Parachute Man has a big chance of making it three in a row in the Settlers Trophy at Durbanville tomorrow.
Normally you would bet against a horse who is attempting to defy the handicappers like this – and Greg Cheyne’s mount has been raised 4.5kg for his last two wins – but there are grounds for believing that he is still quite well treated.
He finished nearly two lengths in front of Seize The Throne in the Winter Derby and they again meet at levels. He beat Arezzo a length last month and gives him the same half kilo.
“He has improved and I don’t think he is badly handicapped,” says Darryl Hodgson. “Indeed he should have won the Winter Classic. He went many lengths clear and tired close home.”
What is also in favour of Hassen Adams’gelding is that the bottom four are all under sufferance albeit not by very much. His biggest negative is that the last seven favourites have all been beaten and he seems certain to head the market.
There is no common denominator amongst the weights and ages of recent winners but MJ Byleveld has won four of the last six runnings and he is again on Desert Swirl who attempts to follow the example of Sun City, the only dual winner in the past 18 years.
The five-year-old has been raised only 3kg since, not bad considering he also won the Woolavington. “He will run very well,” says Vaughan Marshall who confirms that last time’s outing over 1 400m was a prep for this.
However Justin Snaith’s pair Seize The Throne and Arezzo could prove a bigger threat because both are in form and neither is fully exposed. “I should have a good Saturday and these two both have chances,” says Snaith, bidding for his third Settlers in nine seasons. “Seize The Throne is an out-an-out stayer. Arezzo is a little under sufferance (1.5kg) but most of the good stayers are not in the race.”
Friendly Tibbs runs over this trip for the first time since last year’s Winter Derby but Piet Steyn is adamant that this should not be taken to mean a doubt about the five-year-old’s stamina – “There is no problem with the distance. He was running against Power King and Dynastic Power in that race and he was not far off them. I am also expecting a good run from Forte De Ouro who needed his last run here.”
However there are doubts about Can Cope getting the trip. Her last two wins were over 1 800m and 2 000m. “She tends to pull,” says Harold Crawford. “If Lucien can get her settled behind something she might be alright but she won’t stay if she fights.”
A Time To Kill, a half-brother to Durban July winner Dunford, tackles this distance for the first time since his well-beaten fifth in last year’s East Cape Derby and is 2kg under sufferance. But Mike Bass has won two of the last nine runnings and Grant van Niekerk is a cracking good jockey.
No horse has won this with 60g or more this century and Paddy O’Reilly’s 64.5 surely rules him out, particularly at the age of nine and after three months off.
By Michael Clower
Picture: Greg Cheyne (Liesl King)
