Greyville (poly) Friday Oct 14 Race Previews by Andrew Harrison

1

Preview: Weak field but AFRICAN SUNBIRD is a smartly bred first timer and doesn’t have to be too good to win here. BABY IN BLACK has shown up well in recent starts over a touch further. She meets little of note here and should be thereabouts. NIGHT AT THE PROMS was backed in to even money favourite last start when tried in blinkers. Her two best efforts have been over course and distance. The blinkers come off and she can make amends. SWISS NOTE has been knocking at the door for some time now and is super fit. She does have a tricky draw to overcome. SHOW ME YOUR ROSIE raced green in a fair debut and is sure to come on with the experience. (Andrew Harrison: 8-2-7-3)

2

Preview: Another weak field. MASTER RUNNER was a distant fourth last start but the winner won by eight lengths. He should come on from that effort. ZINZARA has improved with a tongue-tie and was not far behind the promising Accidental Tourist last outing. She makes her poly debut. ROY’S MONEKY ran well below par at her last start. She had some useful form over further before that and at best will go close. MASTEROFMYDREAMS has improved in blinkers and the extra should suit. (Andrew Harrison: 1-11-12-2)

3

Preview: Wide open. MISS MINVER may just have needed her last outing when sent out favourite. Her two best efforts have been on the poly and she jumps from an inside gate. DANCE CITY QUEEN is down in class and tried further last time out. She has blinkers here and an ace pilot aboard. SOUL OF SPAIN was mush improved first up on the poly and although she has a tricky draw she must have a chance.  ICY SPIRIT showed up well first run out of the maidens and drops in class. She should have a chance in this line-up. (Andrew Harrison: 6-1-9-3).

4

Preview: NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND comes out of a smart formline. He takes on weaker here and a repeat of his latest effort should see him home.  ALDRIC has been in good form on the turf but does go well on the poly. He ran an excellent race at the Vaal last time out and rates a big chance on that showing.  KEPT SECRET has caught the eye at her last two and goes well over course and distance. WINTER DARLING seldom runs a bad race and is at home over course and distance. She should feature in the finish. JASON ARGO has a big weight but smart form over course and distance. (Andrew Harrison:  10-3-7-2).

5

Preview: AL CIBERANO hardly ever runs a bad race and only just failed when tried in blinkers last time out. Anton Marcus gets the ride. OUT MY WAY surprised last run but his two recent outings on the poly have been good. He can go close with this weight. FIRE THE ROCKET is over his best course and distance and found good market support at his last start. PANZA didn’t show in the soft ground at Scottsville but has consistent form before. He will be super fit. FLYING ROCK showed up well first run pout of the maidens but she does take on males. (Andrew Harrison: 4-11-7-8).

6

Preview: Wide open. MASTER OF MISCHIEF is long overdue and was narrowly beaten when taking on stronger at his last start. He also had the worst of the draw that day. He has a lot in his favour here. SOLDIER’S CODE needed his last run. He has useful poly form and with a run under his girth should feature. BIG SI had his consistency rewarded when a narrow winner last start. He has a light weight and can follow up. SELVAN’S JET has a tough draw but has been trying further and the drop in trip could suit. (Andrew Harrison: 2-3-7-8)

7

Preview: DESERT SUNSET has run two crackers on the poly and looks the horse to beat. KINGS LADY has consistent form over course and distance. She takes on males here with a big weight but should be right there. GREATFIVEEIGHT made a promising poly debut and can build on that run. ROY’S ROLLS ROYCE has shown up well in two starts over shorter. Delpech rides. Go close if he stays. (Andrew Harrison: 1-4-7-6)

8

Preview: ZILLA came from well back from a wide draw last time out. She has a handy weight and should be running at them late. MODERNISTA has been touched off at her last two on the poly. With a useful claimer aboard she can go one better. LA VIDA BANCO won well in the soft last time out and prior to that took on males. She has a fair weight but can follow up. MAYBE was a game winner of her last start and with a four-claimer up she must have a good chance on a repeat showing. (Andrew Harrison: 6-4-1-3).

9

Preview: WILD WICKET  made a very tardy start when favourite last time out. Extra will suit and he can make amends. MR O’NEILL has been disappointing after showing early promise. He tries blinkers and may be worth another chance. PRINCIPATE has come to hand of late. He was a close-up second to stable companion Forever last run. ROY’S PAST has come good on the poly and stays the trip. He should feature in the shake-up. AIR SALUTE will much prefer this trip and looks set to improve. (Andrew Harrison: 12-6-7-8)

Mac de Lago is back in training and is being aimed at the Gr1 Charity Mile to be run at Turffontein at the end of the month. Weiho Marwing said the Gr1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge winner had been given a month off on the farm after finishing third in the Vodacom Durban July where according to Marwing he had pulled up “with a bit of a joint.”

“He had a month of on Hassen’s (Adams) farm and he’s back in training at Turffontein,” said Marwing. But he won’t have a race before the Charity Mile. “There isn’t enough time to give him a race before the Mile so he will go straight into it.”

Two season’s back Marwing sent Wylie Hall into the Vodacom Durban July without a preparation race and the colt was arguably unlucky to be demoted to second in the boardroom.

Current plans are to miss the Gr1 Sansui Summer Cup and head to Cape Town for the Gr1 L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate and the Gr1 Sun Met which now boasts a stake of R5 million.

Gr1 Premier’s Champions Stakes winner Gunner makes his seasonal debut in the second of the KZN 3YO Series races over 1400m at Scottsville on Sunday. Paul Gadsby is aiming him at the $500 000 CTS Mile to be run at Kenilworth in January.

“He’s got to start somewhere and I don’t want to send him down to Cape Town a fat little butterball. I’m just hoping for a good race on Sunday,” he said yesterday.

After this race he will be sent to Cape Town where he will be under the care of Daryl Hodgson.

Sunday’s series race has attracted a smart field that contains a number of unknowns outside of Gunner and Palladium who are both relatively exposed. Scent Of The Tiger, Roy’s Magic, Marshall That, Great Value and Sarah’s Secret are recent maiden winners but all on the up and get a hefty 6kg from Gunner and 2kg from Palladium which should make for an interesting contest.

Andrew Harrison

Woodhill Racing Estate-based Glen Kotzen expects this filly, Party Crasher, to go close in a Novice Plate over 1200m at Durbanville on Saturday.

This classy Philanthropist filly is the latest racing progeny of the outstanding mare First Arrival. Her full-brother is lot 95 on the CTS Ready To Run Sale, which takes place at Durbanville on Saturday evening.

Party Crasher is one of Kotzen’s hopefuls for the Cape Summer Of Champions Season. He said, “She is a proper filly. We would have preferred it to be over 1400m on Saturday, but if she wins she will go for the Choice Carriers.”

Party Crasher was green on debut over the Durbanville 1200m. She ran around in the straight after turning for home near the back and clearly did not know what it was all about. Greg Cheyne eventually switched her outward well away from the pack. When he asked the question she displayed an instant turn of foot and cantered past the leaders in nonchalant style. She won going away by 1,25 lengths with ears pricked. Her odds of 6/1 were generous in retrospect. It was not the strongest of fields, but there is clearly a lot more to come.

Kotzen was the underbidder for the Hallmark Thoroughbreds-bred Party Crasher at the National Yearling Sales last year. She went for R650,000, snapped up by the outstanding breeders, Varsfontein Stud, who obviously recognised her ready-made paddock value. Party Crasher is a half-sister to the like of Gr 1 winners Let’s Rock’n Roll, In The Fast Lane and Rock The Country, and to Gr 2 winner Light The Lights.

Kotzen asked the Kalmansons of Varsfontein if he could train her. As trainer of Light The Lights, he was the natural choice. Light The Lights, by Western Winter, was a late maturing sort and also needed the gelding which was only done after he had turned four-years of age. He finally fulfilled his potential when sauntering home in the Gr 2 Peninsula Handicap over 1800m at Kenilworth on L’Ormarin’s Queen’s Plate day this year. He followed that with an excellent 4,8 length fourth in this year’s J&B Met, despite being the joint worst weighted horse in the field on official merit ratings.

The quality of that performance was stamped in no uncertain terms when he was bought into the Mike de Kock yard and put on the next overseas float. He is currently being prepared out of Abington Place in Newmarket for next year’s Dubai Carnival. Light The Lights’ magnificent turn of foot and sustained finish had been seen early in his career, particularly in a Listed race at Fairview, which he won comfortably. His coltish issues plagued the rest of his three-year-old career, although he did manage a decent 2,5 length third to The Conglomerate in the Gr 2 KRA Guineas at Greyville last year.

Party Crasher looks a similar type. The Gr 2 Choice Carriers Championships for three-year-old fillies takes place on October 29 over 1400m on the Kenilworth winter course and it will be no surprise to see her being a leading contender.

Another promising filly in the Kotzen yard is the four-year-old Silvano filly Silvan Star. She was eye-catching as a three-year-old, but a bad draw on Met day followed by travel sickness and “foot abscess after foot abscess” in KZN saw her season severely curtailed. However, she showed her class in her seasonal reappearance on September 24 when cruising to a 2,25 length win over 1600m at Durbanville in a Novice Plate. Unfortunately, her merit rating of only 83 will make it difficult for her to get into the feature races, but she is certainly one to follow in handicaps.

Kotzen has high hopes for the four-year-old Var filly Our Destiny. She finished second at odds of 100/1 in last season’s Gr 1 WSB Cape Fillies Guineas. However, he is going to keep her to sprints this season. There are certainly a lot of opportunities for sprinting fillies during the Cape Summer.

He also rates the Trippi colt Gold Standard, whose grand dam is the great Olympic Duel. In his third start on October 5, he jumped from a wide draw over 1600m at Durbanville in a Maiden Plate and ran on strongly to win by 3,25 lengths.

Kotzen said, “Everybody was raving about Craven (who won by two lengths over the same course and distance in the next race), but Gold Standard’s time was better and he won by further.” Kotzen concluded about Gold Standard, “He is more of a Derby horse.”

David Thiselton

The debate on whether trainers are or are not obliged to give out information on their first-timers in a race has become a little touchy and when one looks at it in an unbiased way as someone who never backs these young horses, there are valid points made for either side.

To put my point in clear perspective, I have never backed a first-timer and I have never, in more than 35 years as a racing journalist, asked a trainer about any of his or her runners. I have always operated on my own form study assessment. There was one occasion when I stupidly changed my Pick 6 perm to bank a horse which, according to another journalist who “got it from the horse’s mouth” – the trainer – that it was impossible to lose. It was beaten by one of the horses I had taken out of my perm.

Trainer Sean Tarry expressed his views on the matter in a lengthy article in The Racegoer yesterday and made some valid points. However, while for a number of reasons I do not see why trainers should not comment on their runners, I would also like to caution punters not to accept those comments as gospel as there are too many factors that could play into the situation.

There has been the long-standing argument that owners spend a lot of money in buying the horses and covering the training fees and they should therefore have “first bite at the cherry” to help recover some of those costs. That is a valid point and I don’t see why they should not have that chance.

The simple fact is that the racing public will never have a chance of getting the best price even if trainers come out and say they think their runner will win. The “stable” will already have secured that and once a stable bet on a runner is placed with the bookmakers the word spreads and the official betting will show it both with the bookies and on the tote.

But, for the average punter it is not about getting the best price, it is a question of backing the winner at whatever price. Sure, they would like to get 10-1 instead of 18-10 but it is better to take the 18-10 instead of backing the 10-1 shot that loses.

Racing is not an absolute science and if one goes back over the years and sees the number of “good things” that have been beaten then one realizes that there is a lot more to racing than the opinion of the trainer. Even in races where collateral form is available, trainers have not always got it right.

As far as first-timers are concerned, I believe trainers would not be doing themselves or their patrons down by making a fair comment on their runners – something like “he’s a nice horse and is fit and working well. He is bred to go further but has shown good pace. There is a lot of talk about so-and-so’s runner but I believe my horse could run into the money.”

It is common knowledge that if a stable backs a first-timer to win they have already tried the horse against a proven horse and know that on the ability it has shown it should win its first race. They would have already secured their price before as most stables have their preferred bookie that would more than likely give them the stretched odds to obtain the information and then lay off the bet with other bookies. The word then travels like wildfire which shows when a first-timer is priced up at the first call at short odds.

The dangers of backing first-timers even if trainers comment on them are plenty and include things like the excitement and nervousness of the occasion which could see them getting worked up and sweating up or giving problems at the starting stalls or even not getting away on terms. They may not have the confidence in a bunched field or they could be too eager and do too much early.

My advice would be to watch the betting bearing in mind the comments of the trainers, see how they move to the start then pick a couple and back them for a place or as a swinger. You can’t get hurt and success will boost your confidence in your ability to pick them on their appearance, breeding, the betting and the comments of the trainers.

So Tarry is very right about the fact that punters should involve themselves fully in the game. Get the form books and study them closely and even go to the extent of studying pedigrees. It is a fascinating sport and there is nothing more rewarding than picking a winner that beats the favourite based purely on your own study and observation.

Yes, and go to the course. Study the animal in the flesh and learn to note what a fit horse looks like and how it moves as well as its temperament. These are beautiful creatures and in some ways they could tell you more than what the trainer is prepared to.

I seldom back a horse on the nose but I remember a case at Scottsville when I saw a filly in the ring. She had disappointed in another race and was not the favourite on the day in question.  But when I saw her and remembered how she had looked previously, I went straight to the tote and had the biggest win bet I have ever had on her. She won with ease.

To get back to the subject, transparency in racing is good and in this day where one can bet in a variety of ways it is not easy for a trainer to “hide” a good horse. One cannot deny that the information can leak through various channels including stable staff, jockeys and spotters.

In the end, all the punters want is a fair run for their money – and they are entitled to it.

Richard McMillan

New Predator is on the prowl for another graded-race win in the R1-million Peermont Emperors Palace Charity Mile on Saturday 5 November.

Nominations for the Charity Mile only close on Monday, but Johan Janse van Vuuren has already penciled in three horses he would like to run in the Grade 2 race and New Predator is his “main contender” at this stage, with inaugural Grand Heritage hero Irish Pride and classy filly Negroamaro in supporting roles.

“I’m hoping all three get good draws,” the Vaal-based trainer said, hinting that their participation might hinge on the ballot for barrier positions.

New Predator, who won a Maiden Plate on Charity Mile Day last year, certainly has the form to be a big runner in the 1600m race. He went on to finish a close second to Noah From Goa in the Grade 2 Dingaans on Summer Cup Day, third when not well ridden in the Grade 1 Horse Chestnut Stakes and then won the Grade 2 Drill Hall Stakes at Greyville in May.

New Predator’s run in the Daily News 2000 can easily be explained by his trainer, stating bluntly that his programme will not include the SANSUI Summer Cup or the Sun Met because “I don’t think he stays 2000m”.

His final run as a three-year-old was in the Gold Challenge in June and New Predator finished fourth behind Mac De Lago. He had his first run since then in the Grade 2 Joburg Spring Challenge over 1450m on the Turffontein Inside track last Saturday and finished strongly for third behind Kangaroo Jack.

New Predator

“I’m very happy with that run,” confirmed Janse van Vuuren. “He needed it slightly and it was slow run, which played into Kangaroo Jack’s hands. New Predator enjoys the Standside ‘mile’. He’s run three very good races there and must be a contender in the Charity Mile.”

After that, said the trainer, his plans for New Predator included a short trip to Cape Town for a Listed race in December and the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate.

Five-time winner Irish Pride, he said, “won a good race in the Grand Heritage, but on the face of it, that was only a MR 90 Handicap and the Charity Mile is not the same. He’ll enjoy the 100m extra but will have a lot more to do.”

Negroamaro, who has turned into something of a bridesmaid since winning the Grade 3 Fillies Mile on Summer Cup Day last year, will have a dual entry, in the Charity Mile and the 1800m Yellowwood Handicap (Grade 3) on the same day. Her participation in the Charity Mile is contingent on how well she fares in a Conditions Plate on Saturday next week. “We’ll see how she takes that run and how well she draws before making any decisions,” said Janse van Vuuren.

The Charity Mile is the most special race on the South African calendar because 16 charities take home a collective R1 million at the end of the meeting. Each horse in the Charity Mile is publically represented by a celebrity and runs for a nominated charity. The finishing positions determining how much each charity receives from R150,000 for first to R50,000 for the charities represented by the horses who finish further back than fourth.

TABnews