mad.

“To simplify things, that was Legal Eagle’s second run after a rest. He hadn’t been seen out for a long time before his comeback and there’s got to be ongoing improvement.

“There have been no issues with his preparation, it’s gone pretty smoothly.”

Tarry is one person who does not necessarily see the Queen’s Plate as a boat race between Legal Eagle and Marinaresco. “I think people have forgotten about French Navy,” he said, referring to his other runner in the Grade 1 race.

French Navy (Nkosi Hlophe)

“He’s as good, if not better, than the other runners (barring the top two) we face and he’ll be finishing strongly. I can never regard any race as a match race – if it was that easy we’d all have millions in the bank.

“French Navy never had a good programme last season, things didn’t go his way. I’m expecting a good run from him.”

Weichong Marwing has ridden French Navy in his last four starts and will ride the Count Dubois gelding again.

Tarry believes Safe Harbour is the better of his two in the Maine Chance Farms Paddock Stakes (Grade 1). “She’s doing well, enjoying Cape Town and she’s got a chance,” he commented.

Safe Harbour, a three-year-old, has drawn at No 2 and comes in off a close-up second in the Cape Fillies Guineas behind Just Sensual.

His other runner is year-older Tahini, who did not do as well in her Cape debut, when sixth in an 1800m Allowance Plate last month.

S’manga Khumalo is booked for Tahini, while Weichong Marwing will ride Safe Harbour.

TABNews

Top-class four-year-old Marinaresco nearly gave Legal Eagle a fright in the 1600m Green Point Stakes at Kenilworth last month and there is a strong possibility he can beat the ruling Equus Horse Of The Year in the R1,5-million L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate over the same trip on Saturday.

Trainer Candice Bass-Robinson believes the distance is no problem for Marinaresco: “Obviously, his best trip is 2000m but he’s doing really well and has come on from his last run. He’s nice and strong so will handle the ‘mile’ well enough.”

“I don’t think much of the draw,” she said. “This horse just never gets a draw. It might not be a big field, but it would be nice for once to jump out and park off instead of coming from off the pace.”

Marinaresco (Liesl King)

“It will depend on how the race pans out but I’m expecting a big run from him,” she said before adding: “Legal Eagle is not an easy horse to beat over a ‘mile’.”

Bass-Robinson has three runners in the main supporting feature, the R1-million Maine Chance Farms Paddock Stakes. Her trio is headed up by Silver Mountain, who is favourite behind Bela-Bela.

The Silvano filly’s three-year-old career went a little pear-shaped after an impressive Sizzling Summer Season at the Cape last year and while Bass-Robinson believes “Bela-Bela is the one to beat, if Silver Mountain sees out the distance, she’ll be right there”.

Silver Mountain was making her comeback from a rest of 5½ months when staying on for fourth behind Bela-Bela in a 1400m sprint-up last month, but Bass-Robinson was happy to make excuses. “She was drawn badly and they went so slowly that she couldn’t make up the ground from the back of the field.”

Silver Mountain, winner of the Cape Fillies Guineas last season, has drawn at No 3 and jockey Grant van Niekerk can slot her in handily so she won’t have as much ground to make up.

Nightingale and Whose That Girl are her other two runners. “Nightingale is doing well and will enjoy the trip but she’s just off the top two fillies ability-wise,” she said. “Whose That Girl has improved a lot and is also very well, but it’ll be tough for her, taking on decent older fillies. If she can sneak a place we’ll be happy.”

Bass-Robinson is also hoping for a good run from Horizon in the Cartier Politician Stakes over 1800m and believes her other runner in the Grade 3 race, Olivander, “could be in the money”.

TABNews

Justin Snaith and his team have put a lot of work into their big L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate string and he is hoping for just rewards.

Snaith has gained a reputation for landing multiple winners on big race days, which included five winners at this meeting last year and a world record-breaking eight winners at last year’s J&B Met meeting.

Snaith has runners in all ten races. He commented on all of them.

Lineker (Nkosi Hlophe)

First race, Workrider’s Maiden over 1200m: “These are amateur events and impossible to judge, but I am strong here. There is not much between Over Drive and Secret Idea, but Secret Idea is possibly the choice as he was disappointing last time and I expect improvement. He is the right type for a Workrider’s race as he travels well and is an easy ride. Varzen should also improve and could be in the shake up.”

Second race, Maiden Juvenile Plate for fillies over 1000m (Snaith had decided at the beginning of last season to no longer push his two-year-olds, but has made an exception this season for those two-year-olds who qualify for the R1 million two-year-old race on Sun Met day and they include his two contenders in this race): “Lacerta has shown good improvement and I expect her to go very close. Grizabell doesn’t have natural speed, but her work has been good and she could be a quartet horse.”

Third race, a MR 86 Handicap over 1600m (Snaith has the topweight Lineker, who ran a 1,5 length second to subsequent Grand Parade Cape Guineas winner William Longsword last time out on December 6): “Lineker came through and beat the rest of the field quite easily last time, so I think he will beat Union Jack again despite the weight turnaround. I am more worried about the rest of the field. It’s very competitive, but considering the form of that race he has to be in the shake up and could be the one to beat.”

Fourth race, the Gr 2 Glorious Goodwood Peninsula Handicap over 1800m: “It’s My Turn has only had one grass gallop since the July, so to finish second last time to Whisky Baron was a very good run. This is a much better trip, but the Met is his main aim. I am going under the radar with him until then, but he should run a good race. It Is Written is probably better on softer ground and we will see where we are with him, but this is maybe a bit strong. Krambambuli had a very good run last time (2^nd in the Sun International Premier Trophy over course and distance) and I expect a similar type of race. Star Chestnut will get the trip and is consistent. He could be the dark horse, but it’s very hard at this level.”

Fifth race, the Gr 3 Politician Stakes over 1800m: “Strathdon has been gelded and is a horse who I think has something to come. He has a beautiful stride and can run, he could surprise. King Of Rally has been running in PE, but is a very good looking horse and we will see where he stands.”

Star Chestnut (Nkosi Hlophe)

Sixth race, the Gr 1 Maine Chance Farms Paddock Stakes: “Bela-Bela had a very good comeback, I didn’t think I had her spot on, so I am expecting a good run here and am quietly confident. But watch out for Star Express. She is a 2000m horse and to have run so close to Bela-Bela over 1400m last time was a very big run. She can run and could even upset. Bela-Bela is the stable elect and is theoretically the better filly, but Star Express could be right there and if there are any hiccups with the grey filly she could win.”

Seventh race, the Gr 1 L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate: “Fifty Cents won a stakes race last time, although he was a bit fortunate, and it is always great to be part of this unbelievable race. The owners will enjoy the moment.”

Eight race, the Gr 3 BMW Chairman’s Cup over 3200m, “Ovidio has a very big weight, but is a good stayer and there is no alternative race. He can carry 62,5kg, these staying races are not strong. Arezzo has been a bit disappointing, but gets the distance, so could surprise with his light weight.”

Ninth race, a Conditions Plate over 1400m for fillies and mares: “Red Light Girl ran in the Cape Fillies Guineas last time, but is much better suited to 1400m. With just 51kg on her back she has got to be a runner and should be in the shake-up. Fear Not has a lot of problems, so 1400m might be better for her now considering her niggles, although theoretically it’s on the short side. But it’s a very competitive race. ”

Tenth race,  a MR 88 Handicap over 1200m, “Cuban Emerald won well last time and is up to the new merit rating he has been given. Piere Strydom suits him well. Mutzi won a good race last time and I expect him to run well. He could be in the trifectas and quartets. I am a little worried the handicapper has reached Captain Courteous, but he was unlucky last time. There is not much in it, but Cuban Emerald could be the stable elect.”

By David Thiselton

Five out of province trainers will be involved in the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate meeting and they have some good winning chances.

In the big one the Sean Tarry-trained title holder Legal Eagle has not been beaten in four career attempts at a mile and that includes three Graded weight for age miles. Tarry has a lot of respect for Marinaresco having taken note of his unbelievable run in the Vodacom Durban July, but Legal Eagle will likely be able to dictate considering his handy style of running, his good draw and the world class Anton Marcus in the saddle. Therefore, he is going to be very hard to beat.

Legal Eagle (Liesl King)

Most are viewing it as a two horse race, but another out of province runner, the Mike Azzie-trained Abashiri is the one horse of the rest who has the ability to upset. The Triple Crown hero had a very tough task t the weights in the July, but ran a commendable race, and after a deserved holiday he now has his third run after a layoff. The trip is on the sharp side, but he has three things in his favour, a pole position draw, the brilliant Gavin Lerena aboard and he is a son of Go Deputy, whose progeny notably come into their own during their four-year-old season.

Tarry also runs the classy French Navy, who would prefer further and this is a likely preparation for the Sun Met, but he is capable of a place especially with Weichong Marwing up. Mike de Kock runs the three-year-old Bold Rex, who has a tough task on official merit ratings, but he is very much a progressive sort and is one of the dark horses from a good draw of six under Randall Simons.

Dennis Drier has recently won the Gr 1 Maine Chance Paddock Stakes with the brilliant Beach Beauty and his charge this year Sail has a definite shout as an improving sort who was staying on late in the Gr 1 WSB Cape Fillies Guineas, although she has a tough draw.

Tarry has a fine chance in the Paddock Stakes with Safe Harbour, a long-striding three-year-old who could be the chief danger to the ultra-classy local horse Bela-Bela. Tarry’s other charge Tahini is improving, as Silvano’s do, but is up against it on her bare form.

Tarry’s first-timer in race 2, Celestina, is by Kahal out of a Jet Master maiden. The champion trainer has had a fine record with two-year-old first-timers over the last two seasons.

Chestnuts ‘n Pearls (Nkosi Hlophe)

De Kock’s runner here Rumbavar is significantly having her second start as she is a full-sister to a filly who won by over five lengths second time out.

De Kock’s runner in the Gr 3 Politician Stakes, Coyote, looks to have his work cut out on formlines, although being by Fort Wood he might enjoy the step up in trip.

De Kock has a fine chance of landing the Gr 3 BMW Chairmans Cup with his talented stayer Smart Mart, who looks the one to beat over the suitable 3200m trip.

In Race 9 Drier’s Chestnuts N Pearls is officially well weighted over an ideal trip, but she has not run since last June and her merit rating was achieved in a two-year-old Gr 1 which hasn’t worked out too well.

Johan Janse van Vuuren’s sole runner on the day, She’s A Giver, is a most interesting contender in that same race as she will likely relish the step down to 1400m and is well drawn, although with Simons up she does have to carry 1kg over her set 51kg.

By David Thiselton