Notting Hill has the value

PUBLISHED: 28 March 2018

Baahir

The Vaal Outside track has a ten race meeting tomorrow and their look to be a few opportunities for punters and exotic players.

An MR 84 Handicap over 1600m is the highest rated race and the value bet of the day runs here, Notting Hill. This is a striking looking horse who now has his third run on the Highveld since moving up with the Dorrie Sham yard from Port Elizabeth. He faced a stronger field last time over 1700m and put up a bold display from the front before fading late. He would have come on from the run, will appreciate the slight step down in trip and is effectively two points lower in the merit ratings. He has a plum draw of 14 out of 14 by trends on this course. The three-year-old Ghost Town was a facile winner of his second start over this trip and could be anything, so his merit rating of 83 is reasonable and it would be no surprise to see him following up from a fair draw of eleven. Zerodarkthirty has some eyecatching form and was running on strongly in his first attempt at this trip last time in the Egoli Mile. However, he is drawn on the wrong side by trends. Those three are taken to get punters through the exotics and Notting Hill could represent good each-way value.

Baahir

Baahir

The best bet on the card could be Sirtain in the seventh, a MR 80 handicap over 1000m. This four-year-old Australian-bred by Not A Single Doubt started his career with two ordinary runs, but blinkers then turned him around and, after winning his maiden by 4,1 lengths, he won a handicap last time cosily. Both of his wins have been over this trip and he still looks to be learning so has plenty of scope for further improvement. However, Baahir has been knocking on the door since relocating to the Highveld with the Sham yard and from a high draw has a shout. Copper Jay disappointed last time in a minor feature but if bouncing back to the form of his maiden win could be a threat from the stands rail draw.

The meeting starts off with an interesting maiden as the R1,6 million Fort Wood colt Carbon Atom steps out. He is out of the speedy sprint-miler type Welwitschia so should have speed and is from the yard of national champion trainer Sean Tarry. However, a low draw is against him. My Boy Caloi could be the value here because on debut over 1200m he was tailed off last at one stage but then ran on well for a fair 4,15 length fifth to Affranchi. A low draw is also against him.

In the second Awayinthewoods caught the eye on debut and is drawn on the right side so will go close.

In the third Words stayed on well last time over 1600m and should be thereabouts from a high draw. However, Tortola should be included in the PAas she stayed on well last time over 1800m and the form has been franked.

In the fourth over 1600m Nuntius Oratorion has plenty of scope and this rangy type has a fair draw so should be doing his best work late.

In the sixth, Melinda’s Garden is a striking looker, being a big and athletic filly and as she looks to have found her niche over 1400m she can follow up on her last win.

The last two legs of the Pick 6 are tough but Some Song and Alphamikefoxtrot are the ones given the vote, although Picture Me will likely give a lot of cheek.

By David Thiselton