Please Note: Hollywoodbets Greyville 2 May 2026: Net Pick6 Carryover R500 000, Race 4 off at 13h50 – Estimated pool R3 Million.
Category Archives: Racing News
South African Quartet Pools with fractional betting offered at Kempton and Lingfield (UK) – 30 April 2026
Please Note: South African Quartet Pools with fractional betting offered at Kempton and Lingfield (UK) – 30 April 2026.
Turffontein Inside Thursday 30 April 2026 – Comments by Brendan Gaillard
RACE 1
INDECENT OBSESSION attracted some betting support when finishing third on debut behind ELUSIVE DRAGON over 1000m, though that rival did have the advantage of an introductory outing and the former could improve sufficiently to turn the tables. COSMIC CAP and REVITALISE will also know more about it after underwhelming debut outings but a bigger threat will likely come from newcomers TIMELESS and MOETHEMONEYMAN, especially if the market speaks in their favour.
RACE 2
Well-bred ROYAL TIARA justified strong betting support when finishing third on debut against winners. She would’ve come on with the benefit of that experience and, with any improvement, could prove too good for these maiden rivals. SABALENKA was a beaten short-priced favourite last time but that was in open company and she will be more competitive against her contemporaries. STORM AVALANCHE and PISTA RESISTANCE made encouraging debuts and should improve to make their presence felt.
RACE 3
MOANA confirmed the promise of her debut second by going one better in a winners’ race last time over 1400m. With improvement expected over this extended trip, it could pay to follow her progress. SNAP YOUR FINGERS gets 3kg from that rival and, on pedigree, should also enjoy the step up to 1600m after an encouraging debut over shorter. Recently gelded LONE HORIZON, whose last-start victory was franked by the subsequent success of re-opposing WHAT A WARRIOR, and DEAR DOC also have the form and experience to be competitive.
RACE 4
WINDS OF GRACE is battling to win but deserves to get her head in front again after four consecutive runner-up finishes. She has proven form against male opposition so gets the nod. Class-dropper REDLIGHTGREENLIGHT and veteran GOLDEN ASPEN are competitive at this level off their current marks, as is WAR REPORTER who would’ve tightened up after a pleasing comeback run in a similar contest.
RACE 5
Cases can be made for most of these, though none appeal more than GOLDEN WARRIOR whose latest outing at a higher level was full of merit. He represents value in these calmer waters off a career-low mark. Older hard-knockers GIMMEACHOICE, DECEPTION PASS and DUAL PROPHECY have the means to play leading roles, as do veterans CARNELO and ARUMUGAM off their current ratings. WORLD OF ROYALTY and improving last-start maiden winner TERRENCE are maturing 3yo geldings with scope for improvement and could get into the picture too.
RACE 6
THE AFRICA HOUSE was a close-up third off a higher mark in a similar contest 2 starts back and proved that was no fluke with a good fourth in a strong handicap last time. A repeat of either performance could suffice. Hat-trick seeking PAUL REVERE was successful at this level in his penultimate start and remains competitive under a penalty. KAMENSKY, SLINKY MAPIMPI and A BIT OF CLASS return from respective absences but are weighted to be competitive. RADICCHIO and IMPERIAL MASTER appeal most of the remainder.
RACE 7
LEAD THE CHARGE is better than his last start over 1000m suggests and will appreciate this slight step up in trip. He finished ahead of VIBE SA in his previous start and is weighted to get the better of that rival again. Promising 3yo QUICKFREEZE remains open to improvement and has shown enough to make his presence felt after a short freshen-up. Top-weight PALACE PRINCE, consistent NIGHT BOMBER and bottom-weight AFRICAN PRINCE are also competitive on current form.
RACE 8
ROCK OF BISMANTOVA sprung a 33-1 surprise when winning a similar contest last time but a 3-point penalty and top-weight 61.5kg makes this a tougher assignment. DANTE’S BOND is closely matched on that form and should turn the tables on the revised weight terms, especially with improvement expected in his peak outing. Last-start maiden winners SOSORU and HAT’S MAMBO are 3yo geldings with scope for further progress, so they could have roles to play on handicap debut. Filly TRADITONAL BELIEF completes the shortlist.
RACE 9
MRS STORMIATRIX was a dominant winner on handicap debut last time and could improve sufficiently to complete the hat-trick under a hefty 8-point penalty. BLINDFIRE and KIA KAHA have a bit to find on that form but should get closer on better weight terms. ANGEL’S OASIS is 5.5kg better off with last-start conqueror BLINDFIRE so should be competitive too. TEMPRANILLO, JAZZ PIANIST and improving last-start winner WINGS OF KILDRA are lightly raced 3yo fillies with scope for further progress, so they could get into the picture too.
The Africa House the one to beat
David Thiselton
The Turffontein Standside meeting today has nine competitive races and there could be some decent dividends.
The highest rated race is the sixth, a Middle Stakes event over 1400m and the one to beat could be The Africa House. This What A Winter gelding has his fifth start for the astute trainer Tyrone Zackey, and as he has improved in his last two starts, going close in both, he can be right there from a fair draw of five, especially considering he is one of the best weighted males in the race. A Bit Of Class is the best weighted runner and has her third run after a layoff. She has got plenty of class and would not be a surprise winner. Erupt gelding Paul Revere has turned out to be a 1400m specialist and after an easy win last time over 1450m on the Inside track, he was raised seven points to 92. He is just one point off the top of his merit rating band and is officially only half-a-kilogram out with the best weighted males, although he is 2,5kg out with the best weighted runner, the filly A Bit Of Class. However, 2,5kg claimer Blaine Marx-Jacobson stays aboard and that is a bonus as this rider has come from nowhere to be leading apprentice such has been the rich vein of form he has found since relocating to the Highveld. Richard Fourie will be aboard the consistent Kamensky, who is one of the best weighted males and he is versatile so will enjoy this trip. He is drawn in pole, but does have a big weight of 62kg to carry and this is first apppearance for eight months. Craig Zackey takes the ride on the talented Slinky Mapimpi, who is likely going to try and get to the front from a wide draw. If he gets there without using up too much energy he will be dangerous.
The seventh is a MR 96 handicap over 1160m and Lead The Charge has the form to go close under Marx-Jacobson. The chief concern though is his low draw of three but the bias has not been that noticeable overall this season. The talented Quickfreeze will be a threat. He would prefer further but from a high draw he could mow them down late. African Prince is knocking on the door and although not having an easy task with Vibe SA, being only 2,5kg better off for a 3,5 length beating, he has a nice high draw and could be in the shake up. Palace Prince has not been disgraced against good sorts in his last two sprint starts and he has a chance as long as low draws do not prove to be a major disadvantage. Night Bomber ran well after a layoff last time and can run well here again after another short layoff. Secret Chord was most disappointing last time, but he is talented and can never be ignored. Vibe SA has to be considered too.
In the first leg of the Pick 6 over 1600m Winds Of Grace is a nice type and the form of her last second, beaten 2,20 lengths, was franked when the winner Kensal Green came out and won next time out by an easy 3,30 lengths off an 83 merit rating. She runs off a 72 and will go close if able to overcome a tricky draw of eight. War Reporter ran a good race over 1700m last time and from a good draw of two should make a bold bid. Blood Of Eden was raised three points for his win over 1800m last time, but looks capable of being competitive again in this line up. Golden Aspen is well drawn and is interesting tried over 1600m again. Redlightgreenlight will enjoy the step down in trip and is drawn in pole.
In the fifth race over 1800m World Of Royalty can progress again as he is very much suited to the Turffontein Standside course and is drawn in pole. Page Boy last ran in January, but looked to be a progressive sort and he might have benefited from the layoff. The form of his win over 1700m that day has worked out exceptionally well. Terrence won well in the maidens and off a 78 merit rating has a chance.
In the eighth race over 1160m Sosoru won well in the maidens and starts off handicapping off a reasonable 81. Traditional Belief should go close dropping back in trip as long as low draws are not a major disadvantage. Saketini also makes appeal on form but also has quite a low draw.
In the last race over 1000m Mrs Stormiatrix is on the up and can clinch a hattrick. from a nice high draw. The honest Blindfire is distance suited and has a nice draw and she goes well for Blaine Marx-Jacobson, so should be in the shake up. Kia Kaha has more ability than his form suggests but off a lowered merit rating and from a high draw over an ideal trip he could be involved with the gender allowance of the excellent Mickaelle Michel being another bonus.
In the first leg of the PA over 1600m What A Warrior looks to be going places and can do well from a good draw over a suitable step up in trip. Moana won well second time out over 1400m and will enjoy this step up in trip. Snap Your Fingers will relish the step up in trip and will be dangerous carrying a light weight as a female and a non-winner.
In the first race over 1160m Elusive Dragon can confirm form with Indecent Obsession, although this race won’t take a lot of winning so the two first-timers’ betting must be monitored. Cosmic Cap was a talking horse on debut and disappointed but look for improvement.
In the 2nd race over 1160m Royal Tiara came in for support on debut and ran a fair third. Storm Avalanche was 4,40 lengths behind the talented Alice B Toklas and could be the chief threat.
‘Rich Man has world at his feet’
Andrew Harrison
Vaughan Marshall mostly gave last year’s Champions Season a miss due to a lack of ‘ammunition’ but he is back with a bang. Questioning fired a warning salvo and could well follow up in the Gr2 Independent On Saturday Drill Hall Stakes this coming Saturday but possibly more explosive was Rich Man’s World who was a stunning winner of the Gr3 Godolphin Barb Stakes at Hollywoodbets Scottsville yesterday.
The race was billed as a match between the two unbeaten colts Master Magician and Rich Man’s World but in the end it was a bloodless victory for Marshal’s colt.
It was a contest up until the 300m mark before Master Magician came under pressure with Richard Fourie sitting motionless as Tristan Godden got to work on his mount.
Godden’s efforts were all in vain as Rich Man’s World simply lengthened his stride to win with many lengths to spare. Master Magician was hardly disgraced in second with the balance of the field left bobbing in his wake but he was no match for the winner.
The Gr1 Golden Medallion must surely be on the agenda for Rich Man’s World and the red ink will already be behind his name should he take his place.
Earlier, Andrew Forune gave another masterclass of jockeyship as he got Justin Snaith filly Querari Dancer home in a nerveless display the Gr3 Strelitzia Stakes.
Seemingly hemmed in on all sides with little more than a furlong to run, Fortune slowly eased his filly out from behind a wall of horses, slipping up the inside rail to get home rather comfortably from Menagerie and Ferrari Flair.
It was a fine afternoon for Marshal as Vibe Check, a strapping son of Querari who arrived in KZN off two close-up finishes, reveled in the step up to 1400m. Sean Veale, who had been aboard all three of his Hollywoodbets Kenilworth starts, took no prisoners. Bouncing out from the widest gate, Vibe Check went to the lead in fluent fashion ahead of market rival One Pepper, but was not for the catching as he extended his lead to put five lengths of daylight between himself and Putthelightsout and One Pepper. Like Rich Man’s World, the next stop must surely be a crack at one of the big juvenile features.
Soccer Updates and Carryovers – Thursday 30 April 2026, Friday 1 May 2026 and Saturday 2 May 2026
Soccer13 Carryover R 2 562 082 Thursday 30 April 2026. R 5 Million (All 13 Correct Jackpot Pool). Pool Closes at 20h30. Sport 11 Pool 1.
Soccer10 Friday 1 May 2026. Carryover R200 000. Estimated Pool: R2 Million. Pool Closes at 19h00. Sport 12 and Pool 1.
Score6 Saturday 2 May 2026. ADD-IN: R5 000. Pool Closes at 16h00, Sport 6 Pool 1.
Score10 Saturday 2 May 2026. ADD-IN: R10 000. Pool Closes at 16h00, Sport 9 Pool 1.
Soccer6 Saturday 2 May 2026. Carryover R75 000. Estimated Pool: R 450 000. Pool Closes at 18h00. Sport 4 Pool 1.
Soccer10 Saturday 2 May 2026. Carryover R200 000. Estimated Pool: R2 Million. Pool Closes at 15h00. Sport 14 and Pool 1.
Soccer Any13X on Saturday 2 May 2026. ADD-IN R100 000. Estimated Pool: R 400 000. Pool Closes at 13h30. Sport 13 and Pool 1
Soccer13 Saturday 2 May 2026 Carryover R8 643 038. R22 Million (If only One 13 of 13 Winner). Pool Closes at 15h30. Sport 10 Pool 1.
Uzwano should see out the trip
Andrew Harrison
The battle for a place in this year’s R10 million Hollywoodbets Durban July began in earnest on Wednesday with the announcement of the first 63 entries. Given the that first entry fee is a modest R2 500 there are plenty of connections willing to take their chances at this early stage.
That said, two of the early entries line up on the turf at Hollywoodbets Greyville this evening, the three-year-old Count Of Rouen and Johnny The Thief although both may have to take a back seat in a competitive handicap where Dean Kannemeyer has two lively contenders in the Class 3 Handicap over 1900.
Kannemeyer sends out Continentalexpress and Uzwano. Continentalexpress is consistent but would probably be more effective over further and while Uzwano goes this trip for the first time his pedigree suggests that he should easily see it out and may be the pick of the pair with Hollywood Racing’s Sean Veale in the irons.
Peter Muscutt sends out Count Of Rouen who was in need of his last run. As a Hollywoodbets Durban July entry he will need to put in a forward showing. Go Grayson Go is the likely pacemaker. He has been caught late at his last two over 1950m at Hollywoodbets Scottsville and may just last over this 50m shorter. Mohave Prince is unbeaten in two since the blinkers were added, has a handy weight helped by Rachel Venniker’s allowance.
MJ Odendaal has always held Johnny The Thief in high regard and he was running on well over a distance well short of his best last time out. Only time will tell whether his is good enough to make the July field.
Punters face a competitive field from the first race where most are first timers so the betting should prove your best guide.
The second could rest between Peace Rose and Peach Melba although Emerald Forge makes her local debut and has been expensive to follow on the Highveld where she has started favourite on numerous occasions only to disappoint but must have shown some ability.
Kiartay and Bison Warrior could suffice in the first leg of the PA. Kiartay made a smart debut before taking on winners in a feature next time out, both runs at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth. He has the best of the draw in his first outing for Tienie Prinsloo. Bison Warrior was run out of it late last run and the step up in trip with some experience under his girth should see him close again.
In the first leg of the Pick 6 Bai Yulu made a smart debut at long odds for Mike and Mathew de Kock. She is bred to stay this trip and any improvement can see her home. Gold Gold Baby has some promising Western Cape form and meets little of note in this line-up and is the one to beat. Surprise could come in the form of Flickering Light who showed signs of coming to hand when stepped up to 1600m last run. This trip should suit.
Tough handicaps follow. In the fifth, Tobacconist has come well at his last two and is over his ideal trip and Veale stays with the ride in preference to top weight Trois Quatre. Stuart Ferrie’s filly Hodge Podge is in cracking form and she followed up two close-up finishes behind subsequent Gr2 SA Derby winner Curious Girl with a comfortable victory over Fine Wine who has since gone on to frank that form. Of the balance I’m Invictus won well second time of asking when tried in blinkers. He has a handy weight and looks promising. Leading rider Craig Zackey takes the ride on My Boy Lollipop who has no recent form over shorter. The step up in trip and jockey booking could be a pointer.
In the seventh, Silver Salute was a comfortable winner over course and distance in her local debut. She only got a three-point raise in the handicap and can follow up. Blue Poppy was well beaten by Silver Salute when last they met but it was a below par performance from a wide draw. She should finish closer. Grand Occasion has been in mustard form of late and won well from a tricky draw when beating Blue Poppy last time out. Michaelle Michel’s 1.5kg allowance offsets her rating increase and she can confirm that result. West Side Story showed some improvement when going a mile again. She has a light weight and has an upset chance.
The eighth is a wide open handicap but Tyroconnell has been knocking at the door of late in useful company. He has no weight on his back and gets cheek pieces again which can see him go one better. Queue Wing is a veteran with 48kg to shoulder from a good draw. Judged by jockey bookings Green Glow would look to be Kannemeyer’s second string but Serino Moodley was aboard when shedding his maiden and the gelding is way better than his last effort. Stable companion Kanaal Skater s better than his last run from a wide draw and has a winning chance on his penultimate showing while Sundance Kid has been runner-up at his last three but all have come on the poly which is a concern.
The last is another tricky handicap but Take Your Place has shown up well in two recent outings against speedy opposition. She gets a three-point relief in the handicap that should see her competitive in another wide open race. Call Of The Karoo was a beaten favourite last start when taking on stronger. She has top weight but also a stronger rider aboard. Amafort is unbeaten in two with blinkers and a useful 4kg apprentice aboard and has a hattrick chance.
Hollywoodbets Durban July first entries
David Thiselton
There are 63 entries for the R10 million Hollywoodbets Durban July to be run on July 4 over 2200m at Hollywoodbets Greyville.
Champion trainer Justin Snaith, who is going for a sixth July win, led the way with ten entries headed by the WSB Cape Town Met and World Pool Premier’s Champions Challenge winner See It Again. He also has last year’s July runner up Eight On Eighteen in his team as well as dual Gr 1 winner Wish List, the Met runner up Legal Counsel, the exciting Lucky Fish Cape Derby runner up Note To Self as well as Okavango, Happy Verse, Native Ruler, Regulation and Great Plains. Note To Self could be the one to side with, because this big son of Futura has a fine turn of foot and as things stand will have a nice galloping weight of 54kg, presuming the 130 rated See It Again will stand his ground and be allotted top weight of 62kg.
The race has new conditions with the difference between this year’s and last year’s being there is a 10kg spread as opposed to a 8kg spread; there are no maximum or minimum weights for three-year-old males or for three-year-old females or for older females, and there are no minimum weights for older males.
Rather it is just a straight handicap with the normal weight for age allowances, which in the case of a 2200m race taking place in the month of July is a 2kg weight for age allowance for the three-year-olds.
Mike de Kock has also won five Julys and will now be attempting to win one as a partner of his son Mathew. They have four entries headed by Gr 1 Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas winner Jan Van Goyen, Gr 2 SA Derby winner Curious Girl, Gr 2 Gauteng Guineas winner Splittheeights and the former Zimbabwean Triple Crown winner Buster Barnes. Of those Splittheeights looks to have some fine formlines and is potentially well weighted, although as things stand he is officially 2,5kg under sufferance off a 109 merit rating.
Dean Kannemeyer will be going for a fifth win in the big race, but last year’s winner The Real Prince is his sole entry.
Sean Tarry has won the July twice before and he has entered three horses, including Gr 1 SA Classic winner Grand Empire. The latter is officially 1,5kg under sufferance as things stand, an unusual occurrence for a Gr 1 winner, so he has to be considered potentially well weighted.
James Crawford now heads the yard who won the race twice in succession in 2023 and 2024 as his father Brett has relocated to Hong Kong.
James played a big part in both victories and has three entries, including the progressive pair Star Major and Reet Petite. They both have the perfect merit rating for a three-year-old as things stand, 114, because that means they come into the race with bottom weight of 52kg and they sneak into the handicap.
The other three trainers with entries who have won the race before are Alec Laird, Glen Kotzen and Candice Bass.
Laird has a big entry of six, headed by the Gr 1 winners Fire Attack and Atticus Finch. Fire Attack has had a disappointing season, but at his best he possesses a strong finish, so can’t be written off. Atticus Finch suffered epistaxis in last year’s race, but if things go well for him this former Betway Summer Cup winner has the class to be a threat, although he will have to carry a big weight of 60,5kg off his 127 rating as things stand.
Kotzen has entered the brave stayer Holding Thumbs, who will try his heart out.
Bass has three entries including the dependable Rainbow Lorikeet and the exciting three-year-old prospect Viva’s Liberte, the best of whom is unlikely to have been seen yet.
Another interesting entry is the Jackpot City Dingaans winner Trust, who was a narrow runner up in the SA Classic and he looks potentially well weighted off a mere 110 rating, which officially puts him 2kg under sufferance as things stand. He will be out to give July nearly man Larry Nestadt a first win in the big race and the other owners, Gary Player and the Lindsay Ralphs family, will also be trying to win the July for the first time.
The filly who only just missed landing the Triple Tiara, the Corne Spies-trained Hazy Dazy, is an entry.
KZN have plenty of entries headed by the Frank Robinson-trained Betway Summer Cup winner Mocha Blend, the Stuart Ferrie-trained Gr 1 Champions Cup winner Gladatorian, the Gareth van Zyl-trained champion stayer King Pelles and his SA Derby runner up stablemate Salani Kahle, the Nathan Kotzen-trained stayer Shoot The Rapids and his improving stablemate Field Marshal, Peter Muscutt has three entries including I Salute You, Michael Roberts has entered the classy Ladyofdistinction and there are also entries from Darryl Moore and MJ Odendaal.
Devin Heffer, Hollywoodbets Brand and Communications manager, said, “It has been a privilege for us as a leading brand to be associated with this internationally acclaimed sporting event since 2022, and every year it just gets bigger and better. With the adjustment in the race conditions and a doubling of the prize money to a record new stakes pot, the first entries list is proof that the stars are aligned and Hollywoodbets Greyville is set to live up to its label of the ‘Theatre of Champions’ on 4 July”.
Changes to the merit ratings
David Thiselton
The new merit ratings are out from the Gr 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic and the handicappers look to have largely managed to get the merit ratings back to the way they had wanted them after the TAB Gauteng Guineas.
The original line horse used for the Gauteng Guineas was Tin Pan Alley, who was rated 117, whilst the appeal panel decided a more appropriate line horse was the 108-rated Grand Empire.
However, both of those horses are now Gr 1 winners, with Grand Empire having won the SA Classic on Saturday by a short-head from Trust, and Tin Pan Alley having slammed some of the best in the country by 1,75 lengths when winning the Gr 1 Wilgerbosdrift HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes over 1600m.
The appeal panel’s overall rating of the race thus looked to be too low.
The handicappers have managed to use the evidence from the SA Classic, as well as other factors, to get Trust back to the merit rating they had him on after the Guineas i.e 119 and have changed the ratings of the other runners accordingly.
The ratings look to now have a realistic look to them.
Meanwhile, Tin Pan Alley has been raised ten points to 128 after his impressive Horse Chestnut Stakes victory.
Hazy Dazy remains unchanged on 117 after her cosy win in the Gr 1 Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic.
The NHA press release explained all of the changes to the Gr 1 runners:
WILGERBOSDRIFT H F OPPENHEIMER HORSE CHESTNUT STAKES (GRADE 1)
Three-year-old TIN PAN ALLEY has been awarded a revised merit rating of 128, up from 117, following his emphatic victory in the Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift H F Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes run at weight-for-age over 1600m at Turffontein standside track on Saturday.
In assessing the race, the Handicappers identified the consistent TEXAS RED (third place) as the line horse, leaving his rating unchanged at 119.
TIN PAN ALLEY’S commanding win over 1600m on a yielding track dispelled any doubts about his aptitude for the trip. The Handicappers had already considered him suitable for the distance, having used him as the line horse in the original TAB Gauteng Guineas ratings. However, the TAB Gauteng Guineas was subsequently reduced to a level of 109 following an appeal.
The outcome of the TAB Gauteng Guineas appeal has had significant knock-on effects. The three-year-old cohort that dominated the Guineas was reduced from a level of 121 to 109. TIN PAN ALLEY, who finished fourth in that race, has now gone on to win a Grade 1 WFA event.
Effectively, based on the reduced Guineas level, his performance rating has risen from 104 to 128 in just 28 days. While the Handicappers clearly believe TIN PAN ALLEY improved in this race, the improvement would reasonably be measured from 117 to 128 based on the Handicapper’s original assessment of the Gauteng Guineas.
When rating the Guineas, the Handicappers considered the pecking order of the field, the quality of the race as a Grade 2 event, and fairness from a handicapping perspective to ensure horses would meet on proper handicap terms in future contests. The appeal outcome created distortions, including the subsequent reduction of TRUST’S rating from 119 to 108 – a decision made two runs after his Grade 2 Jackpot City Dingaans victory, which the Handicappers regard as contrary to the principles of handicapping.
TIN PAN ALLY’S performance in this WFA race highlights the strength of this year’s three-year-old crop.
No other horses received upward adjustments in this race. COSMIC SPEED’S rating was reduced slightly, from 124 to 122.
HKJC WORLD POOL SA CLASSIC (GRADE 1)
GRAND EMPIRE, winner of the Grade 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic over 1800m, has had his official merit rating raised from 108 to 120.
The Handicappers unanimously agreed that runner-up TRUST reaffirmed the 119 performance he achieved in the Grade 2 Jackpot City Dingaans last November, where he defeated the 118-rated JAN VAN GOYEN. The Dingaans level remains the officially adopted benchmark for that race.
In the assessment of this race, the Handicappers concluded that TRUST once again performed to that same level of 119. TRUST was used to that mark and was accordingly adjusted to 119.
A collateral line of form with TIN PAN ALLY’S win in the Wilgerbosdrift H F Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes (Grade 1) indicates that the Grade 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic is undervalued, however, the Handicappers do not practise retrospective ratings.
Furthermore, the TRUST appeal panel concluded with the following recommendation: “Following the running of the SA Classic, the Handicappers should re-evaluate the entire three-year-old crop.”
Three additional horses received merit rating increases in this race:
- SPLITTHEEIGHTS: 109 to 116
- ONE EYE ON VEGAS: 106 to 115
- RADIO STAR: 95 to 107
WILGERBOSDRIFT SA FILLIES CLASSIC (GRADE 1)
HAZY DAZY’S official merit rating remained unchanged at 117 after she held off her rivals to win the Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic over 1800m. HAZY DAZY remains 3 points lower that her male counterpart GRAND EMPIRE, which is within the range of the filly’s allowance while keeping her equal to the Western Cape Leading filly WISH LIST, who is also rated 117.
The Handicappers identified LITTLEMISSMILLION as the line horse, leaving her rating unchanged at 107.
Two horses received rating increases based on their margins ahead of the line horse at level weights:
- SCARLETT HEART (third): 91 to 108
- DAISY JONES (fourth): 106 to 108
Exciting new July Handicap conditions
David Thiselton
The Hollywoodbets Durban July conditions have been finalised and the final field panellists might be in for an interesting evening before the Final Field And Barrier Draw Ceremony, whilst the three-year-olds look to be on the back foot at present.
There will be a longer handicap this year with a 10kg spread in the weights from a topweight of 62kg down to a bottom weight of 52kg.
Furthermore, it will just be a straight handicap, unlike recent July conditions in which there was a maximum and minimum weight for certain age groups and genders.
If the final field happens to have a spread that is less than 10kg, the topweight will still be 62kg. If, for example, there is a weight spread of 7kg among the entries, then the bottom weight will be 55kg.
If the topweights are scratched after the setting of the weights, then the new topweight will be dragged up to 62kg. For example if the topweight after scratchings is 60,5kg, it will be dragged up to 62kg and after the rest of the field have been dragged up the bottom weight will become 53,5kg.
The final field will not necessarily be chosen by merit rating order.
Justin Vermaak, Executive Racing and Bloodstock of Race Coast, said, “There will be a final field selection panel like before and merit rating will be a leading aspect, but the panel will also take current form and distance suitability into account etc.”
In recent years the final field panellists have not had it too tough as the field was cut up before the final field announcement, with a lot of horses being scratched due to the recognition by the connections they do not have much chance, either due to the weights not favouring them or due to them being off form – the final declaration fee could have, in those cases, been considered a waste of money.
However, with the longer handicap, there are going to be more horses who still have form chances on paper.
Looking at last year’s July for example, third-placed Selukwe was rated 111 and had to carry 54kg due to the condition that the minimum weight for an older male was 54kg. He was thus 2kg under sufferance with the 127-rated topweights, both older horses, and he was 4kg under sufferance with the officially best weighted horse, the 129 rated (nett 125-rated) Eight On Eighteen, who was set to carry 57kg despite being the highest merit rated horse in the race due to a condition that three-year-old males could not carry more than 57kg.
In last year’s race Oriental Charm carried 60kg, Eight On Eighteen carried 57kg and Selukwe carried 54kg.
Under this year’s conditions the weights for those three horses would have been: Oriental Charm 62kg, Eight On Eighteen 61kg and Selukwe 54kg. Selukwe would have been 2kg and 4kg better off with Oriental Charm and Eight On Eighteen respectively under today’s conditions.
He would have been 2kg better off with the winner The Real Prince too and, on paper, would have been beaten 0,30 lengths instead of by 2,65 lengths.
There could theoretically have been a horse who would have been even more favoured by today’s conditions than the 111-rated Selukwe example.
Using last year’s race under today’s conditions, an older horse who had been rated 107 would sneak into the handicap under today’s conditions.
A 107-rated older horse last year would have had to carry 54kg, 6kg less than the topweight, but under today’s conditions it would have only had to carry 52kg, which would be 10kg less than the 62kg topweight.
Therefore, there are theoretically going be a lot more horses standing their ground at the time of the final field selection process this year, because a lot more of them will have chances of winning on paper than would have been the case under the old conditions.
Furthermore, with stakes of R10 million up for grabs there will be less cases of horses being scratched due to the connections deeming them to be off form. They might still want to take their chances.
The difficulty for the panel will come in deciding whether a lower rated horse is deemed to have better recent form or better distance suitability than a higher rated horse.
For argument sakes let’s assume that we go back to last year and there are still many horses standing their ground until the bitter end. After the top 17 are selected, according to the last log and current form, let’s assume the next two horses are the 115-rated Madison Valley and the 120-rated The Real Prince.
The Real Prince is rated five points higher than Madison Valley, but he has never run a race beyond 1600m before.
Madison Valley on the other hand finished a close fourth in the Betway Summer Cup over 2000m and in his final run before the July he won the traditional July pointer, the Hollywoodbets Dolphins Cup Trial over 1800m.
Which one are they going to put in the all important 18th slot?
Such a scenario is going to have much more chance of happening this year.
Although it has been said that weight avoidance tactics are going to be used this year, those who do take that route are probably going to run a bigger risk of not qualifying than ever before.
Now on to the three-year-olds.
Eight On Eighteen was held in high regard last year and came into the race 2kg well-in, according to official merit ratings, and yet he was not able to win the race.
Under today’s conditions he would have had to carry 61kg, effectively 2kg more.
So it was tough last year for a top, top three-year-old who was favoured by the old conditions.
How tough will it be for good-but-not-great three-year-olds under the new conditions, considering there is no maximum weight for them and no minimum weight for older horses?
Likewise it will be tough for females.
Furthermore, this year’s three-year-old crop are arguably overrated off their current merit ratings.
For example, Gauteng Guineas runner up Grand Empire could not win the Wolf Power 1600 against older horses when 2kg under sufferance off a 102 merit rating (effectively a 106 merit rating), yet he is now rated 120. There will be cries of “but the handicapper is clueless” when looking at that, but those who do say that are clueless themselves, because the handicapper rates a race on that race, not on past races, and Tin Pan Alley had earned his 117 rating by beating older horses and Grand Empire had then beaten him. Furthermore, Grand Empire was likely not at his peak for the Wolf Power with the Triple crown series looming.
Nevertheless, the overall impression is the current three-year-old male crop is not shining and it is questionable whether any of them have properly earned a rating of 120 or above.
It could well be an older horse July, but on the other hand there is an impressive unexposed horse like Note To Self among the three-year-olds and more such types might emerge.
The build up to this year’s Hollywoodbets Durban July is going to be more intriguing than ever!
