Author Archives: Sanette Holmes

Snaith to predict the future

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Alistair Cohen

 

There are often some treasures to be found during Cape Town’s winter series of feature races. There is often a long game in mind for horses with upside who are not quite ready for the warmer pleasures in Durban during winter. Future Free is a half brother to reigning Horse Of The Year Eight On Eighteen and he is likely nowhere near the same class. But, he is heading the right way and he could scoop the Listed Pocket Power Stakes over 1950m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth tomorrow.

His last run came in Leg 2 of this series which has produced Pocket Power, Marinaresco and African Night Sky. Over 1800m, the Listed Legal Eagle Stakes he finished a pleasing 2,05-length third behind La Pulga who is an entry for the Hollywoodbets Durban July, albeit optimistic. Future Free has always struck as a horse who will kick on as his career develops and as he is sent over further distances which he gets to venture over.

He is only a three-year-old which suggests there is plenty left in the tank. He gives the impression that this is the start of good times to come and he could be a step higher up the ladder in a few months when the sun shines slightly warmer in Cape Town. Andrew Fortune takes the ride for Justin Snaith.

Snaith sends out the lightly raced Prairie Dawn who is the most interesting runner in the race. He showed tons of courage to worm through a tight gap last time at Hollywoodbets Durbanville when lesser heart would have seen him with a hard luck story. With only six career starts, this must be a signal of intent from Snaith. From beating Show Off who has been disappointing to running against some solid campaigners is a huge ask. Craig Zackey was complimentary about his future. Keep an eye on him as the months go by. A good showing would put him in place for high hopes in the future.

Otto Luyken holds an optimistic entry for the Hollywoodbets Durban July. A win here might not do his chances many favours but it would keep him alive to qualify for Africa’s Greatest Race. His effort in the Legal Eagle Stakes was fair when he finished just under three lengths behind La Pulga. He seems held by Future Free. This extra distance is in his favour and he is a good horse when he decides to be at his best with a long, fluent stride.

Aquae Calidae ran a bold race on debut when he finished second behind Kalahari King. He showed a unique running style with his head low down demonstrating immaturity. He runs in race 1 over 1200m. His high number draw of No 10 down the straight is not ideal but he showed good pace first-up and experience could help his cause.

Spinnaker is a lovely looker and he also put up a sparkling first effort when he finished behind The Cullinan over 1200m. He steps up to 1400m in race 2. He is a half brother to Grade 2 WSB Guineas winner Sail The Seas. He hit the line with plenty in hand last time behind an experienced horse who also has a touch of ability. This looks like a hot maiden so he could face equally stiff opposition but impressions were high after his debut and he could make enough progress to win.

Signor Dante plummets in class in race 3 over 1400m. The doubt attached to his chances is if he can handle the drop in distance. He hints that his next win would come over slightly further and his running style backs that idea up. He has run against Note To Self, Eric Liddell, Prairie Dawn and Future Free in his last four runs. All of those horses would be warm order favourites in a race of this nature.

Lava Strike improved in his last run when he finished close-up behind Vercicat. There is no evident reason for him showing zero to finishing second so perhaps natural progression served him well. He gets the services of Richard Fourie in race 4 over the same 1200m distance. There is a real paucity of compelling form in this event.

If Moody Blue has the legs to win over 1200m, he looks like he has the right form in race 5. Andrew Fortune is the man for the job to see if he can be as effective over this trip. His recent runs have come against stronger. There is not much predicted rain leading into this meeting which takes off some doubt. If he is rolled, just about anything in the race can win.

Eric Liddell trotted up in his last run. He is on the up. If Signor Dante wins a few races earlier, Eric Liddell becomes even more appealing. He runs in race 6 over 1950m. He faces a competitive field against some well-tried older hard knockers who will not be easy to fend off. He seems like he is maturing rapidly enough to give him the benefit of the doubt. Scottish Links, Gentleman Joe, Fort Liam and Song To The Moon all stack up as contenders.

Charlie Bucket is somehow still a maiden. He has finished in the runner-up spot in his last three runs. Horses who beat him have not looked out of place going a step higher. He might be his own worst enemy because he leaves himself too much to do but the extra trip to 1600m is worth a roll in race 8. This is not quite now or never because there seems to be a few runners of interest but he would be a popular and deserving winner.

Hollywoodbets Kenilworth Sunday, 24 May – Comments by David Thiselton

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Race 1

10 AQUAE CALIDAE ran a cracker on debut and will be hard to beat. 3 COPPER HEAD also has good debut form and should be right there. 4 ANOTHER HERO has run two good races and has a chance. 6 GODRIC GRYFFINDOR should be there or thereabouts. (David Thiselton 10-3-4-6)

 

Race 2

7 MADE IN CHELSEA should be hard to beat considering his good formlines. 4 SPINNAKER made a good debut and with improvement could go close. 3 CAPTAIN’S ANGEL should be in the shake up. 1 HERO’S JOURNEY should earn again in this line up. (David Thiselton 7-4-3-1)

 

Race 3

5 SIGNOR DANTE can bounce back as he has some fine form overall. 4 PACIFIC WATERS enjoyed the course and distance last time and has been given a reasonable merit rating. 1 FORT YUKON has a form chance. 3 RED DAWN could be in the shake up in this line up. (David Thiselton 5-4-1-3)

 

Race 4

3 LAVA STRIKE has some fine formlines and is the one to beat. 5 COFFEE CRUNCH has 3,60 lengths to make up on Lava Strike. 2 THE MUFFIN MAN comes from that same race and has 3,8 lengths to make up on Lava Strike. 10 LOVE FROM AFAR has the ability to earn. (David Thiselton 3-5-2-10)

 

Race 5

5 KELP FOREST has plenty of ability and is back to his last winning mark. 2 LOVING PRAGUE has some fine form and should go close. 1 WINTER PEARL is knocking on the door and should be right there. 8 OCTOBER STORM has the ability but is none too consistent and needs to bounce back. (David Thiselton 5-2-1-8)

 

Race 6

3 SCOTTISH LINKS is 2,5kg better off with Eric Liddell for a 2,25 length beating and there is a reversal in draw fortunes in his favour. 1 TUNGUSKA was well beaten by Eric Liddell last time when widely drawn but he is now drawn in pole. 9 ERIC LIDDELL is progressive and would not be a surprise winner because he is a grinder who will relish the heavy winter conditions but he does have a tough draw. 10 TOTHEMOONANDBACK is capable of earning in this line up. (David Thiselton 3-1-9-10)

 

Race 7

6 FUTURE FREE is a talented son of Futura and his progressive profile plus a step up in trip he will relish makes him the one to beat. 1 PAY THE PALACE has mixed it with some of the best and not been disgraced and he should be in the shake up over a trip he should get considering his fair run in the Lucky Fish Cape Derby. 5 PRAIRIE DAWN is a consistent sort who is on the up and he should enjoy the step up in trip. 7 MAGIC VERSE has a touch of class and is distance suited and he should be in the shake up despite having the widest draw in the seven horse field. (David Thiselton 6-1-5-7)

 

Race 8

5 FREQUENT TRAVELLER ran a good race over course and distance last time and is now two point lower in another maiden handicap. 2 CHARLIE BUCKET has been knocking on the door and from a good draw has a chance although he has to prove he stays this trip. 7 FATE OF PACE has a tricky draw but has the form and distance suitability to be a contender. 11 QUIET PLACE has earned a cheque in the last three maiden handicaps he has run in. (David Thiselton 5-2-7-1)

60 years on from Sea Cottage shooting

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David Thiselton

 

The July build up of 60 years ago was like no other before it and It is fitting that this year’s Hollywoodbets Durban July, carrying a record-breaking stake of R10 million, falls on such an auspicious anniversary date

In the month of May 60 years ago the great Sea Cottage began his July preparation by running in a race often used by Syd Laird as starting point for his best July contender, the Gr 1 Newbury Stakes over 1200m.

Sea Cottage beat another famous horse in the 1966 Newbury renewal, the previous year’s Gr 1 SA Guineas winner William Penn, whose story bears repeating.

Willaim Penn had won six Grade 1s up until being retired to stud in 1969 and was a July runner up by half-a-length in 1968, carrying topweight and giving the winner Chimboraa 24 pounds.

His wins included the 1968 J&B Met with topweight. He was two-one up in meetings between himself and his more celebrated half-brother Hawaii, who went on to become USA’s Champion Grass Horse as well as a successful sire, standing at Claiborne where he produced 25 stakes winners including Epsom Derby winner Henbit. William Penn proved infertile at stud, siring only nine foals, although they included three stakes winners. He was brought out of retirement as a ten-year-old and the first run of his comeback was in the J&B Met of January 1972. He flew up for second, three lengths behind the winner Force Ten to whom he gave 18 pounds. He went on to race successfully until he was eleven, the best performance of his final season being a 0,2 length second to the great In Full Flight in the Grade 1 Champions Stakes over 2000m at Greyville, beating another champion, Mazarin.

Back To Sea Cottage who was back at Greyville a week after the Newbury Stakes to win the Gr 1 SA Guineas by 3,5 lengths, his eleventh career victory in just 12 starts.

Six days later the country woke up to shocking news.

On that bright Friday morning Sea Cottage had been shot while walking under the Blue Lagoon bridge on the way to the Syd Laird ring on the beach.

The story is well documented with the shooter Johnny Nel being apprehended later the same day. The well-known gangster had foolishly used his easily recognisable yellow-coloured convertible to drive to the shelter on the south side of the bridge, which is still the same structure today as it was back then, to perform the dastardly deed.

He was allegedly acting on behalf of bookmaker Sonny Chislett, who had allegedly approached the owner of the Monaco Club, Monty Labuschagne, with the news that if Sea Cottage won the July he would have to close his business and therefore he demanded the debt he was owed by the latter be paid up.

Labuschagne’s alleged response was what would it be worth if they stopped Sea Cottage from winning the July and Chislett’s alleged response was that he would forego the debt.

It was Nel, a bouncer at the Monaco club, who hatched the plan.

If Nel can be forgiven to any extent it was in his later testimony that he had found it difficult to shoot an animal and had deliberately aimed for the soft flesh of the hindquarter in order to not kill him.

Syd Laird was still able to nurture Sea Cottage through the worst of the injury and he had him ready to run in the July three weeks after the shooting.

The big bay unfortunately suffered interference at a crucial stage and ended up running a four length fourth.

It was a bitter-sweet day for Laird because Sea Cottage’s six-year-old stablemate Java Head won the race.

However, the following year saw the July’s most celebrated renewal.

The 1967 SA Guineas winner Jollify, who was receiving 27 pounds from Sea Cottage, stole a march at the top of the straight under a fine ride by John Gorton.

Sea Cottage had a lot of ground to make up, but began eating up the ground.

He had to get around King Willow, who was going straight, before the natural instinct of shifting towards the leader, was able to happen.

A flying Sea Cottage with his enormous stride bore down on the three-year-old, despite the latter showing no signs of stopping.

The two Birch Brothers-bred horses flashed past the post together.

But had Sea Cottage got there in time?

Commentator Ernie Duffield thought not and said, “I think Jollify has held on.”

Minutes later the on course crowd let out a roar when the numbers were put up together to declare a dead-heat.

But the rest of the country apparently had to endure an agonising wait for news as the radio commentary ended and they went back to the  studio.

Craig Peters, who has by the way commentated 39 Julys, ten more than Ernie Duffield’s previous record of 29, recalled that day, at which time he was a young boy living with his parents in Mayfair, Johannesburg.

He said, “It was only sometime later on Pat Carr’s Forces Favourites program that we heard it was a dead-heat and I was absolutely elated (especially considering he had shed tears after Sea Cottage’s defeat the previous year). We saw the photo in the Stop Press and about two weeks later we watched the African Mirror footage of the race at the Drive-In. I remember also being at Sea Cottage’s last ever race, the Cutty Sark at Gosforth Park, which attracted a massive crowd. I watched by standing on the bonnet of my father’s car.”

“The immortal” Sea Cottage won twenty of his 24 races and there was still a reminder of him nearby at Hollywoodbets Greyville until recent years.

Syd Laird had always been terrified somebody would “get to” Sea Cottage and had metal plates fitted over the air vents on the road side of his stable.

His old stable served as a vendor stall in recent times at The Stables Lifestyle Market next to the Hollywoodbets KIng’s Park rugby stadium.

His stable was the third one down from the main entrance.

Those rusty metal plates were still in place across the air vents on the roadside of the stall until the closure of the market in March 2020.

Sadly, the building soon became completely dilapidated and an intriguing piece of Durban history went down with it.

Hollywoodbets Durban July first entries

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David Thiselton

 

There are 63 entries for the R10 million Hollywoodbets Durban July to be run on July 4 over 2200m at Hollywoodbets Greyville.

 

Champion trainer Justin Snaith, who is going for a sixth July win, led the way with ten entries headed by the WSB Cape Town Met and World Pool Premier’s Champions Challenge winner See It Again. He also has last year’s July runner up Eight On Eighteen in his team as well as dual Gr 1 winner Wish List, the Met runner up Legal Counsel, the exciting Lucky Fish Cape Derby runner up Note To Self as well as Okavango, Happy Verse, Native Ruler, Regulation and Great Plains. Note To Self could be the one to side with, because this big son of Futura has a fine turn of foot and as things stand will have a nice galloping weight of 54kg, presuming the 130 rated See It Again will stand his ground and be allotted top weight of 62kg.

 

The race has new conditions with the difference between this year’s and last year’s being there is a 10kg spread as opposed to a 8kg spread; there are no maximum or minimum weights for three-year-old males or for three-year-old females or for older females, and there are no minimum weights for older males.

Rather it is just a straight handicap with the normal weight for age allowances, which in the case of a 2200m race taking place in the month of July is a 2kg weight for age allowance for the three-year-olds.

Mike de Kock has also won five Julys and will now be attempting to win one as a partner of his son Mathew. They have four entries headed by Gr 1 Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas winner Jan Van Goyen, Gr 2 SA Derby winner Curious Girl, Gr 2 Gauteng Guineas winner Splittheeights and the former Zimbabwean Triple Crown winner Buster Barnes. Of those Splittheeights looks to have some fine formlines and is potentially well weighted, although as things stand he is officially 2,5kg under sufferance off a 109 merit rating.

Dean Kannemeyer will be going for a fifth win in the big race, but last year’s winner The Real Prince is his sole entry.

Sean Tarry has won the July twice before and he has entered three horses, including Gr 1 SA Classic winner Grand Empire. The latter is officially 1,5kg under sufferance as things stand, an unusual occurrence for a Gr 1 winner, so he has to be considered potentially well weighted.

James Crawford now heads the yard who won the race twice in succession in 2023 and 2024 as his father Brett has relocated to Hong Kong.

James played a big part in both victories and has three entries, including the progressive pair Star Major and Reet Petite. They both have the perfect merit rating for a three-year-old as things stand, 114, because that means they come into the race with bottom weight of 52kg and they sneak into the handicap.

The other three trainers with entries who have won the race before are Alec Laird, Glen Kotzen and Candice Bass.

Laird has a big entry of six, headed by the Gr 1 winners Fire Attack and Atticus Finch. Fire Attack has had a disappointing season, but at his best he possesses a strong finish, so can’t be written off. Atticus Finch suffered epistaxis in last year’s race, but if things go well for him this former Betway Summer Cup winner has the class to be a threat, although he will have to carry a big weight of 60,5kg off his 127 rating as things stand.

Kotzen has entered the brave stayer Holding Thumbs, who will try his heart out.

Bass has three entries including the dependable Rainbow Lorikeet and the exciting three-year-old prospect Viva’s Liberte, the best of whom is unlikely to have been seen yet.

Another interesting entry is the Jackpot City Dingaans winner Trust, who was a narrow runner up in the SA Classic and he looks potentially well weighted off a mere 110 rating, which officially puts him 2kg under sufferance as things stand. He will be out to give July nearly man Larry Nestadt a first win in the big race and the other owners, Gary Player and the Lindsay Ralphs family, will also be trying to win the July for the first time.

The filly who only just missed landing the Triple Tiara, the Corne Spies-trained Hazy Dazy, is an entry.

KZN have plenty of entries headed by the Frank Robinson-trained Betway Summer Cup winner Mocha Blend, the Stuart Ferrie-trained Gr 1 Champions Cup winner Gladatorian,  the Gareth van Zyl-trained champion stayer King Pelles and his SA Derby runner up stablemate Salani Kahle, the Nathan Kotzen-trained stayer Shoot The Rapids and his improving stablemate Field Marshal, Peter Muscutt has three entries including I Salute You, Michael Roberts has entered the classy Ladyofdistinction and there are also entries from Darryl Moore and MJ Odendaal.

Devin Heffer, Hollywoodbets Brand and Communications manager, said, “It has been a privilege for us as a leading brand to be associated with this internationally acclaimed sporting event since 2022, and every year it just gets bigger and better. With the adjustment in the race conditions and a doubling of the prize money to a record new stakes pot, the first entries list is proof that the stars are aligned and  Hollywoodbets Greyville is set to live up to its label of the ‘Theatre of Champions’ on 4 July”.

Exciting new July Handicap conditions

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David Thiselton

 

The Hollywoodbets Durban July conditions have been finalised and the final field panellists might be in for an interesting evening before the Final Field And Barrier Draw Ceremony, whilst the three-year-olds look to be on the back foot at present.

 

There will be a longer handicap this year with a 10kg spread in the weights from a topweight of 62kg down to a bottom weight of 52kg.

 

Furthermore, it will just be a straight handicap, unlike recent July conditions in which there was a maximum and minimum weight for certain age groups and genders.

 

If the final field happens to have a spread that is less than 10kg, the topweight will still be 62kg. If, for example, there is a weight spread of 7kg among the entries, then the bottom weight will be 55kg.

 

If the topweights are scratched after the setting of the weights, then the new topweight will be dragged up to 62kg. For example if the topweight after scratchings is 60,5kg, it will be dragged up to 62kg and after the rest of the field have been dragged up the bottom weight will become 53,5kg.

 

The final field will not necessarily be chosen by merit rating order.

 

Justin Vermaak, Executive Racing and Bloodstock of Race Coast, said, “There will be a final field selection panel like before and merit rating will be a leading aspect, but the panel will also take current form and distance suitability into account etc.”

 

In recent years the final field panellists have not had it too tough as the field was cut up before the final field announcement, with a lot of horses being scratched due to the recognition by the connections they do not have much chance, either due to the weights not favouring them or due to them being off form – the final declaration fee could have, in those cases, been considered a waste of money.

 

However, with the longer handicap, there are going to be more horses who still have form chances on paper.

 

Looking at last year’s July for example, third-placed Selukwe was rated 111 and had to carry 54kg due to the condition that the minimum weight for an older male was 54kg. He was thus 2kg under sufferance with the 127-rated topweights, both older horses, and he was 4kg under sufferance with the officially best weighted horse, the 129 rated (nett 125-rated) Eight On Eighteen, who was set to carry 57kg despite being the highest merit rated horse in the race due to a condition that three-year-old males could not carry more than 57kg.

 

In last year’s race Oriental Charm carried 60kg, Eight On Eighteen carried 57kg and Selukwe carried 54kg.

 

Under this year’s conditions the weights for those three horses would have been: Oriental Charm 62kg, Eight On Eighteen 61kg and Selukwe 54kg. Selukwe would have been 2kg and 4kg better off with Oriental Charm and Eight On Eighteen respectively under today’s conditions.

 

He would have been 2kg better off with the winner The Real Prince too and, on paper, would have been beaten 0,30 lengths instead of by 2,65 lengths.

 

There could theoretically have been a horse who would have been even more favoured by today’s conditions than the 111-rated Selukwe example.

 

Using last year’s race under today’s conditions, an older horse who had been rated 107 would sneak into the handicap under today’s conditions.

 

A 107-rated older horse last year would have had to carry 54kg, 6kg less than the topweight, but under today’s conditions it would have only had to carry 52kg, which would be 10kg less than the 62kg topweight.

 

Therefore, there are theoretically going be a lot more horses standing their ground at the time of the final field selection process this year, because a lot more of them will have chances of winning on paper than would have been the case under the old conditions.

 

Furthermore, with stakes of R10 million up for grabs there will be less cases of horses being scratched due to the  connections deeming them to be off form. They might still want to take their chances.

 

The difficulty for the panel will come in deciding whether a lower rated horse is deemed to have better recent form or better distance suitability than a higher rated horse.

 

For argument sakes let’s assume that we go back to last year and there are still many horses standing their ground until the bitter end. After the top 17 are selected, according to the last log and current form, let’s assume the next two horses are the 115-rated Madison Valley and the 120-rated The Real Prince.

 

The Real Prince is rated five points higher than Madison Valley, but he has never run a race beyond 1600m before.

 

Madison Valley on the other hand finished a close fourth in the Betway Summer Cup over 2000m and in his final run before the July he won the traditional July pointer, the Hollywoodbets Dolphins Cup Trial over 1800m.

 

Which one are they going to put in the all important 18th slot?

 

Such a scenario is going to have much more chance of happening this year.

 

Although it has been said that weight avoidance tactics are going to be used this year, those who do take that route are probably going to run a bigger risk of not qualifying than ever before.

 

Now on to the three-year-olds.

 

Eight On Eighteen was held in high regard last year and came into the race 2kg well-in, according to official merit ratings, and yet he was not able to win the race.

 

Under today’s conditions he would have had to carry 61kg, effectively 2kg more.

 

So it was tough last year for a top, top three-year-old who was favoured by the old conditions.

 

How tough will it be for good-but-not-great three-year-olds under the new conditions, considering there is no maximum weight for them and no minimum weight for older horses?

 

Likewise it will be tough for females.

 

Furthermore, this year’s three-year-old crop are arguably overrated off their current merit ratings.

 

For example, Gauteng Guineas runner up Grand Empire could not win the Wolf Power 1600 against older horses when 2kg under sufferance off a 102 merit rating (effectively a 106 merit rating), yet he is now rated 120. There will be cries of “but the handicapper is clueless” when looking at that, but those who do say that are clueless themselves, because the handicapper rates a race on that race, not on past races, and Tin Pan Alley had earned his 117 rating by beating older horses and Grand Empire had then beaten him. Furthermore, Grand Empire was likely not at his peak for the Wolf Power with the Triple crown series looming.

 

Nevertheless, the overall impression is the current three-year-old male crop is not shining and it is questionable whether any of them have properly earned a rating of 120 or above.

 

It could well be an older horse July, but on the other hand there is an impressive unexposed horse like Note To Self among the three-year-olds and more such types might emerge.

 

The build up to this year’s Hollywoodbets Durban July is going to be more intriguing than ever!