David Thiselton
The all important last leg of the Pick 6 at the Festival Of Speed meeeting at Hollywoodbets Scottsville on Saturday is a Middle Stakes race and this gives punters an opportunity to get an edge if they do their homework.
A Middle Stakes race is a merit rated band race with wide bands of four points relating to 1,5kg spreads.
Firstly, the horses that are at the top of their bands will have an advantage over the horses that are at the bottom of their bands and, secondly, the horses that are in the highest bands will have a potential advantage over horses that are in lower bands.
The merit ratings used are the nett ratings of a horse, which is an important consideration because there are nine three-year-olds in the race.
Another fact associated with these races is that females get a 2,5kg allowance, so females are invariably the best weighted, but on the other hand it is virtually an adage in racing to say, “It is hard for the girls to beat the boys.”
If a horse is merit rated above the highest band the rule is 0,5kg for every point above the band.
Analysing a Middle Stakes race is not as simple as working out the best weighted runners as will be seen in the ensuing analysis.
The list of horses in the race and how well they are officially weighted is shown below:
Best weighted: Disting
1kg under sufferance: Chapbook, Kaalvoet, Soho Star, Green Gateway,
1,5kg under sufferance:
2kg under sufferance: Dreamworld, Banff
2,5kg under sufferance: Cognac, Golden Rule
3kg under sufferance: Magic Surprise, City Of Love, Vibe SA
3,5kg under sufferance: Freedom Fighter, Saudi Cat, Red Mountain, Best Of All, Cavalry Commander
4,5kg under sufferance: Etiquette, Red Mountain
The merit rated bands for this race are:
61,5kg = nett merit ratings of 99 to 102 – Green Gateway (nett MR 102), Golden Rule (99), Soho Star (102)
60kg = 95 to 98 – Disting (96 – female 2,5kg allowance= 57,5kg), Dreamworld (97), Banff (97)
58,5kg = 91 to 94 – Saudi Cat (91), Cognac (93), Vibe SA (92)
57kg = 87 to 90 – Magic Surprise (89), City Of Love (89)
55,5kg = 83 to 86 – Best Of All (85), Etiquette (83)
54kg = 79 to 82 – Freedom Fighter (82), Cavalry Commander (82)
52,5kg = 75 to 78 – Red Mountain (77)
62kg = Kaalvoet (103), Chapbook (103) because they are both 1 point above the highest band.
It is now important to look at how these runners have fared in previous such merit rated band conditions races, if they have run in any.
Disting was just 1,30 lengths back in a Middle Stakes race last time off this same merit rating. That was over 1000m on the Hollywoodbets Greyville poly. In December she was at the bottom of her band in a B Stakes race over 1200m and was beaten 3.25 lengths, not a bad effort.
Chapbook is a reserve runner but ran a cracker last time out in a Listed handicap over 1100m at this course. He is now effectively on top of his band so if he was able to do so well in a handicap and he is now better off than he would have been in a handicap, then he will be a massive runner here if a horse is scratched and he gets a place in the field.
Kaalvoet actually won that race and is now in this race with the same merit rating as Chapbook. He beat Chapbook by 1,60 lengths and is only 2kg worse off, so is only fractionally worse off than Chapbook on the weight turnaround. Kaalvoet must thus be a massive runner here.
Green Gateway lost two lengths on his KZN debut in a poly race so that race can be ignored. Before that he won the Sophomore Sprint over 1200m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth, beating 104 rated Roland Garross by a neck when receiving just 1kg. He was raised to 105, which puts him at the top of his band and Roland Garros has won twice since, including the lucrative Big Cap. Green Gateway would thus be the horse to beat on that formline, but on the other hand his last run followed a four month layoff and gelding, so he might still need this run.
Soho Star has not been in good form in his last two starts and is unlikely to get in as second reserve.
Dreamworld is hard to assess because he hasn’t raced since last September, but he did win the Gr 3 Winter Nursery beating the likes of All The Rage, so that makes him potentially very well weighted here.
Banff is only 1,5kg better off with Kaalvoet for a 2,70 length beating and that still puts her at just over a 1,5kg disadvantage with Kaalvoet on paper. However, interestingly, before that Banff was beaten 1,50 lengths by Kaalvoet in a 1000m race at the Vaal and is now effectively 5kg better off from that run if wfa month by month changes are taken into account. So that puts him well in with Kaalvoet here and he now has his third run after a layoff. So he has to be considered over a suitable trip, especially as he is just one point off the top of his band, Furthermore, he had the tricky draw of one in the In Full Flight Stakes and now has draw eight.
Cognac was well beaten in a middle stakes race over this trip in February at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth and last time was in the middle of the band off a NETT 94 in a B Stakes race over 1000m at Hollywoodbets Greyville and was beaten 3,50 lengths. Now he is one off the top of the band and should have come on from that last race and has won over this course and distance before.
Vibe SA is two off the top of that band and was beaten three lengths the last time he ran in a Middle Stakes event over 1160m off this same mark.
Saudi Cat is on the bottom of his band and hasn’t run since September last year, but in that race he beat the like of Star Major, so he is the second of the Vaughan Marshall runners who are difficult to assess. However, such is his reputation that he has been priced up as favourite with Hollywoodbets.
Magic Surprise and City Of Love are one point off the top of their band. Magic Surprise is 2,5kg better off with Kaalvoet for a 2,60 length beating in the In Full Flight for the reason that the 1,5kg claim of Rachl Venniker can be taken this time. That puts him just 0,4kg out with Kaalvoet, so he an outsider to consider at 25/2.
City Of Love was just 2,40 lenghs back in the In Full Flight and the gender claim of Mickaelle Michel can be taken, so he is only 0,26kg out with Kaalvoet and he is superb value at 17/1.
Best Of All is one off the top of his band but was well beaten in a handicap last time over 1100m, so can’t be fancied.
Etiquette is at the bottom of his band and is off form and is also 4,5kg undr sufferance and will find this too sharp.
Cavalry Commander is at the top of his band and although 3,5kg under sufferance due to being in a lowly band he won a handicap easily last time in his second run outside of Cape Town, so he could earn.
Red Mountain is one off the top of the lowest band and is hence 4,5kg under sufferance.
So after all that there is still a choice to make, but the readers can use the above analysis to narrow it down and hopefully the article will have given them the tools to make their own analyses of these type of races.
