David Thiselton
The Gr 3 Post Merchants will be one of the most interesting races on Hollywoodbets Durban July day, but the conditions of the race mean the highest rated horses are ostensibly slung in.
The highest rated horse in the land, the 132-rated twice Gr 1-winning sprinter Buffalo Storm Cody, is thus very well in at the weights, and second best in is Dave The King, who is the most interesting runner, followed by Tenango and Princess Of Gaul, who are joint third best in.
The race has merit-rated band conditions with one key difference.
Usually the horses that are higher rated than the highest band are allotted half-a-kilogram for every point they are above that highest band.
However, the highest band in this case reads “122 or more … 62kg”.
That band would normally read 122 to 126 and under the normal rules for merit-rated band events Buffalo Storm Cody would be carrying 65kg as he is six points higher than the top rating of the highest band. So, he is ostensibly 3kg well in carrying 62kg.
Dave The King would normally be carrying 63kg, but carries 62kg, so is 1kg better off than normal, but is 2kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody.
Tenango is merit rated 126, so he is top of what the band would normally be, but is officially 3kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody.
Equally well treated with the latter is the crack filly Princess Of Gaul, who is 114-rated but gets a 2,5kg gender allowance.
The worry about Buffalo Storm Cody is that he might be using it as a preparation for the Gr 1 Mercury Sprint, which he appeared to do last year because last year he only ran a 1,65 length fourth in this race carrying 56kg, meaning he was 5,5kg better off than weight for age with the highest rated runner, and he then came out and won the weight for age Mercury Sprint over the same course and distance by 1,60 lengths. Interestingly he jumped from draw 9 in the Mercury, the same draw he has in this year’s Post Merchants. This horse does appear at his best around the turn. Richard Fourie up is a bonus.
Dave The King is interesting, because although his best form is over a mile and middle distances he went at a blistering gallop in the L’Ormarins King’s Plate. It was a ridiculous pace, but he displayed his speed around the turn in that race as he went through the first 400m in a time just 1,7 seconds slower than the pacemaker and the winner of the Gr 1 World Pool Cape Flying Championship over 1000m. He has had four starts over 1200m in his career and won three of them easily and his only loss was when returning from a layoff and having a seasonal reappearance preparation run and running just 2,65 lengths behind former Post Merchants winner, the now 127-rated Gladatorian. Dave The King has drawn seven which should give him room to go to the front if quick enough and the latter is actually a concern, because of course leading over 1200m is a different ball game to leading over 1600m.
Tenango ran a good 1,95 length seventh in the Gr 2 Golden Horse Sprint, where he carried topweight. That should have brought him on for this race and he has a plum draw of five. Keagan de Melo is contracted to part-owner Laurence Wernars and takes the ride here having not ridden him in the Golden Horse. He will likely be all out to win this race as the Mercury will be a lot tougher, although he did show his class and course and distance suitability by finishing a fine second in the latter race last year, despite jumping from draw 13. Tenango looks to be a massive runner.
Princess Of Gaul is also a big runner carrying just 55,5kg and jumping from draw three under Craig Zackey. She won the Gr 2 World Pool With Race Coast Debutante over course and distance last year in just her second career start. Last time out she showed he class over this trip by finishing just 2,60 lengths behind Asiye Phambili and Double Grand Slam in the Gr 1 SA Fillies Sprint. If the latter pair were in the Merchants they would likely be the two favourites so with Princess Of Gaul beaten by that margin under weight for age conditions and now being 4kg better off than weight for age conditions with the first three mentioned she should also be a massive runner.
Cafe Culture is a former winner of this race, but is officially 4kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody and has a tough draw of 13, but he should be kicking on if managing to find cover in a handy position.
One of the joint topweights is the 122-rated Outlaw King, who is thus officially 5kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody. However, he is ultra courageous and often defies the official weights, as he did when a 1.05 length third in the Cape Flying. His last run in the Golden Horse is best ignored as he stumbled at the start.
Cats Pajamas is also rated 122 and has a fine course and distance record and was just a 1,75 length fourth in the Mercury last year. However, he has the widest draw of all.
Speedman is rated only 105 and carrying 54kg is officially 6kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody, but he is an up and coming sort who could prove better than rated, so he is the dark horse.
One Eye On Vegas was third in the Golden Horse and finds himself officially 4,5kg under sufferance with Buffalo Storm Cody, but he is a progressive sort with speed and class so should be running on from draw 11.
Jet Force is also a classy sort who could surprise dropped down in trip. He is 4,5kg under sufferance with Buffalo, but is well drawn.
Jerusalema Rain beat Buffalo Storm Cody by a neck in the Gr 2 Senor Santa over 1160m, but is now 4kg worse off.
The ones mentioned are the ones who make the most appeal and the selection is Buffalo Storm Cody to beat Tenango with Princess Of Gaul, Speedman and Jet Force next best.
