Surcharge, who beat all except the brilliant Hong Kong-bound Monks Hood in the Gauteng Guineas at the beginning of the month, is 28-10 favourite for Saturday week’s SA Classic despite being drawn widest of all.

Surcharge (JC Photographics)

But Royal Crusade, only a quarter of a length further back, is 11-2 with World Sports Betting to add to Mike de Kock’s fine record in the Classic. He won it with the great Horse Chestnut in 1999, Greys Inn (2004), Forest Path (2009) and Heavenly Blue last year. He has five others still in the race – 7-1 chance Noble Secret who was fourth in the Guineas, Like A Panther (8-1), Yakeen (16-1), Pietro Mascagni (25-1) and 33-1 shot Alshibaa.

Favourites have won two of the last four runnings and six of the last 16. Only three times during this period has the winner started at longer than 10-1. Kings Gambit sprang a 40-1 shock ten years ago, the Mike Bass-trained English Garden was a 16-1 chance in 2011 and Love Struck scored at 22-1 for Paul Lafferty in 2013.

De Kock’s Gauteng Fillies Guineas winner Takingthepeace is 9-2 joint second favourite with runner-up and stable companion Silver Thursday for the Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic. Since Ipi Tombe scored at odds-on in 2002 de Kock has won the race five times, most recently with Orchid Island 12 months ago.

Favourite at 4-1 is the Paul Peter-trained Folk Dance who also started favourite for the Fillies Guineas but finished only fourth after over-racing early and being caught wide. Gavin Lerena said he felt there was something amiss with her and the course vet reported the filly in post-race distress.

Favourites have won six of the last 16 runnings but only twice during that period has the winner started at longer than 12-1 – Spiced Gold was a 40-1 chance when she dead-heated with Here To Win in 2010 and two years ago Juxtapose started at 50-1.

By Michael Clower