David Thiselton

Sectional timing is available for everybody to study and the best place to view it is on the Gallop website (https://www.gallop.co.za/fixtures/fixtureIframeLink).

Those who can master it might well be in the pound seats, but it is not easy to make head or tail of the statistics and probably requires a lot of experience. Colour coding does make identifying the fastest three horses in each section very easy.

However, there is the odd stand out and a race that looks to fall into that category is the maiden win of the Mike and Mathew de Kock-trained What A Winter colt Buddy Boy.

This three-year-old drew away to win his maiden by six lengths at Hollywoodbets Scottsville on September 14 when stepped up to 1600m second time out.

It was visually impressive but the first signal that he might have been flattered was when Mathew de Kock said in an interview before his next start at Hollywoodbets Greyville over 1600m on Sunday that he had been “whacked” by the handicapper, who awarded him a 90 merit rating.

The De Kock yard would not normally say that about a horse whom they were earmarking for a race like the Gr 1 Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas, so this prompted a look at the sectional timing data.

There seemed to be some immediately obvious conclusions that could be drawn about that race from the sectional timing statistic available.

The first noticeable statistic was that Buddy Boy’s 400 to finish time was 24.364 seconds and the runner up Green Glow’s 400 to finish time was 24.741 seconds.

Only two of the other horses managed a 400 to finish time of below 26 seconds and one of them just scraped below on 25.936.

The signs were there that the pace had been too fast for this standard of race and Buddy Boy and Green Glow had been the only two horses able to stay on.

While, Green Glow had appeared to run on extremely well from an almost tailed off position, from where he clearly looked to be outpaced, the statistics showed him to just be passing slowing down horses and the winner actually finished faster than him.

Buddy Boy came from seventh place at the 400m and whilst looking to pull way impressively, the statistics showed him to be drawing away from slowing horses. Green Glow did make some inroads in the last 100m, but Buddy Boy was possibly being eased up at that stage.

A look at the following race over 1600m confirms the first suspicions.

SunnyBills Ferrari was the pacemaker in Buddy Boy’s race and ran from the start to the 1000m mark in 34.113, whilst the winner of the B Stakes race in the next race, Officer In Command, ran it in 35.363, while Buddy Boy ran it in 35.119.

Officer In Command’s finishing time was 35.685 compared to Buddy Boy’s 36.717 and SunnyBills Ferrari’s 38.688.

The going was soft on the day, so Buddy Boy proved himself no slouch by running the same overall time as the 85 rated older horse Officer In Command carrying the same weight.

However, a look at races in similar conditions shows Officer In Command’s time and performance to actually be below par. It was also a small five horse field, which tends to lead to slower times, and was in fact the first time he had been finished in the frame for nearly a year.

So, Buddy Boy’s time could not have been viewed as exceptional.

Coupled with the fact that the sectional timing statistics showed him to be beating horses who had not performed efficiently at all, the alarm bells should have been ringing.

It is always easy to talk in retrospect and this article should have been written before Sunday’s races, but sectional timing is still a new discipline in SA racing and this article is intended to inspire punters to make use of it.

Ultimately there looked to be two potentially false favourites on Sunday, Green Glow and Buddy Boy, as both were flattered by the bare result of that previous race.

On Sunday they duly finished a 1,10 length second at odds of 2/1 and a a two length fifth at odds of 15/10 respectively, both races over the same 1600m trip.

The Hollywoodbets Greyville times are subject to inspection, because the races are not over an exact distance and are carded as over “about 1600m” etc. This is due to a limitation in moving the starting stalls back or forward to cater for the false rail positioning. This must be taken into account when the sectional times are looked at and the wise can possibly get an edge by looking at the statistic “distance covered per sections” as it could tell the story of why some times are faster or slower than others in different meetings and a slower time could actually be a better performance.

A close inspection of weight turnarounds revealed a very interesting hypothesis in an open A Stakes over 1000m at Hollywoodbets Durbanville today but the scratching of Dean Street may have left the way open for Arctic Wizard.

The pair came together just over a month ago over this course and distance when Dean Street finished second, 0,5 lengths behind Arctic Wizard. He will have met Arctic Wizard on 3kg better terms but that is now history. Un Bel Di was in that same race and was safely behind the pair and despite a useful 2,5kg claim from apprentice Jacey Botes, he might still have something to find. But, it goes a little deeper than that. Kaiboy beat Dean Street when they met by 1,25 lengths back in July and Kaiboy has not been seen since so he has a query about his fitness.

Arctic Wizard is still relatively untapped and possibly moving towards his peak now having just turned four-years-old. He surely has a stakes win in the locker.

Raven Black and Ziyasha are the most interesting runners in the race. Raven Black has been bereft with soundness issues. He is six-years-old and having only his seventh career start. Trainer James Crawford praises his natural ability and is of the opinion if he had no problems, he would be among the elite South African sprinters.

Ziyasha had a profitable Cape summer last season claiming the Bantry Bay Stakes over 1000m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth, toppling some big names in the process. This is his seasonal debut so he will likely step forward with the run under the belt. Calvin Habib is reported to be sticking with him in Cape Town through the summer with Sean Veale likely choosing I Am Giant.

One of the most exciting three-year-olds in the country runs in race nine over 1250m. Gimmie Rules is a full brother to Gimme A Prince, Gimmie’s Countess and The Real Prince. He won his debut looking every bit as promising as his siblings did early in their careers. His second start came over this course and distance and he ran into serious traffic on the inside fence to finish sixth behind dead heat pair What A Fortune and Saudi Cat. Trainer Dean Kannemeyer and jockey Craig Zackey sing this horses’ praises. He is likely to make his presence felt this season and he should make amends here.

Two potentially smart maidens lock horns in race 1 over 1250m. Objet D’Art and Fox On The Run return from finishing runner-up in their most recent starts. They seem to have plenty of potential to kick on. Keep an eye out for first timer, Close Encounter. 

There are a few plots and plot twists in race 2 over 1250m. Freedom Fighter put up a smart debut in May behind Intensity who featured with promise in a Grade 1 subsequently. Freedom Fighter finished second, a length behind. If she does not need the run desperately, she could win for the in-form Chad Little-Glen Kotzen combination. Madra Rua was touted to be high quality before her mediocre debut. The daughter of Frankel is surely worth another chance. Sliver Of Sunshine went the opposite way. She was not expected to thrill on debut but she stayed on smartly to finish a pleasing fourth. All three runners are worth considering.

There is not much form to get excited about in an apprentice event, race 3 over 1600m. Clouds Clearing tries this trip for the first time and she gets Brevan Plaatjies aboard. To recommend that she has watertight winning form would be a stretch but she at least has shown hints of being able to exit the maidens. Chickasaw is no imposing sort and she could be the main threat despite a recent excusable effort behind Mighty Mary. She too tries 1600m for the first time. Impressive Hong Kong visitor, Nichola Yuen takes the ride.

For now, Wander Dune has a reputation that precedes her. She won her debut emphatically but then turned over by Girl Like Us who is a fair handicapper. Old cliches like a younger filly against older, more grizzled veterans spring to mind so she is worth a few more chances. She is tipped to win race 4 over 1500m. 

Viva La Vida looks to have a bit of class about her and she cannot be faulted. Her last win came at the expense of Wish List who is surely a Grade 1 candidate. She has every chance of being a huge danger to Wander Dune.

Apprentice Trent Mayhew partners Winteronthegreen in race 5 over 1000m. This is not an event to invest the rent money on but her form has remained consistent and she takes on a very shallow field. She has not been seen since June so fitness must be taken on trust but nothing jumps off the page to suggest they are a winner in waiting.

There is something to like about Du Maurier. She was turned over at short odds last time by Country Time but she gives the impression that she is still wet behind the ears and still getting the hang of racing. If she has plenty more to come she could develop into a fair filly with some wins in the tank. Jacey Botes takes the ride for Candice Bass in race 7 over 1250m.

Artiste has been campaigning with credit at a higher level and she could come back to winning ways in race 8 over 1250m. She has also been off since June but she has hinted that she has something to come. Just turned four, she could be coming towards the peak of her career and even if she does not win, she could be a nice horse to follow over the next few months.

RACE 1

4 FOX ON THE RUN finished his race off beautifully on debut behind Gold Giboski, he was green early, and he stayed on strongly to finish second, there is absolutely no doubt that he will improve quite a bit going into his second run on Wednesday, from a neat draw, he will be very hard to beat here. 1 OBJET D’ ART ran a lovely race last time at Hollywoodbets Durbanville, he stayed on nicely for second behind Demanding Dave, he has a good draw, and he is improving, he will be right there in the finish. 7 FAST TRAIN stayed on well for fifth on debut, he was only beaten just over five lengths at the line, he will be running on strongly late, include him into all bets. 11 SOMMERSTERN will need lots of luck in running from a wide draw, he has run two decent races in succession, if the gaps open at the right time, he could sneak into the Quartet at a decent price. (Brandon Bailey: 4 – 1 – 7 – 11)

RACE 2

3 MADRA RUA has been rested for 170 days, he found lots of betting support on debut when he finished just over five lengths behind Happy Verse up the straight at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth, he is a lovely colt that will improve nicely with racing, if he doesn’t need the run badly on Wednesday, he will go very close to winning from a good draw. 4 FREEDOM FIGHTER has been rested for 165 days, he stayed on well for second on debut behind Intensity at Hollywoodbets Greyville, he shortened quite a bit in the market as well, if he has made the necessary improvement and he handles the track of Hollywoodbets Durbanville, he will be competitive. 6 SLIVER OF SUNSHINE caught the eye late on debut behind Siriano, he flashed up to run fourth and was only beaten just over three lengths at the line, he should improve, include him into all bets. 10 UMZINGELI WENYATHI has been rested and gelded, he is very consistent, it will be his first run in the Western Cape at Hollywoodbets Durbanville, watch him closely, he is a nice horse that will keep improving. (Brandon Bailey: 3 – 4 – 6 – 10)

RACE 3

2 CLOUDS CLEARING must have a solid each way chance in this race, she ran a nice race for fourth behind Might Mary on the 7th of September at Hollywoodbets Durbanville, she now steps up in trip to 1600m, and she gets the services of champion apprentice Brevan Plaatjies in the saddle, from a good draw, she will run a cracker. 8 LA PATRONA could be the value horse in this tricky race, she stayed on nicely late behind Sesame on the 13th of September, she was still very green and managed to hit the line strongly for sixth, unfortunately the tricky draw here will make life tough for her, if she gets herself into a good position early, she will be running on strongly, include her into all bets. 10 ALESSIA ASHEVILLE never runs a bad race, she is well tried in the maiden ranks, on her best form, she can certainly finish in the money. 9 RED STATE ran a good race behind Sesame last time, she ran third and was beaten just over three lengths by the winner, if she can build on that performance from a wide draw, she will have a winning chance. Go wide, it’s a tough race. (Brandon Bailey: 2 – 8 – 10 – 9)

RACE 4

1 VIVA LA VIDA has been rested for 63 days, she won a cracking race last time at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth, it got very tight for her up the straight, and she still managed to win well, there is no doubt that she is talented, if she doesn’t need the run on Wednesday, she will go very close to winning again from a neat draw. 6 WANDER DUNE could be anything, she is extremely well-bred, she ran a great race behind Girl Like Us on the 30th of August over 1250m at Hollywoodbets Durbanville, she will love the step up in trip to 1500m, with some luck in running, she will go close to winning. 3 BERRY’S BOOGIE has been rested for 263 days, she is much better than her recent performance behind I’m So Pritti in the Listed Olympic Duel Stakes on the 25th of January, if she enjoys the step up in trip and she doesn’t need her run back from a long break, she could certainly make her presence felt from a nice draw. 7 DIAMOND BOMBER ran a fair race last time, she stayed on strongly for fourth behind Stormwatch on the 7th of September, she has no weight on her back for this race, she could sneak into the Quartet at a big price. (Brandon Bailey: 1 – 6 – 3 – 7)

RACE 5

7 AVIGNON showed plenty speed to win a great race at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on the 21st of May, he has been rested for 147 days, if the apprentice can bounce him out the gates and get him into a good position early from a tricky draw, he could certainly win again. 1 EASY LIVING must have a good each way chance from a neat draw, she ran fifth last time behind Country Time on the 3rd of September, she has dropped even further in the ratings, and she gets 2,5kgs off the back from the apprentice claim, she could be right there in the finish at a nice price. 4 WINTERONTHEGREEN has been rested for 120 days, she has run two fair races in succession up the straight at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth, if she doesn’t need the run on Wednesday, she could easily trouble them late. 9 COUNTRY TIME will need lots of luck in running from a wide draw, she was disappointing from a wide draw last time at Hollywoodbets Durbanville on the 27th of September, if the race works out for her, she always has a winning chance at this level. (Brandon Bailey: 7 – 1 – 4 – 9)

RACE 6

4 KAIBOY has been rested for 97 days, he is a talented sprinter with tons of ability, he quickened up in devastating style to win well on the 10th of July at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth, even though he has gone up in the ratings, he gets 4kgs off the back from the apprentice claim, and he has a nice draw, he will go close to winning. 7 ARCTIC WIZARD won a terrific race after gelding at Hollywoodbets Durbanville on the 13th of September, the yard thinks highly of this individual, he was given five points for his impressive victory, if he can beat the draw, he will have a good winning chance. 5 MAI SENSATION has been rested for 102 days, she is a classy filly with tons of ability, she had a successful KwaZulu-Natal campaign, if she is anywhere near ready to full fitness after a lengthy break, she can win a race like this quite easily. 8 DEAN STREET is as honest as they come, he never runs a bad race, and he tries hard, he finished a good second behind Arctic Wizard on the 13th of September, if he can beat the tricky draw here, he could certainly finish in the money. (Brandon Bailey: 4 – 7 – 5 – 8)

RACE 7

4 DU MAURIER finished like a train for second behind Country Time at Hollywoodbets Durbanville on the 3rd of September, she has a good draw for this race, and she gets 2,5kgs off the back from the apprentice claim, she will be just in behind the speed early, and she will be low flying late, if the race works out for her, she will be tough to beat. 6 EASY MONEY is so consistent, she stayed on well for second behind Miss New York on the 22nd of September, she is gutsy, and she tries hard, she must have a good each way chance again. 3 MISS NEW YORK won a terrific race last time, she flew home to win by just under one length, she was given three points for that victory, the apprentice takes off 4kgs, from a neat draw, she will go close to winning again. 7 QUEEN REGENT got her head down at exactly the right time to win a good race on the 9th of September, the form of that race has worked out well, she is still improving, with some luck in running from a tricky draw on Wednesday, she will be competitive out of the maidens. (Brandon Bailey: 4 – 6 – 3 – 7)

RACE 8

6 FESTIVAL CHIC ran a great race in the Grade 3 Diana Stakes on the 27th of September, she finished just under three lengths behind She’s My World, she is a decent filly with lots of potential, now that she drops back in trip, she must have a good winning chance. 2 ARTISTE has been rested for 111 days, her last two runs in Johannesburg have been very good, if she doesn’t need the run back from a break, she will be right there in the finish from a good draw. 7 PAPILLON BLUE had absolutely no luck last time, she ran a great race behind Arctic Wizard at Hollywoodbets Durbanville on the 13th of September, she would have needed that run as well from a small break, if the race works out for her on Wednesday, she could certainly make them all work for victory. 10 NORDIC QUEST will need lots of luck in running from a bad draw, she has been rested for 63 days, she ran a good race behind Elusive Winter on the 13th of August, she was doing some good work late for third, watch her closely, she will be running on strongly. (Brandon Bailey: 6 – 2 – 7 – 10)

RACE 9

6 GIMMIE RULES flashed up to run a super race behind What A Fortune on the 22nd of September at Hollywoodbets Durbanville, he had no luck up the straight and still managed to finish just under three lengths behind the winner, he is a serious colt with tons of ability, from a neat draw, he will be hard to beat. 9 CHURCHILLIAN has been rested and gelded, he is a lovely horse with a great action, the yard thinks highly of this individual, he stayed on well for third behind Escarpment on the 15th of July at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth, if he doesn’t need the run badly after a long break, he will go close in the finish. 10 OCTOBER STORM tried really hard last time, he ran a great race for second behind Steadfast in a driving finish, he is a quality colt that keeps improving with every run, if he can beat the draw, he will run a top race again. 7 SPIRIT stayed on well for fourth behind Major Master on the 9th of September, he was only beaten just under two lengths in a warm race, he should love the drop in trip, and he has no weight on his back, watch him closely at a decent price. (Brandon Bailey: 6 – 9 – 10 – 7)

 

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