David Thiselton

The Kings Cup was once a good Hollywoodbets Durban July pointer, with the 1967 July winner Jollify, who dead-heated in that famous race with the immortal Sea Cottage, and the 1969 July winner Naval Escort, who was a half-brother of Sea Cottage, both winning the King’s Cup on their way to those glorious victories.

No fewer than 56 renewals of the Kings Cup have passed without their being another Kings Cup July/double, but yesterday at Hollywoodbets Scottsville, the Justin Snaith-trained Okavango gave hope that the sequence could end, because considering his fine WSB Met fourth place finish and his high 123 merit rating he should be in the Hollywoodbets Durban July final field.

In the Listed 1600m race yesterday the Master Of My Fate four-year-old gelding took the lead from a wide draw and staying on gamely in the straight under Tristan Godden, he managed to repel the favourite King Pelles despite carrying 63kg and giving the latter 1kg. JP’s Palace, Field Marshal and Shoot The Rapids were the next three home but were well beaten.

The first race, a Maiden Juvenile Plate over 1200m, saw a fluent victory for the 33/20 shot, the Kom Naidoo-trained Vercingetorix filly Cherryblossompink. Anushka (Declarationofpeace) had been a touch unlucky when beaten 1,70 lengths by Cherryblossompink last time out but that was the latter’s debut and she had the advantage of expected improvement. Cherryblossompink pinged the gates under Keagan de Melo and Anushka managed to slot in behind her. Anushka looked the winner for a brief moment after switching outward at the 400m and ranging alongside Cherryblossompink, but whilst she began tiring De Melo had left a bit in the tanks and repelled her to win by 0,70 lengths.

De Melo won the second too when traveling well throughout on the Nathan Kotzen-trained Hawwaam filly Luthando, who cruised to a cosy 1,10 length victory over the Dean Kannemeyer-trained first-timer Flying Fate (Master Of MY Fate), who drifted from 4/1 out to 16/1 but stayed on well from a handy position.

In the third race over 1000m the Michael Roberts-trained Fleur De Ling is never going to be going to Hollywood, but in an uninspiring contest her second place finish last time over the course and distance was stand out form and she started 91/100 favourite. She never looked in danger of defeat and was chased home by the Paul Lafferty-trained Splash Of Love, who was returning from a seven month layoff but was interesting over a drop in trip because she had finished just 5,60 lengths back in a decent field over 1200m at this course on debut in April last year. Her strong finish carried her to a 1,50 length second and she should pay to follow in similar strength fields.

In the fourth over 1400m the province’s reigning champion trainer and current leading trainer Gareth van Zyl had Past Is Prologue involved. She won her maiden over 1200m third time out and the progeny of Futura are always going to improve as four-year-olds if not rushed and she was also going to enjoy the step up in trip. The good pace set by known front-runner Sneeuwitjie aided her cause and the ever-improving Nicholas Patel got her home by 1,30 lengths from the favourite Spirit Of Shimla.

In the fifth race over 1950m Sword Speed, by William Longsword out of the Galileo mare Zippy Zitter, relished the step up in trip and stayed on well from a handy position to beat  Go Grayson Go by 0,80 lengths. Trainer Alyson Wright said afterwards winning was a prerequisite for the connections to have a tilt at the Gr 1 SA Derby.

In the sixth over 1600m the Stuart Ferrie-trained Master Bomber (Lancaster Bomber), was given a fine ride by Serino Moodley to get the better of Tyrconnell in a thrilling finish.

In the eighth over 1000m the Paul Gadsby-trained Vercingetorix mare Vision To Achieve made it a sixth career win when getting up by 0,80 lengths under Rachel Venniker from Wings Of Josephine.

Vercingetorix made it a third win on the day in the next over 1000m when 4kg claimer Sifisokuhle Bungane steered the Glen Kotzen-trained four-year-old gelding Circumbendibus to an easy 3,10 length victory.

The last race over 1000m saw a thrilling dead-heat between the Michael Roberts-trained Jane’s Vision (Visionaire) and the Glen Kotzen-trained Call Of The Karoo (William Longsword) under riders Rachel Venniker and Chad Little respectively.

David Thiselton

The SA Derby and SA Oaks trial races, known these days as the Listed WSB Hawwaam Stakes and the Non-Black Type Ormond Ferraris Oaks Trial, both over 2000m, saw an admirable win for Diogenes and a rout by Curious Girl respectively at Turffontein Standside on Saturday, while the Listed WSB Aquanaut Handicap over 2400m was won by Daimyo.

Muzi Yeni must be one of the best at overcoming a wide draw in the country and he was at his best on Diogenes, who is ironically by Hawwaam.

The Riethuiskraal Stud-bred gelding was having his third start for Weichong Marwing, having arrived from Cape Town as the winner of one race over 1600m in five starts and that was in an open maiden in which he carried only 56kg.

He is out of the Captain Al mare Captainofmysoul, who was a five-time winning sprinter.

However, Hawwaam stayed well and with three of his five Gr 1 wins being over 2000m.

Furthermore, Weichong Marwing was once stable jockey to the maestro Ormond Ferraris, while his brother Weiho also learnt from Ferraris and is thus known as a master of staying races.

Yeni took Diogenes up handy and was caught wide initially, but saw a split second opportunity to slot in behind the pacemaker Texas Missile and took it superbly without causing any interference.

Texas Missile was the 4/1 favourite in an open looking contest and relaxed well in front, setting a steady pace.

He stayed on well in the straight and was only headed by Diogenes at the 100m mark.

Diogenese, carrying only 54kg off an 80 merit rating, was receiving 3kg from Texas Missile under the merit rated band conditions of the race and beat him by 1,50 lengths with Master Spy, Councillor and Copper Eagle next best.

Diogenes started at odds of 8/1.

His running style suggests he will enjoy the step up to the 2450m of the Gr 1 SA Derby, but he will face a much tougher task there.

In the Oaks Trial the Mike and Mathew de Kock-trained Curious Girl has got better and better in line with her becoming more mature and stepping up in trip, which is the typical pattern of her sire Futura’s progeny. She had previously won three out of five starts and the two losses were over 1600m and the three wins from 1800m up to 2400m.

Mike de Kock was another who went through the tough but beneficial learning school of Ormond Ferraris and he also has a fine record in staying races.

Curious Girl was backed in from 4/1 to 5/2 and never looked like losing under Gavin Lerena, despite her 86 merit rating meaning she had to carry joint topweight of 60kg.

She proved way better than an 86 merit rating and ran out a 5,75 length winner.

The Wilgerbosdrift Triple Tiara-chasing Hazy Dazy now suddenly has a harder task of winning the third and final leg, the Gr 2 Wilgerbosdrift SA Oaks over 2450m, than had been previously thought, especially considering Curious Girl has won over a staying trip before.

On Saturday Lerena got Curious Girl over nicely from draw seven into a midfield position with cover and within striking distance of the pace, which was set by Clouds Clearing.

In the straight the Riyo Stud-bred Curious Girl’s rangy style saw her eating up the ground and she had taken the lead by the 300m mark.

She then simply galloped away from them.

The tall filly’s big stride made the rest of the field look like small horses and the bonus for her future is that she still looks a touch gangly, so has scope for further furnishing.

The 15/10 favourite Into Dancing was receiving 1,5kg from Curious Girl and stayed on for second.

She was followed by joint topweight Ethical and next best were Scarlet O’Hara and Lady Blunt.

There was 9,45 lengths between first and sixth in the 14 horse field and Curious Girl’s time was 1,63 seconds faster than Diogenes time, despite her having to carry 6kg more weight.

It all augurs well for Curious Girl to have a tilt at the SA Oaks.

Diogenes is owned by Mr M Havenga, while Curious Girl is owned by Hollywood Racing.

In The Aquanaut Handicap over 2400m, the Alec Laird-trained five-year-old Vercingetorix gelding Daimyo scored his second Listed race win of the season over the Turffontein 2400m trip.

Daimyo managed to dictate from the front as he was beautifully relaxed under Calvin Habib and he duly found a lot in the straight carrying 57,5kg off a 99 merit rating to keep the progressive 103-rated Aladdin’s Lamp at bay by 2,30 lengths with the 96-rated Enflame running on well for third.

Daimyo is owned by Messrs K P Nagendran & R V Norton & Mrs C Nagendran.

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David Thiselton

The Hollywoodbets Durban July conditions have been finalised and the final field panellists might be in for an interesting evening before the Final Field And Barrier Draw Ceremony, whilst the three-year-olds look to be on the back foot at present.

There will be a longer handicap this year with a 10kg spread in the weights from a topweight of 62kg down to a bottom weight of 52kg.

Furthermore, it will just be a straight handicap, unlike recent July conditions in which there was a maximum and minimum weight for certain age groups and genders.

If the final field happens to have a spread that is less than 10kg, the topweight will still be 62kg. If, for example, there is a weight spread of 7kg among the entries, then the bottom weight will be 55kg.

If the topweights are scratched after the setting of the weights, then the new topweight will be dragged up to 62kg. For example if the topweight after scratchings is 60,5kg, it will be dragged up to 62kg and after the rest of the field have been dragged up the bottom weight will become 53,5kg.

The final field will not necessarily be chosen by merit rating order.

Justin Vermaak, Executive Racing and Bloodstock of Race Coast, said, “There will be a final field selection panel like before and merit rating will be a leading aspect, but the panel will also take current form and distance suitability into account etc.”

In recent years the final field panellists have not had it too tough as the field was cut up before the final field announcement, with a lot of horses being scratched due to the recognition by the connections they do not have much chance, either due to the weights not favouring them or due to them being off form – the final declaration fee could have, in those cases, been considered a waste of money.

However, with the longer handicap, there are going to be more horses who still have form chances on paper.

Looking at last year’s July for example, third-placed Selukwe was rated 111 and had to carry 54kg due to the condition that the minimum weight for an older male was 54kg. He was thus 2kg under sufferance with the 127-rated topweights, both older horses, and he was 4kg under sufferance with the officially best weighted horse, the 129 rated (nett 125-rated) Eight On Eighteen, who was set to carry 57kg despite being the highest merit rated horse in the race due to a condition that three-year-old males could not carry more than 57kg.

In last year’s race Oriental Charm carried 60kg, Eight On Eighteen carried 57kg and Selukwe carried 54kg.

Under this year’s conditions the weights for those three horses would have been: Oriental Charm 62kg, Eight On Eighteen 61kg and Selukwe 54kg. Selukwe would have been 2kg and 4kg better off with Oriental Charm and Eight On Eighteen respectively under today’s conditions.

He would have been 2kg better off with the winner The Real Prince too and, on paper, would have been beaten 0,30 lengths instead of by 2,65 lengths.

There could theoretically have been a horse who would have been even more favoured by today’s conditions than the 111-rated Selukwe example.

Using last year’s race under today’s conditions, an older horse who had been rated 107 would sneak into the handicap under today’s conditions.

A 107-rated older horse last year would have had to carry 54kg, 6kg less than the topweight, but under today’s conditions it would have only had to carry 52kg, which would be 10kg less than the 62kg topweight.

Therefore, there are theoretically going be a lot more horses standing their ground at the time of the final field selection process this year, because a lot more of them will have chances of winning on paper than would have been the case under the old conditions.

Furthermore, with stakes of R10 million up for grabs there will be less cases of horses being scratched due to the  connections deeming them to be off form. They might still want to take their chances.

The difficulty for the panel will come in deciding whether a lower rated horse is deemed to have better recent form or better distance suitability than a higher rated horse.

For argument sakes let’s assume that we go back to last year and there are still many horses standing their ground until the bitter end. After the top 17 are selected, according to the last log and current form, let’s assume the next two horses are the 115-rated Madison Valley and the 120-rated The Real Prince.

The Real Prince is rated five points higher than Madison Valley, but he has never run a race beyond 1600m before.

Madison Valley on the other hand finished a close fourth in the Betway Summer Cup over 2000m and in his final run before the July he won the traditional July pointer, the Hollywoodbets Dolphins Cup Trial over 1800m.

Which one are they going to put in the all important 18th slot?

Such a scenario is going to have much more chance of happening this year.

Although it has been said that weight avoidance tactics are going to be used this year, those who do take that route are probably going to run a bigger risk of not qualifying than ever before.

Now on to the three-year-olds.

Eight On Eighteen was held in high regard last year and came into the race 2kg well-in, according to official merit ratings, and yet he was not able to win the race.

Under today’s conditions he would have had to carry 61kg, effectively 2kg more.

So it was tough last year for a top, top three-year-old who was favoured by the old conditions.

How tough will it be for good-but-not-great three-year-olds under the new conditions, considering there is no maximum weight for them and no minimum weight for older horses?

Likewise it will be tough for females.

Furthermore, this year’s three-year-old crop are arguably overrated off their current merit ratings.

For example, Gauteng Guineas runner up Grand Empire could not win the Wolf Power 1600 against older horses when 2kg under sufferance off a 102 merit rating (effectively a 106 merit rating), yet he is now rated 120. There will be cries of “but the handicapper is clueless” when looking at that, but those who do say that are clueless themselves, because the handicapper rates a race on that race, not on past races, and Tin Pan Alley had earned his 117 rating by beating older horses and Grand Empire had then beaten him. Furthermore, Grand Empire was likely not at his peak for the Wolf Power with the Triple crown series looming.

Nevertheless, the overall impression is the current three-year-old male crop is not shining and it is questionable whether any of them have properly earned a rating of 120 or above.

It could well be an older horse July, but on the other hand there is an impressive unexposed horse like Note To Self among the three-year-olds and more such types might emerge.

The build up to this year’s Hollywoodbets Durban July is going to be more intriguing than ever!