David Thiselton

A Progress Plate over 1700m is the main race at the Vaal today – the meeting moved from Turffontein because of a waterlogged track – and King Harald could be the one to beat.

He disappointed in the Gr 2 Gauteng Guineas when fading tamely in the straight, but before that had been close to I’m A Fireball when the latter broke the course record for 1450m at the Vaal Classic track and he then won in commanding style over 1600m last time. He has landed a good draw of two. Chronicle King will be a threat. This Gr 2 winner over 1400m gave King Harald 3kg and a 4,25 length beating in a Graduation Plate over 1450m in October. However, before that there was only a neck between them at level weights in the Gr 1 World Pool Moment Of The Day Champion Stakes over 1600m at Hollywoodbets Greyville and that was despite King Harald having to come from a wide draw. Last time out Chronicle King faded late in the 4Racing Wolf Power over 1600m at Turffontein Standside, admittedly after being used early to get the lead from a wide draw. Chronicle King seems at his best over 1400m and he not only has a worse draw than the latter of five compared to two but King Harald also receives 3kg from him on the race card and in fact receives 2,5kg if the claim of the country’s most in-form apprentice, Blaine Marx-Jacobson, is included. So King Harald gets the nod, but the race does not end there as Jimmy Don is also in the field. At his best this talented horse would be the one to beat and he is in fact so well treated at the weights that he is 3,5kg better off with the second best treated horse, Chronicle King. However, his comeback run in February, where he finished a running on 4,20 length fifth, followed  layoff of more than two-and-a-half years, so there have been some issues. The filly Gerbera represents the in-form Sean Tarry yard and on her day she would have a chance but she comes off a below par run over course and distance. The Tarry-trained Storm Brasco seemed to have potential at one stage, but has not run since last October.

In the first leg of the Pick 6 is over 1200m. Geostorm is a full-brother to Gr 1-winning sprinter Buffalo Storm Cody and returns from a rest of close to six months after a good debut, but can get away with it over this trip. Hammer Blow is improving and should be in the shake up. Tiger’s Captain has the form to be a contender and Highwayman Harry could still improve.

In the fifth race over 1200m Echo Check has some fine form and should be a big runner here. The Last Duke is talented and will enjoy the step down in trip.  Gimmethegoodlife has consistent sprint form and should be in the shake up. The Specialist has class and has bounced back to form with two wins in his last two, so he must be respected. Dantonfromsandton can’t be ignored off a competitive merit rating.

In the sixth over 1700m Frangipani has not been disgraced against feature company and is potentially well handicapped here. Chieftain’s Shield is a bit off form but from pole position could bounce back as he has a good finish on his day. Mocha Frappe has been a bit disappointing, but could be dangerous off this lowly merit rating from a good draw. Pretty Analia packs a strong finish if things go her way, but she will need luck from a wide draw. Unsolved Riddle won well last time over 1450m and has a chance off a four point higher mark, but interestingly Blaine Marx-Jacobson has not retained the ride and instead rides Deception Pass.

In the eighth over 1000m Precocious goes for a five-timer and Marx-Jacobson stays on top having been on for her last three wins. She could defy the handicapper again as she won by a cosy length last time after a six point raise and she only has to overcome a four point raise this time. On the downside Marx-Jacobson only claims 2,5kg this time compared to 4kg last time. Fiery Rose could be the one to pick up the pieces as she won impressively last time and is on the up.

In the ninth over 1000m Amazonian has disappointed in her last two starts but was drawn on the wrong side both times and has now come down five points in the merit ratings and gets a nice middle to high draw in the ten horse field. She looks to have scope and can bounce back.

In the first race Moana is the one to beat on the weight turnaround with Within Reach.

In the second Dear Doc was a runaway winner last time and now has an acid test carrying a 3kg penalty from a tricky draw, but he looks up to it.

In the third race Wispinthewillow looks hard to oppose from a fair draw.

Race 1

4 MOANA 2 DOESYOURMOTHERKNOW 1 WITHIN REACH 6 PROUD MARY

Preview: 4 MOANA went close on debut and with expected improvement can go one better. 2 DOESYOURMOTHERKNOW was only a short-head behind Moana and should also be right there. 1 WITHIN REACH but the latter pair but is 3kg worse off for a 0,80 length beating of Moana. 6 PROUD MARY looks capable of earning here. (David Thiselton 4-2-1-6)

Race 2

1 DEAR DOC 2 PRAYERSANDPROMISES 3 DADS DREAM 5 HIGHWAY CODE

Preview: 1 DEAR DOC won easily last time when stepped up to this trip category and has a chance again although he has a tricky draw. 2 PRAYERSANDPROMISES looks promising but also has a wide draw. 3 DADS DREAM has been thereabouts against good sorts and from pole position over a suitable step up in trip he could go close. 5 HIGHWAY CODE has seven lengths to make up on Dear Doc nut is only 3kg better off. (David Thiselton 1-2-3-5)

Race 3

1 WISPINTHEWILLOW 2 GATHERING WINTER 4 CHARLESTON DAWN 3 ADA LOVELACE

Preview: 1 WISPINTHEWILLOW ran well last time and has a fair opportunity here. 2 GATHERING WINTER is usually thereabouts and a high draw might aid her cause. 4 CHARLESTON DAWN has the form to have a chance here. 3 ADA LOVELACE is moderate but could earn a cheque in this line up. (David Thiselton 1-2-4-3)

Race 4

9 GEOSTORM 2 HAMMER BLOW 4 TIGER’S CAPTAIN 1 HIGHWAYMAN HARRY

Preview: 9 GEOSTORM is a full-brother to Gr 1-winning sprinter Buffalo Storm Cody and can do well here despite returning from a rest of close to six months after a good debut. 2 HAMMER BLOW is improving and should be in the shake up. 4 TIGER’S CAPTAIN has the form to be a contender. 1 HIGHWAYMAN HARRY could still improve and is a contender for a place. (David Thiselton 9-2-4-1)

Race 5

3 THE LAST DUKE 4 GIMMETHEGOODLIFE 5 THE SPECIALIST 6 ECHO CHECK

Preview:  6 ECHO CHECK has some fine form and should be a big runner here. 3 THE LAST DUKE is talented and will enjoy the step down in trip. 4 GIMMETHEGOODLIFE has consistent sprint form and should be in the shake up. 5 THE SPECIALIST has class and has bounced back to form with two wins in his last two so he must be respected. (David Thiselton 6-3-4-5)

Race 6

2 FRANGIPANI 3 CHIEFTAIN’S SHIELD 9 MOCHA FRAPPE 10 PRETTY ANALIA

Preview: 2 FRANGIPANI has not been disgraced against feature company and is potentially well handicapped here. 3 CHIEFTAIN’S SHIELD is a bit off form but from pole position could bounce back as he has a good finish on his day. 9 MOCHA FRAPPE has been a bit disappointing but could be dangerous off this lowly merit rating from a good draw. 10 PRETTY ANALIA packs a strong finish if things go her way, but she will need luck from a wide draw. (David Thiselton 2-3-9-10)

Race 7

4 KING HARALD 1 CHRONICLE KING 3 JIMMY DON 5 GERBERA

Preview: 4 KING HARALD has class and from a good draw with an in-form rider aboard he should go close. 1 CHRONICLE KING has some class and should be in the shake up. 3 JIMMY DON is well weighted on is best form but he did have a two-and-a-half year layoff before his last run. 5 GERBERA could earn a cheque here. (David Thiselton 4-1-3-5)

Race 8

1 PRECOCIOUS 7 FIERY ROSE 8 MYSTICAL MISS 5 BOSUM BUDDY

Preview: 8 MYSTICAL MISS has two lengths to make up on Precocious and is 9kg better off. 1 PRECOCIOUS has been in devastating form on the Highveld and she might defy the handicapper again. 7 FIERY ROSE beat a fair sort easily last time and has a chance.  5 BOSUM BUDDY could earn a cheque if reproducing her best. (David Thiselton 1-7-8-5)

Race 9

7 AMAZONIAN 8 MRS STORMIATRIX 3 TEMPRANILLO 1 BLINDFIRE

Preview: 7 AMAZONIAN looks to have scope for improvement and could be the one to beat. 8 MRS STORMIATRIX is on the up and should be right there. 3 TEMPRANILLO has pace and could be a threat. 1 BLINDFIRE is an honest sort who should make another bold bid. (David Thiselton 7-8-3-1)

• SPLITTHEEIGHTS: 109 to 116
• ONE EYE ON VEGAS: 106 to 115
• RADIO STAR: 95 to 107

• SCARLETT HEART (third): 91 to 108
• DAISY JONES (fourth): 106 to 108

David Thiselton

The Hollywoodbets Durban July conditions have been finalised and the final field panellists might be in for an interesting evening before the Final Field And Barrier Draw Ceremony, whilst the three-year-olds look to be on the back foot at present.

There will be a longer handicap this year with a 10kg spread in the weights from a topweight of 62kg down to a bottom weight of 52kg.

Furthermore, it will just be a straight handicap, unlike recent July conditions in which there was a maximum and minimum weight for certain age groups and genders.

If the final field happens to have a spread that is less than 10kg, the topweight will still be 62kg. If, for example, there is a weight spread of 7kg among the entries, then the bottom weight will be 55kg.

If the topweights are scratched after the setting of the weights, then the new topweight will be dragged up to 62kg. For example if the topweight after scratchings is 60,5kg, it will be dragged up to 62kg and after the rest of the field have been dragged up the bottom weight will become 53,5kg.

The final field will not necessarily be chosen by merit rating order.

Justin Vermaak, Executive Racing and Bloodstock of Race Coast, said, “There will be a final field selection panel like before and merit rating will be a leading aspect, but the panel will also take current form and distance suitability into account etc.”

In recent years the final field panellists have not had it too tough as the field was cut up before the final field announcement, with a lot of horses being scratched due to the recognition by the connections they do not have much chance, either due to the weights not favouring them or due to them being off form – the final declaration fee could have, in those cases, been considered a waste of money.

However, with the longer handicap, there are going to be more horses who still have form chances on paper.

Looking at last year’s July for example, third-placed Selukwe was rated 111 and had to carry 54kg due to the condition that the minimum weight for an older male was 54kg. He was thus 2kg under sufferance with the 127-rated topweights, both older horses, and he was 4kg under sufferance with the officially best weighted horse, the 129 rated (nett 125-rated) Eight On Eighteen, who was set to carry 57kg despite being the highest merit rated horse in the race due to a condition that three-year-old males could not carry more than 57kg.

In last year’s race Oriental Charm carried 60kg, Eight On Eighteen carried 57kg and Selukwe carried 54kg.

Under this year’s conditions the weights for those three horses would have been: Oriental Charm 62kg, Eight On Eighteen 61kg and Selukwe 54kg. Selukwe would have been 2kg and 4kg better off with Oriental Charm and Eight On Eighteen respectively under today’s conditions.

He would have been 2kg better off with the winner The Real Prince too and, on paper, would have been beaten 0,30 lengths instead of by 2,65 lengths.

There could theoretically have been a horse who would have been even more favoured by today’s conditions than the 111-rated Selukwe example.

Using last year’s race under today’s conditions, an older horse who had been rated 107 would sneak into the handicap under today’s conditions.

A 107-rated older horse last year would have had to carry 54kg, 6kg less than the topweight, but under today’s conditions it would have only had to carry 52kg, which would be 10kg less than the 62kg topweight.

Therefore, there are theoretically going be a lot more horses standing their ground at the time of the final field selection process this year, because a lot more of them will have chances of winning on paper than would have been the case under the old conditions.

Furthermore, with stakes of R10 million up for grabs there will be less cases of horses being scratched due to the  connections deeming them to be off form. They might still want to take their chances.

The difficulty for the panel will come in deciding whether a lower rated horse is deemed to have better recent form or better distance suitability than a higher rated horse.

For argument sakes let’s assume that we go back to last year and there are still many horses standing their ground until the bitter end. After the top 17 are selected, according to the last log and current form, let’s assume the next two horses are the 115-rated Madison Valley and the 120-rated The Real Prince.

The Real Prince is rated five points higher than Madison Valley, but he has never run a race beyond 1600m before.

Madison Valley on the other hand finished a close fourth in the Betway Summer Cup over 2000m and in his final run before the July he won the traditional July pointer, the Hollywoodbets Dolphins Cup Trial over 1800m.

Which one are they going to put in the all important 18th slot?

Such a scenario is going to have much more chance of happening this year.

Although it has been said that weight avoidance tactics are going to be used this year, those who do take that route are probably going to run a bigger risk of not qualifying than ever before.

Now on to the three-year-olds.

Eight On Eighteen was held in high regard last year and came into the race 2kg well-in, according to official merit ratings, and yet he was not able to win the race.

Under today’s conditions he would have had to carry 61kg, effectively 2kg more.

So it was tough last year for a top, top three-year-old who was favoured by the old conditions.

How tough will it be for good-but-not-great three-year-olds under the new conditions, considering there is no maximum weight for them and no minimum weight for older horses?

Likewise it will be tough for females.

Furthermore, this year’s three-year-old crop are arguably overrated off their current merit ratings.

For example, Gauteng Guineas runner up Grand Empire could not win the Wolf Power 1600 against older horses when 2kg under sufferance off a 102 merit rating (effectively a 106 merit rating), yet he is now rated 120. There will be cries of “but the handicapper is clueless” when looking at that, but those who do say that are clueless themselves, because the handicapper rates a race on that race, not on past races, and Tin Pan Alley had earned his 117 rating by beating older horses and Grand Empire had then beaten him. Furthermore, Grand Empire was likely not at his peak for the Wolf Power with the Triple crown series looming.

Nevertheless, the overall impression is the current three-year-old male crop is not shining and it is questionable whether any of them have properly earned a rating of 120 or above.

It could well be an older horse July, but on the other hand there is an impressive unexposed horse like Note To Self among the three-year-olds and more such types might emerge.

The build up to this year’s Hollywoodbets Durban July is going to be more intriguing than ever!

David Thiselton

The 2026 Hollywoodbets Durban July will be a milestone one with the prize money doubled to R10 million and with a longer handicap introduced as the topweight will be upped to 62kg and bottom weight lowered to 52kg.

It will fittingly fall on the 30th anniversary of the centenary July, which turned out to be one of the greatest of all Julys as it was won by the legendary Alec Laird-trained London News, who went on to put South African racing on the map by winning the QE II Cup in Hong Kong.

The renowned South African wildlife painter Henk Vos released his celebrated work, the Painting Of The Century, depicting a century of July winners, after the July’s centenary running.

The iconic painting now hangs in the Classic Room at Hollywoodbets Greyville.

Alec Laird actually ordered one of the prints of the painting before it was completed as the print had the first of his great Uncle Syd Garrett’s five July winners on the left and the greatest of his father’s record seven July winners, Sea Cottage, was in the centre.

The right hand side just had a blank with a silhouette of a horse, because Vos did not know yet which horse he was going to paint there.

Alec, who trained out of Randjesfontein on the Highveld, related, “He hadn’t made up his mind what horse he was going to put in the last panel (the 20th panel) and he even said to me ‘I would like you to win the July because I would like to put you as the last painting.’ With about a year to go I said to him I’m not going to make it.’”

However, fate then had it that London News not only became the 14/10 favourite for the 100th running of the July, but he was also saddle cloth number 20, being the only three-year-old in the field and the bottom weight.

Piere Strydom recalled, “I remember at the traditional Friday night cocktail Henk Vos was there with his big painting and there was one spot left for the 100th winner and I can still remember saying to someone that I think my picture’s going to be up there.”

London News duly won the race and Alec, London News and Piere Strydom are now at the forefront of the famous painting’s 20th panel and the horse is fittingly carrying the no. 20 saddle cloth.

The London News story starts at the National Yearling Sale of 1994.

Alec recalled big owners Laurie and Jean Jaffee’s chief aim at that Sale was to buy a yearling by their own 1987 July winner, Bush Telegraph.

Alec recalled Harmony Forever being his number one choice at that Sale.

However, he remembered London News being “a nice horse.”

He added, “On the first day a Bush Telegraph colt called Mr Newspaperman went for about R300,000. London News looked more athletic and Jean Jaffee actually said to me, ‘What about this one?’ On the first day they didn’t get a horse, the second day they didn’t get one and the more they asked me about London News the nicer he got, because I was otherwise going to go home without a horse!”

The Jaffees managed to secure London News.

Alec recalled, “He was a light youngster and even as a three-year-old was quite light. He didn’t show immediately, but we always had the feeling that he would be a nice horse when he matured.”

In fact, London News made a particularly inauspicious debut, beaten no fewer than 16,5 lengths under Anton Marcus in a 1200m Maiden Juvenile Plate over 1200m at the Vaal on June 6, 1995.

However, he got better and better and when he smashed the Greyville 2000m course record, which still stands today, in the Gr 1 Daily News 2000, he had won six out of eleven starts including the Dingaans and two middle distance Gr 1s.

Piere Strydom was aboard for the Daily News 2000 too.

He reflected on the 1996 July, the first of his four victories in South Africa’s greatest race, “London News was a lekker horse to ride because he had gate speed, a lot of natural speed and he would travel right up there in front and he had a good kick. But at the top of the straight (having led) I thought with a light weight let me just let the reins go a bit and get a length or two for the short straight. But he accelerated way quicker than I had expected and that’s when he made up three or four lengths on the field. Obviously it was going to tell at the end and he was stopping quite badly at the end. I heard the horses coming and I was just hoping for the line and he held on.”

Alec added, “Mike Rattray had invited me to watch in his box because it was on the line and he won by a neck but my eyes wouldn’t believe it because there was so much pressure. I wanted to see the number up!”

Alec described the emotion of being on the honour roll together with his late record-breaking seven-time July-winning father Syd.

In fact his extended family is comfortably the most prolific July-winning family in history with his grandfather Alec winning one as a jockey, his great Uncle Syd Garrett winning two as a jockey and three as a trainer, his father Syd winning a record seven as a trainer, and the cousins Dennis Drier, Alec Laird and Charles Laird each winning one July apiece – a total of 16 for the July dynasty.