Category Archives: Racing News

Hollywoodbets Scottsville, Sunday 26 April – Comments by David Thiselton

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Race 1

 

1 ANUSHKA has been knocking on the door and should go close over a suitable trip from pole position. 2 SMART CHOICE has fine form over 1000m and has a plum draw.  4 ROYAL CREST has run two crackers over 1000m and has a fair draw. 7 YUKINKO is a first-timer by New Predator out of a Duke Of Marmalade mare who is from the good Circle Of Life family. (David Thiselton 1-2-4-7)

 

Race 2

 

5 STRONGER TOGETHER went close on debut and with expected improvement should be right there. 7 AMBER ALERT has a chance of repeating his penultimate start over this trip. 1 TIGER CODY is a first-timer by Buffalo Bill Cody out of a Var mare. 2 BILLY LOVER BOY is by Declarationofpeace out of a Right Approach mare. (David Thiselton 5-7-1-2)

 

Race 3

 

6 QUERARISTINYFERARI went close last time and is on the up so looks the one to beat over an ideal trip. 5 CARTEL QUEEN has been thereabouts recently and has a chance with a 4kg claimer up. 2 BERRINGTON BLEW can earn if repeating her last start. 7 WINTER MIRACLE has some ability and tries a drop in trip. (David Thiselton 6-5-2-7)

 

Race 4

 

9 VIKING LEADER has placed third in both starts and is the one to beat over a suitable trip. 8 LIGHT THE FIRE has the form to be a contender in this line up. 2 ETZEBETH is a big one-paced sort but of sent forward to the front could plug on into a place. 3 FULL MONTY ran an improved race last time in an open maiden and could earn from a good draw. (David Thiselton 9-8-2-3)

 

Race 5

 

2 MASTER BOMBER one well last time and can go close off a three point higher mark if repeating. 9 THE GLIDING FISH looks to have dropped to a cometitive mark and should be in the shake up. 6 MEERKAT MOON won well with the blinkers on and can follow up off a three point higher mark from a fair draw. 14 BEACH PALACE is usually thereabouts and is off a competitive mark but has a wide draw to overcome. (David Thiselton 2-9-6-14)

 

Race 6

 

2 DYLAN’S CHAMP disappointed on the poly last time but before that ran a cracker at this course and has a plum draw here. 10 GALLIC VICTOR is a talented sort and the best might not have been seen of him yet so he should be right there despite having to overcome a wide draw. 7 SOMMERSTERN has hard-knocking form in Cape Town and should go close here despite having a tricky draw. 3 MY LUCKY CHARM is in good form and should be right there from a good draw under a 4kg claimer. (David Thiselton 2-10-7-3)

 

 

Race 7

 

11 SYMPHONY IN WHITE has a lot of class and comes off two fine wins. 9 SWEETIE DARLING gets 3kg from Symphony In White for a mere 1,10 length beating so she should be right there. 2 BABELICIOUS went close to Princess Of Gaul in a Listed race when last tried over this trip so should be in the shake up here. 1 TARA STAR is ultra consistet and should make a bold bid. (David Thiselton 11-9-2-1)

 

 

Race 8

 

8 GOOD FOR YOU has a lot of class and has won a Gr 1 over 1200m here so should enjoy this 1100m trip. 14 SPEEDMAN hs won four out of five and looks to be an exciting prospect. 12 CIRCUMBENDIBUS is in devastating form at present and will be out to land a hatttrick and he should hanle the extra 100m. 13 KAALVOET went close in a Non-Black Type sprint last time over this trip at Turffontein Standside. (David Thiselton 8-14-12-13)

 

 

Race 9

 

11 BEST OF ALL won easily and impressively last time and starts off with a reasonable merit rating. 4 XENOPHON is tlented and and should start coming into his own. 7 ROCK MUSIC can earn again after a fair second over 1000m on the poly last time. 8 GORGEOUS GUY is an honest sort who should be in the shake up. (David Thiselton 11-4-7-8-9)

 

 

Race 10

 

7 MIDNIGHT LADY went close over 1200m in Cape Town ast time and has a big shout. 8 CELESTIAL DIAMOND has been knocking hard and should be right there. 9 CALL ME JANE has been ultra consistent over 1000m and tris 1100m. 2 VICTORY IN ORLEANS was not disgraced last time in a Plare race against Zalatoris and could earn here. (David Thiselton 7-8-9-2)

Fortune to play the tune

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Devonne Govender

 

A competitive ten-race programme awaits racing enthusiasts and punters today at Hollywoodbets Scottsville.

 

The headline races on the card are undoubtedly the Dennis Drier Poinsettia Stakes (Grade 3) and the In Full Flight Handicap (Listed).

 

In Race 7, the Dennis Drier Poinsettia Stakes, Symphony In White is a leading contender. She has been in solid form lately and was very impressive when winning at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth in her last start. She also performs exceptionally well at this track, with a standout run on the 31st of May 2025 in the South African Fillies Sprint (Grade 1). She appeared to be traveling well when hampered at a crucial stage, ultimately finishing just 4.55 lengths behind the winner. Andrew Fortune knows her well, and she could take some beating here.

 

But the race doesn’t end there, as several others are in good form. Stablemate Babelicious is a must-include in all bets. She has shown she can finish strongly on her day and will be right there with Serino Moodley aboard.

 

Mai Sensation, trained by Lucinda Woodruff and ridden by Juan Paul V’D Merwe, commands respect. She hasn’t been far off in recent outings and will be a serious contender if bringing her best form. Another runner to consider is Asiye Phambili, trained by Duncan Howells. She performs very well at this track and packs plenty of class. With Sean Veale aboard, she’s sure to be a massive runner.

 

Race 8, the In Full Flight Handicap (Listed), this looks set to be another fiercely contested race with many runners holding solid form.

 

Speedman from the Sean Tarry yard stands out on current form. The son of Vercingetorix was highly impressive when winning his last start and appears destined for bigger things. With Craig Zackey in the saddle, who knows him well, another big performance is expected. His versatility across different distances is a sign of a very smart horse.

 

Kaiboy, trained by Candice Bass, is another to keep an eye on. He outran his odds last time out, finishing a close-up fourth behind Dance Variety at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth.He has always been highly regarded, he’s sure to make his presence felt in a big way with Serino Moodley aboard.

 

I’m A Fireball from the Mike and Mathew de Kock yard is another lively contender. He secured a gutsy win at Hollywoodbets Scottsville when beating the classy Roland Garros on the 1st of March 2026. His last run was outstanding, finishing second behind Malmesbury Missile, and he’s definitely one to watch.

 

All in all, it looks to be a mouth-watering card for punters, and the Pick 6 could be the way to go, with massive pools expected.

Please note that the race meeting scheduled for Saturday, 25 April 2026 at Turffontein Racecourse (Standside Track) has been postponed to Tuesday, 28 April 2026.

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This decision follows the recording of over 60mm of rainfall at Turffontein over the past seven days, including in excess of 20mm overnight.

As a result, sections of the track have become waterlogged, with conditions currently inconsistent across the course.

In addition, the weather forecast for the remainder of today remains unfavourable.

While improved conditions are expected from Saturday onwards, Tuesday presents the most suitable window for racing, as forecasts beyond that indicate a return to less favourable weather patterns.

The decision to postpone has been made proactively, as even in the absence of further rainfall, the current state of the track would remain unsuitable for racing and could compromise both safety and fairness.

As a consequence of this change:

The race meeting originally scheduled for Tuesday, 28 April 2026 at Vaal Racecourse will be abandoned.

An additional race meeting will be scheduled for Monday, 4 May 2026, which will be a Work Riders’ meeting.

Entries for this meeting will be disseminated via the NRB in due course.

Race times for the rescheduled meeting on Tuesday, 28 April 2026 will be communicated as soon as possible.

Uzwano should see out the trip

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Andrew Harrison

The battle for a place in this year’s R10 million Hollywoodbets Durban July began in earnest on Wednesday with the announcement of the first 63 entries. Given the that first entry fee is a modest R2 500 there are plenty of connections willing to take their chances at this early stage.

That said, two of the early entries line up on the turf at Hollywoodbets Greyville this evening, the three-year-old Count Of Rouen and Johnny The Thief although both may have to take a back seat in a competitive handicap where Dean Kannemeyer has two lively contenders in the Class 3 Handicap over 1900.

Kannemeyer sends out Continentalexpress and Uzwano. Continentalexpress is consistent but would probably be more effective over further and while Uzwano goes this trip for the first time his pedigree suggests that he should easily see it out and may be the pick of the pair with Hollywood Racing’s Sean Veale in the irons.

Peter Muscutt sends out Count Of Rouen who was in need of his last run. As a Hollywoodbets Durban July entry he will need to put in a forward showing. Go Grayson Go is the likely pacemaker. He has been caught late at his last two over 1950m at Hollywoodbets Scottsville and may just last over this 50m shorter. Mohave Prince is unbeaten in two since the blinkers were added, has a handy weight helped by Rachel Venniker’s allowance.

MJ Odendaal has always held Johnny The Thief in high regard and he was running on well over a distance well short of his best last time out. Only time will tell whether his is good enough to make the July field.

Punters face a competitive field from the first race where most are first timers so the betting should prove your best guide.

The second could rest between Peace Rose and Peach Melba although Emerald Forge makes her local debut and has been expensive to follow on the Highveld where she has started favourite on numerous occasions only to disappoint but must have shown some ability.

Kiartay and Bison Warrior could suffice in the first leg of the PA. Kiartay made a smart debut before taking on winners in a feature next time out, both runs at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth. He has the best of the draw in his first outing for Tienie Prinsloo. Bison Warrior was run out of it late last run and the step up in trip with some experience under his girth should see him close again.

In the first leg of the Pick 6 Bai Yulu made a smart debut at long odds for Mike and Mathew de Kock. She is bred to stay this trip and any improvement can see her home. Gold Gold Baby has some promising Western Cape form and meets little of note in this line-up and is the one to beat. Surprise could come in the form of Flickering Light who showed signs of coming to hand  when stepped up to 1600m last run. This trip should suit.

Tough handicaps follow. In the fifth, Tobacconist has come well at his last two and is over his ideal trip and Veale stays with the ride in preference to top weight Trois Quatre. Stuart Ferrie’s filly Hodge Podge is in cracking form and she followed up two close-up finishes behind subsequent Gr2 SA Derby winner Curious Girl with a comfortable victory over Fine Wine who has since gone on to frank that form. Of the balance I’m Invictus won well second time of asking when tried in blinkers. He has a handy weight and looks promising. Leading rider Craig Zackey takes the ride on My Boy Lollipop who has no recent form over shorter. The step up in trip and jockey booking could be a pointer.

In the seventh, Silver Salute was a comfortable winner over course and distance in her local debut. She only got a three-point raise in the handicap and can follow up. Blue Poppy was well beaten by Silver Salute when last they met but it was a below par performance from a wide draw. She should finish closer. Grand Occasion has been in mustard form of late and won well from a tricky draw when beating Blue Poppy last time out. Michaelle Michel’s 1.5kg allowance offsets her rating increase and she can confirm that result. West Side Story showed some improvement when going a mile again. She has a light weight and has an upset chance.

The eighth is a wide open handicap but Tyroconnell  has been knocking at the door of late in useful company. He has no weight on his back and gets cheek pieces again which can see him go one better. Queue Wing is a veteran with 48kg to shoulder from a good draw. Judged by jockey bookings Green Glow would look to be Kannemeyer’s second string but Serino Moodley was aboard when shedding his maiden and the gelding is way better than his last effort. Stable companion Kanaal Skater s better than his last run from a wide draw and has a winning chance on his penultimate showing while Sundance Kid has been runner-up at his last three but all have come on the poly which is a concern.

The last is another tricky handicap but Take Your Place has shown up well in two recent outings against speedy opposition. She gets a three-point relief in the handicap that should see her competitive in another wide open race. Call Of The Karoo was a beaten favourite last start when taking on stronger. She has top weight but also a stronger rider aboard. Amafort is unbeaten in two with blinkers and a useful 4kg apprentice aboard and has a hattrick chance.

Hollywoodbets Durban July first entries

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David Thiselton

 

There are 63 entries for the R10 million Hollywoodbets Durban July to be run on July 4 over 2200m at Hollywoodbets Greyville.

 

Champion trainer Justin Snaith, who is going for a sixth July win, led the way with ten entries headed by the WSB Cape Town Met and World Pool Premier’s Champions Challenge winner See It Again. He also has last year’s July runner up Eight On Eighteen in his team as well as dual Gr 1 winner Wish List, the Met runner up Legal Counsel, the exciting Lucky Fish Cape Derby runner up Note To Self as well as Okavango, Happy Verse, Native Ruler, Regulation and Great Plains. Note To Self could be the one to side with, because this big son of Futura has a fine turn of foot and as things stand will have a nice galloping weight of 54kg, presuming the 130 rated See It Again will stand his ground and be allotted top weight of 62kg.

 

The race has new conditions with the difference between this year’s and last year’s being there is a 10kg spread as opposed to a 8kg spread; there are no maximum or minimum weights for three-year-old males or for three-year-old females or for older females, and there are no minimum weights for older males.

Rather it is just a straight handicap with the normal weight for age allowances, which in the case of a 2200m race taking place in the month of July is a 2kg weight for age allowance for the three-year-olds.

Mike de Kock has also won five Julys and will now be attempting to win one as a partner of his son Mathew. They have four entries headed by Gr 1 Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas winner Jan Van Goyen, Gr 2 SA Derby winner Curious Girl, Gr 2 Gauteng Guineas winner Splittheeights and the former Zimbabwean Triple Crown winner Buster Barnes. Of those Splittheeights looks to have some fine formlines and is potentially well weighted, although as things stand he is officially 2,5kg under sufferance off a 109 merit rating.

Dean Kannemeyer will be going for a fifth win in the big race, but last year’s winner The Real Prince is his sole entry.

Sean Tarry has won the July twice before and he has entered three horses, including Gr 1 SA Classic winner Grand Empire. The latter is officially 1,5kg under sufferance as things stand, an unusual occurrence for a Gr 1 winner, so he has to be considered potentially well weighted.

James Crawford now heads the yard who won the race twice in succession in 2023 and 2024 as his father Brett has relocated to Hong Kong.

James played a big part in both victories and has three entries, including the progressive pair Star Major and Reet Petite. They both have the perfect merit rating for a three-year-old as things stand, 114, because that means they come into the race with bottom weight of 52kg and they sneak into the handicap.

The other three trainers with entries who have won the race before are Alec Laird, Glen Kotzen and Candice Bass.

Laird has a big entry of six, headed by the Gr 1 winners Fire Attack and Atticus Finch. Fire Attack has had a disappointing season, but at his best he possesses a strong finish, so can’t be written off. Atticus Finch suffered epistaxis in last year’s race, but if things go well for him this former Betway Summer Cup winner has the class to be a threat, although he will have to carry a big weight of 60,5kg off his 127 rating as things stand.

Kotzen has entered the brave stayer Holding Thumbs, who will try his heart out.

Bass has three entries including the dependable Rainbow Lorikeet and the exciting three-year-old prospect Viva’s Liberte, the best of whom is unlikely to have been seen yet.

Another interesting entry is the Jackpot City Dingaans winner Trust, who was a narrow runner up in the SA Classic and he looks potentially well weighted off a mere 110 rating, which officially puts him 2kg under sufferance as things stand. He will be out to give July nearly man Larry Nestadt a first win in the big race and the other owners, Gary Player and the Lindsay Ralphs family, will also be trying to win the July for the first time.

The filly who only just missed landing the Triple Tiara, the Corne Spies-trained Hazy Dazy, is an entry.

KZN have plenty of entries headed by the Frank Robinson-trained Betway Summer Cup winner Mocha Blend, the Stuart Ferrie-trained Gr 1 Champions Cup winner Gladatorian,  the Gareth van Zyl-trained champion stayer King Pelles and his SA Derby runner up stablemate Salani Kahle, the Nathan Kotzen-trained stayer Shoot The Rapids and his improving stablemate Field Marshal, Peter Muscutt has three entries including I Salute You, Michael Roberts has entered the classy Ladyofdistinction and there are also entries from Darryl Moore and MJ Odendaal.

Devin Heffer, Hollywoodbets Brand and Communications manager, said, “It has been a privilege for us as a leading brand to be associated with this internationally acclaimed sporting event since 2022, and every year it just gets bigger and better. With the adjustment in the race conditions and a doubling of the prize money to a record new stakes pot, the first entries list is proof that the stars are aligned and  Hollywoodbets Greyville is set to live up to its label of the ‘Theatre of Champions’ on 4 July”.

Zackey eyes Jockeys’ title

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David Thiselton

Craig Zackey reached the 200 wins mark for the season with a treble at Turffontein Standside on Sunday and he now has the national Jockeys Championship within reach.

He took the lead at the end of November, but Richard Fourie and him then went neck and neck for a couple of months and were both on 61 wins at the end of October.

However, Zackey then pulled clear and was 14 wins ahead at the end of November.

Richard Fourie showed good foresight at that stage by saying Craig should be the favourite for the title.

Hollywoodbets had Fourie at 9/10 and Zackey at 11/10 at that stage.

However, Fourie said, “I think they’ve got it all wrong, I think Craig Zackey should be 4/10. He’s working phenomenally well. He’s riding well. He’s travelling every day. I’ve made it very clear, I’ll go up and ride the feature race days, but I enjoy working in Cape Town and riding for Ridgemont.”

He added, “My aim is to ride as many winners as I can on the days that I ride. I’m concentrating on winning big races and working with my team.”

However, he did conclude by saying he might increase his travelling if he was within striking distance in the last couple of months of the season.

He said, “If I’m within reach of it, I’ll give it a full go.”

The gap had come down to 12 by the end of December.

However, a relatively bleak spell for Fourie was exacerbated by a couple of suspensions and he only had 38 wins in the next three months.

Zackey maintained a steady flow of wins and his 71 wins in that period saw him building up a big lead.

After Sunday’s treble he was 48 wins clear, although both riders have been in fine form this month with Zackey’s 20 wins coming at a strike rate of 27.03% and Fourie’s 17 wins coming at 26.56%.

Zackey’s confidence was buoyed by his win in South Africa’s traditional biggest race last season, the Hollywoodbets Durban July.

It was the career of the great Michael Roberts which illustrated the importance of winning the July. This race eluded him through the 70s, the 80s and much of the 90s until he finally won it in 1997 on the David Ferraris-trained Super Quality and he has shared since then how non-racing people in South Africa judge a jockey on one fact, whether he has won the July or not. It is only racing people who know about the championships and other big race wins.

So with that monkey off his back, Zackey was able to put behind him the disappointment of last season’s championship in which a late suspension put paid to his chances of a first title.

He has enjoyed a lot of feature race success too this season with four Gr 1 wins, including the prestigious L’Ormarins King’s Plate on July winner The Real Prince, four Gr 2 wins, two Gr 3 wins, five Listed wins and four Non-Black Type feature wins.

In all three of his wins on Sunday Zackey displayed his outstanding judgement of pace.

In his first win he was aboard the Candice and Tammy Dawson-trained two-year-old Master Of My Fate filly Doesyourmotherknow in a Maiden Juvenile Plate for fillies over 1400m. The filly had over-raced a bit in her previous start, but that did not stop Zackey from taking her to the front on Sunday. It was his first race ride on her and he had her nice and relaxed on a long rein. She looked in trouble, to some, when the market rival, the grey Erik The Red filly Impressive, who had also relaxed well in the running, swept past her at the 400m mark still in the hands. However, Craig had left plenty in reserve. Doesyourmotherknow fought back and in the end won going away by 1,75 lengths.

In the next race over the same course and distance Zackey relaxed the Lucky Houdalakis-trained Querari gelding Best Candidate from the off and had him moving comfortably on the rail near the back from draw three. It was his first run as a gelding and he had been backed in from 10/1 to 4/1. However, Zackey did not panic when Brave Waam stole a march with the fancied Quevano chasing him, which left Best Candidate with many lengths to make up. In fact Zackey only drew the stick at about the 300m mark. Quevano had caught Brave Waam by the 200m mark and looked like the winner with Best Candidate still having about three lengths to make up. However, Best Candidate ate up the ground in the last 100m, showing that Zackey had once again timed it to perfection, and he got up in the last stride to win by 0,30 lengths.

In the next race over 1600m Zackey found himself one out and one back without cover on Pressonregardless, but managed to relax him on a beautiful long rein in a Pinnacle Stakes race. The gelding had no cover in the straight either, but showed his class by stretching way from the fancied Kisshoten and then under strong urgings from Zackey followed by a deft change of whiphand he managed to repel the  challenge of Sunset Riot to win by 1,20 lengths. Zackey had made all the difference once again.

Craig will be a thoroughly deserving champion if everything goes smoothly enough in the final quarter of the season for him to hold on to his lead.

There will also be a few opportunities for him to build on his Gr 1 record during the Champions Season.

Bass-Robinson Horses (Liesl King)

Changes to the merit ratings

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David Thiselton
The new merit ratings are out from the Gr 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic and the handicappers look to have largely managed to get the merit ratings back to the way they had wanted them after the TAB Gauteng Guineas.
The original line horse used for the Gauteng Guineas was Tin Pan Alley, who was rated 117, whilst the appeal panel decided a more appropriate line horse was the 108-rated Grand Empire.
However,  both of those horses are now Gr 1 winners, with Grand Empire having won the SA Classic on Saturday by a short-head from Trust, and Tin Pan Alley having slammed some of the best in the country by 1,75 lengths when winning the Gr 1 Wilgerbosdrift HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes over 1600m.
The appeal panel’s overall rating of the race thus looked to be too low.
The handicappers have managed to use the evidence from the SA Classic, as well as other factors, to get Trust back to the merit rating they had him on after the Guineas i.e 119 and have changed the ratings of the other runners accordingly.
The ratings look to now have a realistic look to them.
Meanwhile, Tin Pan Alley has been raised ten points to 128 after his impressive Horse Chestnut Stakes victory.
Hazy Dazy remains unchanged on 117 after her cosy win in the Gr 1 Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic.
The NHA press release explained all of the changes to the Gr 1 runners:
WILGERBOSDRIFT H F OPPENHEIMER HORSE CHESTNUT STAKES (GRADE 1)
Three-year-old TIN PAN ALLEY has been awarded a revised merit rating of 128, up from 117, following his emphatic victory in the Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift H F Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes run at weight-for-age over 1600m at Turffontein standside track on Saturday.
In assessing the race, the Handicappers identified the consistent TEXAS RED (third place) as the line horse, leaving his rating unchanged at 119.
TIN PAN ALLEY’S commanding win over 1600m on a yielding track dispelled any doubts about his aptitude for the trip. The Handicappers had already considered him suitable for the distance, having used him as the line horse in the original TAB Gauteng Guineas ratings. However, the TAB Gauteng Guineas was subsequently reduced to a level of 109 following an appeal.
The outcome of the TAB Gauteng Guineas appeal has had significant knock-on effects. The three-year-old cohort that dominated the Guineas was reduced from a level of 121 to 109. TIN PAN ALLEY, who finished fourth in that race, has now gone on to win a Grade 1 WFA event.
Effectively, based on the reduced Guineas level, his performance rating has risen from 104 to 128 in just 28 days. While the Handicappers clearly believe TIN PAN ALLEY improved in this race, the improvement would reasonably be measured from 117 to 128 based on the Handicapper’s original assessment of the Gauteng Guineas.
When rating the Guineas, the Handicappers considered the pecking order of the field, the quality of the race as a Grade 2 event, and fairness from a handicapping perspective to ensure horses would meet on proper handicap terms in future contests. The appeal outcome created distortions, including the subsequent reduction of TRUST’S rating from 119 to 108 – a decision made two runs after his Grade 2 Jackpot City Dingaans victory, which the Handicappers regard as contrary to the principles of handicapping.
TIN PAN ALLY’S performance in this WFA race highlights the strength of this year’s three-year-old crop.
No other horses received upward adjustments in this race. COSMIC SPEED’S rating was reduced slightly, from 124 to 122.
HKJC WORLD POOL SA CLASSIC (GRADE 1)
GRAND EMPIRE, winner of the Grade 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic over 1800m, has had his official merit rating raised from 108 to 120.
The Handicappers unanimously agreed that runner-up TRUST reaffirmed the 119 performance he achieved in the Grade 2 Jackpot City Dingaans last November, where he defeated the 118-rated JAN VAN GOYEN. The Dingaans level remains the officially adopted benchmark for that race.
In the assessment of this race, the Handicappers concluded that TRUST once again performed to that same level of 119. TRUST was used to that mark and was accordingly adjusted to 119.
A collateral line of form with TIN PAN ALLY’S win in the Wilgerbosdrift H F Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes (Grade 1) indicates that the Grade 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic is undervalued, however, the Handicappers do not practise retrospective ratings.
Furthermore, the TRUST appeal panel concluded with the following recommendation: “Following the running of the SA Classic, the Handicappers should re-evaluate the entire three-year-old crop.”
Three additional horses received merit rating increases in this race:
  • SPLITTHEEIGHTS: 109 to 116
  • ONE EYE ON VEGAS: 106 to 115
  • RADIO STAR: 95 to 107
WILGERBOSDRIFT SA FILLIES CLASSIC (GRADE 1)
HAZY DAZY’S official merit rating remained unchanged at 117 after she held off her rivals to win the Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic over 1800m. HAZY DAZY remains 3 points lower that her male counterpart GRAND EMPIRE, which is within the range of the filly’s allowance while keeping her equal to the Western Cape Leading filly WISH LIST, who is also rated 117.
The Handicappers identified LITTLEMISSMILLION as the line horse, leaving her rating unchanged at 107.
Two horses received rating increases based on their margins ahead of the line horse at level weights:
  • SCARLETT HEART (third): 91 to 108
  • DAISY JONES (fourth): 106 to 108

Exciting new July Handicap conditions

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David Thiselton

 

The Hollywoodbets Durban July conditions have been finalised and the final field panellists might be in for an interesting evening before the Final Field And Barrier Draw Ceremony, whilst the three-year-olds look to be on the back foot at present.

 

There will be a longer handicap this year with a 10kg spread in the weights from a topweight of 62kg down to a bottom weight of 52kg.

 

Furthermore, it will just be a straight handicap, unlike recent July conditions in which there was a maximum and minimum weight for certain age groups and genders.

 

If the final field happens to have a spread that is less than 10kg, the topweight will still be 62kg. If, for example, there is a weight spread of 7kg among the entries, then the bottom weight will be 55kg.

 

If the topweights are scratched after the setting of the weights, then the new topweight will be dragged up to 62kg. For example if the topweight after scratchings is 60,5kg, it will be dragged up to 62kg and after the rest of the field have been dragged up the bottom weight will become 53,5kg.

 

The final field will not necessarily be chosen by merit rating order.

 

Justin Vermaak, Executive Racing and Bloodstock of Race Coast, said, “There will be a final field selection panel like before and merit rating will be a leading aspect, but the panel will also take current form and distance suitability into account etc.”

 

In recent years the final field panellists have not had it too tough as the field was cut up before the final field announcement, with a lot of horses being scratched due to the recognition by the connections they do not have much chance, either due to the weights not favouring them or due to them being off form – the final declaration fee could have, in those cases, been considered a waste of money.

 

However, with the longer handicap, there are going to be more horses who still have form chances on paper.

 

Looking at last year’s July for example, third-placed Selukwe was rated 111 and had to carry 54kg due to the condition that the minimum weight for an older male was 54kg. He was thus 2kg under sufferance with the 127-rated topweights, both older horses, and he was 4kg under sufferance with the officially best weighted horse, the 129 rated (nett 125-rated) Eight On Eighteen, who was set to carry 57kg despite being the highest merit rated horse in the race due to a condition that three-year-old males could not carry more than 57kg.

 

In last year’s race Oriental Charm carried 60kg, Eight On Eighteen carried 57kg and Selukwe carried 54kg.

 

Under this year’s conditions the weights for those three horses would have been: Oriental Charm 62kg, Eight On Eighteen 61kg and Selukwe 54kg. Selukwe would have been 2kg and 4kg better off with Oriental Charm and Eight On Eighteen respectively under today’s conditions.

 

He would have been 2kg better off with the winner The Real Prince too and, on paper, would have been beaten 0,30 lengths instead of by 2,65 lengths.

 

There could theoretically have been a horse who would have been even more favoured by today’s conditions than the 111-rated Selukwe example.

 

Using last year’s race under today’s conditions, an older horse who had been rated 107 would sneak into the handicap under today’s conditions.

 

A 107-rated older horse last year would have had to carry 54kg, 6kg less than the topweight, but under today’s conditions it would have only had to carry 52kg, which would be 10kg less than the 62kg topweight.

 

Therefore, there are theoretically going be a lot more horses standing their ground at the time of the final field selection process this year, because a lot more of them will have chances of winning on paper than would have been the case under the old conditions.

 

Furthermore, with stakes of R10 million up for grabs there will be less cases of horses being scratched due to the  connections deeming them to be off form. They might still want to take their chances.

 

The difficulty for the panel will come in deciding whether a lower rated horse is deemed to have better recent form or better distance suitability than a higher rated horse.

 

For argument sakes let’s assume that we go back to last year and there are still many horses standing their ground until the bitter end. After the top 17 are selected, according to the last log and current form, let’s assume the next two horses are the 115-rated Madison Valley and the 120-rated The Real Prince.

 

The Real Prince is rated five points higher than Madison Valley, but he has never run a race beyond 1600m before.

 

Madison Valley on the other hand finished a close fourth in the Betway Summer Cup over 2000m and in his final run before the July he won the traditional July pointer, the Hollywoodbets Dolphins Cup Trial over 1800m.

 

Which one are they going to put in the all important 18th slot?

 

Such a scenario is going to have much more chance of happening this year.

 

Although it has been said that weight avoidance tactics are going to be used this year, those who do take that route are probably going to run a bigger risk of not qualifying than ever before.

 

Now on to the three-year-olds.

 

Eight On Eighteen was held in high regard last year and came into the race 2kg well-in, according to official merit ratings, and yet he was not able to win the race.

 

Under today’s conditions he would have had to carry 61kg, effectively 2kg more.

 

So it was tough last year for a top, top three-year-old who was favoured by the old conditions.

 

How tough will it be for good-but-not-great three-year-olds under the new conditions, considering there is no maximum weight for them and no minimum weight for older horses?

 

Likewise it will be tough for females.

 

Furthermore, this year’s three-year-old crop are arguably overrated off their current merit ratings.

 

For example, Gauteng Guineas runner up Grand Empire could not win the Wolf Power 1600 against older horses when 2kg under sufferance off a 102 merit rating (effectively a 106 merit rating), yet he is now rated 120. There will be cries of “but the handicapper is clueless” when looking at that, but those who do say that are clueless themselves, because the handicapper rates a race on that race, not on past races, and Tin Pan Alley had earned his 117 rating by beating older horses and Grand Empire had then beaten him. Furthermore, Grand Empire was likely not at his peak for the Wolf Power with the Triple crown series looming.

 

Nevertheless, the overall impression is the current three-year-old male crop is not shining and it is questionable whether any of them have properly earned a rating of 120 or above.

 

It could well be an older horse July, but on the other hand there is an impressive unexposed horse like Note To Self among the three-year-olds and more such types might emerge.

 

The build up to this year’s Hollywoodbets Durban July is going to be more intriguing than ever!