Greyville Wednesday 24/10/2018

Barrier Trial Greyville poly 1000m 24/10/2018

1st Procal Harum (Khan/Howells MR104 A t 60kg draw 5) This was his return from a three-and-a-half month layoff and he strode out well under a hold and did it effortlessly albeit in a slow time. 61.19 seconds.

2nd 0.25 Allez Les Bleu (AUS) (Kennedy/Lafferty A 58kg draw 7) This Australian-bred filly is by Denman, a Group 1 winner over 1400m, out of a Lonhro maiden who has produced the five-time winning stable companion to Allez Les Bleu, My Zinzara, as well as an eleven-time winner. She had one previous barrier trial at Greyville on 28/09/2018 and on this occasion was rousted early to go into second place and strode out well from then onward. 61.23 seconds.

3rd 1,75 News Stream (De Melo/Dixon S 59kg draw 2) This unraced Byword filly was green around the turn and had to be pushed along but strode out well throughout. She is not the biggest but has a nice action. 61.48 seconds.

4th 4,50 Ideal Winter (Jacobson/Van Zyl (Jnr) MR82 sB 59kg draw 3) This five-time winning Ideal World mare has won from 1400-2400m and was returning from a four-and-a-half month layoff. She is big and has the rangy action typical of the Ideal Worlds and strode out well throughout. 61.94 seconds.

5th 6,50 Belle Of Paris (Jacobs -4 kg/Puller A  58kg draw 8) This unraced Golden Sword filly has scope and strode out fine. She will need further like most Golden Swords. 62.27 seconds.

6th 6,55 Great Crusade (Brown/Goosen A 59kg draw 1) This unraced Crusade gelding ran in one previous barrier trial on September 30. On this occasion he was green and had to be driven to stay in touch but is gangly so can improve as he matures. 62.28 seconds.

7th 14,55 Extra Mile (Moodley/Hill A  59kg draw 4) This unraced Ashaawes gelding dwelt and lost a few lengths and was then very green. He has scope and quite a big action and was doing some fair work late. 63.62 seconds.

8th 15,05 Red Fuel (Sakayi -2.5 kg/Rich A 59kg draw 9) This unraced Mogok gelding is small and doesn’t have the biggest action either and battled to stay in touch. 63.7 seconds.

9th 18,05 Hartleyseven (Ramzan -4 kg/Dixon S 59kg draw 6) This unraced Eightfold Path gelding dwelt and was green throughout, but is big and scopey and has quite a nice big action. He will come on from this outing. 64.2 seconds.

By David Thiselton

Verdier (Candiese Marnewick)

Noble Princess to wear the crown

There could be two Pick 6 bankers at the Vaal Inside track tomorrow in Noble Princess and Seventh Rule.

Noble Princess is a scopey daughter of Mambo In Seattle who was a touch unlucky over 1600m last time when losing a length and just failing to hold on. In the second leg of tomorrow’s Pick 6 over 1800m she has a plum draw over a step up in trip she should relish. The main danger looks to be Pachanga, who has a big heart but is one paced and has finished second five times in succession. Magic’s First made up some ground from midfield over 1600m last time and the risk averse could consider her for the Pick 6.

In the last leg of the Pick 6 over 1200m Seventh Rule looks to have been waiting for this trip as he has plenty of pace and stays up to 1400m so can lead from start to finish. He did fail over this trip in his first run out of the maidens but is now running off a merit rating a whopping 14 points lower. He lost on that occasion by three lengths to Cumberland and the latter has had strong formlines since, including winning one more race. Beyond Seventh Rule it is wide open. Camel Walk ran well the last time he tried this trip and could be the main danger along with Prince Jordan, who goes well for Lyle Hewitson and will be a big threat if bouncing back to his best after three disappointing runs. Pius Oil, Fly North and Singaswewin are others who warrant consideration.

Verdier (Candiese Marnewick)

Verdier (Candiese Marnewick)

The Pick 6 starts off with a Maiden over 2000m which looks to be a two horse race. Both Indy Ice and Winter Crusade are rangy types who should relish this trip and the only concern is their wide draws. Aeronautical is the danger on form but is even wider drawn. The two well drawn horses who could come to the party if the main protagonists suffer bad luck in running are Festive Linngari and Tongue Twister.

The third leg of the Pick 6 over 1800m is an Assessment Plate and it provides an easy opportunity on paper for Like A Panther, who is very well treated at the weights according to official merit ratings. However, he has not run for 180 days so his stablemate Hakeem and the up-and-coming Gift For The Gap can also be included. Hakeem ran a fair race over this trip on Saturday considering he set a strong pace and he can do better if ridden more conservatively from a good draw. Gift For The Gap is unbeaten in two starts over further than a mile and is by the exciting sire Master Of My Fate, whose destiny as a stallion will be influenced by how well his three-year-old crop do this season.

The next leg is a classy Assessment Plate over 1100m for fillies and mares. In The Dance was impressive on debut and this Gimmethegreenlight filly could prove to have as good a turn of foot as her half-brother Capetown Noir. She has only had that one start so only has to carry 56kg and looks the one to beat. Xplosive Kiss also made an impressive debut and looks the main threat. Dalai’s Promise has proved how good she is since arriving on the Highveld, winning both of her starts there, but she does have to give the first two choices 3kg. However, she does still warrant consideration and so do Witch Of The West and San Fermin. The former has class and should run well fresh over a trip too sharp and the latter is the best in at the weights on official merit ratings, although it has to be said she has been a disappointment overall considering how highly she was touted after her winning debut.

The eighth race is the trickiest race in the Pick 6, not surprisingly as it is a low grade handicap for fillies and mares. Trip To Ibiza had some fair Cape Town form and was dropped two points after a mediocre Highveld debut. However, she has gone close in both starts off her current mark, both over this trip on the Inside track, and she might prefer running down the straight as she can pack a strong finish. She does have a very high draw so any draw bias on the day will have to be noted. Kissmeinmydreams loves this course and distance so is a must include. Ensemble has placed in both of her post maiden starts and Raymond Danielson stays aboard and others to include are Goodness Me, Count Kournikova, Tricia and Announcing Rain.

The first leg of the PA over 1400m should be fought out by the promising pair Rosario and Sea Venture, who were only a quarter of a length apart over 1200m last time. Rosario has the draw in her favour again, but Sea Venture looks the more likely of the pair to enjoy the step up in trip.

By David Thiselton

Twist Of Fate (Liesl King)

Twist Of Fate raised to new rating

Twist Of Fate has been raised 2kg to a new merit rating of 109 by the handicappers for his convincing win in last Saturday’s Cape Classic and Joey Ramsden yesterday said that the Master Of My Fate colt will bypass the Concord Cup (previously Selangor) to go straight for the Forus Cape Guineas on 15 December.

He added: “He came out of the race very well. I still have doubts (about the horse getting the trip). You have to have doubts about everything in this country – nothing is what it seems on paper.”

Twist Of Fate was giving 2kg to half the field and 4kg to the other half. Runner-up Cirillo has been left on an unchanged 102 and at this stage stands out in the R2.5 million CTS Ready To Run on 24 November – assuming he is not drawn next to the M5.

Pleasedtomeetyou, beaten three lengths into third after failing to get the trip, has been put up 1.5kg to a mark of 96. Fourth-placed Majestic Mozart, less than half a length further back, stays on 84.

By Michael Clower

Ultra Magnus (Candiese Marnewick)

Beware the false favourite

Any top jockey, and Piere Strydom has banged this drum for years, will tell you that they ride many a false favourite, simply because they are aboard. It is obviously testament to their ability but in the final analysis it is up to the punter to sort out what is a worthy favourite and what is possibly a false favourite.

Anton Marcus has almost free rein in KZN and, given his winning strike rate, he is not a bad judge when it comes to picking the plums. Currently lying second on the National Jockey log with a nearly 29% winning strike rate from a third of the number of mounts as log leader Muzi Yeni who is 13 winners clear and flits from centre to centre, the stats tell the story.

Prime example is today’s poly meeting at Greyville where Marcus has fancied rides in all of the seven races where he is pencilled in.

Ultra Magnus (Candiese Marnewick)

Ultra Magnus (Candiese Marnewick)

Two of those are for Brett Crawford. First up is Ultra Magnus in the second. Marcus partnered the colt to an easy end-to-end victory over course and distance first up and has stayed with the ride. The form of that race has proved to be a little suspect but the stable have high hopes and Ultra Magnus must surely have come on from the experience. He has also been an early touch, in from 4-1 to 2-1 in the early exchanges on Track & Ball.

The Dennis Drier pairing of JJ’s Captain and Rockcliffe are the most likely threats. Rockliffe was not far back in a decent handicap first up out of the maidens while JJ’S Captain has not been out since early June but has shown potential and stable rider Sean Veale is aboard.

Cruz Giovanni is next up for the Crawford/Marcus combination and they share early 2-1 favouritism with Alistair Gordon’s charge Sigismund. Marcus was aboard the latter when second best behind Blackburn Roc but with Wilgerbosdrift & Mauritzfontein retained rider Craig Zackey in town, riding arrangements have been reversed with Zackey aboard Cruz Giovanni on debut.

Both could be upstaged by Paddington’s Luck who was a smart second over 1900m last time out and drops to 1600m with the addition of blinkers.

Bookmakers have been unable to chose between stable companions Kazaar and Sir Bernadini in the Pinnacle Stakes and the betting may prove the best guide for punters as to which is the more fancied. Brandon Lerena is generally first call rider for owner Brian Bernard and has ridden both horses recently but Marcus is seldom short of a word or three when it comes to the art of persuasion. Gunner and Legend look pick of the balance.

Craig Eudey has handed in his trainer’s brief and Mike Miller will saddled Eetee in the opening leg of the Jackpot, a modest Qualified Maiden. The filly has only run one decent race in nine starts but Marcus takes over from an apprentice and a change of environment can often bring a horse on.

However, this is one race where one is advised to go very wide in your exotics. Shaylen Naidoo makes his first raid on KZN from his Turffontein base and Fuyu, who has shown good pace at her last two starts, should be well suited to the poly track and could prove the pick.

Mark Khan has teamed up with Duncan Howells and Silver Raisin is one of four horses vying for favouritism in the sixth. Laat Lammetjie, Dark Chocolate, Karatage and Pina Colada will all have their supporters.

Mythical Magic is a weak favourite for the seventh, possibly because of the present of Marcus in the saddle as their does not appear to be very much between most of the field. Vallanaut won well on the course last time out and can follow-up while Peggy’s Dream has been dropping steadily in the ratings and looks competitive on this line-up.

Robbie Hill’s filly Generate with Marcus aboard has been priced up 13-10 for the last after making a smart debut at Scottsville but there has been significant ante-post support for Chanel Allure who comes into the race off a barrier trial.

By Andrew Harrison

Andrew Harrison (New)

Greyville Wednesday Tips and Race Previews

Greyville Wednesday Tips and Race Previews by Andrew Harrison

Race 1

1 Promising last effort after long break.
2 Two useful recent efforts. Chance.
3 Needs to show more.
4 Poor form. Rested. Has shown promise.
6 Consistent but needs to show more.
7 Useful last run this trip. Not out of it.
8 Needs to show more.
9 Modest trial but can improve on that.
10 Outpaced last run. Better this trip.

1 L’HISTOIRE   5 MYSTERIOUS OMEN   7 BELLS APOSTEL   2 LUCARA
Preview: L’HISTOIRE (1) showed up well when returning from a lengthy break. He trialled well and wears blinkers from a good draw.  MYSTERIOUS OMEN (5) comes off a short break. He took on stronger at his last outing and had shown some promise before that. BELLS APOSTLE (7) improved last run when dropped in trip. Can feature here. LUCARA (2) is starting to come to hand and looks ready. Can go close. (Andrew Harrison: 1-5-7-2).

Race 2

1 In good form. Narrowly beaten last run. Back on poly.
2 Useful recent form over further.
3 Lengthy break but has shown promise.
4 Smart win on debut. Looks progressive.
5 Smart poly form. Can go close.
6 Rested. Met useful field last start.
7 Needs to show more.
8 Tough at these weights.

4 ULTRA MAGNUS   5 ROCKCLIFFE   1 CAPTAIN VON TRAPP   3 JJ’S CAPTAIN
Preview: ULTRA MAGNUS (4) was well supported on debut and won well. Can follow up. ROCKCLIFFE (5) showed up strongly first run out of the maidens. He could prove the pick of the Drier runners with JJ’S CAPTAIN (3) returning from a break but has the stable rider aboard. CAPTAIN VON TRAPP switches to the poly but has smart recent form and is overdue a win. SAND PATH (2) drops back to a sprint and could surprise. (Andrew Harrison: 4-5-1-3).

Race 3

1 Patchy form. Has been trying further.
2 Tries blinkers. Could surprise.
3 Can do better than recent. Marcus rides.
4 Some recent improvement. Chance here.
5 Highveld raider. Improved last two.
6 Shown some ability. Blinkers on.
7 Fair last run. Form stable.
8 Needs to show more.
9 Poor form.
10 Poor form.
11 Poor form. Blinkers on.
12 Poor form. Down in trip.
13 Poor form.

5 FUYU   3 EETEE   2 LEANDRA   7 WATCH ME GO
Preview: Difficult. Highveld raider FUYU (5) has come well at recent outings and could be the right one here. EETEE (3) has her first run for a new stable. Has shown some ability and with Marcus up must have a chance. LEANDRA (2) does not have the best of the draw but the blinkers go on and her better form has been over sprints. WATCH ME GO (7) comes from a very much in form stable and did show improvement last time out. (Andrew Harrison: 5-3-2-7).

Race 4

1 Beaten favourite last two. Better this trip.
2 Coming to hand. Will enjoy the extra.
3 Good last run. Blinkers on and can do better.
4 Poor form.
5 Some improvement last start.
6 Poor form.
7 Gelded. Can improve.
8 Smart debut from wide draw.
9 Modest debut.
10 Modest trial. Up in trip.
11 Showed up well on debut. Not out of it.

8 CRUZ GIOVANNI   1 SIGISMUND   3 PADDINGTONS LUCK   2 STONE TIGER
Preview: Competitive. CRUZ GIOVANNI (8) made a smart debut from a difficult draw on the Greyville turf. He has drawn well here and looks progressive. Wilgerbos-retained rider Craig Zackey replaces Marcus on SIGISMUND (1). Beaten favourite at his last two but can do much better over this trip. PADDINGTONS LUCK (3) was a little one-paced when second over further. The blinkers go on over this shorter trip. STONE TIGER (2) is coming to hand slowly and should enjoy the extra. All four have winning chances. (Andrew Harrison: 8-1-3-2).

Race 5

1 Seldom far back. Can go close.
2 Rested. More than useful.
3 Smart trial. Always in the money.
4 Unpredictable. Can surprise.
5 Rested. May need it.
6 Back in form but up in the handicap.
7 Rating drop. Can go close.
8 Chance on best effort.
9 Always game but in a tough one.

3 SIR BERNADINI   7 LEGEND   1 MR ROY   6 GUNNER
Preview: SIR BERNADINI (3) has yet to finish out of the money. He put in a cracking trial and will go close on his best form. LEGEND (7) has dropped nicely in the ratings and now looks competitive. MR ROY (1) has his third run after a break. He has a 4kg claimer up and will go close on his best showing. GUNNER (6) has come well of late and beat a smart colt last time out. However, he earned a five-pound penalty for that win. (Andrew Harrison: 3-7-1-6).

Race 6

1 Rested and has been trying further.
2 Promising last effort. Go close.
3 Holding form. Will be right there.
4 Useful last two on the turf. Should run well.
5 Two smart sprints. Jumps in trip.
6 Has been trying further. Can surprise.
7 Needs to improve on recent.
8 Surprised last run but has ability.
9 Trialled well. Needs to show more.
10 Back on poly. Upset chance.
11 Rating drop. Upset chance.

3 SILVER RAISIN   4 KARATAGE   5 KEEP IT REAL   8 PINA COLADA
Preview: SILVER RAISIN (3) has been in good form since her maiden win. From a good draw she should be competitive. KARATAGE (4) has shown up nicely at her last two. He best recent effort has been over course and distance. KEEP IT REAL (5) has put up two smart sprints. She jumps in trip and class but looks progressive. PINA COLADA (8) in never far back and only got a small penalty after her last win. (Andrew Harrison: 3-4-5-8).

Race 7

1 Disappointed in Kimberley.
2 First run new stable. Has done well on the poly.
3 Patchy form. Not out of it.
4 Much improved last run. Drops further in class.
5 Seldom far back. Go close.
6 Looks held on last two.
7 Better than attest. Can surprise.
8 Surprised last run. To hand now.
9 Consistent. Up in trip.
10 Smart last win. Can go in again.
12 Down in class. Switches to poly.
13 Long layoff.

4 MYTHICAL MAGIC   10 VALLANAUT   5 PEGGY’S DREAM   2 LIVERPOOL LASS
Preview: Open. MYTHICAL MAGIC (4) is down in class and caught the eye last time out. VALLANAUT (10) won well last start. She showed consistent form before that and can go in again.  PEGGY’S DREAM (5) goes well over course and distance and has not been far back at recent starts. LIVERPOOL LASS (2) shed her maiden on the poly. Her recent Highveld form is not too bad and she has a decent chance in this line-up. (Andrew Harrison: 4-10-5-2).

Race 8

1 Overdue. Should go close.
2 Failed narrowly last run. Big chance.
3 Much improved last start. Needs to repeat.4 Poor form.
5 Improved last two. Tongue-tie back on.
6 Trialled well. One to watch.
7 Smart sprint debut. Drawn well.
8 Two modest trials.
9 Poor debut.
10 Two modest trials. Better this trip.

1 SILVER PRANCER   2 ADORNED BY BEAUTY   7 GENEREIGHT   6 CHANEL ALLURE
Preview: SILVER PRANCER (1) has been expensive to follow but may be worth one more chance as she has a better gate than what looks to be her biggest threat ADORNED BY BEAUTY (2) who was narrowly beaten over course and distance last time out. GENEREIGHT (7) made a smart sprint debut and with Marcus up needs to be respected. CHANEL ALLURE (6) caught the eye in her trial and is another to watch in the market. (Andrew Harrison: 1-2-7-6).

Coral Fever (JC Photographics)

No whip race at Turffontein

A ban of the whip has been gaining momentum in the UK and Phumelela have showed their support for this movement by staging a race at Turffontein on Saturday in which jockeys will not be permitted to use whips.

Saturday sees the running of the R1-million Peermont Emperors Charity Mile and Clyde Basel, on-course sales and marketing executive for Phumelela, views the meeting as an ideal opportunity to introduce whip-free racing to the public. “Being Charity Mile we want to show that we are willing to take a positive step forward for those who support a welfare approach to the role of animals in our lives,” he said.

“As a responsible operator/regulator there is a view that the current rules and penalties around the use of the whip are simply not good enough and can be both improved and made clearer.

“Obviously much research still needs to be done but this is a perfect trial for Charity Mile day with the newbies (celebrities and the like) all watching, and in particular all the horse-related charities who will welcome this concept with open arms.”

Jockey Piere Strydom has been a keen exponent of the innovative move. “While the whips do not inflict pain on the horse, it still does a lot of damage to the image of the sport.

“I feel this is a very positive move and I congratulate the operator for coming up with the concept,” said Strydom.

Coral Fever (JC Photographics)

Coral Fever (JC Photographics)

Trainer Mike de Kock is another staunch supporter. “The first question we get from newcomers to the sport is ‘why do we whip horses’. It gives the sport a very poor image and I’ve been pushing his idea for months.

“There are no negatives. It can only be positive for horseracing.”

In 2011 The British Horseracing Authority (BHA) had a ten month review of the use of the whip and as a result they made new whip restrictions and instituted more severe penalties for whip offenses.

However at the time racing pundit John McCririck believed the sport had missed an ideal opportunity to boost its image by failing to ban hitting horses with the whip.

He described the BHA as ‘gutless’, but believed it would be just a matter of time before hitting horses would be a thing of the past.

‘We’ve been talking about the whip for 30 years and the fact is the whip is on the way out,’ he said. “There’s no other living creature on the planet you are legally allowed to hit.’

The restrictions soon had consequences as top jockey Richard Hughes threatened to hand in his jockey’s license after receiving two bans in less than a week. However, he did not follow through with the threat and won the British Jockeys Championships the following season.

The permitted number of uses of the whip with hands off the reins was restricted to seven times for Flat races and eight times for Jumps race in Britain.

Riders could only carry a specifically designed and approved energy absorbing whip.

This whip has cushioning and does not inflict nearly as much pain as the old whip did although it does make a loud noise. The use of this standardised whip is also compulsory in South Africa.

However, welfare groups want the whip banned completely and the petition Care 2 started three years ago in the USA was an eye opener in how racing outsiders view the whip.

They said, “The whip is used in horse racing to beat horses towards the end of the race when they’re tired or sore and want to slow down. This is cruel and inhumane. Yet, the horse racing industry gets away with it. Just like the bullhook, the whip is another torture device for animals. During Victor Espinoza’s ride on American Pharoah in the Kentucky Derby, he hit the horse 32 times with his whip.”

In horseracing mad Australia a poll was conducted on whether the whip should be banned and the results were interesting. Of people who never attended racing 90% said it should be banned, of those who attended once or twice a year 77% said it should be banned, those who attended more than monthly but less than weekly the figure was 47% and those who attended more than weekly it was 31%. These figures appear to show how detrimental to the sports image the whip is and with administrators around the world attempting to win new fans to the races the whip regulations probably need to be revisited.

The whip might help a horse on occasion, but is often detrimental to its cause. The best riders in the world know how to use it correctly and this is summed up by legendary South African jockey Michael “Muis” Roberts. He said he would usually give a horse a few light taps to test the response and if it was positive he would whip more freely, but would otherwise use it sparingly or not at all. “Fillies often don’t take kindly to the whip”, he said. However, Roberts also mentioned another use for the whip which most experienced racegoers would probably regard as its most important asset: when a horse begins floundering or hanging, the changing of the whip to another hand and giving it one smack can see it changing legs and finding another gear.

Hands and heels races, mainly for claiming apprentices, are regularly held in the UK. Saturday’s race at Turffontein is a welcome innovation and will likely lead to more such races.

By David Thiselton

Pearl Tiara (Candiese Marnewick)

Crown Towers can redeem himself

Crown Towers, who left punters stunned and painfully poorer when beaten at 1-3 five weeks ago, has the chance to redeem his reputation in the Bradbury Finance Handicap at Kenilworth today.

This is the horse who Paul Lafferty said “Could be the Guineas favourite” so impressive was he when winning on debut, yet he proved unable to win a six-runner Durbanville handicap. Justin Snaith was as shocked as the horse’s backers that day but he put the defeat down to the colt being caught flat-footed in a tail wind.

Pearl Tiara (Candiese Marnewick)

Pearl Tiara (Candiese Marnewick)

Richard Fourie’s mount seems sure to maintain his record of starting favourite each time he has raced – World Sports Betting opened him at 15-10 -but Snaith has reservations and explains: “He is doing very well and I am expecting a big run but he is going to have to be as good as we think he is if he is to win this.

“He was raised three points for finishing second and he has to give 4kg and 3.5kg to the other three-year-old maiden winners (Herodotus and Capoeira). Also I have been quiet with many of my horses as I have had a lot of two-year-olds coming in.”

What Snaith means is that two-year-olds are rather like small children going to school. They pick up every bug that is going and these infections can spread to the other horses. Three-year-olds are particularly at risk whereas four and five-year-olds have had more time to develop immunity.

Herodotus and Capoeira are joint second favourites at 4-1 with Aldo Domeyer’s mount What A Joker on 9-2. However what is suggested is an each way bet on Brandenburg. He was available at 25-1 yesterday and anything like those odds could prove better value each way than taking a skimpy price about the favourite. True, the four-year-old took ten races to win his maiden but he made all the running over this trip last time and both Paddy Kruyer and Morne Winnaar are in great form.

Silvano’s Pride in the Astra Maiden is another Snaith three-year-old with losses to recover. She started favourite at Durbanville on the same day as Crown Towers but she ran on too late. It looked as if Fourie had given her too much to do – how could you write such sacrilege, he will say! – but the stipes report’ reveals that his path was blocked for several strides at a crucial stage approaching the furlong marker. She is 2-1 favourite here and is preferred to both the badly drawn Star Fighter and Vomandla.

In the last there is precious little to choose between the main Snaith hope Minona and Cantata. The latter was caught on the line ten days ago and is marginally preferred.

In the Samson Foundation Maiden (race two) 18-10 favourite Almost Captured may have come on enough to account for 28-10 shot Au Revoir who returned from a lengthy absence to run well at Durbanville on Matchem day.

By Michael Clower

Noble Secret (JC Photographics)

Noble Secret can cause an upset

The Grade 2 Peermont Emperors Palace Charity Mile to be run this Saturday on Turffontein Standside has gained a reputation for upsets and in the last six renewals only one winner has started in single figure odds.

The reason for this is likely due to the race being used by a few as a stepping stone into the Summer Cup and this year there looks to be a couple of value runners who could upset the applecart again.

The favourite is Noble Secret and according to trends he does not make appeal at around 33/10 as he looks to have the Summer Cup as his chief target. However, this classy sort will surely go close carrying just 55kg from a plum draw as he will be coming into his own and does not face a vintage field.

The next in the betting is Matador Man whose optimum trip is a mile so he ticks one important box as this is his likely chief mission. His Turffontein Standside record is dismal without a single place in seven starts. However, he has been prepared where he is happiest this year, in KZN, and comes off a superb win at Greyville. He is drawn in pole and will likely sit off the pace and with a nice galloping weight of 56kg it’s just a question again of whether he can reproduce his Greyville form.

Noble Secret (JC Photographics)

Noble Secret (JC Photographics)

The third favourite is Coral Fever. Last year he ran well in the Victory Moon Stakes in his second run of the season and this will be his second run of the season here so he could surprise. He was staying on very well in the Spring Challenge over 1450m and much prefers the Standside track with its long straight so this much improved horse can’t be written off despite having to carry 61kg from draw 14 as he has class and is ultra consistent.

The fourth favourite at 7/1 is the winner of two years ago New Predator, who was a close fourth last year. He has been off form but has consequently come down the merit ratings and carries 3kg less than he did two years ago. However, he has quite a tough draw of eleven and might not be quite the same horse he once was.

The fifth favourite is last year’s winner Hat Puntano, who carries the same weight as last year and is drawn one wider in eight if the reserves come out. He did not enjoy the best preparation last year either, but his reappearance this season after a nine month break in the Spring Challenge was too lacklustre for him to be fancied here.

Champagne Haze is next in the betting. He won over 1600m early in his career but since then it has become apparent he is better up to 1400m.

Tilbury Fort at odds of 16/1 is an interesting contender as he responded to gelding last season by reeling off two good wins in succession over this course and distance, so goes well fresh and this is his first outing of the season. However, he does have a tricky draw of nine and the handicapper might have caught up with him.

Captain Aldo is a specialist 1400m horse so is hard to fancy here.

Full Mast had to overcome quite a wide draw in the Spring Challenge to go handy, but his stride was shortening late and he now has an even wider draw over 1600m.

Doosra looked promising early in his career but became disappointing, although blinkers have livened him up and he is in good form. However, it is questionable whether he is good enough to win this race.

Romany Prince showed his class when winning the KZN Breeders Million Mile carrying 60kg and he needed his last run. He is a miler and has landed what by trends is just about a perfect draw of six, so he should be in the shake up carrying 55,5kg.

Social Order finished second last year carrying 52kg and now carries 55kg and is drawn ten as opposed to two. He is suited to the Standside track and ran a good recent preparation race, but the Summer Cup is likely his aim as this is just his second run of the season.

Bulleting Home has a plum draw and is one to consider as he has never quite fulfilled his potential and a mile is his best trip. However, his lacklustre last run over 1400m, his third run after a year long layoff, was a touch off putting.

Unagi comes off a good preparation but has a tough draw and appears better on the Inside track.

Infamous Fox is an improved sort who reeled off four on the trot last season and he needed his last outing when a touch strong in the running before moving up well and fading. Unfortunately he has a tough draw to overcome.

Arctica is the joint biggest outsider but represents fair value as he had no luck in running last time out and now has a good draw and carries just 53kg with in form Ryan Munger up.

The three top horses in the betting should be in the mix, and the value contenders look to be Arctica and Romany Prince. Infamous Fox would have been included if it were not for his tough draw.

By David Thiselton

Oh Susanna (Candiese Marnewick)

Gallop a decider for Oh Susanna

Oh Susanna may begin her campaign in a mares and fillies Pinnacle at Kenilworth on 15 November after comfortably coming out on top in a 1 400m gallop at the Cape Town course on Saturday morning.

The Sun Met winner was ridden by Richard Fourie in the work-out and went with 20-1 Summer Cup hope Made To Conquer (Athandiwe Mgudlwa) and Elusive Silva (Robert Khathi).

Oh Susanna (Candiese Marnewick)

Oh Susanna (Candiese Marnewick)

Justin Snaith said: “It was a good first gallop of the season for all three of them. I want to get a couple of races into Oh Susanna as she hasn’t had much racing this year and Natal didn’t suit her. She didn’t like the fast tracks at Summerveld and it was very crowded there. She didn’t enjoy that either.

“I will see how she comes out of this gallop but I will nominate her for the Pinnacle and I might well have a dip at that.”

The mile race could be a hot affair as the unbeaten Hashtagyolo is on course for it and Brave Move may also be in the line-up.

Front And Centre, ante-post favourite for last Saturday’s big fillies race until being scratched with an abnormal blood count early the previous morning, will run in an MR 88 handicap on 21 November.

Brett Crawford said: “The blood count was abnormal enough to cause concern and one thing I have learnt is that if you go into a Group race not 100% you will always come off second best. There is time to get another race into Front And Centre before the Fillies Guineas (15 December) and in the MR 88 handicap she will receive her full wfa allowance.”

By Michael Clower