Snowdance is well-nigh impossible to oppose in tomorrow’s World Sports Betting Fillies Guineas after the way she demolished half this field in the Western Cape Fillies Championship.
True, she has an extra furlong to travel and Justin Snaith has voiced the possibility of stamina doubts over this distance and the more testing summer course. But she did make all the running last time and apparently she doesn’t have to do it that way. “She will be just as good coming from anywhere,” Bernard Fayd’Herbe said last week.
Lady In Black (Candiese Marnewick)
There were a lot of hard luck stories behind – as Glen Kotzen pointed out in this paper yesterday – and you could certainly see some of those who suffered bad luck or interference finishing closer. But reversing the placings? Almost certainly not.
Recent history also points to Snowdance. Only once in the last seven years has the Western Cape Fillies winner been beaten in the Fillies Guineas. Two didn’t run but the other four all completed the double. In addition tomorrow’s race is a good one for favourites who have won five of the last seven runnings.
The handicappers have the four immediately below her in the racecard rated within two lengths, indicating that the outcome could be a lot closer than impression might suggest. Lady In Black (12-1) is a Grade 1 winner but 4-1 second favourite Magical Wonderland was beaten fair and square and 33-1 shot Rockin Russian has a diabolical draw.
If there is to be a shock Via Seattle at 12-1 just might provide it. Although a Port Elizabeth horse, she went to Johannesburg to stun the locals by winning the Starling Stakes at 66-1. She had Silver Thursday (12-1) a length and three-quarters behind and Mike de Kock thinks so much of that one that he has put her in the Met.
If you think Snowdance is vulnerable and too short at 13-10 but you can’t decide which one of the others to back, the sponsors will give you 6-10 the field. Snaith is evens to train the winner, Candice Bass-Robinson 7-2 with 12-1 and upwards all the others. However, and surprisingly, the winning margin is odds-on to be less than a length
WSB make Legal Eagle 12-10 favourite to become the first dual winner of the WSB Green Point Stakes since Pocket Power. The Sean Tarry star has never been beaten over a mile so it makes sense to stick with him, particularly as he ran so well on his reappearance.
Gold Standard (Liesl King)
It could well be a different story in the Sun Met over a distance at which he is vulnerable, especially given the way Edict Of Nantes won that star-studded 1 400m Pinnacle three weeks ago. Piere Strydom’s mount is 28-10 second favourite but at this stage the advantage surely still lies with the Eagle.
Gold Standard (9-1) will probably need one more run to reach his peak but 2015 winner Captain America should go close at 6-1.
The WSB Cape Merchants has not been won by a three-year-old in the past 16 years but Dutch Philip has been heavily backed and his price has tumbled from 8-1 to 9-2 favourite in the last three days. He seems sure to run well but the history of the race suggests that it is not that simple.
Search Party 12 months ago was the first winning favourite since 2001 and he was only joint favourite. In truth, the Merchants is a desperately difficult race in which to find the winner.
Cuban Emerald is suggested each way at 25-1. He won pulling up on his last start in August and Justin Snaith promptly put him away for this so that the gelding would not risk his handicap mark. It was a bold approach, one reminiscent of the great trainers of a bygone era. If he pulls it off, they will be doffing their hats from their graves.
By Michael Clower
