Make money on the ‘ponies’
PUBLISHED: September 7, 2015
Improve your chances of winning…
The answer to the oft posed question; ‘is it possible to make a living from betting on horseracing?’ would probably be ‘yes’ – provided the occupation is treated like any normal business and with equal dedication.
However, a secondary question would be whether the returns justify the time spent? The returns would likely range from extremes of handsome winning months to demoralising losing ones. Most mortals would not be able handle that sort of pressure. Therefore, the majority of serious punters view the game rather as a means towards supplementing their incomes. However, even this group seldom make a profit from punting and they would likely not need this article to remind them.
Horseracing is a viable betting medium due to the consistency of the thoroughbred. A horse losing by a length over a mile has performed 99,8% as well as the winner. The job of the handicapper is to ensure that they finish even closer next time. This makes it tougher for the punter, but also allows those who do their homework to have “an edge”. Handicappers can slip up and in South Africa they are also bound by certain conditions. This edge is what separates horseracing betting from games of chance.
“Value” is the cornerstone principle of the most successful professional punters. It is possible to work out that a horse which is paying R10 a win should actually be paying R5, because detailed form analysis reveals that it is better handicapped than its more fancied rivals. The punter who only ever backs these types will make a profit according to the theory of the law of averages. Those who believe the secret is simply to pick the winner no matter the price will likely bet on more races and their strike rates will have to be higher than the value seekers’.
Tote exotics like Jackpots and Place Accumulators are very popular and here once again value plays an important role. Punters looking for a banker who calculate that a third favourite should actually be the favourite will immediately be in the pound seats if this horse converts their confidence. Successful punters would seriously consider making such a horse a banker and if they don’t they would likely only include even bigger priced horses in the betting, having already formed the opinion that their choice will beat the two most fancied horses. Conversely, lesser punters will likely include the first and second favourites for safety’s sake. Therefore their profits will be cut considerably and once again they would likely have to win the exotics more often than the value seekers in order to match the latter’s returns.
The first few races on the card are not part of the Jackpot and Pick 6 exotics, and fittingly are also the best races on which to place win and place bets. This is simply due to the fact that in plate races like Maidens the best horses will come out on top, which is not always the case in handicaps. However, Maidens require serious study and in this regard previous race replays are a valuable tool. In South Africa race replays can be watched on www.racingassociation.co.za while KZN races can be watched on Youtube by searching for “Gold Circle Racing”. Those inexperienced horses which will likely improve in their next starts can be picked out in these replays. Furthermore, collateral form analysis in formguides like Computaform or www.gallop.co.za can enable punters to ascertain the strength of relevant Maiden races. Therefore, excellent value can often be found in these races. Recently, a horse called Antagonist finished third at odds of 75/1 when suddenly dropped down to 1000m from a string of races run over distances between 1600m and 2600m. He was sent out at odds of 45/1 in his next start, also over 1000m, on the grounds that his third place finish had occurred in a weak workrider’s event. However, the replay of the latter race told a different story. Firstly, he had jumped from an unfavourable high draw on the Vaal Inside track and at the business end had been carried even further outward by a compounding horse. He then charged home to finish 1,5 lengths back. He was now jumping from a favourable high draw at Turffonten and collateral form study revealed that this field was not much stronger. The place was paying R8,50, excellent value, and he duly ran on well for a 0,5 length second.
On the other end of the spectrum a horse called Balado started favourite for a maiden at The Vaal over 1400m about a year ago on the grounds he was trained by Sean Tarry, ridden by top workrider Lyle Hewitson, owned by Chris van Niekerk and had improved in just his third start last time out to finish a close second over this trip. However, he was already a six-year-old and the replay of that last start revealed he had had the run of the race and was a decidedly one-paced sort. Collateral form evidence suggested the previous race had been just as weak as this one. He duly finished unplaced and well beaten.
The lesson learnt from the above two examples is that a properly studied race will include analysis to some degree of every horse in the race and not just of the first few in the betting, while betting on a whim must be avoided at all costs.
In this regard the respected UK-based professional punter Alan Potts advises, “Make a plan – what races will you bet on, how many bets, what stakes and so on. The basics since I stopped being a loser have been to watch a lot, listen a little, ignore ‘inside information’, be cynical about hype and rely on my own judgement.”
Most punters probably do arrive at the course with the best laid out plans, but the majority will soon abandon them and end up off the rails.
One of the biggest recognised pitfalls is the “Pot of Gold” mentality” and tied in with this is “FOMO”, which stands for “Fear Of Missing Out.” Having taken a trifecta a punter’s mind will suddenly picture a “roughie” finishing fourth, or two of the outsiders in the aforementioned trifecta finishing one-two. Quartets and exactas are then taken and maybe swingers, all-to-comes and Pick 3s too … just in case. This sort of error will likely put undue pressure on the budget.
However, the probable biggest pitfall of all is to “chase.” A punter makes a handsome profit on Friday and later spends it with abandon. He or she arrives on Saturday with the remaining money but quickly loses it. Suddenly that spending spree is looking expensive, so he/she draws more money. However, his/her tried and tested theories now tend to go out of the window. Rather, the aim becomes to look for bets that will bring the balance back to square. Logic takes a back seat and it becomes an exercise in throwing away hard earned cash.
– David Thiselton
Snaith eyes Summer Cup
PUBLISHED: September 7, 2015
Justin Snaith eyes the Summer Cup and aims to be the first Cape Town trainer to win in 20 years…
Justin Snaith is aiming to become the first Cape Town trainer to win the Sansui Summer Cup since Mike Stewart scored with Fire Arch 20 years ago.
He is preparing both Investec Cape Derby runner-up Dynamic and Tabgold 2200 winner Ultimate Dollar for the November 28 Turffontein R2 million showpiece. Both horses travelled to his Johannesburg satellite yard from Durban as did Lineker who is being trained for the even more valuable Ready To Run Cup at the end of next month.
Snaith said: “I now have 12 horses at the satellite yard which is going very well and growing all the time. Ashleigh Hughes is in charge and she is brilliant. She used to be with Gary Alexander and then Weiho Marwing. She worked for me in the last Durban season so she now knows how I do things.”
By Michael Clower
Picture: Justin Snaith
Classy return from Same Jurisdiction
PUBLISHED: September 7, 2015
Same Jurisdiction cruised home yesterday at Scottsville and heads off to Cape Town on a high note…
Same Jurisdiction put up a magnificent performance in her seasonal reappearance at Scottsville yesterday when cruising to an effortless 2,75 length victory under Anton Marcus in a Pinnacle Stakes event over 1400m.
The four-year-old Mambo In Seattle filly will thus head off for Cape Town on a high note and her chief targets there will be the Gr 1 Klawervlei Majorca Stakes over 1600m and the Gr 1 Maine Chance Farms Paddock Stakes over 1800m.
On her last two performances, victory in the Gr 1 Jonsson Workwear Garden Province Stakes and yesterday, she is likely the best filly in the country, despite belonging to a vintage crop, a few of whom will still be racing in South Africa this season.
Same Jurisdiction started at odds of 1/3 yesterday.
The Brett Crawford-trained De Kock built on his previous good run, which followed two below par performances, to finish second. The Gavin Van Zyl- trained pair MLJet, who set a good pace, and No Worries were third and fourth respectively followed by the Howells-trained Surefire.
Later, the Paddy Lunn yard kept up their recent good form when the six-year-old Mogok gelding Mr Whatever powered to victory in a MR 90 Handicap over 1000m under 4kg claimer Akshay Balloo having been backed in over a course and distance he loves.
Meanwhile in Mauritius the seven-year-old Argentinian-bred Vettel from the Ramapatee Gujadhur stable was a surprise winner of the island’s biggest race, the Air Mauritius Maiden Cup over 2400m, under Kevin Ghunowa.
By David Thiselton
Picture: Same Jurisdiction (Nkosi Hlophe)
Hidden gem worth betting on
PUBLISHED: September 4, 2015
Sibusiso Ngalwa visited Bartab No.56 recently and published a review with Timeslive…
Durban’s curry hangouts have a tendency to shout out loud for everyone to hear. Who doesn’t know Florida Road’s House of Curries, Govender’s Original House of Curries and Britannia Hotel’s Capsicum (Red Pepper) Restaurant?
But a small pub, Bartab No 56, hidden away at The Atrium mall (formerly Overport City), might well be the city’s best-kept secret.
Not only does it serve the best curries – the venue’s samp and mutton curry special is irresistible and the briyani is up there with the best in town – but they are dirt cheap, and that applies to the drinks as well as the food.
If curry is not your thing, then the grilled hake, which comes with a generous portion of chips, is a steal at R30 a portion. A burger sells for R40.
Bartab No 56 is not your traditional restaurant. Far from it. It’s actually a sports-betting pub. But don’t let that conjure up images of a seedy, smoke-filled, dimly lit dungeon. The venue is modern, with a laid-back vibe, modern furnishings, exposed brick walls and raw-wood tables and benches. Top that with the hospitable manager and excellent service and you’ll forget you’re in the company of ageing, shabby punters.
Beers cost less than R15, and if you manage to make it in time for happy hour (between 5pm and 6pm) then expect to pay only R10.50 for a dumpie. The same costs R25 in Florida Road.
The other night I turned up for some Phuza Thursday sundowners with seven colleagues, who all agree that this is the best deal in town. A fair number of rounds and about five meals later, the bill came to a princely R560.
While Bartab might not be the kind of place to take your better half on a date, it is perfect for chilling over a few pints with friends.
NEED TO KNOW:
When to go: Around 5.30pm, after the horses have run the last race and the punters, who can be noisy, have left.
Who to take: Your cash-strapped colleagues. Loads of food and laughter, at a fraction of the amount you’d ordinarily spend.
What not to do: Pop in on your way to a dinner. Bartab’s food is irresistible.
What to drink: At those prices, as much as possible.
Whatever you do: Don’t try this spot for a romantic first date. Unless her name is Beauty.
How much do you need: R50 will get you a proper meal and a drink.
Address: Shop 56, The Atrium Mall (Overport City), Durban
– Sibusiso Ngalwa for Timeslive.co.za
*Bartab No.56 is open 7 days a week from 10am to 8pm (later on select nights).
And features include:
– a sports lounge,
– 15 HD televisions broadcasting live racing and sports,
– slot machines (5 LPM),
– full Tote facilities (11 terminals)
– with fixed odds (bookmaker) facilities coming soon (November 1)
You can contact Bartab No.56 on 031 207 5508
Same Jurisdiction’s class to tell
PUBLISHED: September 4, 2015
An action packed double header weekend in KZN with Greyville racing tonight and Scottsville on Sunday…
KZN has a much anticipated double header this weekend with eight races on the Greyville polytrack tonight and eight at Scottsville on Sunday.
Quintella in the last race is the top tip tonight as she loves the course and distance, goes very well for Keagan de Melo and has at last landed a good draw.
The other tips are Madame Justice in the first with Zaida the back up, Goodnight Nurse in the second, Roy’s Gul Gul Ha in the third, Music World in the fourth, African Fish Eagle in the fifth although Silva Hawk and Royal Zulu Guard must also be considered, Al Azraq in the sixth although he won’t be at his peak and The Tripster and Dance On Air could be back ups, and Main Submission in the seventh where Night Editor and Thunderwood must also be considered.
At Scottsville, in the first race over 1400m First Sea Lord ran a close third over this trip on the poly and the form of that race has been franked so he should have a good chance from a good draw, especially considering he ran a fair third over1600m at Scottsville before that. Protea Power has run two good races over 1200m in good fields and the same 4kg claimer remains aboard over a trip that he should handle, but this is his first run around the turn and he has a tricky draw. Secret Warning is a full brother to Tales Of Bravery and could improve on his debut where he wasn’t disgraced in a strong maiden juvenile plate.
In the second for fillies and mares over 1400m Open Your Heart has run two fair races over 1200m and should relish the step up in trip. Cakewalk has run two seconds over 1600m, including one at Scottsville when staying on well, and Anton Marcus is now up. Ravishing Luly enjoys the course and distance.
The third over 1400m should be at the mercy of the brilliant Same Jurisdiction. De Kock bounced back to form last time and is drawn in pole over a suitable trip. No Worries has won a Gr 2 over this trip before. MLJet might well be best suited to this trip and has class. Sabaha has some class too and would have needed her last start.
In the fourth over 1000m Hunting Owl is well regarded and having showed good pace over 1200m in his last two starts in good fields he is interesting with Marcus up over the minimum trip. Piano Man was unlucky over 1200m last time and is effective over this trip too.
Royalsecuritypower returns to lesser company than he has been facing and has 4kg claimer up. Sea Fever is only 1kg worse off with Hunting Owl after beating him by 0,75 lengths over 1200m and he should be running on strongly late. Captain On The Run is not overly reliable but can never be ignored and has a 4kg claimer up. Mr Whatever loves this trip and with a 4kg claimer up can’t be ignored. Big King is interesting at Scottsville for the first time over a suitable trip.
In the fifth, a maiden over 1950m, Grey’s A Rockin was held up off the pace for a change last time over course and distance and flew late so if settling better this time he has a big shout under Marcus. Barbarian has faced two good horses in his two career starts and wasn’t disgraced last time so should be a big runner over a step up in trip he will relish. Seattle Wolf has run two fair races to date and his half-brother Arniston finished 4th in the Gr 1 Investec Cape Derby so he could enjoy this trip.
The sixth is a Maiden for fillies and mares over 1950m and Roy’s Gold could improve on her last start over course and distance as it was her first time with blinkers and also just her second time around the turn. Ravishing Aromance beat Roy’s Gold last time and now has a reversal in draw fortunes in her favour too. Fly Away With Me was only quarter-of-a-length behind Roy’s Gold last time and now has Delpech up.
In the seventh over 1950m Golden High has been knocking on the door and has Delpech up over a step down in trip he will likely relish. Leeuloop Jet is only three points higher for his decent win over 2000m at the Vaal and Highveld raiders over this sort of trip are always dangerous. Flying Fellow is well drawn over a suitable course and distance and has run well off this sort of merit rating before.
In the last over 1950m the three-year-old Kitty’s Destiny has caught the eye as a progressive sort and although he doesn’t have an easy task at the weights he could possibly win first time out the maidens against an uninspiring field. Rocky Stallone raids from the Highveld and has dropped to a competitive mark. French Mark has fallen to a competitive merit rating and with a 4kg claimer up could earn here considering his only win was over 1800m.
By David Thiselton
Picture: Same Jurisdiction (Nkosi Hlophe)