Alistair Cohen

Before seasonal rain arrives in Cape Town due in the coming weeks, horses with sheer speed will hope to take advantage of fast track conditions. Candy Town is one of the quickest around. She has not been easy to keep racing regularly but she seems to be into the swing of things. These factors could take her to victory in race 6 over 1000m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Wednesday.

She once topped some of the best around. In January 2025, she turned over subsequent Grade 1 placed and Grade 2 winner Questioning over this track and trip. She broke them coming out of the stalls with her natural pace and the light weight she had to carry helped her propel across the line. When she is in the mood, she can run nearly anything off their feet.

She did not race for three months between December and March but she returned to the course with a pleasing 0,75-length second behind Sardinia Bay over 1000m at Hollywoodbets Durbanville. She drifted in the market giving signs that she was expected to need the run. There was layers of speed in that race and her sharpness might have been tested. She still came through that effort without losing any marks and she should be able to build on that effort under Richard Fourie for Andre Nel. It is a good sign that she races a few weeks later considering her usual sequence of usually months between outings.

Elusive Winter is such a good-doer and he too had tons of speed. His outside gate of No 8 is a slight worry because he might have to track across and once he does, Candy Town could get a useful early advantage. Trainer Michelle Rix has shrewdly used Sifiso Bungane on this horse to lighten the load but senior jockey, Corne Orffer takes over. He is stable rider for the Rix yard. The weights in the race behind Sardinia Bay do not read ideally being 4kg worse off for being nearly a length behind Candy Town. Whenever Elusive Winter runs over 1000m at this course, he is given close attention.

North Point has been slightly below his best lately but he could come bouncing back at any stage simply because he is a good sort. He ran behind Candy Town at Hollywoodbets Durbanville and they meet on identical terms. One could argue that North Point was less assured at Hollywoodbets Durbanville than he is down the straight. He has also had a run in between which was not his best in the Easter Sprint when he finished two lengths behind Dance Variety. He cannot be taken lightly.

Andrew Fortune is back in the saddle with two rides for Justin Snaith. Both of them must have serious winning chances. From The Island runs in race 3 over 1400m. The weights suggest that he has 3kg against him for beating Hero’s Journey by a short head over this trip at Hollywoodbets Durbanville last month. They should fight this out unless a Vaughan Marshall-trained debutant is of fair quality. He trains Hero’s Journey so check the market for clues.

Fortune gets aboard Future Free in race 8 over 1600m. He has to get the better of Show Off who has been terribly unlucky in his last few runs. Show Off could simply be best suited to this trip while Future Free could crave slightly further. It is an intriguing contest because both look capable of stepping up a division in the coming months. Show Off has the services of Richard Fourie for James Crawford. His last run came behind Prairie Dawn who is upwardly mobile. He finished a neck behind over this trip at Hollywoodbets Durbanville. Prairie Dawn gives the impression that he is narrowly ahead of Future Free over this trip. Anything further, Future Free could have his measure.

Magma Flow easily has the best form on offer in race 1 over 1000. Keagan de Melo takes the ride. In four starts to date, he has run in two feature races. Although not a threat to the judge, he still ran fairly. Unless a first timer is quite good, Magma Flow should exit the maiden ranks.

Peach Cobbler is not a confident choice in race 2 over 1200m. Despite good improvement from her debut to her second start and coming from a frighteningly in-form yard of Candice Bass, her last run behind Preacher Man might not be the most solid piece of form to follow. She was beaten into third by 4,5 lengths over 1000m at Hollywoodbets Durbanville. There is simply little else to be confident with on paper. It will not take much for a first timer to do the business so another market check is advised.

Theleia stands out as the best bet on the card in race 4 over 1400m. She was tipped out so narrowly in her last run by Little Nimbus over this trip at Hollywoodbets Durbanville when she tried to steal the race. She easily has the best form on offer. Craig Zackey is serving a weeks’ suspension so Keagan de Melo takes the ride for Andre Nel. If she fails to win this, she might battle to get a deserved win.

If From The Island succeeds in race 3, that will enhance the claims for Le Concierge in race 5 over 1200m. He finished 4,55 lengths behind when they met last month over 1400m. Le Concierge seems to be back to a more suitable situation in a sprint with his speedy pedigree. Again, the opposition seems to be taking its time to find a rhythm and consistency. There is always a disclaimer with two-year-olds facing older opponents but he looks set for a big effort.

Candice Bass has a good hand in race 7 over 1400m and it could be a tip from the saddle that Aldo Domeyer has opted for South Of France who has an obvious chance as opposed to the upwardly mobile Peaches And Cream. Both carry heavy weights so that would not be a reason. South Of France has finished runner-up in her last two runs behind the useful Star World and the solid Gin Palace.

Masterofthemoon could be an appropriate winner of race 9 over 2000m if he sees out this extra distance. He hit the line with plenty in hand last time over 1600m at Hollywoodbets Durbanville when he had his second run after a 10-month rest. If he is not stretched or this run comes too soon, he should triumph under Fourie for Crawford.

RACE 1

More than half the field are first timers in the opener, keep a close eye on the market and the parade ring. Of those with experience, 6 MAGMA FLOW brings the strongest form into the race, he has run some fair races behind decent types, if the first timers don’t attract strong support, he should take plenty of beating. 4 NAVASNINE has been rested and gelded, he will improve tons going into his second run on Wednesday. (Brandon Bailey: 6 – 4 – 7 – 5)

RACE 2

3 PEACH COBBLER improved nicely to run a good race behind her stable companion on the 25th of March, she will love the step up in trip to 1200m on Wednesday, if she makes the necessary improvement, she will be tough to beat in this field. The majority of the raced runners don’t bring strong form into the race, watch the first timers closely, they should be competitive. (Brandon Bailey: 3 – 7 – 8 – 1)

RACE 3

4 HERO’S JOURNEY must have a big winning chance in this field, he really got going late last time behind From The Island on the 21st of March, he is better off at the weights, and he has a good draw on Wednesday, he will take lots of beating. 6 FROM THE ISLAND won a gutsy race beating Hero’s Journey at Hollywoodbets Durbanville last month, his form is good, even though he carries top weight in this race, he will be competitive, include him into all bets. Top trainer Vaughan Marshall has a strong hand in this race, watch the first timers closely, both colts are well-bred. (Brandon Bailey: 4 – 6 – 1 – 2)

RACE 4

6 THELEIA looks the right horse in this race, she was just touched off late by Little Nimbus at Hollywoodbets Durbanville on the 25th of March, she is super consistent, on her current form, she is easily one of the better bets on the card. 1 RARE EARTH never runs a bad race, she finished just over five lengths behind Theleia last time, there should be no excuses for this filly on Wednesday from a good draw, she will run a big race. 5 PACIFIC WATERS ran a fair race behind Lady Orbit on the 21st of March, her chances will be helped with the 4kgs coming off her back from the apprentice claim, she has a good place chance in this field. 2 LIEFLING needed her last run over 1200m, she can certainly improve now that she steps up in trip to 1400m, watch her closely. (Brandon Bailey: 6 – 1 – 5 – 2)

RACE 5

2 THE BIG BANG flew home late behind Volegov on the 30th of March, he has improved tremendously in his last two runs, he will be just off the speed early, and he will be running on strongly late, include him into all bets. 1 PROTECTOR OF PEACE could be the value play in this race, ignore his last run over 1600m, the blinkers have been fitted on Wednesday, and he drops in trip to 1200m, on his best form, he can win a race like this. 7 HILTON HEADS has been rested for 63 days, he has run two great races in succession, the tongue tie stays on, top jockey Richard Fourie has been booked to ride this gelding, he will go close to winning. 3 PRITTI UNITED has been rested for 147 days, he found betting support in the market when last seen on the 19th of November 2025, he is a lovely horse with a great action, if he doesn’t need the run back from a small break, he will be competitive. (Brandon Bailey: 2 – 1 – 7 – 3)

RACE 6

5 NORTH POINT is much better than his last start behind Dance Variety in the Easter Sprint on the 1st of April, in hope that he doesn’t go to the front in this race, he should bounce back to his best form, he has lots of ability. 8 ELUSIVE WINTER ran a great race behind Sardinia Bay at Hollywoodbets Durbanville on the 4th of March, he is very fast, he loves this track and trip, he will run a big race on Wednesday. 6 CANDY TOWN finished second in the same race as Elusive Winter last time, she will try and lead them from start to finish, if she gets away from the field at the right time, she will be hard to beat. 4 FLYING FINLEY won a good race on the 30th of March, he was given three points for that gutsy win, he should be there amongst the places again. (Brandon Bailey: 5 – 8 – 6 – 4)

RACE 7

2 SOUTH OF FRANCE will take lots of beating here, she ran on strongly late for second behind Star World on the 4th of March, the step up in trip to 1400m will help this filly on Wednesday, she will be tough to beat from a neat draw. 4 MISS ATTITUDE quickened up smartly to win a good race on the 21st of March, she will be just off the speed early, and she will be low flying late, watch her closely straight out of the maiden ranks. 3 MONEY EXTRACTOR stayed on well for third behind Given To Fly on the 25th of March, her chances must be respected on her current form. 8 RAFFISH TREND finished just over one length behind True Horizon last time, she will love the step up in trip, if she gets some luck in running from a tricky draw, she will make things interesting late. (Brandon Bailey: 2 – 4 – 3 – 8)

RACE 8

6 SHOW OFF finished like a train late behind Prairie Dawn on the 25th of March, he should be cherry ripe for this Class 4 event on Wednesday, he has a big winning chance on his current form. 1 FUTURE FREE just needed his last run when finishing second behind Boogiefied on the 18th of March, he should get the perfect run from a good draw, the yard thinks highly of this gelding, there is no doubt that he has a winning chance in this field. 4 SIGNOR DANTE stayed on well for third in the same race as Show Off at Hollywoodbets Durbanville last month, he will be right there in the finish from a good draw, include him into all bets. 2 MARCUS AURELIUS should enjoy the step up in trip to 1600m, the blinkers have been fitted to this gelding, he will be doing some good work late. (Brandon Bailey: 6 – 1 – 4 – 2)

RACE 9

10 MASTERONTHEMOON looks to be the best bet on the card, he ran a great race for third behind Trip To Camelot on the 21st of March, he will love the step up in trip to 2000m on Wednesday, top jockey Richard Fourie has been booked to ride this gelding, he will be hard to beat. 9 FROM THE GET GO has run some fair races of late, the blinkers stay on, and he steps up in trip, if he gets some luck in running from a tricky draw, he could make his stable companion work for victory. 8 PHANTOM MAN disappointed terribly behind Tunguska on the 28th of February, he is much better than that performance, this looks to be the right race for him to bounce back to his best form, watch him closely at a fair price. 5 O’FELLOW might be able to sneak into the Quartet with no weight on his back. (Brandon Bailey: 10 – 9 – 8 – 5)

Please Note; South African Quartet Pools with fractional betting offered at Newmarket and Southwell (UK) – 15 April 2026

Please Note: Following the completion of gallops, a decision has been made to postpone today’s Vaal meeting (14 April 2026) to Tuesday, 21 April 2026.

This decision was taken due to both tracks being inconsistent and unsafe, coupled with further rainfall predicted throughout the day.

David Thiselton

The professional handicappers of South Africa have sent out a press release urging stake holders who are attending the South African Trainers Association (SANTA) handicapping workshop on Wednesday, April 15, at the TBA Sales Complex at Gosforth Park, to only consider those decisions made at the workshop that are guided by data and evidence rather than by anecdotal or observational claims.

The handicappers themselves will abstain from the Workshop “for reasons that include the avoidance of becoming persuasive to the attendees, given that all evidence suggests that the current system and its application is statistically functioning as intended and designed.”

However, they sent out the press release to ensure “that all stakeholders have access to current information ahead of policy discussions at the forthcoming SANTA held Workshop.”

It is certainly an understandable lament in South African racing that superior horses find it more difficult to rattle off a number of wins at the beginning of their careers, as they were reportedly able to do under the old Race Figure system, before being weighted according to their true ability.

However, the NHA press release pointed out the dangers of embracing a system that favours superior horses and it also pointed to the current statistics which show that three-year-olds are not at all unduly punished compared to other age groups.

Whilst, purists of any sport like to watch the best against the best, the handicappers have to operate in a way that best sustains the entire racing population as well as the players associated with it.

In the press release they referred to the Handicappers’ mandate which is “to, by handicapping, distribute the stakes pot as equitably as possible.”

They said making changes to aid better horses carried the risk of favouring big yards and effecting field sizes.

They pointed to the experiment of the “Assessment Plate” and put it under the headline of “the risk of uninformed decisions”.

A conclusion on a study of overall racing stats and a study of Assessment Plate stats was that Assessment Plates contained smaller fields and favoured superior horses and they were thus dominated by bigger yards.

The late guru analyst Jay August commented, “If the Handicapper’s assessment of the highly rated horse ex their maiden win was wrong (too high), then the stats should show that. They do not, which leads me to believe that Assessment Plates have little to do with assessment but more to do with helping superior animals to win a few races before their ability is penalised too much.’’

Moving on, three-year-olds have been shown to actually have a higher strike rate in handicap races than any other age group, which falsifies the claim they are punished unduly.

In the current season three-years have had 1448 runs and a strike rate of 13%, four-year-olds have had 2431 runs and a strike rate of 11%, five-year-olds have had 1876 runs and a strike rate of 10% and six-year-olds and older 1,398 runs and a strike rate of 7%.

Statistics have also shown that the top five yards have had 973 runs in handicaps and a strike rate of 13.6%, while they have had 1,637 runs in non-handicaps and a strike rate of 15.3%.

The handicappers are thus concerned that any further adjustment to the existing handicapping system would disproportionately benefit trainers with access to higher-quality horses. Given the limited number of handicap races available, such changes could severely disadvantage trainers outside the top ten on the trainers’ log, creating an uneven playing field and undermining competitive balance.

The Handicapping Team believes that the current system is functioning exactly as designed and the data contained the following key indicators:

Participation: Higher acceptance rates in Handicaps and Merit Rating based races.

Elimination Data: High demand for entry in premier events such as the Hollywoodbets Durban July, Golden Horse Casino Sprint, Betway Summer Cup and the Charity Mile confirm the system’s integrity at the pattern level.

Program Stability: Programmers frequently rely on Handicap formats to ensure adequate field sizes.

Open Betting Market: These races consistently produce closer finishes and a more robust betting market, which ultimately extends the racing careers of the horse population.

Competitive Density: Data indicates that the average beaten finisher in a Handicap is 3.5 lengths behind the winner, compared to 4.8 lengths in non-handicap races. This suggests the system is achieving its primary goal of narrowing the gap between competitors.

Systemic Balance: The National Merit Ratings Update continues to ensure a balanced distribution of ratings across all age groups, preventing structural bias within the population – the handicappers believed any skewing of the current table which shows 45% of horses to be rated 74 and higher (as compared to 2019 when only 27% were 74 and higher) would result in programming difficulties.

Merit Rating Appeals: Since the cancellation of the previous guidelines in 2019, Handicappers have assessed approximately 188,500 performances. Remarkably, during this entire review period, only 14 appeals were lodged of which 11 were dismissed.

They added this was despite operating under some constraints, which included:

The program is currently already skewed towards higher rated horses as there has been a reduction in true handicaps and an increase in merit-rated band races (Pinnacles, A, B, C and D Stakes Races, Middle Stakes Races). These races are not true handicaps and favour horses at the top of each rating band. This creates a structural bias with many horses entering races where they have little chance of success. The handicapper then face a dilemma, with an example being a horse that does not earn because it was at the bottom of a merit rating band and ran accordingly, but does not get dropped in the merit ratings, because at the weights it still did actually run to its rating. Earners, on the other hand, might be at the top of the bands but are not unduly punished because they were firstly at a weight advantage and, furthermore, merit rated restrictions are placed on these races anyway. This results in a cycle where winning horses continue to win, while others are relegated to “field fillers.”

They pointed out that owners and trainers often equate competitiveness with victory, but as there are more horses than handicap races, the handicappers are judged against an unrealistic benchmark i.e. in every season there will be many horses (1365 to be exact for the current season if only handicap races are considered) who will have the same number of career wins that they began the season with, no matter which handicap system was adopted.

In summary the handicappers overall message was that any changes made should be accompanied by a factual analysis that supports it being workable considering the horse population and the nature of South African racing in which turnover and owner participation are important considerations.

The press release can be read on the nha.co.za website under Press Releases.