Quickstepgal ready to dance

David Thiselton

 

A number of Summerveld trainers spoke about the chances of their Hollywoodbets Durban July day runners yesterday morning.

 

Tienie Prinsloo is bullish about the chances of his crack Vercingetorix three-year-old filly Quickstepgal in the Gr 1 wfa Ridgemont Garden Province Stakes over 1600m and after the below interview he stated that he believed she was going to beat the favourite Double Grand Slam.

 

He had said before that bold statement, “Everything is good with her, she is doing her best at home and I am very happy with her. Her draw of seven is a very, very nice draw in my opinion, it’s not outside and it’s not inside. I think she will have a nice jump from gate seven. The 1400m of her last win suits her down to the ground, but she did win the Gr 1 WSB Cape Fillies Guineas and as an older filly she might start preferring the mile. Anyway I don’t see any problem with this distance, we are just going to have to look out for Justin Snaith’s filly (Double Grand Slam).”

 

Tienie believed the right decision was made by the stipendiary stewards last time when Quickstepgal had a ding-dong duel down the straight with Mon Petite Cherie in the Gr 2 HKJC World Pool Stakes over 1400m and she kept the race after an objection against her. She will now be 3kg better off with Mon Petite Cherie, despite having beaten her by a short-head, so she should confirm the form.

 

Gareth van Zyl has King Pelles (Duke Of Marmalade) in the big one, the Hollywoodbets Durban July, and he said, “He is doing well, he has had no hiccups in his preparation. He is fit and is in a very good space and he is ready to run. His draw of 17 is actually nice as it means he will be out of the hustle and bustle that will be going on, so hopefully we don’t get trapped more than three wide. Horses have won going three wide, it is not always an excuse in a race like the July (with the probable most important factor being to get cover). I am not upset about the draw, it could have been worse if we had been in the middle and being bumped around. His gallop on Thursday was pleasing. He is not a horse who sets the track alight, he does what he needs to and he came out of it well.”

 

Gareth runs Dubai Dude (Declarationofpeace) and Place Of Practice (Vercingetorix) in the first race on the poly over 1600m and he said, “Dubai Dude put up an eye-catching gallop with King Pelles. If he had a draw we would be confident (but he is drawn 12 out of 12). If he doesn’t burn up too much gas from the draw he can definitely be involved. Place Of Pratice has the draw on his side and we are hoping that he is competitive, although first time out the maidens might be a bit tough for him.”

 

Grand Occasion (Danon Platina) ran at Hollywoodbets Scottsville on Sunday and runs six days later in Race 2 on July day over 1600m on the poly. Gareth said, “The pace was a bit slow for her on Sunday, but she has taken the race well and she might prefer the poly at the moment, so we will give it a go (in her last three runs on the poly she has had two wins and a second, so is in fine poly form and she has a good draw of four).”

 

Gareth has Imilenzeyokududuma (Dynasty) in the July consolation race, the Gr 3 Magical Zulu Kingdom 2200, and he said, “He is in very good form, he’s racing well and he’s loving his work and just loving life. He is looking like a young horse again and I would be surprised if he doesn’t contend the finish here.”

 

Tomyris (Vercingetorix) is also running in the Magical Kingdom and Gareth said, “She raced on Sunday and there is a chance she likes this 2200m trip. If she does she can maybe earn a cheque considering her light weight.”

 

Imposing (Visionaire) has thrived in the Van Zyl yard and Gareth said ahead of his engagement in the Listed Premier Gateway International Handicap over 1600m on the turf, “He is doing very well and from a decent draw it is the right type of race for him and I make him one of the principle contenders here. His run to Zeitz last time out was a very good run (0,90 length second over 1400m at Hollywoodbets Scottsville giving the latter 1,5kg) and proved he is competitively handicapped off a 107 merit rating. He is in a good space, he is a genuine horse.”

 

Gareth runs Serengetti Sun (Legislate) in the 11th race over 1200m on the poly and said, “She’s got more to offer. Last time from a wide draw there was merit in the run, she tired late and from a good draw this time out I think she is one of the principle contenders in this event.”

 

He runs Scarlet Starlet (Erik The Red) in the last race over 1200m on the poly and he said, “She was unlucky last time out, if she jumps well (from draw two) I think she could also be a principle contender. She is a horse with more to offer.”

 

Paul Lafferty brings the talented Danon Platina three-year-old Bruh back for his first run as a gelding having last run three months ago. He had a bit of a setback after the gelding which put him a little bit behind in his work. Paul said about his chances in Race 2 over 1600m on the poly, “He is probably a little bit behind the eightball, but I am hoping he will be up there because he is a decent horse, I have always rated him.” Bruh was looking in fine fettle when cantering past on the bottom sand track. Paul emphasised for all presenters around the country to take note of that this horse’s name is pronounced the same as the word “brew”.

 

Wendy Whitehead has the talented Buttercup Baby (What A Winter) in the 11th race, a polytrack event over 1200m. She was asked to just do a light canter on the bottom sand on Monday morning as she has had plenty of racing lately, although she will do faster work on Tuesday and Thursday. She had a gleaming coat, underlining her well-being, and Wendy said, “She likes to race up in the first section and she has a good draw with Rachel Venniker up claiming the 1,5kg. She is back on the poly which she loves. She is in a great space and will go close.”

 

Wendy’s charge Sundance Kid (Master Of My Fate) runs in race 2 over 1600m on the poly and she said, “He is working very, very well. He is coming into this race fresh (last ran on April 24), but he loves to run fresh and he loves the polytrack and 1600m is his game. He is a very competitive horse, he tries hard every time, so I am hoping for a great run. He has so much gatespeed that he should be able to overcome his draw of 12 easily (under Calvin Habib).”

 

MJ Odendaal runs Johnny The Thief from pole position in the Gr 3 Magical Kingdom 2200 and he said, “He ran fourth in this race last year, despite things not going his way.. He ended up leading and he’s always been better from off the speed. He normally runs well quite fresh, so we’re coming into the race fresh (last ran on April 24). He had a proper, proper mile gallop last week Tuesday. I am not saying we are going in confident, but I’m quietly confident he will be in the money.”

 

Interestingly, Johnny The Thief sneaks into the handicap with the minimum weight of 52kg off his 94 merit rating and last year he was 2kg under sufferance off a 92 rating.

Weights favour Buffalo Storm Cody

David Thiselton

 

The Gr 3 Post Merchants will be one of the most interesting races on Hollywoodbets Durban July day, but the conditions of the race mean the highest rated horses are ostensibly slung in.

 

The highest rated horse in the land, the 132-rated twice Gr 1-winning sprinter Buffalo Storm Cody, is thus very well in at the weights, and second best in is Dave The King, who is the most interesting runner, followed by Tenango and Princess Of Gaul, who are joint third best in.

 

The race has merit-rated band conditions with one key difference.

 

Usually the horses that are higher rated than the highest band are allotted half-a-kilogram for every point they are above that highest band.

 

However, the highest band in this case reads “122 or more … 62kg”.

 

That band would normally read 122 to 126 and under the normal rules for merit-rated band events Buffalo Storm Cody would be carrying 65kg as he is six points higher than the top rating of the highest band. So, he is ostensibly 3kg well in carrying 62kg.

 

Dave The King would normally be carrying 63kg, but carries 62kg, so is 1kg better off than normal, but is 2kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody.

 

Tenango is merit rated 126, so he is top of what the band would normally be, but is officially 3kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody.

 

Equally well treated with the latter is the crack filly Princess Of Gaul, who is 114-rated but gets a 2,5kg gender allowance.

 

The worry about Buffalo Storm Cody is that he might be using it as a preparation for the Gr 1 Mercury Sprint, which he appeared to do last year because last year he only ran a 1,65 length fourth in this race carrying 56kg, meaning he was 5,5kg better off than weight for age with the highest rated runner, and he then came out and won the weight for age Mercury Sprint over the same course and distance by 1,60 lengths. Interestingly he jumped from draw 9 in the Mercury, the same draw he has in this year’s Post Merchants. This horse does appear at his best around the turn. Richard Fourie up is a bonus.

 

Dave The King is interesting, because although his best form is over a mile and middle distances he went at a blistering gallop in the L’Ormarins King’s Plate. It was a ridiculous pace, but he displayed his speed around the turn in that race as he went through the first 400m in a time just 1,7 seconds slower than the pacemaker and the winner of the Gr 1 World Pool Cape Flying Championship over 1000m. He has had four starts over 1200m in his career and won three of them easily and his only loss was when returning from a layoff and having a seasonal reappearance preparation run and running just 2,65 lengths behind former Post Merchants winner, the now 127-rated Gladatorian. Dave The King has drawn seven which should give him room to go to the front if quick enough and the latter is actually a concern, because of course leading over 1200m is a different ball game to leading over 1600m.

 

Tenango ran a good 1,95 length seventh in the Gr 2 Golden Horse Sprint, where he carried topweight. That should have brought him on for this race and he has a plum draw of five. Keagan de Melo is contracted to part-owner Laurence Wernars and takes the ride here having not ridden him in the Golden Horse. He will likely be all out to win this race as the Mercury will be a lot tougher, although he did show his class and course and distance suitability by finishing a fine second in the latter race last year, despite jumping from draw 13. Tenango looks to be a massive runner.

 

Princess Of Gaul is also a big runner carrying just 55,5kg and jumping from draw three under Craig Zackey. She won the Gr 2 World Pool With Race Coast Debutante over course and distance last year in just her second career start. Last time out she showed he class over this trip by finishing just 2,60 lengths behind Asiye Phambili and Double Grand Slam in the Gr 1 SA Fillies Sprint. If the latter pair were in the Merchants they would likely be the two favourites so with Princess Of Gaul beaten by that margin under weight for age conditions and now being 4kg better off than weight for age conditions with the first three mentioned she should also be a massive runner.

 

Cafe Culture is a former winner of this race, but is officially 4kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody and has a tough draw of 13, but he should be kicking on if managing to find cover in a handy position.

 

One of the joint topweights is the 122-rated Outlaw King, who is thus officially 5kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody. However, he is ultra courageous and often defies the official weights, as he did when a 1.05 length third in the Cape Flying. His last run in the Golden Horse is best ignored as he stumbled at the start.

 

Cats Pajamas is also rated 122 and has a fine course and distance record and was just a 1,75 length fourth in the Mercury last year. However, he has the widest draw of all.

 

Speedman is rated only 105 and carrying 54kg is officially 6kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody, but he is an up and coming sort who could prove better than rated, so he is the dark horse.

 

One Eye On Vegas was third in the Golden Horse and finds himself officially 4,5kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody, but he is a progressive sort with speed and class so should be running on from draw 11.

 

Jet Force is also a classy sort who could surprise dropped down in trip. He is 4,5kg under sufferance with Buffalo, but is well drawn.

 

Jerusalema Rain beat Buffalo Storm Cody by a neck in the Gr 2 Senor Santa over 1160m, but is now 4kg worse off.

 

The ones mentioned are the ones who make the most appeal and the selection is Buffalo Storm Cody to beat Tenango with Princess Of Gaul, Speedman and Jet Force next best.

Happy Verse for Lloyd

David Thiselton

 

Rising young jockey sensation Zac Lloyd has been booked to ride the Justin Snaith-trained Happy Verse in the Hollywoodbets Durban July.

 

The Vercingetorix gelding looks to be one of the most progressive horses in the country.

 

The three-year-old has always been packed with potential, but became a bit disappointing,

 

However, he is now clearly coming to hand with gelding and should be spot on for the July.

 

Zac will be hoping to break the famous July trend of his legendary father Jeff, who never won the big race but finished third on no fewer than nine occasions, although he did finish second on his final mount in 2018.

 

Zac Lloyd has ridden 6 Group 1 winners in his career already.

 

The 22-year-old secured three Group 1 victories within the span of a single month in early 2026.

 

The highlight of his career to date has been winning Australia’s biggest sire producing race, The Aus$5 million Golden Slipper this year on Guest House.

 

He is currently on a busman’s holiday in the UK and rode a double at Doncaster on Saturday in his first meeting in the country.

 

Happy Verse is set to carry 54,5kg in the Hollywoodbets Durban July as things stand and is at a price of 6/1 with the sponsor.

60 years on from Sea Cottage shooting

David Thiselton

 

The July build up of 60 years ago was like no other before it and It is fitting that this year’s Hollywoodbets Durban July, carrying a record-breaking stake of R10 million, falls on such an auspicious anniversary date

In the month of May 60 years ago the great Sea Cottage began his July preparation by running in a race often used by Syd Laird as starting point for his best July contender, the Gr 1 Newbury Stakes over 1200m.

Sea Cottage beat another famous horse in the 1966 Newbury renewal, the previous year’s Gr 1 SA Guineas winner William Penn, whose story bears repeating.

Willaim Penn had won six Grade 1s up until being retired to stud in 1969 and was a July runner up by half-a-length in 1968, carrying topweight and giving the winner Chimboraa 24 pounds.

His wins included the 1968 J&B Met with topweight. He was two-one up in meetings between himself and his more celebrated half-brother Hawaii, who went on to become USA’s Champion Grass Horse as well as a successful sire, standing at Claiborne where he produced 25 stakes winners including Epsom Derby winner Henbit. William Penn proved infertile at stud, siring only nine foals, although they included three stakes winners. He was brought out of retirement as a ten-year-old and the first run of his comeback was in the J&B Met of January 1972. He flew up for second, three lengths behind the winner Force Ten to whom he gave 18 pounds. He went on to race successfully until he was eleven, the best performance of his final season being a 0,2 length second to the great In Full Flight in the Grade 1 Champions Stakes over 2000m at Greyville, beating another champion, Mazarin.

Back To Sea Cottage who was back at Greyville a week after the Newbury Stakes to win the Gr 1 SA Guineas by 3,5 lengths, his eleventh career victory in just 12 starts.

Six days later the country woke up to shocking news.

On that bright Friday morning Sea Cottage had been shot while walking under the Blue Lagoon bridge on the way to the Syd Laird ring on the beach.

The story is well documented with the shooter Johnny Nel being apprehended later the same day. The well-known gangster had foolishly used his easily recognisable yellow-coloured convertible to drive to the shelter on the south side of the bridge, which is still the same structure today as it was back then, to perform the dastardly deed.

He was allegedly acting on behalf of bookmaker Sonny Chislett, who had allegedly approached the owner of the Monaco Club, Monty Labuschagne, with the news that if Sea Cottage won the July he would have to close his business and therefore he demanded the debt he was owed by the latter be paid up.

Labuschagne’s alleged response was what would it be worth if they stopped Sea Cottage from winning the July and Chislett’s alleged response was that he would forego the debt.

It was Nel, a bouncer at the Monaco club, who hatched the plan.

If Nel can be forgiven to any extent it was in his later testimony that he had found it difficult to shoot an animal and had deliberately aimed for the soft flesh of the hindquarter in order to not kill him.

Syd Laird was still able to nurture Sea Cottage through the worst of the injury and he had him ready to run in the July three weeks after the shooting.

The big bay unfortunately suffered interference at a crucial stage and ended up running a four length fourth.

It was a bitter-sweet day for Laird because Sea Cottage’s six-year-old stablemate Java Head won the race.

However, the following year saw the July’s most celebrated renewal.

The 1967 SA Guineas winner Jollify, who was receiving 27 pounds from Sea Cottage, stole a march at the top of the straight under a fine ride by John Gorton.

Sea Cottage had a lot of ground to make up, but began eating up the ground.

He had to get around King Willow, who was going straight, before the natural instinct of shifting towards the leader, was able to happen.

A flying Sea Cottage with his enormous stride bore down on the three-year-old, despite the latter showing no signs of stopping.

The two Birch Brothers-bred horses flashed past the post together.

But had Sea Cottage got there in time?

Commentator Ernie Duffield thought not and said, “I think Jollify has held on.”

Minutes later the on course crowd let out a roar when the numbers were put up together to declare a dead-heat.

But the rest of the country apparently had to endure an agonising wait for news as the radio commentary ended and they went back to the  studio.

Craig Peters, who has by the way commentated 39 Julys, ten more than Ernie Duffield’s previous record of 29, recalled that day, at which time he was a young boy living with his parents in Mayfair, Johannesburg.

He said, “It was only sometime later on Pat Carr’s Forces Favourites program that we heard it was a dead-heat and I was absolutely elated (especially considering he had shed tears after Sea Cottage’s defeat the previous year). We saw the photo in the Stop Press and about two weeks later we watched the African Mirror footage of the race at the Drive-In. I remember also being at Sea Cottage’s last ever race, the Cutty Sark at Gosforth Park, which attracted a massive crowd. I watched by standing on the bonnet of my father’s car.”

“The immortal” Sea Cottage won twenty of his 24 races and there was still a reminder of him nearby at Hollywoodbets Greyville until recent years.

Syd Laird had always been terrified somebody would “get to” Sea Cottage and had metal plates fitted over the air vents on the road side of his stable.

His old stable served as a vendor stall in recent times at The Stables Lifestyle Market next to the Hollywoodbets KIng’s Park rugby stadium.

His stable was the third one down from the main entrance.

Those rusty metal plates were still in place across the air vents on the roadside of the stall until the closure of the market in March 2020.

Sadly, the building soon became completely dilapidated and an intriguing piece of Durban history went down with it.

Hollywoodbets Durban July first entries

David Thiselton

 

There are 63 entries for the R10 million Hollywoodbets Durban July to be run on July 4 over 2200m at Hollywoodbets Greyville.

 

Champion trainer Justin Snaith, who is going for a sixth July win, led the way with ten entries headed by the WSB Cape Town Met and World Pool Premier’s Champions Challenge winner See It Again. He also has last year’s July runner up Eight On Eighteen in his team as well as dual Gr 1 winner Wish List, the Met runner up Legal Counsel, the exciting Lucky Fish Cape Derby runner up Note To Self as well as Okavango, Happy Verse, Native Ruler, Regulation and Great Plains. Note To Self could be the one to side with, because this big son of Futura has a fine turn of foot and as things stand will have a nice galloping weight of 54kg, presuming the 130 rated See It Again will stand his ground and be allotted top weight of 62kg.

 

The race has new conditions with the difference between this year’s and last year’s being there is a 10kg spread as opposed to a 8kg spread; there are no maximum or minimum weights for three-year-old males or for three-year-old females or for older females, and there are no minimum weights for older males.

Rather it is just a straight handicap with the normal weight for age allowances, which in the case of a 2200m race taking place in the month of July is a 2kg weight for age allowance for the three-year-olds.

Mike de Kock has also won five Julys and will now be attempting to win one as a partner of his son Mathew. They have four entries headed by Gr 1 Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas winner Jan Van Goyen, Gr 2 SA Derby winner Curious Girl, Gr 2 Gauteng Guineas winner Splittheeights and the former Zimbabwean Triple Crown winner Buster Barnes. Of those Splittheeights looks to have some fine formlines and is potentially well weighted, although as things stand he is officially 2,5kg under sufferance off a 109 merit rating.

Dean Kannemeyer will be going for a fifth win in the big race, but last year’s winner The Real Prince is his sole entry.

Sean Tarry has won the July twice before and he has entered three horses, including Gr 1 SA Classic winner Grand Empire. The latter is officially 1,5kg under sufferance as things stand, an unusual occurrence for a Gr 1 winner, so he has to be considered potentially well weighted.

James Crawford now heads the yard who won the race twice in succession in 2023 and 2024 as his father Brett has relocated to Hong Kong.

James played a big part in both victories and has three entries, including the progressive pair Star Major and Reet Petite. They both have the perfect merit rating for a three-year-old as things stand, 114, because that means they come into the race with bottom weight of 52kg and they sneak into the handicap.

The other three trainers with entries who have won the race before are Alec Laird, Glen Kotzen and Candice Bass.

Laird has a big entry of six, headed by the Gr 1 winners Fire Attack and Atticus Finch. Fire Attack has had a disappointing season, but at his best he possesses a strong finish, so can’t be written off. Atticus Finch suffered epistaxis in last year’s race, but if things go well for him this former Betway Summer Cup winner has the class to be a threat, although he will have to carry a big weight of 60,5kg off his 127 rating as things stand.

Kotzen has entered the brave stayer Holding Thumbs, who will try his heart out.

Bass has three entries including the dependable Rainbow Lorikeet and the exciting three-year-old prospect Viva’s Liberte, the best of whom is unlikely to have been seen yet.

Another interesting entry is the Jackpot City Dingaans winner Trust, who was a narrow runner up in the SA Classic and he looks potentially well weighted off a mere 110 rating, which officially puts him 2kg under sufferance as things stand. He will be out to give July nearly man Larry Nestadt a first win in the big race and the other owners, Gary Player and the Lindsay Ralphs family, will also be trying to win the July for the first time.

The filly who only just missed landing the Triple Tiara, the Corne Spies-trained Hazy Dazy, is an entry.

KZN have plenty of entries headed by the Frank Robinson-trained Betway Summer Cup winner Mocha Blend, the Stuart Ferrie-trained Gr 1 Champions Cup winner Gladatorian,  the Gareth van Zyl-trained champion stayer King Pelles and his SA Derby runner up stablemate Salani Kahle, the Nathan Kotzen-trained stayer Shoot The Rapids and his improving stablemate Field Marshal, Peter Muscutt has three entries including I Salute You, Michael Roberts has entered the classy Ladyofdistinction and there are also entries from Darryl Moore and MJ Odendaal.

Devin Heffer, Hollywoodbets Brand and Communications manager, said, “It has been a privilege for us as a leading brand to be associated with this internationally acclaimed sporting event since 2022, and every year it just gets bigger and better. With the adjustment in the race conditions and a doubling of the prize money to a record new stakes pot, the first entries list is proof that the stars are aligned and  Hollywoodbets Greyville is set to live up to its label of the ‘Theatre of Champions’ on 4 July”.

Exciting new July Handicap conditions

David Thiselton

 

The Hollywoodbets Durban July conditions have been finalised and the final field panellists might be in for an interesting evening before the Final Field And Barrier Draw Ceremony, whilst the three-year-olds look to be on the back foot at present.

 

There will be a longer handicap this year with a 10kg spread in the weights from a topweight of 62kg down to a bottom weight of 52kg.

 

Furthermore, it will just be a straight handicap, unlike recent July conditions in which there was a maximum and minimum weight for certain age groups and genders.

 

If the final field happens to have a spread that is less than 10kg, the topweight will still be 62kg. If, for example, there is a weight spread of 7kg among the entries, then the bottom weight will be 55kg.

 

If the topweights are scratched after the setting of the weights, then the new topweight will be dragged up to 62kg. For example if the topweight after scratchings is 60,5kg, it will be dragged up to 62kg and after the rest of the field have been dragged up the bottom weight will become 53,5kg.

 

The final field will not necessarily be chosen by merit rating order.

 

Justin Vermaak, Executive Racing and Bloodstock of Race Coast, said, “There will be a final field selection panel like before and merit rating will be a leading aspect, but the panel will also take current form and distance suitability into account etc.”

 

In recent years the final field panellists have not had it too tough as the field was cut up before the final field announcement, with a lot of horses being scratched due to the recognition by the connections they do not have much chance, either due to the weights not favouring them or due to them being off form – the final declaration fee could have, in those cases, been considered a waste of money.

 

However, with the longer handicap, there are going to be more horses who still have form chances on paper.

 

Looking at last year’s July for example, third-placed Selukwe was rated 111 and had to carry 54kg due to the condition that the minimum weight for an older male was 54kg. He was thus 2kg under sufferance with the 127-rated topweights, both older horses, and he was 4kg under sufferance with the officially best weighted horse, the 129 rated (nett 125-rated) Eight On Eighteen, who was set to carry 57kg despite being the highest merit rated horse in the race due to a condition that three-year-old males could not carry more than 57kg.

 

In last year’s race Oriental Charm carried 60kg, Eight On Eighteen carried 57kg and Selukwe carried 54kg.

 

Under this year’s conditions the weights for those three horses would have been: Oriental Charm 62kg, Eight On Eighteen 61kg and Selukwe 54kg. Selukwe would have been 2kg and 4kg better off with Oriental Charm and Eight On Eighteen respectively under today’s conditions.

 

He would have been 2kg better off with the winner The Real Prince too and, on paper, would have been beaten 0,30 lengths instead of by 2,65 lengths.

 

There could theoretically have been a horse who would have been even more favoured by today’s conditions than the 111-rated Selukwe example.

 

Using last year’s race under today’s conditions, an older horse who had been rated 107 would sneak into the handicap under today’s conditions.

 

A 107-rated older horse last year would have had to carry 54kg, 6kg less than the topweight, but under today’s conditions it would have only had to carry 52kg, which would be 10kg less than the 62kg topweight.

 

Therefore, there are theoretically going be a lot more horses standing their ground at the time of the final field selection process this year, because a lot more of them will have chances of winning on paper than would have been the case under the old conditions.

 

Furthermore, with stakes of R10 million up for grabs there will be less cases of horses being scratched due to the  connections deeming them to be off form. They might still want to take their chances.

 

The difficulty for the panel will come in deciding whether a lower rated horse is deemed to have better recent form or better distance suitability than a higher rated horse.

 

For argument sakes let’s assume that we go back to last year and there are still many horses standing their ground until the bitter end. After the top 17 are selected, according to the last log and current form, let’s assume the next two horses are the 115-rated Madison Valley and the 120-rated The Real Prince.

 

The Real Prince is rated five points higher than Madison Valley, but he has never run a race beyond 1600m before.

 

Madison Valley on the other hand finished a close fourth in the Betway Summer Cup over 2000m and in his final run before the July he won the traditional July pointer, the Hollywoodbets Dolphins Cup Trial over 1800m.

 

Which one are they going to put in the all important 18th slot?

 

Such a scenario is going to have much more chance of happening this year.

 

Although it has been said that weight avoidance tactics are going to be used this year, those who do take that route are probably going to run a bigger risk of not qualifying than ever before.

 

Now on to the three-year-olds.

 

Eight On Eighteen was held in high regard last year and came into the race 2kg well-in, according to official merit ratings, and yet he was not able to win the race.

 

Under today’s conditions he would have had to carry 61kg, effectively 2kg more.

 

So it was tough last year for a top, top three-year-old who was favoured by the old conditions.

 

How tough will it be for good-but-not-great three-year-olds under the new conditions, considering there is no maximum weight for them and no minimum weight for older horses?

 

Likewise it will be tough for females.

 

Furthermore, this year’s three-year-old crop are arguably overrated off their current merit ratings.

 

For example, Gauteng Guineas runner up Grand Empire could not win the Wolf Power 1600 against older horses when 2kg under sufferance off a 102 merit rating (effectively a 106 merit rating), yet he is now rated 120. There will be cries of “but the handicapper is clueless” when looking at that, but those who do say that are clueless themselves, because the handicapper rates a race on that race, not on past races, and Tin Pan Alley had earned his 117 rating by beating older horses and Grand Empire had then beaten him. Furthermore, Grand Empire was likely not at his peak for the Wolf Power with the Triple crown series looming.

 

Nevertheless, the overall impression is the current three-year-old male crop is not shining and it is questionable whether any of them have properly earned a rating of 120 or above.

 

It could well be an older horse July, but on the other hand there is an impressive unexposed horse like Note To Self among the three-year-olds and more such types might emerge.

 

The build up to this year’s Hollywoodbets Durban July is going to be more intriguing than ever!