Frangipani can post a hat-trick

David Thiselton

A MR 87 Handicap over 2000m for fillies and mares is the headliner at the Vaal Classic track on Thursday and Frangipani could claim a hattrick.

The three-year-old Master Of My fate filly won her last start over 1800m going away under Muzi Yeni and in her previous start she had won over this trip by a comfortable two lengths under Calvin Habib. She has been highly tried during the season and running off a 90 merit rating, five points higher than in her last start, she could still be ahead of the handicapper. She has landed a plum draw of two and Calvin Habib is back aboard.

Art Nouvea can beat Frangipani on the evidence of formlines, but she is drawn one outside of her which could be a telling factor. However, if able to find a good position early she could be the one to beat.

Azaleas For All is half-a-kilogram better off with Frangipani for a 1,40 length beating if the 1,5kg claim of Mickaelle Michel is taken into account, otherwise she is 2kg better off. Gavin  Lerena is up, which is a bonus, but she does have a tricky draw of six to overcome.

Surprise Party has a tough task with Azaleas All on their clash over 1800m in March and the latter also comes out ahead on the form of their recent clash over 2000m, in which she beat Azaleas All by 0,55 lengths. Surprise Party is drawn in pole though. She was outclassed in a Gr 3 last time, so should be in the shake up back in an ordinary handicap.

Lady Sabrina is an interesting runner because although this Erupt filly is out of a Captain Al mare, that mare is in turn out of a Galileo mare, so she might have the stamina capacity for this trip. She was eight lengths back in her only try at this trip more than a year ago, but she was only 2,30 lengths back when being tried over 1800m in August last year and she is from a yard known for their expertise in staying races.

Juliet Tango is a capable sort and has a comfortable win over 1800m at the Classic Track to her name. However, she does have a tough draw of nine out of  nine and is the sort who needs things to go her way. Kaidan Brewer rides.

Those are the ones who make most appeal.

In the first leg of the Pick 6 over 1600m Duke Of Lorraine looks to have scope for improvement and from pole position this time his late run could put him in the winner’s enclosure, as opposed to him being a touch green and making late progress. Vixeninthevineyard rallied in eyecatching style over this trip last time when caught late and she came back for second place. That was the first time Calvin Habib had ridden this hard-knocking maiden and from another plum draw she should put in a bold bid. Crimson Ranger looks to have plenty of scope for improvement and should be running on over a suitable trip after being dropped out. Gavin Lerena will help him overcome a tough draw.

In the sixth race over 2000m the Vercingetorix filly Chariklo, who has improved since the blinkers were applied, will have a fine chance from pole position. On pedigree she should see it out, being out of a Jallad mare who won over 1600m and was placed over 2200m. Her form confirms that because last time she had to be used up early from a wide draw over 1700m and was caught one out and one back without cover and yet still stayed on to finish a close second. She has won over 1800m before too.

Her stablemate Be My Fate was narrowly behind her last time and also when the latter won over 1800m and she should be there again if able to overcome a wide draw.

Kylie’s Angel ran a fair race from a tricky draw last time over 1600m and the cheekpieces now go on. She sneaks into the handicap with the minimum weight, has a slightly better draw and is interesting stepped up to this trip for the first time being by Vercingetorix out of a Giant’s Cuaseway mare.

In the seventh over 2000m Last Ginger stays this trip and has come down the merit ratings based on runs over shorter, so she will be dangerous from a plum draw over this trip. Erik The Red two-year-old gelding Cover Charge is a half-brother to Gr 1 Daily News winner Surcharge, who went on to win a Gr 1 in Australia, and having won well when stepped up to 1800m last time he can go close stepped up again to 2000m off an 82 merit rating. Thambi is a bit in and out but from pole position over a suitable trip he could make his presence felt.

In the eighth over 1000m Twentytwentyvision is drawn higher than the number one drawn Hammer Blow and that could be the separating factor over a course and distance that favours high draws. Arilena could also be in the shake up.

In the last race over 1450m Lady Elliot is well drawn over a suitable trip and with Gavin Lerena up can convert her good recent form over this trip into a victory.  Satyahraha gets Keagan de Melo up from a good draw and off a merit rating lowered another point she should go close. Pretty Analia has been in fine form with her devastating runs from off the pace and she should be flying at them late, although she would prefer further. .

In the third race over 1200m Two Tigers is knocking hard and from a fair draw is the one to beat.

In the second over 1200m Tenareef ran a cracker last time over this trip at Hollywoodbets Greyville and looks the one to beat. Mocha Magic is by Rafeef and is a half-brother to the dual Listed winner I Salute You, so is an interesting runner on debut with champion jockey elect Craig Zackey up.

In the first race over 1200m Rafeef’s Queen is the one to beat on form and Gavin Lerena can help her overcome a tricky draw. Pretty Girl is by Rafeef out of the Gr 1 winner Happy Archer and she is an interesting debutant under Zackey.

On the beach with Coast Of The Sun

Andrew Harrison

Coast Of The Sun missed the bus as far as the two-year-old features went this season, but he is likely to be in front of the queue to catch the next one given his performance at Hollywoodbets Scottville yesterday.

Not having run since shedding his maiden in May, the son of Hawwaam  was entitled to be ring-rusty but Tienie Prinsloo, who cut his teeth in the competitive climbs of the now defunct Flamingo Park, was never going to run the colt in a race that he could not win.

There was some money for Ricky Maingard’s charge Klein Karoo but Coast Of The Sun was never challenged at the top of the boards and Tristan Godden, riding at the top of his game, quickly found the rail after the start and gave Coast Of The Sun the perfect ride.

It was clear a long way out that Coast Of The Sun was all at sea as the older and more experienced  Klein Karoo pressed forward but ears flat and asking for some guidance from the saddle, victory was never in doubt.

A stunning specimen, Prinsloo intimated that a trip to Cape Town for their Summer season may be on the cards but be that as it may, Coast Of The Sun is one for the notebook.

Mike and Mathew de Kock took the wraps off a trio of smart colts in the first three races and all three look to be heading in the right direction.

All were racing in the now familiar Hollywoodracing silks that will be crowned Champion Owners this season with their tally up to 178 come the close at the end of the week.

In the card opener, the two fancied runners Scots Wae Hae and Lenoxx took each other on for most of the race and just when Lenoxx looked to assert his authority Scots Wae Hae found an extra gear to get past and win going away.

Stable rider Gavin Lerena was of the opinion that 1000m was at the bottom of  the colt’s range and a step up in trip is on the cards.

Next up it was Gimme A Fireball and it appears that the son of Gimmethegreenlight lives up to his name at home. Mike de Kock said that they had held off ‘picking his pockets’ because of his pedigree but he was not an easy horse to work with. “He’s a bit of a meneer,” he said and complimented jockey Sean Veale for doing all the hard work in keeping the lid the colt.

He made short work of his rivals as he strode away to a four-length victory and the family jewels should be safe for the immediate future at least.

Sparrow Man completed the stable hattrick. Stepping up to a mile after an eye-catching sprint debut, he showed plenty of potential as he quickened away from his rivals to win as he liked. There were still signs that the penny having not quite dropped but he won well enough to suggest that the De Kock’s and Hollywoodracing can look forward to a potentially stellar season that starts on Saturday with the unbeaten Gr1 Gold Medalion winner Haute Couture also in the yard.

 Apprentice Damyan Pillay rode his 40th  winner and is down to a 1.5kg claim after booting home Soho Celebrity for Yogas Govender in the fourth. Magical Spring set a searching gallop with Pillay keeping a close eye and poaching the lead at just the right moment as Magical Spring faded. Favourite Blenheim Palace was out with the washing in the early exchanges but made up a huge amount of ground rapidly in the straight. At one point it looked as if he would pass Soho Celebrity but came up empty over the final furlong and not getting home as Soho Celebrity kept on finding.

Lucinda Woodruff rounded off an exceptional three months of Champion Season campaign as the heavily backed Sohot Sowhat gave Gavin Lerena his third winner of the afternoon in the Middle Stakes but it was a close-run thing with Lerena showing why he is paid the big bucks.

He will have worked out that Tara Star, drawn on his inside, had plenty of speed so he was content for her to lead him on. Maybe what he didn’t count on is Darryl Moore’s mare staying on doggedly and he was forced to call on maximum to get his filly home ahead of Tara Star and land the gamble.

It’s seldom that you see a Kannemeyer horse going to the front. The seasoned trainer generally likes to see his runners charge from off the pace. It didn’t quite pan out earlier for Blenheim Palace who came up short but stable rider Craig Zackey changed tactics on Spirit Of Shimla and led all the way to win the Class 4 and was never for the catching.

Cole Dicken tried his best to copy Zackey in the last as he allowed Gardeners Pride to take a hold of the bit and make all the running, but try as he may Yadav Singh’s gelding was not able to hold off the challenge from Double Olympic who gave Govender a double on the day.

Vaal Classic Thursday 30 July 2026 – Comments by Brendan Gaillard

RACE 1

RAFEEF’S QUEEN outran market expectations last time when improving with the benefit of an introductory outing to finish second over 1000m. She is open to further progress and could have more to offer over this extended trip. MISS HONEY BEE has shown enough in two Eastern Cape appearances to warrant respect on her Highveld debut, though a bigger threat to the selection will likely come from well-bred newcomers NAVIGATRIX and PRETTY GIRL – watch the betting for clues. VOLARE VELOCE is another debutante to keep an eye on.

RACE 2

TENAREEF has shown promise in both outings and sets the standard on the strength of his form. He’s one of just four runners in the race with experience and that will stand him in good stead. Newcomers MOCHA MAGIC and RED VIKING are well-related colts worth keeping an eye on – betting support would be noteworthy. CAPTAIN COOPER should be more effective reverting to this shorter trip so could have a role to play. REACHINGFORTHEMOON, HAWKEYE and CHIC SHACK are others worth a market check on debut.

RACE 3

TWO TIGERS has maintained his form and consistency against older opposition recently up to 1450m. He won’t need to improve much – if at all – over this shorter trip to open his account. BERRY LANCER is closely matched with that rival on the form of their 1200m meeting on 7 May so should be competitive. Older 3yo filly BEAUTIFUL ONE has the form and experience to also play a role. Newcomers DREADNOUGHT, PITTAR and WALKINGINTHEWOODS are bred to be useful so warrant respect, especially if the market speaks in their favour. Follow the betting moves.

RACE 4

DUKE OF LORRAINE confirmed the promise of his 1400m debut by finishing a close-up third last time in a similar contest and a similar performance should suffice against this opposition. CRIMSON RANGER improved to finish third in a 2yo maiden over this trip and should be competitive with further progress on the cards. VIXENINTHEVINEYARD has been costly to follow but has form and experience to trouble the 2yo principals. ECHO OF THE WILD, GUS ON THE BUS and UNCLE BOB have shown enough to earn a cheque.

RACE 5

FRANGIPANI won her only 2000m appearance then followed up last time at this level off a career-high mark. She has another 5-point penalty to carry but is in rude health and could improve sufficiently to complete the hat-trick. AZALEAS FOR ALL and stablemate BOOM BOOM are weighted to pose more of a threat, while class-dropper SURPRISE PARTY should also make her presence felt back in same-sex company. Bottom-weight ART NOUVEAU and JULIET TANGO (blinkers removed) also have the means to play a role in the outcome.

RACE 6

BOLD ACTION had legitimate excuses last time and is the only runner in the lineup to have won over 2000m. COCOMELON, PLAY WITH FIRE and WISE COUNSEL are closely matched on the form of a recent 1800m meeting and there shouldn’t be much separating them on these terms. The latter is open to any amount of improvement stretching out to this trip for the first time, though the same applies to UTSAAH and several others including CHARIKLO and BE MY FATE. The lightly raced latter is better off at the weights with her stable companion so could represent the value in the race. HOPSCOTCH is respected too.

RACE 7

COVER CHARGE opened his account last time when stepped up to 1800m with this headgear fitted. He remains open to improvement stretching out to this extended trip so should be competitive on handicap debut. Top-weight ITSNOWORNEVER has references at a slightly higher level and his last start is best ignored. On the strength and consistency of his earlier form, he should fight out the finish. STOP THE TRAFFIC, CIRCLE OF GRACE, FULL GO and THAMBI are hard-knockers with earning potential.

RACE 8

TWENTYTWENTYVISION boasts solid form at a higher level off his current mark so should be competitive, even under top weight. Distance-suited HAMMER BLOW was second over track and trip in a stronger race last time and should feature prominently with a similar performance, as the 3-point rise for that effort is negated by his rider’s 1.5kg claim. CHAMPAGNE PROBLEMS, TIME WILL TELL and ARILENA have earning potential too.

RACE 9

A case can be made for several of these but none appeal more than class-dropper SATYAGRAHA whose career-low mark and favourable inside gate make him an attractive betting proposition. LADY ELLIOT is consistent at this level and ideally drawn to play a leading role. JABARI THIMBA, SNOW MOON and ELUSIVE RED are competitive in this grade off their current ratings but awkwardly drawn, so they will need luck from their respective barriers. Veteran mares PRETTY ANALIA and CAN’T CATCH ME are closely matched on recent form and also have the means to get involved. Quartet race.

First Gr 1 winner for Paardeberg Stud

David Thiselton

On Sunday at Hollywoodbets Greyville Erik Dubois not only gave Louis Goosen a first Gr 1 victory in 35 years of training, but also gave Varsfontein-based sire Erik The Red a first Gr 1 winner and he gave Paardeberg Stud, who are the newest stud farm in the country, a first Gr 1 winner with their first crop to race.

The Laurence Wernars family-owned gelding is officially bred by the American racing man Dr Alan Miller.

However, Paardeberg stud manager Sally Bruss explained, “Erik Dubois’ mother Comtesse Dubois was Barry Irwin’s mare, but he gave her to Dr Alan Miller, who is a New York physician. When Barry’s mares moved to me in Tulbagh, Comtesse Dubois came along as well. Later she and Barry’s mares moved with me to Sorrento Stud and then from Sorrento to Paardeberg. However Dr. Alan Miller, having only one mare in South Africa, lost interest and asked me if I would like the mare. I said I would love the mare. She had been a disappointing mare until then and she had this foal at foot, but I took her. The foal at foot was Erik Dubois.”

Sally had made the decision to send Comtesse Du Bois to Erik The Red.

She continued, “We raised Erik Dubois and took him to the Sales (he fetched R375,000 at the 2025 March Yearling Sale). Comtesse Dubois has a United States foal going to the October Cape Sale and she has a very nice Expert Eye colt. Comtesse Dubois was actually a good race filly and should have been a better broodmare.”

Comtesse Dubois is by Count Dubois out of twice-winning Rakeen mare Katherine, who was a half-sister to the top class Count Dubois colt Biarritz. As a racehorse she won four times, including the Listed Laisserfaire Stakes over 1100m, and she had a Listed place and three Graded places from 1200m up to 1400m.

At stud she has to date had four winners from eight runners and Erik Dubois is her first black type progeny.

Erik Dubois was a November foal and Comtesse Dubois’ next two foals were also latecomers, but after a season’s break it would be no surprise to see Sally sending her back to Erik The Red.

Goosen gets his first Gr 1 moment

David Thiselton

One of the feel good stories of the World Pool Gold Cup meeting was the Gr 1 World Pool Moment Of The Day Champion Stakes victory of the Erik The Red gelding Erik Dubois, who gave Laurence Wernars and family a fifth Gr 1 victory of the season, achieved with four individual horses.

The giant horse secured a first Gr 1 win in 35 years of training for Louis Goosen.

Goosen’s had said in the build up, “He is still a soft, big boy, but he is coming on all the time. You will see the best of him at three, but I think he is a huge, huge runner in the Champion Stakes on Sunday.”

Louis’ hopes soared on course in one particular, surreal moment.

He recalled, “I was standing next to Kurt Felix in the parade ring while my horse Ferrari Flair was going down for the second, when I looked around and saw Erik Dubois standing on his own after being taken off the float. It was almost as if he was an apparition. I said to Kurt, ‘Look at this!’ I could see he had tightened up and I told Kurt, ‘If I ever wanted to peak a horse it is today and I have peaked him!’ Then I knew.”

However, when asked if he was still confident at race time, he quipped, “No, I was taking immodiums and praying!”

He continued, “You have to understand I have had quite a few Gr 1 seconds, thirds and fourths over the years with a small string. The one year we had won the Gr 2 SA Fillies Nursery with Waywest Goddess and come down for the Gr 1 Allan Robertson. We went down to the line and heads up, heads down Chocolicious gets us in the last stride, so on Sunday when Duncan Howell’s horse starts coming back at us I was saying, ‘No, not again!”

Erik Dubois at over 600kg was the second heaviest horse at the meeting, despite being a two-year-old, and everything panned out perfectly for him.

Drawn three, the number two horse was a late scratching leaving the gate on his inside empty, which allowed Lyle Hewitson space to get big horse settled in the early stages. Hewitson is used to riding without false rails in Hong Kong and stuck to a one wide position. After the field had sorted itself out he found himself in a perfect position, one wide with cover, nothing on his outside and just forward of midfield.

As Louis said, “He was absolutely cantering, he looked like he was on the bottom track here at Summerveld!”

Hewitson switched him out at the top of the straight and after the big bay had gathered himself he began making up ground hand over fist.

He got into a stirring, eyeballing tussle with Kazenoyoni in the last 150m, but to the neutral observer he always had the latter’s measure. His stride is enormous and Hewitson had reserved the whip until he had reached Kazenoyoni. He then got Erik Dubois into full stretch in the closing stages with some left handed smacks and he got up by a cosy 0,30 lengths.

“Unbelievable ride,” said Louis. “and It was a very, very emotional moment.”

Louis was clearly lyrical in the parade ring and close to tears as he thanked Laurence Wernars, but despite the excitement he remembered his duty as a trainer in the lead in.

He said, “I stood back and ensured all the owners had a hand on the lead rope. But the horse then stopped and stood stock still when he heard all the noise from the grandstand. I stepped forward and said to him, ‘It’s ok, boy’. He immediately walked forward after hearing the familiar reassuring voice. But that is what kind of horse he is.”

Louis revealed that he often talks to his horses.

He said, “My horses are lovely to talk to, they don’t argue you know! So I went to talk to Erik last Wednesday evening and I said to Lauren ‘Come and make a video I want to send it to Laurence’. I said on the video, ‘Laurence, this horse is 33/1 but on Sunday I am going to win a Gr 1 for you. But I am going to ask you for three things if I do that .. Number one is a flight on your Lear Jet back to Jo’Burg so I can go and see my son in Pretoria. No. 2 I want to choose where the trophy stands in your box. And three is to send me a horse or two.'”

Louis went on a fishing excursion with Richard Fourie et al last Thursday and he said, “When we got off the boat one of them told me, ‘Your horse has shortened!’ I’m not sure where the money came from!”

Erik Dubois started as short as 14/1.

Louis thought it ironic and most gratifying that a man he has immense respect for, Mike de Kock, was to present him with the trophy.

He recalled, “The day Waywest Goddess was pipped Mike was standing next to me in the parade ring and said, ‘I think you got it, Goose’. But the slow motion replay then showed we’d lost. So it was great Mike was now here again to present the trophy.”

Louis association with Erik Dubois started when he was granted money by Race Coast for their pinhooking scheme. After he had secured the horse he was after at the Race Coast Sales auction, he asked Race Coast’s Justin Vermaak for another pinhooking grant as he had spotted Erik Dubois.

He recalled, “He looked good and used himself well and got his hocks down.”

He secured Erik Dubois too and after he had done his normal introduction training, which he calls “bone density” exercises, he phoned Justin Vermaak, who is the racing manager for Laurence Wernars, and told  him this horse looked so good he might be interested.

It turned out Vermaak had also liked him at the Sale.

To cut a long story short Laurence ended up purchasing him from Louis and he kept the latter on as trainer.

Louis would never give a young horse, especially a big one, a holiday in a paddock as it can interrupt the bone density progression. So he will now give Erik Dubois an easy time, but keep in regular exercise, and his possible targets include Highveld Spring season races like the Spring Challenge and Graham Beck.

Soccer updates and carryovers – Thursday 30 July, Friday 31 July and Saturday 1 August 2026

Soccer13 Thursday 30 July 2026. Carryover R1 494 562. R4 Million (If only One 13 of 13 Winner). Pool Closes at 18h30. Sport 11 Pool 1.

Soccer10 Friday 31 July 2026. Carryover R200 000. Estimated Pool: R2 Million. Pool Closes at 20h30.Sport 15 and Pool 1.

Soccer6 Saturday 1 August 2026. ADD-IN R75 000. Estimated Pool: R500 000. Pool Closes at 15h00. Sport 1 Pool 1.

Soccer10 Saturday 1 August 2026. Carryover R200 000. Estimated Pool: R2 Million. Pool Closes at 15h00.Sport 16 and Pool 1.

Soccer13 Saturday 1 August 2026. R17 Million (If only One 13 of 13 Winner). Pool Closes at 15h30. Sport 10 Pool 1.

Soccer Any13X on Saturday 1 August 2026. ADD-IN R100 000. Estimated Pool: R250 000. Pool Closes at 15h00. Sport 13 and Pool 1.

Direct equine flights to the UK now permitted

In exciting news for the South African horseracing industry it has been announced the UK have opened a direct equine export route from South Africa, which cements two-way trade for the SA Equine Industry.

SA Equine Health & Protocols NPC (SAEHP) sent out the following press release:

UK Opens Direct Equine Export Route from South Africa, Cementing Two-Way Trade for SA Equine Industry

Cape Town, 15 July 2026 — SA Equine Health & Protocols NPC (SAEHP) is pleased to announce that the British Government has confirmed a decision permitting direct import of live horses from South Africa to Great Britain. Following a positive assessment of South Africa’s disease control measures, imports will be permitted from the approved vector-protected quarantine station in Cape Town, for registered equines complying with UK import conditions.

This milestone reflects sustained collaboration between SAEHP, the South African Department of Agriculture, and the Western Cape Department of Agriculture — a powerful demonstration of this public-private partnership’s success in maintaining South Africa’s equine disease control measures to the highest international standard and translating that credibility into real market access.

The announcement follows closely on South Africa’s opening of imports from Dubai, New Zealand, and Australia earlier this year -making genuine two-way trade a reality for the South African equine industry.

Adrian Todd, Managing Director of SAEHP, thanked the Hong Kong Jockey Club for its funding, technical support, and vision in opening South Africa to the world, noting that the growing number of trade partners now opens a world of opportunity for South Africa across all equestrian disciplines.

About SAEHP:SA Equine Health & Protocols NPC is a South African public-private partnership established to ensure the sustainability and security of the African Horse Sickness control zones through risk mitigation measures and controls, operating under the authority of the South African National Director of Animal Health in partnership with the National Department of Agriculture and the Western Cape Department of Agriculture.

Exciting new July Handicap conditions

David Thiselton

 

The Hollywoodbets Durban July conditions have been finalised and the final field panellists might be in for an interesting evening before the Final Field And Barrier Draw Ceremony, whilst the three-year-olds look to be on the back foot at present.

 

There will be a longer handicap this year with a 10kg spread in the weights from a topweight of 62kg down to a bottom weight of 52kg.

 

Furthermore, it will just be a straight handicap, unlike recent July conditions in which there was a maximum and minimum weight for certain age groups and genders.

 

If the final field happens to have a spread that is less than 10kg, the topweight will still be 62kg. If, for example, there is a weight spread of 7kg among the entries, then the bottom weight will be 55kg.

 

If the topweights are scratched after the setting of the weights, then the new topweight will be dragged up to 62kg. For example if the topweight after scratchings is 60,5kg, it will be dragged up to 62kg and after the rest of the field have been dragged up the bottom weight will become 53,5kg.

 

The final field will not necessarily be chosen by merit rating order.

 

Justin Vermaak, Executive Racing and Bloodstock of Race Coast, said, “There will be a final field selection panel like before and merit rating will be a leading aspect, but the panel will also take current form and distance suitability into account etc.”

 

In recent years the final field panellists have not had it too tough as the field was cut up before the final field announcement, with a lot of horses being scratched due to the recognition by the connections they do not have much chance, either due to the weights not favouring them or due to them being off form – the final declaration fee could have, in those cases, been considered a waste of money.

 

However, with the longer handicap, there are going to be more horses who still have form chances on paper.

 

Looking at last year’s July for example, third-placed Selukwe was rated 111 and had to carry 54kg due to the condition that the minimum weight for an older male was 54kg. He was thus 2kg under sufferance with the 127-rated topweights, both older horses, and he was 4kg under sufferance with the officially best weighted horse, the 129 rated (nett 125-rated) Eight On Eighteen, who was set to carry 57kg despite being the highest merit rated horse in the race due to a condition that three-year-old males could not carry more than 57kg.

 

In last year’s race Oriental Charm carried 60kg, Eight On Eighteen carried 57kg and Selukwe carried 54kg.

 

Under this year’s conditions the weights for those three horses would have been: Oriental Charm 62kg, Eight On Eighteen 61kg and Selukwe 54kg. Selukwe would have been 2kg and 4kg better off with Oriental Charm and Eight On Eighteen respectively under today’s conditions.

 

He would have been 2kg better off with the winner The Real Prince too and, on paper, would have been beaten 0,30 lengths instead of by 2,65 lengths.

 

There could theoretically have been a horse who would have been even more favoured by today’s conditions than the 111-rated Selukwe example.

 

Using last year’s race under today’s conditions, an older horse who had been rated 107 would sneak into the handicap under today’s conditions.

 

A 107-rated older horse last year would have had to carry 54kg, 6kg less than the topweight, but under today’s conditions it would have only had to carry 52kg, which would be 10kg less than the 62kg topweight.

 

Therefore, there are theoretically going be a lot more horses standing their ground at the time of the final field selection process this year, because a lot more of them will have chances of winning on paper than would have been the case under the old conditions.

 

Furthermore, with stakes of R10 million up for grabs there will be less cases of horses being scratched due to the  connections deeming them to be off form. They might still want to take their chances.

 

The difficulty for the panel will come in deciding whether a lower rated horse is deemed to have better recent form or better distance suitability than a higher rated horse.

 

For argument sakes let’s assume that we go back to last year and there are still many horses standing their ground until the bitter end. After the top 17 are selected, according to the last log and current form, let’s assume the next two horses are the 115-rated Madison Valley and the 120-rated The Real Prince.

 

The Real Prince is rated five points higher than Madison Valley, but he has never run a race beyond 1600m before.

 

Madison Valley on the other hand finished a close fourth in the Betway Summer Cup over 2000m and in his final run before the July he won the traditional July pointer, the Hollywoodbets Dolphins Cup Trial over 1800m.

 

Which one are they going to put in the all important 18th slot?

 

Such a scenario is going to have much more chance of happening this year.

 

Although it has been said that weight avoidance tactics are going to be used this year, those who do take that route are probably going to run a bigger risk of not qualifying than ever before.

 

Now on to the three-year-olds.

 

Eight On Eighteen was held in high regard last year and came into the race 2kg well-in, according to official merit ratings, and yet he was not able to win the race.

 

Under today’s conditions he would have had to carry 61kg, effectively 2kg more.

 

So it was tough last year for a top, top three-year-old who was favoured by the old conditions.

 

How tough will it be for good-but-not-great three-year-olds under the new conditions, considering there is no maximum weight for them and no minimum weight for older horses?

 

Likewise it will be tough for females.

 

Furthermore, this year’s three-year-old crop are arguably overrated off their current merit ratings.

 

For example, Gauteng Guineas runner up Grand Empire could not win the Wolf Power 1600 against older horses when 2kg under sufferance off a 102 merit rating (effectively a 106 merit rating), yet he is now rated 120. There will be cries of “but the handicapper is clueless” when looking at that, but those who do say that are clueless themselves, because the handicapper rates a race on that race, not on past races, and Tin Pan Alley had earned his 117 rating by beating older horses and Grand Empire had then beaten him. Furthermore, Grand Empire was likely not at his peak for the Wolf Power with the Triple crown series looming.

 

Nevertheless, the overall impression is the current three-year-old male crop is not shining and it is questionable whether any of them have properly earned a rating of 120 or above.

 

It could well be an older horse July, but on the other hand there is an impressive unexposed horse like Note To Self among the three-year-olds and more such types might emerge.

 

The build up to this year’s Hollywoodbets Durban July is going to be more intriguing than ever!