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Weights favour Buffalo Storm Cody

David Thiselton

 

The Gr 3 Post Merchants will be one of the most interesting races on Hollywoodbets Durban July day, but the conditions of the race mean the highest rated horses are ostensibly slung in.

 

The highest rated horse in the land, the 132-rated twice Gr 1-winning sprinter Buffalo Storm Cody, is thus very well in at the weights, and second best in is Dave The King, who is the most interesting runner, followed by Tenango and Princess Of Gaul, who are joint third best in.

 

The race has merit-rated band conditions with one key difference.

 

Usually the horses that are higher rated than the highest band are allotted half-a-kilogram for every point they are above that highest band.

 

However, the highest band in this case reads “122 or more … 62kg”.

 

That band would normally read 122 to 126 and under the normal rules for merit-rated band events Buffalo Storm Cody would be carrying 65kg as he is six points higher than the top rating of the highest band. So, he is ostensibly 3kg well in carrying 62kg.

 

Dave The King would normally be carrying 63kg, but carries 62kg, so is 1kg better off than normal, but is 2kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody.

 

Tenango is merit rated 126, so he is top of what the band would normally be, but is officially 3kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody.

 

Equally well treated with the latter is the crack filly Princess Of Gaul, who is 114-rated but gets a 2,5kg gender allowance.

 

The worry about Buffalo Storm Cody is that he might be using it as a preparation for the Gr 1 Mercury Sprint, which he appeared to do last year because last year he only ran a 1,65 length fourth in this race carrying 56kg, meaning he was 5,5kg better off than weight for age with the highest rated runner, and he then came out and won the weight for age Mercury Sprint over the same course and distance by 1,60 lengths. Interestingly he jumped from draw 9 in the Mercury, the same draw he has in this year’s Post Merchants. This horse does appear at his best around the turn. Richard Fourie up is a bonus.

 

Dave The King is interesting, because although his best form is over a mile and middle distances he went at a blistering gallop in the L’Ormarins King’s Plate. It was a ridiculous pace, but he displayed his speed around the turn in that race as he went through the first 400m in a time just 1,7 seconds slower than the pacemaker and the winner of the Gr 1 World Pool Cape Flying Championship over 1000m. He has had four starts over 1200m in his career and won three of them easily and his only loss was when returning from a layoff and having a seasonal reappearance preparation run and running just 2,65 lengths behind former Post Merchants winner, the now 127-rated Gladatorian. Dave The King has drawn seven which should give him room to go to the front if quick enough and the latter is actually a concern, because of course leading over 1200m is a different ball game to leading over 1600m.

 

Tenango ran a good 1,95 length seventh in the Gr 2 Golden Horse Sprint, where he carried topweight. That should have brought him on for this race and he has a plum draw of five. Keagan de Melo is contracted to part-owner Laurence Wernars and takes the ride here having not ridden him in the Golden Horse. He will likely be all out to win this race as the Mercury will be a lot tougher, although he did show his class and course and distance suitability by finishing a fine second in the latter race last year, despite jumping from draw 13. Tenango looks to be a massive runner.

 

Princess Of Gaul is also a big runner carrying just 55,5kg and jumping from draw three under Craig Zackey. She won the Gr 2 World Pool With Race Coast Debutante over course and distance last year in just her second career start. Last time out she showed he class over this trip by finishing just 2,60 lengths behind Asiye Phambili and Double Grand Slam in the Gr 1 SA Fillies Sprint. If the latter pair were in the Merchants they would likely be the two favourites so with Princess Of Gaul beaten by that margin under weight for age conditions and now being 4kg better off than weight for age conditions with the first three mentioned she should also be a massive runner.

 

Cafe Culture is a former winner of this race, but is officially 4kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody and has a tough draw of 13, but he should be kicking on if managing to find cover in a handy position.

 

One of the joint topweights is the 122-rated Outlaw King, who is thus officially 5kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody. However, he is ultra courageous and often defies the official weights, as he did when a 1.05 length third in the Cape Flying. His last run in the Golden Horse is best ignored as he stumbled at the start.

 

Cats Pajamas is also rated 122 and has a fine course and distance record and was just a 1,75 length fourth in the Mercury last year. However, he has the widest draw of all.

 

Speedman is rated only 105 and carrying 54kg is officially 6kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody, but he is an up and coming sort who could prove better than rated, so he is the dark horse.

 

One Eye On Vegas was third in the Golden Horse and finds himself officially 4,5kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody, but he is a progressive sort with speed and class so should be running on from draw 11.

 

Jet Force is also a classy sort who could surprise dropped down in trip. He is 4,5kg under sufferance with Buffalo, but is well drawn.

 

Jerusalema Rain beat Buffalo Storm Cody by a neck in the Gr 2 Senor Santa over 1160m, but is now 4kg worse off.

 

The ones mentioned are the ones who make the most appeal and the selection is Buffalo Storm Cody to beat Tenango with Princess Of Gaul, Speedman and Jet Force next best.

Michel’s history in the making

David Thiselton

Mickaelle Michel would never have believed in her wildest dreams when landing in South Africa last December that she would be aboard the favourite for South Africa’s greatest race, the Hollywoodbets Durban July, just seven months later. However, she will have to defy 43 years of history even if ignoring the fact that she would become the first female jockey to ever win the big race.

Mark Sutherland was the last jockey to ride the winner of the July in his first ride in the great race and that happened in 1983 on the filly Tecla Bluff, who was the first of the great trainer Terrance Millard’s six July winners.

The previous jockey to achieve the feat was Leslie Mustard, who won on the Des Rich-trained Lightning Shot in 1977 in his first July ride.

Before Mustard one would have to go as far back as 1959 to find another case.

1959 was a historic year, because the Oppenheimer family had the first of their nine July wins either as owners, breeders, or both, as their homebred four-year-old Tiger Fish made amends for his short-head defeat the previous year, He was ridden to a convincing 2,25 length victory by Bennie Little in the latter’s first ever July ride.

Bennie was the grandfather of current jockey Chad Little.

Whilst the Oppenheimer family have a fine chance this year of making it a tenth July victory with their Frank Robinson-trained homebred filly Mocha Blend, an opportunity for history to repeat itself was missed when Holding Thumbs did not make it into the final field earlier this week as this Glen Kotzen-trained Vercingetorix gelding was bred by the Oppenheimer family and Chad Little was due to ride him.

It would have been Chad’s second career July ride, his first having been 21 years ago on Tyson who finished 11th in the 2005 July.

Mickaelle will become only the second woman to have ridden in the iconic race.

Rachel Venniker made history when riding in the Hollywoodbets Durban July in 2024.

She might get a second ride in the big race this year as she is booked to ride the first reserve runner Choisaanada, an Erico Verdonese-trained horse who was somewhat controversially left out of the top 18 having been a top 18 incumbent on the last Hollywoodbets Durban July log.

It was in fact the second time a Verdonese-trained horse who had been set to be ridden by Venniker was eliminated at the last minute as the Verdonese-trained Jimmy Don was 18th on the final log in 2023, but did not make the cut.

Rachel had been set to make her July debut in 2022, but suffered a concussion and whiplash injury after a freak starting-gate accident just five days before the big race.

When she did finally have a July ride two years ago it was aboard the outsider Hluhluwe, a three-year-old 40-1 chance trained by Justin Snaith,

and she finished a 5,35 length eleventh.

Venniker and Verdonese will be hoping there is a scratching before 08H15 on Friday July 3.

The July is not an easy race to ride in, so experience would be an advantage, but a professional of Mickaelle Michel’s standing would go in with plenty of meticulous homework and preparation having been done. July replays, for example, would be a valuable tool for a first-time rider in the race and there are plenty of current jockeys and ex-jockeys who would be willing to offer advice.

There will be many hoping the popular French jockey can make history in about ten days time on the fourth of July.

Happy Verse for Lloyd

David Thiselton

 

Rising young jockey sensation Zac Lloyd has been booked to ride the Justin Snaith-trained Happy Verse in the Hollywoodbets Durban July.

 

The Vercingetorix gelding looks to be one of the most progressive horses in the country.

 

The three-year-old has always been packed with potential, but became a bit disappointing,

 

However, he is now clearly coming to hand with gelding and should be spot on for the July.

 

Zac will be hoping to break the famous July trend of his legendary father Jeff, who never won the big race but finished third on no fewer than nine occasions, although he did finish second on his final mount in 2018.

 

Zac Lloyd has ridden 6 Group 1 winners in his career already.

 

The 22-year-old secured three Group 1 victories within the span of a single month in early 2026.

 

The highlight of his career to date has been winning Australia’s biggest sire producing race, The Aus$5 million Golden Slipper this year on Guest House.

 

He is currently on a busman’s holiday in the UK and rode a double at Doncaster on Saturday in his first meeting in the country.

 

Happy Verse is set to carry 54,5kg in the Hollywoodbets Durban July as things stand and is at a price of 6/1 with the sponsor.

Star Major to make the ‘News’

David Thiselton

Star Major is the second favourite for the Gr 1 Daily News 2000 and this progressive Querari colt has been in fine fettle at Randjesfontein after his superb win in the Gr 2 WSB Guineas.

Tim Woodruff is the Randjesfontein assistant to trainer James Crawford and he said about the Maine Chance Farms-bred bay, who is owned by passionate Durban-born owner, Ravi Naidoo, together with Neville Isdell, Mr J I Bloch and Mrs Prakashni Pillay.

Tim said, “He is all good, we have just tried to freshen him up because it is a quick turnaround between races, but he is doing good. You do get your things between races you sometimes have to deal with, but I do think he will be alright for the Daily News.”

Star Major jumped from a wide  draw in the WSB Guineas and was dropped out.

He turned for home in last place with a number of lengths to make up, but then produced a good turn of foot followed by an impressively resolute finish coupled with an eyecatching late gear change that saw him surging to a 0,90 length victory over the hot favourite Tin Pan Alley.

 Of course sectional timing invariably shows that apparent late surges or apparent flying finishes are usually an optical illusion caused by the other horses slowing down at a more rapid rate than the apparently strong-finishing horse. Invariably the surging horse is actually also slowing down.

Indeed the sectional timing of the WSB Guineas shows Star Major’s 100m to finish time to be his slowest sectional of the entire race.

However the fact that he was able to have the fastest 100m to finish time of the whole field, despite having had to make up many lengths to get there, seems to show that he has got some stamina.

He did win the Gr 3 Politician Stakes over 1800m and finished a fair 3,20 length fourth in the Gr 1 Lucky Fish Cape Derby over 2000m, both at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth. In the latter race he ran on despite having been a bit keen in the running.

That would illustrate he has the stamina, but hopefully he will be able to settle better this time.

He settled very well in  the WSB Guineas and due to his wide draw Tim Woodruff said the same tactic of being dropped out will be employed.

He added, “Obviously it’s a short straight so it’s obviously not ideal. But just looking for a good run  and then obviously the July afterwards.”

He gave his opinion on the 2000m distance, “He should get the trip.”

Querari won a Gr 1 over 2000m and Star Major is out of a mare by stamina influence Silvano and this mare not only won over 1900m, but was an own sister to Follow The Star, who won the Listed Glenair Trophy over 2800m.

So on pedigree he will easily stay the trip.

Mickaelle Michel retains the ride and if winning it she will become only the second woman in SA history to win a Gr 1, the only one to date to have won one being Lisa Prestwood on the Buddy Maroun-trained Al Nitak in the Golden Horse Sprint on June 1, 2023, almost exactly 23 years ago.

Mickaelle has been in excellent form and Tim confirmed that if everything went well in the Daily News she would keep the ride for the Hollywoodbets Durban July too.

Tim agreed she had been outriding many of her male weighing room colleagues and added, “She has got the touch.”

It would be somewhat ironic if Mickaelle did win the Daily News with a horse conditioned by assistant trainer Woodruff, because Tim’s mother Carol (nee Millard) was the first woman to have a professional license in SA. She had started riding work for her legendary father Terrance Millard at the age of 12 and from age 14 started riding in and winning many amateur races. She was apprenticed overseas and rode in the tough school of England and Germany in professional races. However, the SA authority of the time refused to allow her to ride in professional races in SA, gross unfairness. To get around the legalities the authority installed a rule that overseas apprentices wee not allowed to ride here. This came back to bite them because years later a top apprentice from Europe came over only for everybody to discover he was not allowed to ride here. Carol was able to ride in Cape Hunt races against professional jockeys, ironically a more dangerous discipline than flat racing, and she was able to ride in Zimbabwe under a “Day” license, which was usually utilised when there were not enough professional riders available. She remembers winning a Cape Hunt race on Hawkins, who had formerly been one of Terrance Millard’s many Gold Cup winners. She also finished second in “The Schweppes” in Zimbabwe.

But back to Star Major, who is still a colt meaning a Daily News win will look very good on his stallion CV.

Tim said, “If you win the Guineas and the Daily News it is just next level.”

Tim said Star Major had a fine chance of realising the dream of Ravi Naidoo and no doubt all the other owners too, a win in the R10 million Hollywoodbets Durban July.

He concluded, “He is ticking all the boxes, He’s a machine.”

60 years on from Sea Cottage shooting

David Thiselton

 

The July build up of 60 years ago was like no other before it and It is fitting that this year’s Hollywoodbets Durban July, carrying a record-breaking stake of R10 million, falls on such an auspicious anniversary date

In the month of May 60 years ago the great Sea Cottage began his July preparation by running in a race often used by Syd Laird as starting point for his best July contender, the Gr 1 Newbury Stakes over 1200m.

Sea Cottage beat another famous horse in the 1966 Newbury renewal, the previous year’s Gr 1 SA Guineas winner William Penn, whose story bears repeating.

Willaim Penn had won six Grade 1s up until being retired to stud in 1969 and was a July runner up by half-a-length in 1968, carrying topweight and giving the winner Chimboraa 24 pounds.

His wins included the 1968 J&B Met with topweight. He was two-one up in meetings between himself and his more celebrated half-brother Hawaii, who went on to become USA’s Champion Grass Horse as well as a successful sire, standing at Claiborne where he produced 25 stakes winners including Epsom Derby winner Henbit. William Penn proved infertile at stud, siring only nine foals, although they included three stakes winners. He was brought out of retirement as a ten-year-old and the first run of his comeback was in the J&B Met of January 1972. He flew up for second, three lengths behind the winner Force Ten to whom he gave 18 pounds. He went on to race successfully until he was eleven, the best performance of his final season being a 0,2 length second to the great In Full Flight in the Grade 1 Champions Stakes over 2000m at Greyville, beating another champion, Mazarin.

Back To Sea Cottage who was back at Greyville a week after the Newbury Stakes to win the Gr 1 SA Guineas by 3,5 lengths, his eleventh career victory in just 12 starts.

Six days later the country woke up to shocking news.

On that bright Friday morning Sea Cottage had been shot while walking under the Blue Lagoon bridge on the way to the Syd Laird ring on the beach.

The story is well documented with the shooter Johnny Nel being apprehended later the same day. The well-known gangster had foolishly used his easily recognisable yellow-coloured convertible to drive to the shelter on the south side of the bridge, which is still the same structure today as it was back then, to perform the dastardly deed.

He was allegedly acting on behalf of bookmaker Sonny Chislett, who had allegedly approached the owner of the Monaco Club, Monty Labuschagne, with the news that if Sea Cottage won the July he would have to close his business and therefore he demanded the debt he was owed by the latter be paid up.

Labuschagne’s alleged response was what would it be worth if they stopped Sea Cottage from winning the July and Chislett’s alleged response was that he would forego the debt.

It was Nel, a bouncer at the Monaco club, who hatched the plan.

If Nel can be forgiven to any extent it was in his later testimony that he had found it difficult to shoot an animal and had deliberately aimed for the soft flesh of the hindquarter in order to not kill him.

Syd Laird was still able to nurture Sea Cottage through the worst of the injury and he had him ready to run in the July three weeks after the shooting.

The big bay unfortunately suffered interference at a crucial stage and ended up running a four length fourth.

It was a bitter-sweet day for Laird because Sea Cottage’s six-year-old stablemate Java Head won the race.

However, the following year saw the July’s most celebrated renewal.

The 1967 SA Guineas winner Jollify, who was receiving 27 pounds from Sea Cottage, stole a march at the top of the straight under a fine ride by John Gorton.

Sea Cottage had a lot of ground to make up, but began eating up the ground.

He had to get around King Willow, who was going straight, before the natural instinct of shifting towards the leader, was able to happen.

A flying Sea Cottage with his enormous stride bore down on the three-year-old, despite the latter showing no signs of stopping.

The two Birch Brothers-bred horses flashed past the post together.

But had Sea Cottage got there in time?

Commentator Ernie Duffield thought not and said, “I think Jollify has held on.”

Minutes later the on course crowd let out a roar when the numbers were put up together to declare a dead-heat.

But the rest of the country apparently had to endure an agonising wait for news as the radio commentary ended and they went back to the  studio.

Craig Peters, who has by the way commentated 39 Julys, ten more than Ernie Duffield’s previous record of 29, recalled that day, at which time he was a young boy living with his parents in Mayfair, Johannesburg.

He said, “It was only sometime later on Pat Carr’s Forces Favourites program that we heard it was a dead-heat and I was absolutely elated (especially considering he had shed tears after Sea Cottage’s defeat the previous year). We saw the photo in the Stop Press and about two weeks later we watched the African Mirror footage of the race at the Drive-In. I remember also being at Sea Cottage’s last ever race, the Cutty Sark at Gosforth Park, which attracted a massive crowd. I watched by standing on the bonnet of my father’s car.”

“The immortal” Sea Cottage won twenty of his 24 races and there was still a reminder of him nearby at Hollywoodbets Greyville until recent years.

Syd Laird had always been terrified somebody would “get to” Sea Cottage and had metal plates fitted over the air vents on the road side of his stable.

His old stable served as a vendor stall in recent times at The Stables Lifestyle Market next to the Hollywoodbets KIng’s Park rugby stadium.

His stable was the third one down from the main entrance.

Those rusty metal plates were still in place across the air vents on the roadside of the stall until the closure of the market in March 2020.

Sadly, the building soon became completely dilapidated and an intriguing piece of Durban history went down with it.

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Hollywoodbets Durban July first entries

David Thiselton

 

There are 63 entries for the R10 million Hollywoodbets Durban July to be run on July 4 over 2200m at Hollywoodbets Greyville.

 

Champion trainer Justin Snaith, who is going for a sixth July win, led the way with ten entries headed by the WSB Cape Town Met and World Pool Premier’s Champions Challenge winner See It Again. He also has last year’s July runner up Eight On Eighteen in his team as well as dual Gr 1 winner Wish List, the Met runner up Legal Counsel, the exciting Lucky Fish Cape Derby runner up Note To Self as well as Okavango, Happy Verse, Native Ruler, Regulation and Great Plains. Note To Self could be the one to side with, because this big son of Futura has a fine turn of foot and as things stand will have a nice galloping weight of 54kg, presuming the 130 rated See It Again will stand his ground and be allotted top weight of 62kg.

 

The race has new conditions with the difference between this year’s and last year’s being there is a 10kg spread as opposed to a 8kg spread; there are no maximum or minimum weights for three-year-old males or for three-year-old females or for older females, and there are no minimum weights for older males.

Rather it is just a straight handicap with the normal weight for age allowances, which in the case of a 2200m race taking place in the month of July is a 2kg weight for age allowance for the three-year-olds.

Mike de Kock has also won five Julys and will now be attempting to win one as a partner of his son Mathew. They have four entries headed by Gr 1 Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas winner Jan Van Goyen, Gr 2 SA Derby winner Curious Girl, Gr 2 Gauteng Guineas winner Splittheeights and the former Zimbabwean Triple Crown winner Buster Barnes. Of those Splittheeights looks to have some fine formlines and is potentially well weighted, although as things stand he is officially 2,5kg under sufferance off a 109 merit rating.

Dean Kannemeyer will be going for a fifth win in the big race, but last year’s winner The Real Prince is his sole entry.

Sean Tarry has won the July twice before and he has entered three horses, including Gr 1 SA Classic winner Grand Empire. The latter is officially 1,5kg under sufferance as things stand, an unusual occurrence for a Gr 1 winner, so he has to be considered potentially well weighted.

James Crawford now heads the yard who won the race twice in succession in 2023 and 2024 as his father Brett has relocated to Hong Kong.

James played a big part in both victories and has three entries, including the progressive pair Star Major and Reet Petite. They both have the perfect merit rating for a three-year-old as things stand, 114, because that means they come into the race with bottom weight of 52kg and they sneak into the handicap.

The other three trainers with entries who have won the race before are Alec Laird, Glen Kotzen and Candice Bass.

Laird has a big entry of six, headed by the Gr 1 winners Fire Attack and Atticus Finch. Fire Attack has had a disappointing season, but at his best he possesses a strong finish, so can’t be written off. Atticus Finch suffered epistaxis in last year’s race, but if things go well for him this former Betway Summer Cup winner has the class to be a threat, although he will have to carry a big weight of 60,5kg off his 127 rating as things stand.

Kotzen has entered the brave stayer Holding Thumbs, who will try his heart out.

Bass has three entries including the dependable Rainbow Lorikeet and the exciting three-year-old prospect Viva’s Liberte, the best of whom is unlikely to have been seen yet.

Another interesting entry is the Jackpot City Dingaans winner Trust, who was a narrow runner up in the SA Classic and he looks potentially well weighted off a mere 110 rating, which officially puts him 2kg under sufferance as things stand. He will be out to give July nearly man Larry Nestadt a first win in the big race and the other owners, Gary Player and the Lindsay Ralphs family, will also be trying to win the July for the first time.

The filly who only just missed landing the Triple Tiara, the Corne Spies-trained Hazy Dazy, is an entry.

KZN have plenty of entries headed by the Frank Robinson-trained Betway Summer Cup winner Mocha Blend, the Stuart Ferrie-trained Gr 1 Champions Cup winner Gladatorian,  the Gareth van Zyl-trained champion stayer King Pelles and his SA Derby runner up stablemate Salani Kahle, the Nathan Kotzen-trained stayer Shoot The Rapids and his improving stablemate Field Marshal, Peter Muscutt has three entries including I Salute You, Michael Roberts has entered the classy Ladyofdistinction and there are also entries from Darryl Moore and MJ Odendaal.

Devin Heffer, Hollywoodbets Brand and Communications manager, said, “It has been a privilege for us as a leading brand to be associated with this internationally acclaimed sporting event since 2022, and every year it just gets bigger and better. With the adjustment in the race conditions and a doubling of the prize money to a record new stakes pot, the first entries list is proof that the stars are aligned and  Hollywoodbets Greyville is set to live up to its label of the ‘Theatre of Champions’ on 4 July”.

Bass-Robinson Horses (Liesl King)

Changes to the merit ratings

David Thiselton
The new merit ratings are out from the Gr 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic and the handicappers look to have largely managed to get the merit ratings back to the way they had wanted them after the TAB Gauteng Guineas.
The original line horse used for the Gauteng Guineas was Tin Pan Alley, who was rated 117, whilst the appeal panel decided a more appropriate line horse was the 108-rated Grand Empire.
However,  both of those horses are now Gr 1 winners, with Grand Empire having won the SA Classic on Saturday by a short-head from Trust, and Tin Pan Alley having slammed some of the best in the country by 1,75 lengths when winning the Gr 1 Wilgerbosdrift HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes over 1600m.
The appeal panel’s overall rating of the race thus looked to be too low.
The handicappers have managed to use the evidence from the SA Classic, as well as other factors, to get Trust back to the merit rating they had him on after the Guineas i.e 119 and have changed the ratings of the other runners accordingly.
The ratings look to now have a realistic look to them.
Meanwhile, Tin Pan Alley has been raised ten points to 128 after his impressive Horse Chestnut Stakes victory.
Hazy Dazy remains unchanged on 117 after her cosy win in the Gr 1 Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic.
The NHA press release explained all of the changes to the Gr 1 runners:
WILGERBOSDRIFT H F OPPENHEIMER HORSE CHESTNUT STAKES (GRADE 1)
Three-year-old TIN PAN ALLEY has been awarded a revised merit rating of 128, up from 117, following his emphatic victory in the Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift H F Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes run at weight-for-age over 1600m at Turffontein standside track on Saturday.
In assessing the race, the Handicappers identified the consistent TEXAS RED (third place) as the line horse, leaving his rating unchanged at 119.
TIN PAN ALLEY’S commanding win over 1600m on a yielding track dispelled any doubts about his aptitude for the trip. The Handicappers had already considered him suitable for the distance, having used him as the line horse in the original TAB Gauteng Guineas ratings. However, the TAB Gauteng Guineas was subsequently reduced to a level of 109 following an appeal.
The outcome of the TAB Gauteng Guineas appeal has had significant knock-on effects. The three-year-old cohort that dominated the Guineas was reduced from a level of 121 to 109. TIN PAN ALLEY, who finished fourth in that race, has now gone on to win a Grade 1 WFA event.
Effectively, based on the reduced Guineas level, his performance rating has risen from 104 to 128 in just 28 days. While the Handicappers clearly believe TIN PAN ALLEY improved in this race, the improvement would reasonably be measured from 117 to 128 based on the Handicapper’s original assessment of the Gauteng Guineas.
When rating the Guineas, the Handicappers considered the pecking order of the field, the quality of the race as a Grade 2 event, and fairness from a handicapping perspective to ensure horses would meet on proper handicap terms in future contests. The appeal outcome created distortions, including the subsequent reduction of TRUST’S rating from 119 to 108 – a decision made two runs after his Grade 2 Jackpot City Dingaans victory, which the Handicappers regard as contrary to the principles of handicapping.
TIN PAN ALLY’S performance in this WFA race highlights the strength of this year’s three-year-old crop.
No other horses received upward adjustments in this race. COSMIC SPEED’S rating was reduced slightly, from 124 to 122.
HKJC WORLD POOL SA CLASSIC (GRADE 1)
GRAND EMPIRE, winner of the Grade 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic over 1800m, has had his official merit rating raised from 108 to 120.
The Handicappers unanimously agreed that runner-up TRUST reaffirmed the 119 performance he achieved in the Grade 2 Jackpot City Dingaans last November, where he defeated the 118-rated JAN VAN GOYEN. The Dingaans level remains the officially adopted benchmark for that race.
In the assessment of this race, the Handicappers concluded that TRUST once again performed to that same level of 119. TRUST was used to that mark and was accordingly adjusted to 119.
A collateral line of form with TIN PAN ALLY’S win in the Wilgerbosdrift H F Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes (Grade 1) indicates that the Grade 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic is undervalued, however, the Handicappers do not practise retrospective ratings.
Furthermore, the TRUST appeal panel concluded with the following recommendation: “Following the running of the SA Classic, the Handicappers should re-evaluate the entire three-year-old crop.”
Three additional horses received merit rating increases in this race:
  • SPLITTHEEIGHTS: 109 to 116
  • ONE EYE ON VEGAS: 106 to 115
  • RADIO STAR: 95 to 107
WILGERBOSDRIFT SA FILLIES CLASSIC (GRADE 1)
HAZY DAZY’S official merit rating remained unchanged at 117 after she held off her rivals to win the Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic over 1800m. HAZY DAZY remains 3 points lower that her male counterpart GRAND EMPIRE, which is within the range of the filly’s allowance while keeping her equal to the Western Cape Leading filly WISH LIST, who is also rated 117.
The Handicappers identified LITTLEMISSMILLION as the line horse, leaving her rating unchanged at 107.
Two horses received rating increases based on their margins ahead of the line horse at level weights:
  • SCARLETT HEART (third): 91 to 108
  • DAISY JONES (fourth): 106 to 108