David Thiselton
A Middle Stakes race over 1400m and a MR96 handicap over 1000m ensure some good quality racing at Turffontein Standside today.
In the Middle Stakes race over 1400m the filly Precocious has a nett merit rating of 104, which puts her one point below the top of the highest merit rating band (102-106). The horses whose nett merit rating falls in that band are set to carry 62kg, but she gets a 2kg gender allowance, so carries 60kg. She is duly the best weighted horse in the race and is officially 1,5kg better off than any other runner. Furthermore, being by stamina influence Ideal World out of a Vercingetorix mare who won on debut over 1200m and subsequently ran two seconds from 1400m to 1450m, she should enjoy the step up in trip. She has actually run over this distance before in her second career start at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth and from a tricky draw was not disgraced, finishing 3,25 lengths back after being caught without cover in second place in the running. It has since been discovered that she likes to be sat on before delivering her fine turn of foot and that is no doubt how Gavin Lerena will ride her from a plum draw of two.
Quickfreeze has a nett merit rating of 89, which puts him on top of the 86 to 89 band and carrying 54kg plus half-a-kilogram overweight for Craig Zackey he is only 2kg out with Precocious. He is 2kg better off with Bristol Hercules for a 1,80 length beating over this trip and he is drawn in pole, so should go close over a step down in trip which might suit.
Bristol Hercules comes back down to his favourite trip and off a 92 merit rating is one point lower than the highest mark in the 90-93 band, which corresponds with a 56kg weight. He is only 2kg out with Precocious and has good draw of four, so should be involved.
Tsar Bomba is joint second best in, being just 1,5kg out with Precocious. He was lowered two points to an 89 after his last two below par runs, both over this distance, but he ran down the inside last time which was not the place to be that day and he was eased when his chances were gone. He is capable of much better and can bounce back from a plum draw of three.
The other horse who is top of his band is the 93-rated Dantonfromsandton and he can earn if able to overcome a wide draw.
In the MR96 over 1000m the high draws proved to be advantageous down the straight at the last Standside meeting and this could see Just The Two Of Us going close from draw seven. She has proved she can run against the boys when finishing third over 1000m at the Vaal Classic track three runs ago. She has become consistent with cheekpieces on and goes well for Rachel Venniker, whose 1,5kg gender allowance is a bonus. Plus Four was cleverly given a slow start by Gavin Lerena last time from a draw of three so that he could come to the outside and he stormed through late on the outside rail for a two length win. He was given a seven point raise, but this time is drawn highest of all so will get there for free and Craig Zackey has replaced Lerena. Umzingeli Wenyathi, whom Lerena rides, is only 1kg better off with Plus Four for a two lengths beating. He did run down the unfavourable inside that day so could do better, but he is drawn low in two, so Lerena might have to try and make a plan like last time.
In the first leg of the Pick 6 over 2000m Kudzu is a nice type and will have a chance if able to find cover from a wide draw. Robert Browning is in fair form and if reproducing his best recent runs from a good draw he should be right there under Gavin Lerena. Mount Darwin is five points higher for his win over this trip last time but from pole position he might be able to be involved again.
In the next leg over 1160m Winter In Auckland might have needed his last run, his first on the Highveld, but he still won and could still be ahead of the handicapper despite having been raised seven points as he is a former Cape Town horse and they tend to have suppressed ratings. Kia Kaha is three points higher for his last win over course and distance but he looks to have begun fulfilling the promise he always had and has another plum outside draw, so he could possibly make it a hattrick. Geostorm is a full brother to Buffalo Bill Cody and looks capable of improvement, so could feasibly go one better than last time.
In the seventh over 1400m American Beauty should be cherry ripe to deliver from a fair draw over a suitable trip. Somebody Somewhere is also a former Cape Town-based horse and if able to overcome a wide draw she should be right there. Cape Saffron has a good draw and should finish on top of American Beauty going on their last clash.
In the last race over 1400m the decent sort Winds Of Grace lands a plum draw of two over an ideal trip under Gavin Lerena and this consistent sort can earn a deserved third win. Two-year-old filly Winter Voice looks to have the ability to be a contender off an 85 merit rating. Fiery Frolic is by Querari out of a Silvano mare so is interesting stepped up in trip and Craig Zackey is an interesting booking, although she does have to overcome a wide draw.
In the second race over 1400m Lightinthewoods was beaten by a promising sort over 1160m last time and from a good draw should enjoy this step up in trip.
In the first race King Solomon makes most appeal from a good draw under Mickaelle Michel.
