Andrew Harrison

Championship leader Justin Snaith can strike first run out of the box when he starts his Champions Season raid with Roland Garros in the March Stakes that heads the card at Hollywoodbets Scottsville today.

He boasts smart Cape form but does shoulder top weight against some useful opposition. Just how he shapes should give Snaith an early indication of what his three-year-olds are  up against this winter. Sean Veale is Hollywood Racing preferred rider but although his choice Gotta Go Eddie has hardly been out of the money stable companion I’m A Fireball could prove the stable pick if one ignores his run behind Splittheeights in the Gauteng Guines where he had to contend with a wide gate. Kanaal Skater was disappointing on the poly last time but is smart on his day and will have a good chance on his best showing.

In the first, opening leg of the Bi-Pot, Paul Lafferty was confident that Mekong would put up a forward showing but she raced green in a smart debut. She is sure to come on with the experience. So to Garth Puller’s fill Anushka who started at long odds on debut but showed up well and only run out of it late. The more exposed Japura has consistent form over course and distance and will be one of the fancied runners. There are a number of debutants with smart pedigrees so the betting could be a valuable guide.

In the first leg of the PA, Durban Diamond won well on debut for Dennis Bosch and runner-up Japura had solid form prior to that. She should come on with the experience and can follow up. Miller has his usual contingent of smart runners best of which may be the filly Global Trend with stable rider Tristan Godden aboard. She won well on debut in good time and should run a big race. Stable companion Ode To The Sea improved with each outing to win last time out and a 1.5kg allowance will add to his cause.

Psyche was strongly fancied to shed her maiden last run after two smart efforts. She was narrowly beaten last outing on this course but looks progressive and should have a big say in the first leg of the Pick 6. Skyline Bell disappointed first up on the poly last start when starting favourite. The switch to turf could bring out the best while Skipper O’Malley has been knocking at the door at recent starts in Open Maidens. She must have a strong chance in this line-up. Crimson Typhoon steps up in trip with the blinkers staying on. She could be the upset package.

The fifth is an oOpen handicap but JP’S Palace is never far back and was narrowly beaten in the Fever Tree Stakes over course and distance last time out. He comes from the in-form yard of Darryl Moore  with the best of the draw and a 1.5kg allowance. Tyrconnell was a neck behind JP’s Palace in the Fever Tree and they meet on the same terms but are drawn on opposite sides of the barrier which could be the deciding factor between the two. Queue Wing has been in good form in blinkers and has a handy weight helped by a 1.5kg claimer and he will be dangerous. Mister Nibbles has shown steady recent improvement and although he is up in class he takes the corresponding trop in weight along with a 2.5kg claimer.

Fortress Of Fire made an eye-catching debut for Michael Roberts last season but didn’t build on that effort as expected. He now appears to have got his ‘mojo’ back after that spell in the doldrums winning his last two. He is progressive and although he takes on stronger in the March Stakes that heads the card at Hollywoodbets Scottsville on Sunday he does look capable of making it three on the bounce.

It will not be easy. Vihaan’s Web has been in good form on this course at his last two and gets the benefit of a 2.5kg claimer aboard. Gareth van Zyl’s runner may prefer it a touch shorter which could give Fortress Of Fire a small edge. Mike Miller has a ton of talent in his yard and the smart gelding Licence To Thrill is over his favourite course and distance. He was close-up behind the smart and progressive Wild Justice last time out and should be right there again. The Mike and Mathew de Kock-trained Cymric has been a major disappointment of late but back over a sprint on a course where he has won before he could be the surprise package.

The sixth is a competitive handicap but Littleblacknumber  has been threatening for some time now. She is better than her last run and the step up in trip could suit. Ethereal View is struggling for her next win but has been coming down in the ratings and may now be off a more competitive mark. Greenlight Queen has been showing consistent form on the poly but the step up in trip on the turf could be what she is looking for.

The last is another open handicap where Queen Braganza found it tough going after her second win but was not far back over course and distance when facing stronger last time out. She gets the benefit of a 4kg claimer and can feature. Dawn Surprise is in cracking form but got an eight-point raise in the handicap for her last win. Although she still has the benefit of a 4kg claimer, she does step up in class. Sugarbush returns from a long break and makes her local debut but her Cape form was useful and it could pay to follow the money on this one.

RACE 1

3 MEKONG   6 ANUSHKA   9 JAPURA   8 FLOWER TRYST

Summary: MEKONG (3) raced green in a smart debut. She is sure to come on with the experience. ANUSHKA (6) started at long odds on debut but showed up well and only run out of it late. JAPURA (9) has consistent form over course and distance and will be one of the fancied runners. There are a number of debutants with smart pedigrees so the betting could be a valuable guide. (Andrew Harrison: 3-6-9-8).

RACE 2

3 DURBAN DIAMOND   2 GLOBAL TREND   1 ODE TO THE SEA   5 SILENT WORLD

Summary: DURBAN DIAMOND (3) won well on debut and runner-up Japura had solid form prior to that. She should come on with the experience and can follow up. Mike Miller has his usual contingent of smart runners best of which may be the filly GLOBAL TREND (2) with stable rider Tristan Godden aboard. She won well on debut in good time and should run a big race. Stable companion ODE TO THE SEA (1) improved with each outing to win last time out and a 1.5kg allowance will add to his cause. (Andrew Harrison: 3-2-1-5).

RACE 3

4 PSYCHE   8 SKYLINE BELL   1 SKIPPER O’MALLEY   5 CRIMSON TYPHOON

Summary: PSYCHE (4) has put in three smart efforts to date and was narrowly beaten last outing on this course. She looks progressive and should have a big say. SKYLINE BELL (8) disappointed first up on the poly last start when starting favourite. The switch to turf could bring out the best. SKIPPER O’MALLEY (1) has been knocking at the door at recent starts in Open Maidens. She must have a strong chance in this line-up. CRIMSON TYPHOON (5) steps up in trip with the blinkers staying on. She could be the surprise package. (Andrew Harrison: 4-8-1-5).

RACE 4

1 JP’S PALACE   12 TYRCONNELL   2 QUEUE WING   5 MISTER NIBBLES

Summary: Open handicap. JP’S PALACE (1) is never far back. He was narrowly beaten in the Fever Tree Stakes over course and distance last time out. He comes from an in form stable with the best of the draw and a 1.5kg allowance. TYRCONNELL (12) was a neck behind JP’s Palace in the Fever Tree. They meet on the same terms but are drawn opposite sides of the barrier which could be the decided between the two. QUEUE WING (2) has been in good form in blinkers. He has a handy weight helped by a 1.5kg claimer and he will be dangerous. MISTER NIBBLES (5) has shown steady recent improvement. He is up in class but takes the corresponding trop in weight along with a 2.5kg claimer.  (Andrew Harrison: 1-12-2-5).

RACE 5

5 ROLAND GARROS   1 I’M A FIREBALL   4 GOTTA GO EDDIE   2 KANAAL SKATER

Summary: Justin Snaith can strike first run out of the box as he starts his Champions Season raid with ROLAND GARROS (5). He boasts smart Cape form but does shoulder top weight against some useful opposition. Just how he shapes should give Snaith an early indication of what his three-year-olds are  up against this winter. Sean Veale is Hollywood Racing preferred rider but although GOTTA GO EDDIE (4) has hardly been out of the money stable companion I’M A FIREBALL (1) could prove the stable pick if one ignores his run behind Splittheeights in the Gauteng Guines where he had to contend with a wide gate. KANAAL SKATER (2) was disappointing on the poly last time put but is smart on his day and will have a good chance on his best showing. (Andrew Harrison: 5-1-4-2).

RACE 6

5 LITTLEBLACKGEM   4 ETHEREAL VIEW   3 GREENLIGHT QUEEN   7 FLYING REIGN STORM

Summary: Competitive handicap. LITTLEBLACKGEM (5) has been threatening for some time now. She is better than her last run and the step up in trip could suit. ETHEREAL VIEW (4) is struggling for her next win but has been coming down in the ratings and may now be off a more competitive mark. GREENLIGHT QUEEN (3) has been showing consistent form on the poly but the step up in trip on the turf could be what she is looking for. FLYING REIGN STORM (7) has been in good form of late and has won over course and distance. (Andrew Harrison: 5-4-3-7).

RACE 7

7 FORTRESS OF FIRE   6 VIHAAN’S WEB   1 LICENCE TO THRILL   5 CYMRIC

Summary: FORTRESS OF FIRE (7) has got his ‘mojo’ back after a spell in the doldrums winning his last two. He is progressive and although he takes on stronger this time around he does look capable. VIHAAN’S WEB (6) has been in good form on this course at his last two and gets the benefit of a 2.5kg claimer aboard. He may prefer it a touch shorter. LICENCE TO THRILL (1) is over his best course and distance. He was close-up behind the smart Wild Justice last time out and should be right there again. CYMRIC (5) has been a major disappointment of late but back over a sprint he could find his best form. (Andrew Harrison: 7-6-1-5).

RACE 8

6 SARAGOSSA CAT   1 QUEEN BRANZA   5 DAWN SURPRISE   9 SUGAR BUSH

Summary: Open handicap. SARAGOSSA CAT (6) has her first outing for Tinnie Prinsloo . She has smart Highveld form and rates a strong chance. QUEEN BRAGANZA (1) found it tough going after her second win but was not far back over course and distance when facing stronger last time out. She gets the benefit of a 4kg claimer and can feature. DAWN SURPRISE (5) is in cracking form but got an eight-point raise in the handicap for her last win. Although she still has the benefit of a 4kg claimer aboard, she does step up in class. SUGARBUSH (9) returns from a long break and makes her local debut. He Cape form was useful and it could pay to follow the money on this one. (Andrew Harrison: 6-1-5-9).

Please Note: South African Quartet Pools with fractional betting offered at Lingfield and Southwell (UK) – 28 February 2026

Soccer4 Sunday 1 March 2026. ADD-IN R25 000. Estimated Pool: R 100 000. Pool Closes at 16h00. Sport 18 Pool 2.

David Thiselton

 

The Hollywoodbets Durban July conditions have been finalised and the final field panellists might be in for an interesting evening before the Final Field And Barrier Draw Ceremony, whilst the three-year-olds look to be on the back foot at present.

 

There will be a longer handicap this year with a 10kg spread in the weights from a topweight of 62kg down to a bottom weight of 52kg.

 

Furthermore, it will just be a straight handicap, unlike recent July conditions in which there was a maximum and minimum weight for certain age groups and genders.

 

If the final field happens to have a spread that is less than 10kg, the topweight will still be 62kg. If, for example, there is a weight spread of 7kg among the entries, then the bottom weight will be 55kg.

 

If the topweights are scratched after the setting of the weights, then the new topweight will be dragged up to 62kg. For example if the topweight after scratchings is 60,5kg, it will be dragged up to 62kg and after the rest of the field have been dragged up the bottom weight will become 53,5kg.

 

The final field will not necessarily be chosen by merit rating order.

 

Justin Vermaak, Executive Racing and Bloodstock of Race Coast, said, “There will be a final field selection panel like before and merit rating will be a leading aspect, but the panel will also take current form and distance suitability into account etc.”

 

In recent years the final field panellists have not had it too tough as the field was cut up before the final field announcement, with a lot of horses being scratched due to the recognition by the connections they do not have much chance, either due to the weights not favouring them or due to them being off form – the final declaration fee could have, in those cases, been considered a waste of money.

 

However, with the longer handicap, there are going to be more horses who still have form chances on paper.

 

Looking at last year’s July for example, third-placed Selukwe was rated 111 and had to carry 54kg due to the condition that the minimum weight for an older male was 54kg. He was thus 2kg under sufferance with the 127-rated topweights, both older horses, and he was 4kg under sufferance with the officially best weighted horse, the 129 rated (nett 125-rated) Eight On Eighteen, who was set to carry 57kg despite being the highest merit rated horse in the race due to a condition that three-year-old males could not carry more than 57kg.

 

In last year’s race Oriental Charm carried 60kg, Eight On Eighteen carried 57kg and Selukwe carried 54kg.

 

Under this year’s conditions the weights for those three horses would have been: Oriental Charm 62kg, Eight On Eighteen 61kg and Selukwe 54kg. Selukwe would have been 2kg and 4kg better off with Oriental Charm and Eight On Eighteen respectively under today’s conditions.

 

He would have been 2kg better off with the winner The Real Prince too and, on paper, would have been beaten 0,30 lengths instead of by 2,65 lengths.

 

There could theoretically have been a horse who would have been even more favoured by today’s conditions than the 111-rated Selukwe example.

 

Using last year’s race under today’s conditions, an older horse who had been rated 107 would sneak into the handicap under today’s conditions.

 

A 107-rated older horse last year would have had to carry 54kg, 6kg less than the topweight, but under today’s conditions it would have only had to carry 52kg, which would be 10kg less than the 62kg topweight.

 

Therefore, there are theoretically going be a lot more horses standing their ground at the time of the final field selection process this year, because a lot more of them will have chances of winning on paper than would have been the case under the old conditions.

 

Furthermore, with stakes of R10 million up for grabs there will be less cases of horses being scratched due to the  connections deeming them to be off form. They might still want to take their chances.

 

The difficulty for the panel will come in deciding whether a lower rated horse is deemed to have better recent form or better distance suitability than a higher rated horse.

 

For argument sakes let’s assume that we go back to last year and there are still many horses standing their ground until the bitter end. After the top 17 are selected, according to the last log and current form, let’s assume the next two horses are the 115-rated Madison Valley and the 120-rated The Real Prince.

 

The Real Prince is rated five points higher than Madison Valley, but he has never run a race beyond 1600m before.

 

Madison Valley on the other hand finished a close fourth in the Betway Summer Cup over 2000m and in his final run before the July he won the traditional July pointer, the Hollywoodbets Dolphins Cup Trial over 1800m.

 

Which one are they going to put in the all important 18th slot?

 

Such a scenario is going to have much more chance of happening this year.

 

Although it has been said that weight avoidance tactics are going to be used this year, those who do take that route are probably going to run a bigger risk of not qualifying than ever before.

 

Now on to the three-year-olds.

 

Eight On Eighteen was held in high regard last year and came into the race 2kg well-in, according to official merit ratings, and yet he was not able to win the race.

 

Under today’s conditions he would have had to carry 61kg, effectively 2kg more.

 

So it was tough last year for a top, top three-year-old who was favoured by the old conditions.

 

How tough will it be for good-but-not-great three-year-olds under the new conditions, considering there is no maximum weight for them and no minimum weight for older horses?

 

Likewise it will be tough for females.

 

Furthermore, this year’s three-year-old crop are arguably overrated off their current merit ratings.

 

For example, Gauteng Guineas runner up Grand Empire could not win the Wolf Power 1600 against older horses when 2kg under sufferance off a 102 merit rating (effectively a 106 merit rating), yet he is now rated 120. There will be cries of “but the handicapper is clueless” when looking at that, but those who do say that are clueless themselves, because the handicapper rates a race on that race, not on past races, and Tin Pan Alley had earned his 117 rating by beating older horses and Grand Empire had then beaten him. Furthermore, Grand Empire was likely not at his peak for the Wolf Power with the Triple crown series looming.

 

Nevertheless, the overall impression is the current three-year-old male crop is not shining and it is questionable whether any of them have properly earned a rating of 120 or above.

 

It could well be an older horse July, but on the other hand there is an impressive unexposed horse like Note To Self among the three-year-olds and more such types might emerge.

 

The build up to this year’s Hollywoodbets Durban July is going to be more intriguing than ever!