David Thiselton

The Hollywoodbets Greyville meeting today has four races on turf followed by five races on the poly.

Lady Jean should give punters a good chance in race one over 1200m. She qualifies for a big R3 million Sales race and she will book her place if winning this Juvenile Plate over 1200m. She brings an eye-catching maiden win from the strong centre of Cape Town with her.  Even with a penalty for a win she should be able to beat the boys here. That is especially when considering the form of her win has been franked. In The Red ran a good second in his second start and has a good draw, so should be the chief threat.

The second race over 1900m could also go to a horse with Cape Town form, No Pressure, who has run well with blinkers on in his last two starts over 1400m. Being by Ideal World he might well relish the step up in trip here. Fire Force and Qhude Manikiniki make most appeal as the dangers.

The third race over 1200m is wide open and it is not easy to find a winner. What A Passion finished close up to a promising sort last time and is the one who makes most appeal, but she will have to overcome a tricky draw. Kwali Bana won well on the poly last time and could be in the shake up if able to overcome a wide draw. Sakura Hanami brings some good Johannesburg form and should be right there.

In the next race over 1200m The Aversator has to carry 58,5kg against older horses, but he has not been disgraced against some of the best three-year-olds in the land and should enjoy this trip in his comeback after a short layoff. His pole position draw will help too. Golden Rule also has a wide draw and also returns from a short layoff, plus he has a big weight of 62kg to carry. However, he has some class and could make a late charge. Magic Tattoo would likely prefer 1000m but he has won on the poly here over this trip and could be a contender.

In the first of the polytrack races Zoombomber brings some good Highveld form over this sort of trip and makes appeal to win it because he has gone close on the poly before. Longsword is a decent Highveld horse and should be finishing strongly, as usual, from a good draw.

In the sixth race over 1200m Back At The George is in fine form and is drawn in pole over an ideal trip.

In the seventh over 1600m Count Of Rouen has class and a number of horses who have performed below par in Cape Town during the Summer have bounced back to form in their own provinces. His merit rating has come down and he should be thereabouts. The consistent Gotta Go Eddie could be the main danger.

The eighth over 1600m is an open race, but Royal Sword, Faire Advantage and Pied Piper make most appeal. World Of Our Own has to be considered too and Vencedor is interesting on the poly.

In the last race over 1200m One Irish Rover gets a good opportunity against an uninspiring field from a good draw and is taken to beat In The Bag and Little Cracker.

Race 1

4 LADY JEAN won well second time out in the strong centre of Cape Town and can book her place in the R3 million Race Coast Slipper by winning here and she looks good enough to do so against the boys despite carrying a penalty for a win. 2 IN THE RED went close second time out and could be the chief threat. 1 SPIRIT OF GABZ has shown some fair form on the Highveld and should be in the shake up from pole position. 5 LADY GODIVA won well third time out and the form has been franked so she could be a contender despite carrying a penalty. (David Thiselton 4-2-1-5)

Race 2

2 NO PRESSURE ran two good races with blinkers on in Cape Town and this will likely be an easier task and being by Ideal World out of a Trippi mare he should enjoy the step up in trip. 1 FIRE FORCE has good recent form over staying trips and should handle a step down to 1900m from pole positions. 4 QHUDE MANIKINIKI ran a cracker when stepped up to 1900m last time and should be involved. 8 SKIPPER O’MALLEY has hard knocking form and is distance suited but does have a wide draw. (David Thiselton 2-1-4-8)

Race 3

7 WHAT A PASSION has shown good form on both the turf and poly over this trip and could still improve, but she does have a wide draw. 9 KALI BWANA won well last time over this trip and can be involved if able to overcome a wide draw off a reasonable opening handicap mark of 77. 4 SAKURA HANAMI has the form to be involved from a fair draw. 5 YOUR LADYSHIP is drawn in the middle and might enjoy the step down in trip. (David Thiselton 7-9-4-5)

Race 4

1 AVERSATOR has faced the best in the country without being disgraced and he should go close over this trip as he ran two fine races over 1400m here last year in April and June, including coming second in the Listed Gatecrasher Stakes. 11 GOLDEN RULE has a big weight to carry and a wide draw, but he has class and has been in good form over 1400m. 7 MAGIC TATTOO has the form to be a contender, although he would probably prefer 1000m. 6 DONQUERARI is also at his best over 1000m but has won over this trip on the Hollywoodbets Greyville poly before, so might be up to it. (David Thiselton 1-11-7-6)

Race 5

4 ZOOMBOMBERs’ recent best form has been over sprints so he could go close from a good draw. 2 LONGSWORD is capable of a strong finish so should enjoy this course and distance. 3 BANK STREET is course and distance suited and well draw. 5 THE MASK is in good form and could earn. (David Thiselton 4-2-3-5)

Race 6

4 THAT’S MY BABY loves this venue and can bounce back to winning ways. 1 BACK AT THE GEORGE has a fine form chance from pole position. 7 SOVEREIGN GRANT should be in the shake up if able to overcome a tricky draw. 6 HIERKOMMIEBOKKIE will be dangerous if able to get to the front relatively easily. (David Thiselton 4-1-7-6)

Race 7

5 COUNT OF ROUEN has class and might follow in the footstep of other raisers to Cape Town who ran below par down there but bounced back in their hometowns with fine runs. 4 GOTTA GO EDDIE is always thereabouts and has the form to be a contender. 2 PARMENION is competitively merit rated on his best form and could be in the shake up. 8 IMPERIAL POWER is consistent and should go close if able to overcome a wide draw. (David Thiselton 5-4-2-8)

Race 8

2 ROYAL SWORD won well on his poly debut last time and can follow up. 3 FAIRE ADVANTAGE has the form to be thereabouts if given a good ride by a 4kg claimer. 5 PIED PIPER is in fine form and should make another bold bid. 6 WORLD OF OUR OWN beat Faire Advantage and Pied Piper comfortably last time but has a tricky draw and this is tougher. (David Thiselton 2-3-5-6)

Race 9

2 ONE IRISH ROVER is off a competitive mark and should be in the shake up. 4 IN THE BAG has the form to be a contender. 8 LITTLE CRACKER is also one for the shortlist in the line up. 7 L’ULTIMO has the form to earn here. (David Thiselton 2-4-8-7)

Please note: South African Quartet Pools with fractional betting offered at Doncaster and Southwell (UK) – 28 March 2026.

• SPLITTHEEIGHTS: 109 to 116
• ONE EYE ON VEGAS: 106 to 115
• RADIO STAR: 95 to 107

• SCARLETT HEART (third): 91 to 108
• DAISY JONES (fourth): 106 to 108

David Thiselton

The Hollywoodbets Durban July conditions have been finalised and the final field panellists might be in for an interesting evening before the Final Field And Barrier Draw Ceremony, whilst the three-year-olds look to be on the back foot at present.

There will be a longer handicap this year with a 10kg spread in the weights from a topweight of 62kg down to a bottom weight of 52kg.

Furthermore, it will just be a straight handicap, unlike recent July conditions in which there was a maximum and minimum weight for certain age groups and genders.

If the final field happens to have a spread that is less than 10kg, the topweight will still be 62kg. If, for example, there is a weight spread of 7kg among the entries, then the bottom weight will be 55kg.

If the topweights are scratched after the setting of the weights, then the new topweight will be dragged up to 62kg. For example if the topweight after scratchings is 60,5kg, it will be dragged up to 62kg and after the rest of the field have been dragged up the bottom weight will become 53,5kg.

The final field will not necessarily be chosen by merit rating order.

Justin Vermaak, Executive Racing and Bloodstock of Race Coast, said, “There will be a final field selection panel like before and merit rating will be a leading aspect, but the panel will also take current form and distance suitability into account etc.”

In recent years the final field panellists have not had it too tough as the field was cut up before the final field announcement, with a lot of horses being scratched due to the recognition by the connections they do not have much chance, either due to the weights not favouring them or due to them being off form – the final declaration fee could have, in those cases, been considered a waste of money.

However, with the longer handicap, there are going to be more horses who still have form chances on paper.

Looking at last year’s July for example, third-placed Selukwe was rated 111 and had to carry 54kg due to the condition that the minimum weight for an older male was 54kg. He was thus 2kg under sufferance with the 127-rated topweights, both older horses, and he was 4kg under sufferance with the officially best weighted horse, the 129 rated (nett 125-rated) Eight On Eighteen, who was set to carry 57kg despite being the highest merit rated horse in the race due to a condition that three-year-old males could not carry more than 57kg.

In last year’s race Oriental Charm carried 60kg, Eight On Eighteen carried 57kg and Selukwe carried 54kg.

Under this year’s conditions the weights for those three horses would have been: Oriental Charm 62kg, Eight On Eighteen 61kg and Selukwe 54kg. Selukwe would have been 2kg and 4kg better off with Oriental Charm and Eight On Eighteen respectively under today’s conditions.

He would have been 2kg better off with the winner The Real Prince too and, on paper, would have been beaten 0,30 lengths instead of by 2,65 lengths.

There could theoretically have been a horse who would have been even more favoured by today’s conditions than the 111-rated Selukwe example.

Using last year’s race under today’s conditions, an older horse who had been rated 107 would sneak into the handicap under today’s conditions.

A 107-rated older horse last year would have had to carry 54kg, 6kg less than the topweight, but under today’s conditions it would have only had to carry 52kg, which would be 10kg less than the 62kg topweight.

Therefore, there are theoretically going be a lot more horses standing their ground at the time of the final field selection process this year, because a lot more of them will have chances of winning on paper than would have been the case under the old conditions.

Furthermore, with stakes of R10 million up for grabs there will be less cases of horses being scratched due to the  connections deeming them to be off form. They might still want to take their chances.

The difficulty for the panel will come in deciding whether a lower rated horse is deemed to have better recent form or better distance suitability than a higher rated horse.

For argument sakes let’s assume that we go back to last year and there are still many horses standing their ground until the bitter end. After the top 17 are selected, according to the last log and current form, let’s assume the next two horses are the 115-rated Madison Valley and the 120-rated The Real Prince.

The Real Prince is rated five points higher than Madison Valley, but he has never run a race beyond 1600m before.

Madison Valley on the other hand finished a close fourth in the Betway Summer Cup over 2000m and in his final run before the July he won the traditional July pointer, the Hollywoodbets Dolphins Cup Trial over 1800m.

Which one are they going to put in the all important 18th slot?

Such a scenario is going to have much more chance of happening this year.

Although it has been said that weight avoidance tactics are going to be used this year, those who do take that route are probably going to run a bigger risk of not qualifying than ever before.

Now on to the three-year-olds.

Eight On Eighteen was held in high regard last year and came into the race 2kg well-in, according to official merit ratings, and yet he was not able to win the race.

Under today’s conditions he would have had to carry 61kg, effectively 2kg more.

So it was tough last year for a top, top three-year-old who was favoured by the old conditions.

How tough will it be for good-but-not-great three-year-olds under the new conditions, considering there is no maximum weight for them and no minimum weight for older horses?

Likewise it will be tough for females.

Furthermore, this year’s three-year-old crop are arguably overrated off their current merit ratings.

For example, Gauteng Guineas runner up Grand Empire could not win the Wolf Power 1600 against older horses when 2kg under sufferance off a 102 merit rating (effectively a 106 merit rating), yet he is now rated 120. There will be cries of “but the handicapper is clueless” when looking at that, but those who do say that are clueless themselves, because the handicapper rates a race on that race, not on past races, and Tin Pan Alley had earned his 117 rating by beating older horses and Grand Empire had then beaten him. Furthermore, Grand Empire was likely not at his peak for the Wolf Power with the Triple crown series looming.

Nevertheless, the overall impression is the current three-year-old male crop is not shining and it is questionable whether any of them have properly earned a rating of 120 or above.

It could well be an older horse July, but on the other hand there is an impressive unexposed horse like Note To Self among the three-year-olds and more such types might emerge.

The build up to this year’s Hollywoodbets Durban July is going to be more intriguing than ever!