A New Dawn, the forgotten member of Joey Ramsden’s powerful three-year-old line-up, takes on Lord Balmoral when he reappears in the All To Come Graduation Plate at Durbanville today – and it won’t be easy.

Donovan Dillon’s mount has to overcome a near six-month absence and, although the handicappers rated him 4kg behind Vaughan Marshall’s hope, he has to give his rival half a kilo.

Looking at what the R2 million Australian-bred beat over the Kenilworth 1 400m that day in April you might not rate him even as high as the official assessors but trainer and jockey left no-one in any doubt about the colt’s potential.

“He is a smashing horse, looking for this trip and more,” said Ramsden while Dillon added: “There is a lot of improvement to come. After every race he will get better and better.”

But the lesson of recent weeks is that the Ramsden class acts are vulnerable on their first runs back, particularly when they are conceding weight. Attenborough looked a certainty a furlong out only to falter and Table Bay could only manage third. Both started favourite and this time it could be the turn of Lord Balmoral to inflict the defeat

Also Australian-bred, but a fair bit cheaper at A$53,000, this colt justified odds of 1-3 on his second start in the manner of a future star, coming right away in the final 300m to win by four lengths easing up.

True, he was a big disappointment when he reappeared seven weeks ago, starting at even money and finishing a well-beaten sixth to a 25-1 shot. But he should be a different proposition this time.

In terms of sheer class these two dominate the race but Edict Of Nantes has done everything right in his last two starts, his stable is on song and if he were to complete the hat-trick it wouldn’t exactly be a shock of earthquake proportions.

Stable jockey Corne Orffer again has the mount but, a little surprisingly, he partners Varonella in the first while Greg Cheyne comes in for the mount on Brett Crawford’s other runner Varsity Cup whose form reads much better and is the selection.

Richard Fourie is on the sidelines after that horrific fall here on Wednesday when his mount Rock Stewart suffered a fatal cranial trauma. He had a number of fancied rides and Aldo Domeyer may benefit on Midtown Manhattan in race four. This one has the Crawford-trained Lady Diddeo to beat.

Michael Clower

Durbanville Saturday Oct 15 Race Previews by Warren Lenferna

1

Preview: MIGHTY HASH has consistent form but is taking time to win. His last run suggests that his winning turn could be today. VARSITY CUP returns from a rest but has run two good races thus far – if he is not in too much need of this run he should go very close – stable in form. VARONELLA returns from an even longer break but was seldom far off the action in his runs before. He could run into a quartet position. (Warren Lenferna 1-9-4)

2

Preview: LORD BALMORAL disappointed last time but I am most certainly not writing him off based on that – his maiden win was oh so impressive and he clearly has tons of ability and should be better suited to the extended trip he gets today – hard to beat. EDICT OF NANTES has won his last two in fine style and should once again be a big runner. A NEW DAWN returns from a rest but won at only the second time of asking. He should be included despite coming back from a rest. (Warren Lenferna 5-2-3)

3

Preview: GLENNIE is improving with each start and her last run she nearly won. Jockey Lucian Africa should know her well now and she rates the one to beat. Her biggest danger is QUIPPI whom made an eye catching debut when outrun very late in the race to finish second – with natural improvement she should supply plenty of cheek all the way to the wire but because Glennie has a bit more racing experience she will still be the one to beat. TIME TO THINK has a definite quartet chance. (Warren Lenferna 4-3-5)

4

Preview: MIDTOWN MANHATTAN made a cracking good debut and seems to have a bright future – to keep it short, sweet and simple, I will be disappointed if she does not go one better and win. LADY DIDDEO and THE WIDOW’S CLUB could fight out the minor money. (Warren Lenferna 7-1-10)

5

Preview: CROMPTON COURT is beautifully bred and made a fair debut. He gets extra distance today but sadly a wide draw to deal with. He should improve a lot from his debut effort and comes into this race with very strong each way claims. BRAAISTIN is taking time to win but the signs are there in a big way – he should win very soon. PURE LOGIC is improving with racing and it would be silly to ignore his chances for a bet like the quartet. (Warren Lenferna 9-1-2)

6

Preview: HAMMIE’S GAME is holding his form and went very close last time – a similar if not better run can be expected today and I have made him my first choice. SOLAR NIGHT is ultra consistent and his chances also look very bright here. MAJOR JAY, if not in too much need could finish in the first four. (Warren Lenferna 6-1-8)

7

Preview: A tough race with some exciting youngsters lining up here. All of: GIMME SIX (good form), DON’T STOP DANCING (returns from a rest but won so well on debut) and PARTY CRASHER (made an impressive winning debut) all have chances. Include as many as your budget will allow but if I were forced to choose a first selection I would go with GIMME SIX but I do have healthy respect for DON’T STOP DANCING. (Warren Lenferna 2-4-8)

8

Preview: SEATTLE GOLD ran on well last time to finish seconds and she looks cherry ripe to go one better. QUENA improved last time and based on that, has to be given a bright chance. TREASURE TOOL could do even better over the mile she gets today and is a must in the quartet – bad draw to overcome. (Warren Lenferna 5-4-16)

Two sprint races are the highlights of a nine race Turffontein meeting today, which falls three weeks before the real fireworks of the Highveld Spring season begin.

British Royale won a fine race over 1200m on the Vaal Classic course last time, especially considering he had to race wide on the turn from draw 6 out of 7. He has plenty of speed and in tomorrow’s third race, a MR 98 Handicap over 1000m, he jumps from pole position. He has scraped into the handicap with the minimum weight. He is on the up and is selected to make it three on the trot. Trip Tease has run a bit below par in his last two. However, he has now dropped to an attractive merit rating and the Louis Goosen yard have shown signs of a form return in the last couple of Highveld meetings. He should make a bold bid from a good draw over a course and distance he has one win from one run. However, it won’t be easy having to carry 64,5kg and give British Royale 12,5kg. Furthermore, Isphan is 4kg better off with Trip Tease for a 0,2 length beating in the race on Grand Heritage day. Isphan had to jump from the worst draw of all that day too. He is off an attractive merit rating and is tipped to run second with Trip Tease third.

The sixth is a Progress Plate over 1200m and the topweight Buckland looks to have it at his mercy. He is officially 5,5kg better off with any other horse according to the official merit ratings. He likely needed it in the Spring Spree Stakes over course and distance last time as it was his first outing since June and also his first after gelding. He was far from disgraced in finishing three lengths behind the top class Kangaroo Jack. His low draw of three will be particularly advantageous due to his speed and Piere Strydom up is another bonus. He is well regarded and should be capable of carrying 61kg to victory. His younger stablemate Penultimate did not have his last race pan out well for him and is a lot better than the bare form suggests. It will only be his third career start and he has to race off an 86 merit rating, so it will not be easy. However, his debut was impressive and he should be given a chance to redeem himself here from a fair draw. Duke Nukem is a consistent sort who is should be capable of running on from behind, which he might have to do from a wide draw. He is the second best in at the weights but the drawback is the breathing noises he makes. Front Rank ran on strongly from the back in the Grand Heritage, having had to track over from the inside to the standside, and finished second. He should be running on again, but this is a touch on the sharp side and he is 9kg under sufferance with Buckland on official merit ratings. Call Kelly is a capable sort and is well drawn over a suitable trip. However it is his second run after a five month layoff.

Buckland has to be considered a banker.

At first sight there could be another fair bet in the seventh, despite it being a MR 82 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1800m. Fortissima is held in high regard and proved her class when finishing second in the Gr 2 SA Oaks. She needed her seasonal reappearance, when finishing second. She was confidently expected to win that MR 76 2000m race, despite carrying 62kg, and the slow pace did her no favours. However, she now faces stronger opposition. For example Inaninstant also looks capable of rising above her current merit rating of 84. Proof of that is she beat Intergalactic in the Listed Oaks Trial over 2000m in April. She was receiving 4kg that day, but if they faced each other today she would receive 9kg, so that was a good performance and she certainly looks the part too. On the downside she is returning from a five-and-a-half month layoff. However, coming from the Sean Tarry yard, she should be fit enough. Angelic Appeal, Gain Ground and Bajan Fantasy make most appeal of the rest.

Another horse who initially struck as a possible Pick 6 banker was Bold Coast in the last race over 1600m. After winning his maiden in commanding style over 1200m, he stayed on well in a strong Graduation Plate over 1450m and on paper ran a little bit above his 77 merit rating. He was a touch outpaced in that race and this son of Bold Silvano should relish the step up in trip. However, his maiden win over 1200m has not worked out at all well and there must then be a few question marks. The solid sort Hawaiian Sun thus becomes the selection, despite having to carry top weight, and the four-year-old Rownak, who was green on debut before running on strongly to win over 1600m, is tipped for second with Bold Coast third. Street Flyer and Nawra make some appeal too and can also be included in the Pick 6.

A race which at first sight appeared to be a Pick 6 stumbling block was the eighth, a MR 68 fillies and mares handicap over 1800m. However, a closer look reveals Tambalang to be a reasonable  banker prospect on a difficult card. She starts handicapping off a reasonable looking merit rating, considering she won her maiden easing up by 4,3 lengths over course and distance. Tricia Dupont was done no favours by a slow pace over 2000m last time and can also be included in the exotics.

David Thiselton

Turffontein (inside) Saturday Oct 15 Race Previews by David Thiselton

R1

Preview: TURF CONQUEROR by Western Winter is bred for this trip and wouldn’t have to be champion to win this. He has a good draw so is the selection to win. SHARP LINK stayed on well over 1160m last time and the form has worked out well. His dam was an out and out sprinter but being by Dupont, who was a decent miler, he has a chance of staying the trip. HUHI improved second time out when setting the pace over 1450m but has a tricky draw over this step up in trip, which he is not certain to enjoy on pedigree. (David Thiselton 10-6-7)

R2

Preview: VISION OF DAHLIA has hard knocking form and is drawn in pole with Strydom up over a trip she should enjoy. It is called the Stryker Maiden Plate, so she would be a fitting winner, although a concern is she is returning from a three month layoff. The blinkers are off over this increased trip. STRUT YOUR STUFF strikes as a stayer but a concern is the breathing noise she made last time. If the latter is not an issue here she should go close. YOURS AND MINE is well drawn and could plug on into the places. (David Thiselton 6-7-4)

R3

Preview: BRITISH ROYALE is a progressive sort who has snuck into the handicap with the minimum weight and the pole position draw is ideal for his handy style. ISPHAN ran a decent race last time in a Pinnacle event over 1000m, considering he was way out at the weights, and he can go close here from a fair draw back in a handicap. TRIP TEASE has dropped to an attractive merit rating after two below par runs and it is his third run of the season, so he could be a factor despite a welter burden. (David Thiselton 9-7-1)

R4

Preview: BUSH PILOT went close after being backed on debut over 1400m and can follow up. CHARLESTON HERO ran a fair race from a tough draw on Grand Heritage day and can do well here from another unfavourable draw. PERSIAN APPROVAL is knocking on the door over this trip, but also has a tricky draw. (David Thiselton 5-6-7)

R5

Preview: NOOR is the best in at the weights and is interesting running fresh over this trip as she has sometimes over raced over further. SILVER CLASS has some class and is course and distance suited, but a wide draw is a concern. CRYSTAL GLAMOUR was undone by a wide draw over course and distance last time and can do better here with better luck in running. WATER LILY LAKE has shown glimpses of class and should be a factor in her first run for two-and-a-half months. LAST CHIRP had some decent two-year-old form and from a good draw could be a factor over a suitable course and distance despite this being her seasonal bow. (David Thiselton 5-2-6)

R6

Preview: BUCKLAND, who is 5,5kg better off than any other horse in this race, is well regarded and is drawn well over a suitable trip in his second run after gelding. PENULTIMATE is better than his last start and should go close if bouncing back to the form of his impressive debut win. DUKE NUKEM is coming into his own, so has a chance despite the tough draw, although the breathing noises he makes are a concern. (David Thiselton 1-8-5)

R7

Preview: FORTISSIMA is well regarded and likely just needed her last start, where the pace was too slow for her too. She is attractively merit rated and is the one to beat. INANINSTANT has some class and coming from the Tarry yard should be fit returning from a six month layoff. ANGELIC APPEAL is coming into her own and was only raised three points for a going away win over 2000m last time. GIRL ON THE RUN should have come on from her last run and is well drawn over a step up in trip she will enjoy. GAIN GROUND is improving but has a tough draw. BAJAN FANTASY is also on the up and is course and distance suited. (David Thiselton 3-1-5)

R8

Preview: TAMBALANG looks a fair sort and her opening handicapping mark of 78, earned through a win over course and distance, looks reasonable, although she has a tricky draw. TRICIA DUPONT has dropped back to her last winning mark and is drawn well over a course and distance she should enjoy provided she gets a stronger pace than she got in her last start over 2000m. COSTA DA SOL looks capable of earning off a three point lowered merit rating. KAHULA has not been disgraced in her last two against stronger and can earn. BELLE ROSE had decent two-year-old form and can’t be ignored in her seasonal reappearance over a suitable trip. BLUE LIGHT CONVOY is 0,5kg under sufferance but could earn. (David Thiselton 8-4-10)

R9

Preview: HAWAIIAN SUN is a solid sort who is course and distance suited and well drawn. ROWNAK is by Silvano out of a Galileo mare and turned it on well after racing green on debut to win over 1600m. He should stay on strongly again off a reasonable opening handicap mark, although from a wide draw this stoutly bred sort will likely have a lot to do. BOLD COAST was not at all disgraced last time out when running on well in a Graduation Plate field over 1450m which was stronger than this. This son of July winner Bold Silvano should enjoy the step up in trip. However, his maiden win over 1200m has not worked out well and there are some question marks. STREET FLYER ran a fair race on Grand Heritage day and is now off an attractive merit rating over a suitable course and distance and is well drawn with Lerena up. NAWRA is better than his last start and might appreciate the step down in trip. (David Thiselton 1-7-9)