David Thiselton
The outside rail is in by ten metres in the races down the straight at the Vaal meeting today and there is a ten metre spur at the 600m mark and this structure has favoured low draws in the past, although recently it has been more favourable to the low numbers when the rail is in by 14m, so at 10m the first two races need to be monitored before a draw bias can be said to be present.
The highest rated race is a MR 90 Handicap over 1500m and Zanthar is an interesting runner here as he has a possibly favaourable low draw and has not only come down to a competitive merit rating but also has in-form 2,5kg claimer Girish Samo-Burthia aboard. Last time out over 1200m at Turffontein Inside he was caught a touch wide and was beaten a respectable 4,30 lengths by the promising three-year-old Miami Mountain with Graded performers Charming Cheetah, Zalatoris and Aristotle splitting them. He should have come on from that run and will appreciate the step up in trip. If the high draws turn out to not be unfavourable then Zanthar’s Mike Azzie-trained stablemate Deception Pass could be in the mix if repeating his last start when beaten just a neck by Palace Prince over 1450m, although this Ideal World gelding is none too reliable. Jordan would prefer further but has some class and was not disgraced over 1600m last time. This is also his second run of the season, so he should have come on from that last run and he has a potentially favourable number one draw. The topweight Presley comes off a good run over 1400m and two winners have come out of that race already. He has a high draw but Gavin Lerena is up and will give him every chance. Dylan’s Champ is in good form and is distance suited and drawn in the middle, so should be in the shake up.
In the first leg of the Pick 6, a Maiden Plate over 1400m, Wayne made a cracking debut over 1200m in September and should appreciate the step up in trip so looks hard to beat here from draw one with Gavin Lerena up as both of the horses who beat him in the aforementioned race, Miami Mountain and Trajanus, have come out and won since. Amandla Ngawethu has run well in his last three races and from a low draw this improving sort should be right there. Arizona Magic has not been disgraced in three decent maidens but does have a very high draw. If high draws are not unfavourable he should be in the shake up. Battle Of The Bulge showed big improvement last time and if confirming it could earn. First-timer Go Johnny Go is by Gimmethegreenlight out of a Listed-winning Jet Master mare who is out of the Equus Champion broodmare Mystic Spring, so he is an interesting runner on debut.
In the second leg of the Pick 6, Trident King was beaten 3,20 lengths by Arlington Action over this 2400m trip last time and is now 3kg better off, so there should not be much in it and he is given the vote. Arlington Action won well over this trip of 2400m last time in a Classified Stakes race and now has a plum draw. Cartagena was beaten 2,50 lengths in that race and faces Arlington Action on the same terms. Cartagena is a progressive sort and has won over this trip before, so should be involved in the finish with Craig Zackey now taking the ride. Sky Pillar Rock went close over 2000m last time and is out of a Galileo mare, so should enjoy this step up in trip. Chabal won easily over 2000m last time and being by Gimmethegreenlight out of a Duke Of Marmalade mare who won twice, over 1800m and 2000m respectively, he is also a lively contender in a race where all five of the aforementioned horses would have to be included in the Pick 6.
The fifth race over 1000m is also wide open. Lonely As A Cloud had a tricky draw of six out of eight last time on the Turffontein Inside track and before that was unfavourably drawn over 1000m on the Vaal Classic track in draw two, so was not disgraced in either start and now from draw four of eight should be involved. In The Ether is an honest distances-suited mare who has a form chance. Michael Faraday would find this too sharp on form, but he could be well handicapped having once been rated as high as 91 in Cape Town and having won once on the Highveld in four starts to put him on a 69 rating. He disappointed over 1450m last time and is now tried with blinkers, which he has only worn twice before over 1400m and 1200m without great success. Tiger Storm has the form to be a contender off a merit rating that has come down considerably. Oriental Bouquet continues to disappoint but could earn from draw one.
In the sixth over 1200m Ice Dragon impressed in his winning debut and 86 does not look to be an unreasonable mark. The form has not worked out well at all, but the manner of the victory gave reason to believe he could amount to something. Vibe SA is capable of better than his last two starts and from draw five out of ten over an ideal trip should be thereabouts. Antonio Gaudi went close over this trip last time and from number one draw cold be in the shake up. Secret Chord has talent and over this trip might get away with a seven month layoff. Turbo Power has a nice low draw and his recent form could see him earning again.
In the last race over 1600m Sunshine Day has a good form chance especially as she has a nice low draw. Vava Vegas ran well over 1800m last time and is interesting over this trip running off a seven point lower mark than her last win. Blurred Vision has come down to an eye-catching merit rating and from a nice low draw should be a big runner. Commander Of All is drawn one and has the form to be a contender. Madame Pompadour is in fine form over this trip and if high draws are not disadvantageous she could be in the shake up.
In the first race over 1000m Slender Silhouette comes from good formlines and from a middle draw might prove hard to beat.
In the second over 1000m Emerald Forge has a potentially tough high draw and returns from a five-and-half month layoff, but she had good juvenile form and could still make a bold bid. Kortvandraad was not disgraced in seven starts in Cape Town and considering the strength of the form there she has a good chance. Varachino’s Champ by Soqrat is a full-sister to the Listed winner I Salute You and she should be respected especially if money comes for her.
