Category Archives: Racing News

Pressonregardless can mow them down

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David Thiselton

A Pinnacle Stakes race over 1600m is the headliner at Turffontein Standside today and the classy Pressonregardless looks the one to side with.

The David Nieuwenhuizen-trained five-year-old Lancaster Bomber gelding is a beautifully long-striding sort who is perfectly suited to the Standside course and he should be able to mow them down after finding a good position from a plum draw of two under leading jockey Craig Zackey. Pressonregardless is the best weighted male in the race and is only 2kg under sufferance with the best weighted runner, the filly Kisshoten. Chronicle King has proven class and this 114-rated Gr 2 winner comes off a good win over 1700m. He has a tricky draw of six in the seven horse field but should make a bold bid. Sunset Riot has won his last two starts over 1400m with ease and as his Captain Al dam Fragrant Miss won over this trip, so he should see it out. He has a tricky draw of five but the 1,5kg gender claim of Mickaelle Michel will help. He is officially 3kg under sufferance with Kisshoten. Musical Score is distance suited and has the class to be competitive under Keagan de Melo from a middle draw of four. Kisshoten has not been disgraced in her last two starts in a Gr 3 and a Gr 1 over course and distance against the girls, finishing a 1,40 length third and a 7,30 length fourth to the dominant winner Double Grand Slam, so from pole position and being best in at the weights, she can’t be ignored. Willy Meet Again is second best in at the weights and is a decent sort who could dictate, so she could be dangerous. The other runner Skittle Skies has a hard task at the weights.

In the first leg of the Pick 6 over 1400m Sendai ran a cracker last time over this trip, finishing a 1,90 length third, and has a chance in this uninspiring maiden from a middle draw of six out of 11 under Muzi Yeni.  Nebraska has run a couple of fair races over this trip category and has a chance from draw five. Winding Power has a tricky draw of eight but has the ability to earn. Cronus could earn a cheque in this line up. Brave Waam! should enjoy the step up in trip and could improve.

The second leg over 1400m is also an uninspiring maiden and Purple Rain makes plenty of appeal. She finished second in a three horse field last time, but she should relish this step up in trip and is drawn in pole with Craig Zackey up for the Sean Tarry yard. Savara’s Princess has a tricky draw but if repeating her last start she has a chance.  Master’s Rose has been thereabouts in her last couple of starts and has a fair draw. Miss River Dancer has run two fair races and on  pedigree should enjoy the step up in trip. Greenandgold has run two fair races and should be in the shake up.

In the seventh race over 2000m Scarlet O’Hara has run three good races and the form of her last run, a 7,50 length fourth to Curious Girl in the Oaks Trial, has been franked as the latter went on to win the Gr 2 SA Derby. Future Date is an honest sort who is coming into her own as a four-year-old, being by Futura, and she should be in the shake up. Free In Seattle has the ability to be right there and it should pan out well for her from draw two under Richard Fourie. Kissing Machine will enjoy stepping back to middle distances and could be a runner from pole position. Poplar Park has a 100% record in two starts over course and distance so should do well if able to overcome a wide draw under in form apprentice Blaine Marx-Jacobson.

In the eighth over 2000m Sand Script won well second time out when stepped up to 1700m and Fourie is now up. Future Gamble also enjoyed the step up in trip last time and has a chance of following up. Silver Flare should be in the shake up if able to overcome a wide draw. Rosy Lemon can never be ignored over this trip. Special Star should finish on top of Rosy Lemon on the form of their last meeting.

In the ninth over 1800m Real Stunner has the form and the ability to go close if able to overcome a wide draw and Richard Fourie aboard will help her cause.  Orange County is interesting over a slight step up in trip being by Flower Alley, with the detractor being she is out of a Var mare. Zip Code has the ability to earn here from a fair draw as she is capable of running on well if getting cover. Full Go is capable of being right there if able to overcome a wide draw and she is only half-a-kilogram under sufferance. Sky Pillar Rock disappointed last time but can do better.

In the third race over 1400m Impressive went close when stepped up to this trip second time out and can beat home Doesyourmotherknow, who has a very similar form line over the same distance category. These two fillies are drawn three and two respectively and should fight it out.

In the first race over 1160m Gathering Winter is the one to beat in this uninspiring field, although she does have draw one, which can be disadvantageous down the straight, so Wispinthewillow must also be considered.

In the second race over 1400m Sherriff Bill Brown ran a fair race last time and should enjoy the step up in trip, but won’t have it easy from a wide draw.  Lance Attack has shown some ability and must be considered. Sutter’s Mill is a first-timer by Fire Away out of a Western Winter mare who won second time out and this gelding would not need to be a star to finish prominently here.

Turffontein Standside Sunday 19 April 2026 – Comments by David Thiselton

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RACE 1

4 GATHERING WINTER 3 WISPINTHEWILLOW 5 DAD’S DREAM 2 GOD’S COUNTRY

Preview: 4 GATHERING WINTER improved last time and can earn again with a repeat. 3 WISPINTHEWILLOW can go close if repeating her penultimate start when a narrow runner up over 1200m at Turffontein Inside. 5 DAD’S DREAM has the form to be able to earn in this line up.  2 GOD’S COUNTRY could earn in this field. (4-3-5-2)

RACE 2

6 SHERIFF BILL BROWN 1 LANCE ATTACK 7 SUTTER’S MILL 8 SNAP YOUR FINGERS

Preview: 6 SHERIFF BILL BROWN ran a fair second last time and in this line up could go one better. 1 LANCE ATTACK is capable of being a threat in this line up. 7 SUTTER’S MILL is a first-timer by Fire Away out of a Western Winter mare and would not need to be a star to finish prominently here. 8 SNAP YOUR FINGERS is by Futura out of a Gr 2 winner over 2800m so is likely to need further and to get better with age but a classy pedigree could be telling in this line up. (6-1-7-8)

RACE 3

3 IMPRESSIVE 4 ONWARD 1 DOESYOURMOTHERKNOW 5 PROPHECIES

Preview: 3 IMPRESSIVE has good form and is well drawn over an ideal trip. 4 ONWARD made a fair debut and should improve over this trip being by Malmoos out of a Silvano mare. 1 DOESYOURMOTHERKNOW finished a good second last time and over the same trip category has a chance. 5 PROPHECIES improved last time over 1600m but does have a tough draw. (3-4-1-5)

RACE 4

1 SENDAI 2 NEBRASKA 3 WINDING POWER 5 CRONUS

Preview: 1 SENDAI ran a cracker last time over this trip and has a chance if able to overcome draw six out of 11.  2 NEBRASKA has run a couple of fair races over this trip category and has a chance from draw five. 3 WINDING POWER has a tricky draw of eight but has the ability to earn. 5 CRONUS could earn a cheque in this line up. (1-2-3-5)

RACE 5

10 PURPLE RAIN 3 SAVARA’S PRINCESS  5 MASTER’S ROSE 9 MISS RIVER DANCER

Preview: 10 PURPLE RAIN ran well over 1200m second time out and from pole position should go close over a step up in trip she will relish on pedigree. 3 SAVARA’S PRINCESS has a tricky draw but if repeating her last start she has a chance.  5 MASTER’S ROSE has been thereabouts in her last couple of starts and has a fair draw. 9 MISS RIVER DANCER has run two fair races and on  pedigree should enjoy the step up in trip. (10-3-5-9)

RACE 6

2 PRESSONREGARDLESS 1 CHRONICLE KING 4 SUNSET RIOT 3 MUSICAL SCORE

Preview: 2 PRESSONREGARDLESS has plenty of ability and from a plum draw should go close. 1 CHRONICLE KING has class and over an ideal trip should be right there.  4 SUNSET RIOT has won his last two starts in fine fashion and will make a bold bid. 3 MUSICAL SCORE has the ability to be in the shake up here. (2-1-4-3)

RACE 7

8 SCARLET O’HARA 1 FUTURE DATE 2 FREE IN SEATTLE 3 KISSING MACHINE

Preview: 8 SCARLET O’HARA has run three good races and the form of her run las time has been franked so she could rise above her current merit rating. 1 FUTURE DATE is an honest sort who should be in the shake up. 2 FREE IN SEATTLE has the ability to be right there. 3 KISSING MACHINE will enjoy stepping back to middle distances and could be a runner from pole position. (8-1-2-3)

RACE 8

3 SAND SCRIPT 5 FUTURE GAMBLE 8 SILVER FLARE 2 ROSY LEMON

Preview: 3 SAND SCRIPT won well second time out when stepped up to 1700m and Fourie is now up. 5 FUTURE GAMBLE enjoyed the step up in trip last time and can follow up. 8 SILVER FLARE should be in the shake up if able to overcome a wide draw. 2 ROSY LEMON can never be ignored over this trip. (3-5-8-2)

RACE 9

7 REAL STUNNER 5 ORANGE COUNTY 6 ZIP CODE 11 FULL GO

Preview: 7 REAL STUNNER has the form and the ability to go close if able to overcome a wide draw. 5 ORANGE COUNTY is interesting over a slight step up in trip being by Flower Alley, with the detractor being she is out of a Var mare. 6 ZIP CODE has the ability to earn here from a fair draw. 11 FULL GO is capable of being right there if able to overcome a wide draw and she is only half-a-kilogram under sufferance. (7-5-6-11)

Marinaresco winner of the 2017 Vodacom Durban July

July records – can any of them be broken this year?

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David Thiselton

 

The Hollywoodbets Durban July first entries are on Monday the 20th of April and “July Fever” will begin building from the first entries announcement on Wednesday April 22 until the big race on July 4.

 

One of the annual questions is whether any July records will be broken.

 

Andrew Fortune could become the oldest jockey to ever win the race, with the oldest to date probably being Piere Strydom who was 50 years old when winning on the Joey Ramsden-trained The Conglomerate in 2016.

 

The record for the youngest jockey can never be broken.

 

Frank McGrath was just 12 years old when winning the July in 1922 on the J Gard-owned and trained Collet.

 

Allan “Snowy” Reid was both the last apprentice and last teenager to ride a July winner when successful on the Fred Rickaby-trained Naval Escort in 1969.

 

Both records could potentially be equalled by leading apprentice Mxolisi Mbuto.

 

Blaine Marx-Jacobson’s current momentum makes him the favourite for the apprentice title, but only one of the records is available to him as he is already 20 years old.

 

The record for the youngest trainer cannot be broken this year as David Payne was just 24 years old when sending out the great In Full Flight to win the July in 1972.

 

Payne to this day regards In Full Flight as the best he has ever trained and a coincidence is that he lives in New South Wales in Australia, because In Full Flight’s sire was called New South Wales.

 

Payne also became the youngest to ever both ride and train a July winner, having ridden the Brian Cherry-trained Chimboraa to victory in 1968.

 

He joined Syd Garrett, who rode Goldwing and Pamphlet to victory in 1919 and 1920 respectively, before training all of Full Dress (1930), Sadri II (1941) and Left Wing (1960) to win the great race.

 

Bert Abercrombie later joined that elite club as winning rider on the Ralph Rixon-trained Jamaican Music in 1976 before training Bush Telegraph to win the race in 1987.

 

Current trainers in South Africa who have won a July as a rider include Garth Puller, Michael Roberts and Robbie Hill.

 

The record for most wins as a rider can’t be challenged this year.

 

Anton Marcus is the only one to have had five July wins and the trio on four wins are no longer riding i.e. Piere Strydom, Anthony Delpech and the late Harold “Tiger” Wright.

 

Richard Fourie could join that trio as he has had three wins.

 

The record for most wins as a trainer, held by Hall Of Fame trainer Syd Laird, cannot be caught this year either.

 

Justin Snaith and Mike de Kock have both had five July wins and can join the late great Terrance Millard on six wins, although De Kock has a joint-operation these days with son Mathew.

 

Dean Kannemeyer will be going for a fifth July win and his charge The Real Prince will be out to become the seventh dual winner and sixth back-to-back winner.

 

Lady Laidlaw’s Khaya Stables owned The Real Prince and will be going for a third victory as an owner, which is well short of the record of six July wins as an owner held by Bridget Oppenheimer, three of them in partnership with her husband Harry.

 

The Oppenheimer winners as owners were Tiger Fish (1959), King Willow (1965), Principal Boy (1975), Spanish Galliard (part-owned 1992), Greys Inn (2004), Hunting Tower (2008).

 

Of those winners the Oppenheimers bred all of them except for Spanish Galliard.

 

Harry and Bridget’s daughter Mary Slack bred the 2003 winner Dynasty and owned the 2022 winner Sparkling Water, which she bred in partnership with her daughter Jessica Jell. Jessica Jell bred the 2017 winner Marinaresco.

 

So that is a total of nine July winners for the Oppenheimer family either as owners-and-breeders or as owners or breeders.

 

Mary and Jessica can add to that record this year operating under the banner of Wilgerbosdrift Stud and Mauritzfontein Stud respectively.

 

The most prolific July-winning extended family is the Laird family.

 

Alec Laird, still training today, belongs to this July-winning dynasty. He has won it once himself as a trainer with London News (1996); his grandfather, also called Alec Laird, won it once as a jockey in 1911 on Nobleman; his great-uncle Syd Garrett won it twice as a jockey and three times as a trainer as mentioned earlier in this article and he also owned all three of the winners he trained; Alec’s Hall of Fame father Syd Laird won the big race a record seven times as a trainer with (Kerason (1961), Colorado King (1963), Java Head (1966), Sea Cottage (1967), Mazarin (1971), Yataghan (1973) and Politician (1978)); Alec’s cousins Dennis Drier and Charles Laird won it once apiece as trainers with Spanish Galliard (1992) and Hunting Tower (2007) respectively. That is 16 July wins for the family dynasty in total and 18 if Dennis Drier’s father-in-law trainer John Breval is included (King Willow (1965), Principal Boy (1975)).

 

Alec could add to the dynasty’s success this year as the trainer of the like of Gr 1 winners Fire Attack and Atticus Finch.

 

The Real Prince won last year after a 62 day layoff, the longest layoff for a winning horse since Sun Tor was off for 161 days before winning the July in 1934.

 

The record in this respect is likely held by the 1929 winner Gifted as this import from England only got off the boat on January 20 and the July was his first run in the country.

 

See It Again will be having his third run in the July this year, well short of his half-brother Do It Again’s record six appearances which included two wins, one third and three fourths. Do It Again was the best performed horse at the weights in his first four Julys, second best performed in his fifth appearance and the best-performed in his final appearance. He is undoubtedly the greatest July horse in history.

Handicappers ask for considered appraisal

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David Thiselton

The professional handicappers of South Africa have sent out a press release urging stake holders who are attending the South African Trainers Association (SANTA) handicapping workshop on Wednesday, April 15, at the TBA Sales Complex at Gosforth Park, to only consider those decisions made at the workshop that are guided by data and evidence rather than by anecdotal or observational claims.

The handicappers themselves will abstain from the Workshop “for reasons that include the avoidance of becoming persuasive to the attendees, given that all evidence suggests that the current system and its application is statistically functioning as intended and designed.”

However, they sent out the press release to ensure “that all stakeholders have access to current information ahead of policy discussions at the forthcoming SANTA held Workshop.”

It is certainly an understandable lament in South African racing that superior horses find it more difficult to rattle off a number of wins at the beginning of their careers, as they were reportedly able to do under the old Race Figure system, before being weighted according to their true ability.

However, the NHA press release pointed out the dangers of embracing a system that favours superior horses and it also pointed to the current statistics which show that three-year-olds are not at all unduly punished compared to other age groups.

Whilst, purists of any sport like to watch the best against the best, the handicappers have to operate in a way that best sustains the entire racing population as well as the players associated with it.

In the press release they referred to the Handicappers’ mandate which is “to, by handicapping, distribute the stakes pot as equitably as possible.”

They said making changes to aid better horses carried the risk of favouring big yards and effecting field sizes.

They pointed to the experiment of the “Assessment Plate” and put it under the headline of “the risk of uninformed decisions”.

A conclusion on a study of overall racing stats and a study of Assessment Plate stats was that Assessment Plates contained smaller fields and favoured superior horses and they were thus dominated by bigger yards.

The late guru analyst Jay August commented, “If the Handicapper’s assessment of the highly rated horse ex their maiden win was wrong (too high), then the stats should show that. They do not, which leads me to believe that Assessment Plates have little to do with assessment but more to do with helping superior animals to win a few races before their ability is penalised too much.’’

Moving on, three-year-olds have been shown to actually have a higher strike rate in handicap races than any other age group, which falsifies the claim they are punished unduly.

In the current season three-years have had 1448 runs and a strike rate of 13%, four-year-olds have had 2431 runs and a strike rate of 11%, five-year-olds have had 1876 runs and a strike rate of 10% and six-year-olds and older 1,398 runs and a strike rate of 7%.

Statistics have also shown that the top five yards have had 973 runs in handicaps and a strike rate of 13.6%, while they have had 1,637 runs in non-handicaps and a strike rate of 15.3%.

The handicappers are thus concerned that any further adjustment to the existing handicapping system would disproportionately benefit trainers with access to higher-quality horses. Given the limited number of handicap races available, such changes could severely disadvantage trainers outside the top ten on the trainers’ log, creating an uneven playing field and undermining competitive balance.

The Handicapping Team believes that the current system is functioning exactly as designed and the data contained the following key indicators:

Participation: Higher acceptance rates in Handicaps and Merit Rating based races.

Elimination Data: High demand for entry in premier events such as the Hollywoodbets Durban July, Golden Horse Casino Sprint, Betway Summer Cup and the Charity Mile confirm the system’s integrity at the pattern level.

Program Stability: Programmers frequently rely on Handicap formats to ensure adequate field sizes.

Open Betting Market: These races consistently produce closer finishes and a more robust betting market, which ultimately extends the racing careers of the horse population.

Competitive Density: Data indicates that the average beaten finisher in a Handicap is 3.5 lengths behind the winner, compared to 4.8 lengths in non-handicap races. This suggests the system is achieving its primary goal of narrowing the gap between competitors.

Systemic Balance: The National Merit Ratings Update continues to ensure a balanced distribution of ratings across all age groups, preventing structural bias within the population – the handicappers believed any skewing of the current table which shows 45% of horses to be rated 74 and higher (as compared to 2019 when only 27% were 74 and higher) would result in programming difficulties.

Merit Rating Appeals: Since the cancellation of the previous guidelines in 2019, Handicappers have assessed approximately 188,500 performances. Remarkably, during this entire review period, only 14 appeals were lodged of which 11 were dismissed.

They added this was despite operating under some constraints, which included:

The program is currently already skewed towards higher rated horses as there has been a reduction in true handicaps and an increase in merit-rated band races (Pinnacles, A, B, C and D Stakes Races, Middle Stakes Races). These races are not true handicaps and favour horses at the top of each rating band. This creates a structural bias with many horses entering races where they have little chance of success. The handicapper then face a dilemma, with an example being a horse that does not earn because it was at the bottom of a merit rating band and ran accordingly, but does not get dropped in the merit ratings, because at the weights it still did actually run to its rating. Earners, on the other hand, might be at the top of the bands but are not unduly punished because they were firstly at a weight advantage and, furthermore, merit rated restrictions are placed on these races anyway. This results in a cycle where winning horses continue to win, while others are relegated to “field fillers.”

They pointed out that owners and trainers often equate competitiveness with victory, but as there are more horses than handicap races, the handicappers are judged against an unrealistic benchmark i.e. in every season there will be many horses (1365 to be exact for the current season if only handicap races are considered) who will have the same number of career wins that they began the season with, no matter which handicap system was adopted.

In summary the handicappers overall message was that any changes made should be accompanied by a factual analysis that supports it being workable considering the horse population and the nature of South African racing in which turnover and owner participation are important considerations.

The press release can be read on the nha.co.za website under Press Releases.

Bass-Robinson Horses (Liesl King)

Changes to the merit ratings

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David Thiselton
The new merit ratings are out from the Gr 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic and the handicappers look to have largely managed to get the merit ratings back to the way they had wanted them after the TAB Gauteng Guineas.
The original line horse used for the Gauteng Guineas was Tin Pan Alley, who was rated 117, whilst the appeal panel decided a more appropriate line horse was the 108-rated Grand Empire.
However,  both of those horses are now Gr 1 winners, with Grand Empire having won the SA Classic on Saturday by a short-head from Trust, and Tin Pan Alley having slammed some of the best in the country by 1,75 lengths when winning the Gr 1 Wilgerbosdrift HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes over 1600m.
The appeal panel’s overall rating of the race thus looked to be too low.
The handicappers have managed to use the evidence from the SA Classic, as well as other factors, to get Trust back to the merit rating they had him on after the Guineas i.e 119 and have changed the ratings of the other runners accordingly.
The ratings look to now have a realistic look to them.
Meanwhile, Tin Pan Alley has been raised ten points to 128 after his impressive Horse Chestnut Stakes victory.
Hazy Dazy remains unchanged on 117 after her cosy win in the Gr 1 Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic.
The NHA press release explained all of the changes to the Gr 1 runners:
WILGERBOSDRIFT H F OPPENHEIMER HORSE CHESTNUT STAKES (GRADE 1)
Three-year-old TIN PAN ALLEY has been awarded a revised merit rating of 128, up from 117, following his emphatic victory in the Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift H F Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes run at weight-for-age over 1600m at Turffontein standside track on Saturday.
In assessing the race, the Handicappers identified the consistent TEXAS RED (third place) as the line horse, leaving his rating unchanged at 119.
TIN PAN ALLEY’S commanding win over 1600m on a yielding track dispelled any doubts about his aptitude for the trip. The Handicappers had already considered him suitable for the distance, having used him as the line horse in the original TAB Gauteng Guineas ratings. However, the TAB Gauteng Guineas was subsequently reduced to a level of 109 following an appeal.
The outcome of the TAB Gauteng Guineas appeal has had significant knock-on effects. The three-year-old cohort that dominated the Guineas was reduced from a level of 121 to 109. TIN PAN ALLEY, who finished fourth in that race, has now gone on to win a Grade 1 WFA event.
Effectively, based on the reduced Guineas level, his performance rating has risen from 104 to 128 in just 28 days. While the Handicappers clearly believe TIN PAN ALLEY improved in this race, the improvement would reasonably be measured from 117 to 128 based on the Handicapper’s original assessment of the Gauteng Guineas.
When rating the Guineas, the Handicappers considered the pecking order of the field, the quality of the race as a Grade 2 event, and fairness from a handicapping perspective to ensure horses would meet on proper handicap terms in future contests. The appeal outcome created distortions, including the subsequent reduction of TRUST’S rating from 119 to 108 – a decision made two runs after his Grade 2 Jackpot City Dingaans victory, which the Handicappers regard as contrary to the principles of handicapping.
TIN PAN ALLY’S performance in this WFA race highlights the strength of this year’s three-year-old crop.
No other horses received upward adjustments in this race. COSMIC SPEED’S rating was reduced slightly, from 124 to 122.
HKJC WORLD POOL SA CLASSIC (GRADE 1)
GRAND EMPIRE, winner of the Grade 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic over 1800m, has had his official merit rating raised from 108 to 120.
The Handicappers unanimously agreed that runner-up TRUST reaffirmed the 119 performance he achieved in the Grade 2 Jackpot City Dingaans last November, where he defeated the 118-rated JAN VAN GOYEN. The Dingaans level remains the officially adopted benchmark for that race.
In the assessment of this race, the Handicappers concluded that TRUST once again performed to that same level of 119. TRUST was used to that mark and was accordingly adjusted to 119.
A collateral line of form with TIN PAN ALLY’S win in the Wilgerbosdrift H F Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes (Grade 1) indicates that the Grade 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic is undervalued, however, the Handicappers do not practise retrospective ratings.
Furthermore, the TRUST appeal panel concluded with the following recommendation: “Following the running of the SA Classic, the Handicappers should re-evaluate the entire three-year-old crop.”
Three additional horses received merit rating increases in this race:
  • SPLITTHEEIGHTS: 109 to 116
  • ONE EYE ON VEGAS: 106 to 115
  • RADIO STAR: 95 to 107
WILGERBOSDRIFT SA FILLIES CLASSIC (GRADE 1)
HAZY DAZY’S official merit rating remained unchanged at 117 after she held off her rivals to win the Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic over 1800m. HAZY DAZY remains 3 points lower that her male counterpart GRAND EMPIRE, which is within the range of the filly’s allowance while keeping her equal to the Western Cape Leading filly WISH LIST, who is also rated 117.
The Handicappers identified LITTLEMISSMILLION as the line horse, leaving her rating unchanged at 107.
Two horses received rating increases based on their margins ahead of the line horse at level weights:
  • SCARLETT HEART (third): 91 to 108
  • DAISY JONES (fourth): 106 to 108

Exciting new July Handicap conditions

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David Thiselton

 

The Hollywoodbets Durban July conditions have been finalised and the final field panellists might be in for an interesting evening before the Final Field And Barrier Draw Ceremony, whilst the three-year-olds look to be on the back foot at present.

 

There will be a longer handicap this year with a 10kg spread in the weights from a topweight of 62kg down to a bottom weight of 52kg.

 

Furthermore, it will just be a straight handicap, unlike recent July conditions in which there was a maximum and minimum weight for certain age groups and genders.

 

If the final field happens to have a spread that is less than 10kg, the topweight will still be 62kg. If, for example, there is a weight spread of 7kg among the entries, then the bottom weight will be 55kg.

 

If the topweights are scratched after the setting of the weights, then the new topweight will be dragged up to 62kg. For example if the topweight after scratchings is 60,5kg, it will be dragged up to 62kg and after the rest of the field have been dragged up the bottom weight will become 53,5kg.

 

The final field will not necessarily be chosen by merit rating order.

 

Justin Vermaak, Executive Racing and Bloodstock of Race Coast, said, “There will be a final field selection panel like before and merit rating will be a leading aspect, but the panel will also take current form and distance suitability into account etc.”

 

In recent years the final field panellists have not had it too tough as the field was cut up before the final field announcement, with a lot of horses being scratched due to the recognition by the connections they do not have much chance, either due to the weights not favouring them or due to them being off form – the final declaration fee could have, in those cases, been considered a waste of money.

 

However, with the longer handicap, there are going to be more horses who still have form chances on paper.

 

Looking at last year’s July for example, third-placed Selukwe was rated 111 and had to carry 54kg due to the condition that the minimum weight for an older male was 54kg. He was thus 2kg under sufferance with the 127-rated topweights, both older horses, and he was 4kg under sufferance with the officially best weighted horse, the 129 rated (nett 125-rated) Eight On Eighteen, who was set to carry 57kg despite being the highest merit rated horse in the race due to a condition that three-year-old males could not carry more than 57kg.

 

In last year’s race Oriental Charm carried 60kg, Eight On Eighteen carried 57kg and Selukwe carried 54kg.

 

Under this year’s conditions the weights for those three horses would have been: Oriental Charm 62kg, Eight On Eighteen 61kg and Selukwe 54kg. Selukwe would have been 2kg and 4kg better off with Oriental Charm and Eight On Eighteen respectively under today’s conditions.

 

He would have been 2kg better off with the winner The Real Prince too and, on paper, would have been beaten 0,30 lengths instead of by 2,65 lengths.

 

There could theoretically have been a horse who would have been even more favoured by today’s conditions than the 111-rated Selukwe example.

 

Using last year’s race under today’s conditions, an older horse who had been rated 107 would sneak into the handicap under today’s conditions.

 

A 107-rated older horse last year would have had to carry 54kg, 6kg less than the topweight, but under today’s conditions it would have only had to carry 52kg, which would be 10kg less than the 62kg topweight.

 

Therefore, there are theoretically going be a lot more horses standing their ground at the time of the final field selection process this year, because a lot more of them will have chances of winning on paper than would have been the case under the old conditions.

 

Furthermore, with stakes of R10 million up for grabs there will be less cases of horses being scratched due to the  connections deeming them to be off form. They might still want to take their chances.

 

The difficulty for the panel will come in deciding whether a lower rated horse is deemed to have better recent form or better distance suitability than a higher rated horse.

 

For argument sakes let’s assume that we go back to last year and there are still many horses standing their ground until the bitter end. After the top 17 are selected, according to the last log and current form, let’s assume the next two horses are the 115-rated Madison Valley and the 120-rated The Real Prince.

 

The Real Prince is rated five points higher than Madison Valley, but he has never run a race beyond 1600m before.

 

Madison Valley on the other hand finished a close fourth in the Betway Summer Cup over 2000m and in his final run before the July he won the traditional July pointer, the Hollywoodbets Dolphins Cup Trial over 1800m.

 

Which one are they going to put in the all important 18th slot?

 

Such a scenario is going to have much more chance of happening this year.

 

Although it has been said that weight avoidance tactics are going to be used this year, those who do take that route are probably going to run a bigger risk of not qualifying than ever before.

 

Now on to the three-year-olds.

 

Eight On Eighteen was held in high regard last year and came into the race 2kg well-in, according to official merit ratings, and yet he was not able to win the race.

 

Under today’s conditions he would have had to carry 61kg, effectively 2kg more.

 

So it was tough last year for a top, top three-year-old who was favoured by the old conditions.

 

How tough will it be for good-but-not-great three-year-olds under the new conditions, considering there is no maximum weight for them and no minimum weight for older horses?

 

Likewise it will be tough for females.

 

Furthermore, this year’s three-year-old crop are arguably overrated off their current merit ratings.

 

For example, Gauteng Guineas runner up Grand Empire could not win the Wolf Power 1600 against older horses when 2kg under sufferance off a 102 merit rating (effectively a 106 merit rating), yet he is now rated 120. There will be cries of “but the handicapper is clueless” when looking at that, but those who do say that are clueless themselves, because the handicapper rates a race on that race, not on past races, and Tin Pan Alley had earned his 117 rating by beating older horses and Grand Empire had then beaten him. Furthermore, Grand Empire was likely not at his peak for the Wolf Power with the Triple crown series looming.

 

Nevertheless, the overall impression is the current three-year-old male crop is not shining and it is questionable whether any of them have properly earned a rating of 120 or above.

 

It could well be an older horse July, but on the other hand there is an impressive unexposed horse like Note To Self among the three-year-olds and more such types might emerge.

 

The build up to this year’s Hollywoodbets Durban July is going to be more intriguing than ever!

 

London News July centenary victory

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David Thiselton

The 2026 Hollywoodbets Durban July will be a milestone one with the prize money doubled to R10 million and with a longer handicap introduced as the topweight will be upped to 62kg and bottom weight lowered to 52kg.

It will fittingly fall on the 30th anniversary of the centenary July, which turned out to be one of the greatest of all Julys as it was won by the legendary Alec Laird-trained London News, who went on to put South African racing on the map by winning the QE II Cup in Hong Kong.

The renowned South African wildlife painter Henk Vos released his celebrated work, the Painting Of The Century, depicting a century of July winners, after the July’s centenary running.

The iconic painting now hangs in the Classic Room at Hollywoodbets Greyville.

Alec Laird actually ordered one of the prints of the painting before it was completed as the print had the first of his great Uncle Syd Garrett’s five July winners on the left and the greatest of his father’s record seven July winners, Sea Cottage, was in the centre.

The right hand side just had a blank with a silhouette of a horse, because Vos did not know yet which horse he was going to paint there.

Alec, who trained out of Randjesfontein on the Highveld, related, “He hadn’t made up his mind what horse he was going to put in the last panel (the 20th panel) and he even said to me ‘I would like you to win the July because I would like to put you as the last painting.’ With about a year to go I said to him I’m not going to make it.’”

However, fate then had it that London News not only became the 14/10 favourite for the 100th running of the July, but he was also saddle cloth number 20, being the only three-year-old in the field and the bottom weight.

Piere Strydom recalled, “I remember at the traditional Friday night cocktail Henk Vos was there with his big painting and there was one spot left for the 100th winner and I can still remember saying to someone that I think my picture’s going to be up there.”

London News duly won the race and Alec, London News and Piere Strydom are now at the forefront of the famous painting’s 20th panel and the horse is fittingly carrying the no. 20 saddle cloth.

The London News story starts at the National Yearling Sale of 1994.

Alec recalled big owners Laurie and Jean Jaffee’s chief aim at that Sale was to buy a yearling by their own 1987 July winner, Bush Telegraph.

Alec recalled Harmony Forever being his number one choice at that Sale.

However, he remembered London News being “a nice horse.”

He added, “On the first day a Bush Telegraph colt called Mr Newspaperman went for about R300,000. London News looked more athletic and Jean Jaffee actually said to me, ‘What about this one?’ On the first day they didn’t get a horse, the second day they didn’t get one and the more they asked me about London News the nicer he got, because I was otherwise going to go home without a horse!”

The Jaffees managed to secure London News.

Alec recalled, “He was a light youngster and even as a three-year-old was quite light. He didn’t show immediately, but we always had the feeling that he would be a nice horse when he matured.”

In fact, London News made a particularly inauspicious debut, beaten no fewer than 16,5 lengths under Anton Marcus in a 1200m Maiden Juvenile Plate over 1200m at the Vaal on June 6, 1995.

However, he got better and better and when he smashed the Greyville 2000m course record, which still stands today, in the Gr 1 Daily News 2000, he had won six out of eleven starts including the Dingaans and two middle distance Gr 1s.

Piere Strydom was aboard for the Daily News 2000 too.

He reflected on the 1996 July, the first of his four victories in South Africa’s greatest race, “London News was a lekker horse to ride because he had gate speed, a lot of natural speed and he would travel right up there in front and he had a good kick. But at the top of the straight (having led) I thought with a light weight let me just let the reins go a bit and get a length or two for the short straight. But he accelerated way quicker than I had expected and that’s when he made up three or four lengths on the field. Obviously it was going to tell at the end and he was stopping quite badly at the end. I heard the horses coming and I was just hoping for the line and he held on.”

Alec added, “Mike Rattray had invited me to watch in his box because it was on the line and he won by a neck but my eyes wouldn’t believe it because there was so much pressure. I wanted to see the number up!”

Alec described the emotion of being on the honour roll together with his late record-breaking seven-time July-winning father Syd.

In fact his extended family is comfortably the most prolific July-winning family in history with his grandfather Alec winning one as a jockey, his great Uncle Syd Garrett winning two as a jockey and three as a trainer, his father Syd winning a record seven as a trainer, and the cousins Dennis Drier, Alec Laird and Charles Laird each winning one July apiece – a total of 16 for the July dynasty.