The Grade 3 Victory Moon Stakes over 1800m to be run at Turffontein Standside on Thursday night is a difficult race to assess as it is run under merit rated band conditions and also includes penalties and allowances and it involves exposed horses, some of whom will want to be leaving something in reserve for the Summer Cup.

Takingthepeace is the best weighted horse according to official merit ratings, although she is only 0,5kg better off with Sabina’s Dynasty, Zouaves is 1kg under sufferance with Takingthepeace, Cash Time is 1,5kg under sufferance, Bankable Teddy is 2kg under sufferance, Arctica is 2kg under sufferance but carries 0,5kg overweight, Bulleting Home and French Navy are 2,5kg under sufferance, Gambado is 3kg under sufferance, Like A Panther, Dawn Assault and Deo Juvente are all 3,5kg under sufferance and Liege, Full Mast and Tandava are all 4kg under sufferance.

Sabina’s Dynasty has the advantage of pole position and Piere Strydom, who knows her well, aboard. She is 4kg better off with Dawn Assault for a one length beating over 2000m on the Inside track so should reverse the form.

Geoff Woodruff admitted not being quite sure whether Zouaves would stay the trip. He is by Sail From Seattle, who won up to 1400m, and although his dam is by Jallad his female line is generally quite speedy. His five wins have been from 1160m to 1450m but he was staying on strongly last time over 1475m in the Grand Heritage series race when just failing. Woodruff said he would be ridden “quietly” by Marco van Rensburg and a draw of five should allow him to find cover.

His stablemate Deo Juvente is a seven-year-old but looks four, according to Woodruff. On ability he is the one to beat considering he won the Grade 1 Premier’s Champions Challenge over 2000m at this course, beating the like of Legal Eagle and Nother Russia. He was rested after that race but then became “very sick” when campaigning in Cape Town and his high merit rating also made it tough for him. However, he has dropped from 116 down to 103 and in his last start he was staying on in eyecatching style over this trip on the Inside track. Woodruff confirmed Deo Juvente was on and upward trend and he will be looking to book his place in the Summer Cup. He has a tricky draw of nine but has overcome tough draws before.

Bulleting Home did not find much extra in the Charity Mile but he should be cherry ripe having his third run of the season and he might be looking for this trip these days. Anton Marcus is aboard which is an obvious bonus.

His Sean Tarry-trained stablemate Liege ran below par in this race last year, finishing only tenth, but went on to win the Summer Cup. There will be no pressure on him to qualify for the Summer Cup and this run will likely bring him to his peak, although he could still earn.

Stablemate French Navy has not won for three years and will need to improve on his recent showings, despite being well weighted on his best form and well drawn.

Like A Panther is an imposing horse with a big stride and a lot of class. He disappointed in the SA Derby but began his four-year-old campaign in fine fashion when returning from a six month layoff and cruising to victory in an Assessment Plate over 1800m, where he was admittedly well weighted. He has a tough draw of 15 out of 15 but can use his long stride to eat up leeway after likely being dropped out.

Arctica was caught wide for a bit in the Charity Mile, but still managed to stay on strongly to be beaten just 0,55 lengths carrying 53kg. He has a wide draw here but has Gavin Lerena up, albeit riding 0,5kg overweight. He will be right there if the Charity Mile, run just 12 days earlier, did not take too much out of him and he will be trying to book his Summer Cup place.

His Mike Azzie-trained stablemate Full Mast was used up to overcome a wide draw in the Charity Mile and was then sent for home early so not surprisingly faded badly. He is well regarded and now has a good draw. He is by Go Deputy out of a Western Winter miler who has produced a winner over 2000m so on pedigree he should stay the trip but there could still be a stamina doubt considering his career to date.

Dawn Assault used his big stride to run away from a challenging Sabina’s Dynasty last time and he has a good record over course and distance. He is a consistent sort who has come into his own and has a chance if able to overcome his wide draw.

Tandava is capable of strong finishes from sprints up to this distance. He did not wear his usual blinkers when running on steadily in the Jubilee but now has them on. That should waken him up and he is a dark horse as he will likely be staying on strongly after being dropped out from a wide draw.

Cash Time finished fourth in the SA Derby but will need to improve on his recent form and a wide draw won’t help.

Bankable Teddy has a good draw and enjoys this course and distance so if bouncing back to form could upset.

Gambado is a big horse who won well over course and distance last time and he should have come on from that run too so has a shout if able to overcome a tough draw.

Like A Panther is taken to win it from Deo Juvente and Gambado with Arctica and Takingthepeace next best. Sabina’s Dynasty and Dawn Assault are tough to ignore and Tandava makes most appeal of the outsiders.

By David Thiselton