RACE 1

10 NORTHUMBERLAND 2 BILLION STARS 11 RAPTOR KING 12 SANDS OF VALHALL

Preview: 10 NORTHUMBERLAND made a good debut and is the one to beat. 2 BILLION STARS is by William Longsword and is a half-brother to the like of Tail Of The Comet. 11 RAPTOR KING is by New Predator and is a half-brother to WSB Met runner up Legal Counsel. 12 SANDS OF VALHALLA is by Erik The Red and is a half-brother to a couple of multiple winners. (David Thiselton 10-2-11-12)

RACE 2

5 PLATINUM SHAY 1 ALICE B TOKLAS 2 ARROGANCE 7 STORM AVALANCHE

Preview: 5 PLATINUM SHAY has run some fair races in fair fields and can go close. 1 ALICE B TOKLAS made a good debut and should go close. 2 ARROGANCE is a first-timer by Gimmethegreenlight out of a Captain Al mare. 7 STORM AVALANCHE is a first-timer by Rafeef out of a Dynasty mare.  (David Thiselton 5-1-2-7)

RACE 3

1 ROYALE JACKET 6 ASIAH’S TIARA 5 GREENSIDE GIRL 2 EMERALD CITY

Preview: 1 ROYALE JACKET has been in good form and has a good opportunity here. 6 ASIAH’S TIARA can go close if repeating her last start. 5 GREENSIDE GIRL has shown some ability and can earn here.  2 EMERALD CITY can be in the shake up if producing her best. (David Thiselton 1-6-5-2)

RACE 4

2 GIMMESUMLUV 4 COOL REGGAE 5 VIXENINTHEVINEYARD 3 STORM BALLET

Preview: 2 GIMMESUMLUV looks set to come into her own over a suitable trip with De Melo up.  4 COOL REGGAE ran a cracker over 2000m last time and could be right there. 5 VIXENINTHEVINEYARD should also be in the shake up. 3 STORM BALLET has the form to be a contender. (David Thiselton 2-4-5-3)

RACE 5

1 BATTLEGROUND 2 ONE MORE STAR 3 DAMOVA 5 FUTUREWOLFF

Preview: 1 BATTLEGROUND is a useful stayer on his day and in form Marx-Jacobson should suit him. 2 ONE MORE STAR enjoyed the trip last time and has a fine chance. 3 DAMOVA is in good form and goes well for this jockey. 5 FUTUREWOLFF won well over this trip last time and has a chance off a three point higher mark with Yeni up from pole position. (David Thiselton 1-2-3-5)

RACE 6

1 KING HARALD 2 GOLDEN OPERATOR 3 WILD INTENT 5 STORM BRASCO

Preview: 1 KING HARALD has some class and should go close. 2 GOLDEN OPERATOR is on the up and should be right there. 3 WILD INTENT is the best weighted but returns from a layoff since the Summer Cup. 5 STORM BRASCO looked promising at one stage and should start coming into his own. (David Thiselton 1-2-3-5)

RACE 7

2 RACHEL WALL 5 GREEN FLASH 6 ROAMING SPIRIT 7 BLIZZARD SNOW

Preview: 2 RACHEL WALL is quick and is the one to beat here. 5 GREEN FLASH has speed and can stay on too. 6 ROAMING SPIRIT has the form to earn here. 7 BLIZZARD SNOW is capable of popping up. (David Thiselton 2-5-6-7)

RACE 8

7 LOVABLE 2 MISS NOVAX 1 CAROLINE ISLAND 3 WISE COUNSEL

Preview: 7 LOVABLE looks capable of stepping up in this race. 2 MISS NOVAX has the ability to be a contender here. 1 CAROLINE ISLAND should be in the shake up in tis line up. 3 WISE COUNSEL has ability and has a chance here. (David Thiselton 7-2-1-3)

David Thiselton

The professional handicappers of South Africa have sent out a press release urging stake holders who are attending the South African Trainers Association (SANTA) handicapping workshop on Wednesday, April 15, at the TBA Sales Complex at Gosforth Park, to only consider those decisions made at the workshop that are guided by data and evidence rather than by anecdotal or observational claims.

The handicappers themselves will abstain from the Workshop “for reasons that include the avoidance of becoming persuasive to the attendees, given that all evidence suggests that the current system and its application is statistically functioning as intended and designed.”

However, they sent out the press release to ensure “that all stakeholders have access to current information ahead of policy discussions at the forthcoming SANTA held Workshop.”

It is certainly an understandable lament in South African racing that superior horses find it more difficult to rattle off a number of wins at the beginning of their careers, as they were reportedly able to do under the old Race Figure system, before being weighted according to their true ability.

However, the NHA press release pointed out the dangers of embracing a system that favours superior horses and it also pointed to the current statistics which show that three-year-olds are not at all unduly punished compared to other age groups.

Whilst, purists of any sport like to watch the best against the best, the handicappers have to operate in a way that best sustains the entire racing population as well as the players associated with it.

In the press release they referred to the Handicappers’ mandate which is “to, by handicapping, distribute the stakes pot as equitably as possible.”

They said making changes to aid better horses carried the risk of favouring big yards and effecting field sizes.

They pointed to the experiment of the “Assessment Plate” and put it under the headline of “the risk of uninformed decisions”.

A conclusion on a study of overall racing stats and a study of Assessment Plate stats was that Assessment Plates contained smaller fields and favoured superior horses and they were thus dominated by bigger yards.

The late guru analyst Jay August commented, “If the Handicapper’s assessment of the highly rated horse ex their maiden win was wrong (too high), then the stats should show that. They do not, which leads me to believe that Assessment Plates have little to do with assessment but more to do with helping superior animals to win a few races before their ability is penalised too much.’’

Moving on, three-year-olds have been shown to actually have a higher strike rate in handicap races than any other age group, which falsifies the claim they are punished unduly.

In the current season three-years have had 1448 runs and a strike rate of 13%, four-year-olds have had 2431 runs and a strike rate of 11%, five-year-olds have had 1876 runs and a strike rate of 10% and six-year-olds and older 1,398 runs and a strike rate of 7%.

Statistics have also shown that the top five yards have had 973 runs in handicaps and a strike rate of 13.6%, while they have had 1,637 runs in non-handicaps and a strike rate of 15.3%.

The handicappers are thus concerned that any further adjustment to the existing handicapping system would disproportionately benefit trainers with access to higher-quality horses. Given the limited number of handicap races available, such changes could severely disadvantage trainers outside the top ten on the trainers’ log, creating an uneven playing field and undermining competitive balance.

The Handicapping Team believes that the current system is functioning exactly as designed and the data contained the following key indicators:

Participation: Higher acceptance rates in Handicaps and Merit Rating based races.

Elimination Data: High demand for entry in premier events such as the Hollywoodbets Durban July, Golden Horse Casino Sprint, Betway Summer Cup and the Charity Mile confirm the system’s integrity at the pattern level.

Program Stability: Programmers frequently rely on Handicap formats to ensure adequate field sizes.

Open Betting Market: These races consistently produce closer finishes and a more robust betting market, which ultimately extends the racing careers of the horse population.

Competitive Density: Data indicates that the average beaten finisher in a Handicap is 3.5 lengths behind the winner, compared to 4.8 lengths in non-handicap races. This suggests the system is achieving its primary goal of narrowing the gap between competitors.

Systemic Balance: The National Merit Ratings Update continues to ensure a balanced distribution of ratings across all age groups, preventing structural bias within the population – the handicappers believed any skewing of the current table which shows 45% of horses to be rated 74 and higher (as compared to 2019 when only 27% were 74 and higher) would result in programming difficulties.

Merit Rating Appeals: Since the cancellation of the previous guidelines in 2019, Handicappers have assessed approximately 188,500 performances. Remarkably, during this entire review period, only 14 appeals were lodged of which 11 were dismissed.

They added this was despite operating under some constraints, which included:

The program is currently already skewed towards higher rated horses as there has been a reduction in true handicaps and an increase in merit-rated band races (Pinnacles, A, B, C and D Stakes Races, Middle Stakes Races). These races are not true handicaps and favour horses at the top of each rating band. This creates a structural bias with many horses entering races where they have little chance of success. The handicapper then face a dilemma, with an example being a horse that does not earn because it was at the bottom of a merit rating band and ran accordingly, but does not get dropped in the merit ratings, because at the weights it still did actually run to its rating. Earners, on the other hand, might be at the top of the bands but are not unduly punished because they were firstly at a weight advantage and, furthermore, merit rated restrictions are placed on these races anyway. This results in a cycle where winning horses continue to win, while others are relegated to “field fillers.”

They pointed out that owners and trainers often equate competitiveness with victory, but as there are more horses than handicap races, the handicappers are judged against an unrealistic benchmark i.e. in every season there will be many horses (1365 to be exact for the current season if only handicap races are considered) who will have the same number of career wins that they began the season with, no matter which handicap system was adopted.

In summary the handicappers overall message was that any changes made should be accompanied by a factual analysis that supports it being workable considering the horse population and the nature of South African racing in which turnover and owner participation are important considerations.

The press release can be read on the nha.co.za website under Press Releases.

Please note: South African Quartet Pools with fractional betting offered at Leicester and Newcastle (UK) – 13 April 2026.

David Thiselton

The weekend was a memorable one for big players both in South Africa and overseas, with Hollywood Racing having memorable experiences both at home and abroad, while two Race Coast Sales races at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Saturday went to deserved big players and a new ownership record was established on the same day in the Grand National at Aintree.

In the R6 million Race Coast Sales Big Cap over 1400m at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Saturday the winner was Roland Garros from the yard of champion trainer Justin Snaith and this horse runs in the Greg and Gina Bortz colours which were carried to Hollywoodbets Durban July glory by Oriental Charm two years ago. Greg and Gina need no introduction and own Roland Garros in partnership with JP Cuvelier.

Both Roland Garros and Oriental Charm are by Vercingetorix, a sire which Greg had famously targeted at the Sales before his stallion profile had reached the phenomenal heights of today. The strategy has brought him his two biggest pay days in racing.

Three-year-old Roland Garros was officially 2,5kg out with the best weighted runner, the filly Just Be Lekka, but he faced the four-year-old favourite Talk To The Master as well as the two other prominent three-year-olds Randolph Hearst and Malmesbury Missile on exact handicapping terms.

Roland Garros’ form on paper was virtually on a par with Malmesbury Missile, but he had the advantage of pole position, whilst the latter was draw wide in nine in the 12 horse field. Roland Garros was also entitled to have come on from his last start, a close runner up finish in the March Stakes over 1400m at Hollywoodbets Scottsville on March 1, as it provided a springboard into the Big Cap.

Roland Garros had been beaten 1,40 lengths by his stablemate Randolph Hearst in the Gr 1 Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas, but his form points to him being better over shorter and in fact Roland Garros had beaten Randolph Hearst as a juvenile over 1500m, albeit by a shorthead.

In the Big Cap Talk To The Master had a good draw of two and Randolph Hearst had a fair draw of five.

As it happened JP van der Merwe used Roland Garros’s good gatespeed and early speed to find the perfect position on the rail behind Isivivane, who was sitting behind Just Be Lekka, who was setting a fair pace.

The 18/10 favourite Talk To The Master sat behind Roland Garros, but the latter was able to steal a march on him turning for home.

Talk To The Master came around What A Fortune, who turned for home alongside Roland Garros, but whilst Craig Zackey had to ride the favourite all the way down the straight, JP van der Merwe still had Roland Garros in the hands at the 200m mark and the writing was on the wall.

Roland Garros won by 1,0 lengths from Talk To The Master with What A Fortune staying on to be beaten just a head into third and next best were Isivivane and Randolph Hearst.

Malmesbury Missile had to come from last after being dropped out and was too far back, finishing a 4.05 length sixth.

The first prize was a cool R3 million, in comparison to the R2,94 million Oriental Charm had banked for his July win.

Greg Bortz purchased the Varsfontein Stud-bred Roland Garros for R1.3 million at the Race Coast Sales Cape Premier Yearling Sale.

There was a remarkable result in the R3 million Race Coast Sales Slipper as the first three past the post were all part-owned by the racing partnership of Laurence Wernars, Rikesh Sewgoolam and Mukund Gujadhur, while the Wernars was sole owner of the fourth-placed horse.

Sean Tarry was trainer of the victor, the Querari colt Turn It Up, who was the joint-most impressive winner of the day and looks to have an exciting future ahead of him. The half-brother to the Gr 1 Gold Medallion winner Proceed (Gimmethegreenlight) is also bred by Wernars and after being dropped out from a wide draw of ten in the 1200m contest he made up the ground effortlessly on the outside under Keagan de Melo and won easing up by 2,20 lengths.

The Vaughan Marshall-trained One World colt World Series was second followed by the Piet and Elbert Steyn-trained Gr 3 Ridgemont Cape Of Good Hope Nursery winner Red Spice (Erik The Red) and next best were the Louis Goosen-trained Erik Dubois (Erik The Red) and the Tarry-trained Secretary Bird (Rafeef).

Fitting in with those two Sales results was the win of the Marshall-trained Questioning in an A Stakes race, the other most impressive winner of the day. He is owned by the Bortz’s in partnership with Gujadhur and the Wernars Family and sounded a warning to other big older 1200m to a mile horses in the Champions Season.

On Friday at Fairview Hollywood Racing scored a double, including winning the day’s feature with the Dean Smith-trained Craig Zackey-ridden 117-rated sprinter Cruise Control. When the Cliffie Miller-trained Lancaster Bomber gelding Cheerful Charlie B won the last race of the day, Hollywood had reached 128 wins for the season, which equalled their own record for wins in a season that they had set last term.

When the Vengi Masawi-trained Qhude Manikiniki won the second at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Saturday, Hollywood Racing had set a new mark for themselves of 129 and they ended the weekend on 131 wins for the season.

Hollywood Racing and Riskesh Sewgoolam had also finished an unlucky second on Friday in a North American Gr 1 race with their crack Drakenstein Stud-bred One World colt One Stripe, confirming that he can compete with the world’s best in the Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland.

In the Grand National on Saturday legendary owner and punter JP McManus became the first owner in history to win the race four times when 2024 winner I Am Maximus regained the crown. Watched by a crowd of 59,962 I Am Maximus became the first horse since Red Rum to regain his Grand National crown. Trainer Willie Mullins had thus won the race for the third time in succession and he had made it a record-equalling fourth win for a trainer.

• SPLITTHEEIGHTS: 109 to 116
• ONE EYE ON VEGAS: 106 to 115
• RADIO STAR: 95 to 107

• SCARLETT HEART (third): 91 to 108
• DAISY JONES (fourth): 106 to 108