The Gr 3 Cartier Politician Stakes over 1800m will form an important leg of the expected R2,4 million Pick 6 at Saturday’s big L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate meeting and this traditional pointer to the GR 1 Investec Cape Derby is full of intrigue.

Rabada (Nkosi Hlophe)

The Mike Azzie-trained Gr 1-winner Rabada is the best in at the weights on official merit ratings, despite having to lug 62kg. However, Markus Jooste’s racing manager Derek Brugman was unhappy that, due to an administrative veterinary hitch related to African Horse Sickness regulations, Rabada had only been able to leave Randjesfontein for Cape Town on Tuesday this week. He travelled well and was “fit and well”, but Brugman did not know what to expect as the horse would obviously have less time to recover from the 18 hour journey than they would have liked. Brugman added Rabada had proved “in need of the run” when beaten three lengths into second in the R2,5 million CTS Ready To Run Cup over 1400m at Turffontein, “through no fault of anybody’s as he was thought to be fit enough.” That was his seasonal reappearance and his first career defeat. He subsequently missed his engagement in the Gr 1 Grand Parade cape Guineas due to a bout of pharyngitis, which he has fully recovered from. He has a plum draw of two.

Unexposed horses often emerge as leading lights from the Politician Stakes and one such candidate is the Justin Snaith-trained Silvano colt Black Arthur. He has only had three starts to date and on the evidence of his last start when repelling when repelling the decent sort Mambo Mime on the Old Course 1600m, he will relish both the step up in trip of the Politician Stakes and the longer straight of the New Course. He was receiving 5kg from Mambo Mime, but took a while to get going, and at the line was pulling clear effortlessly. The weights are set by merit rated band and on the downside Black Arthur’s is not officially well weighted, and he is widely drawn too, but he looks capable of rising well above his current 90 merit rating and Piere Strydom is aboard.

Snaith stable jockey Bernard Fayd’Herbe is aboard Star Chestnut, probably due to the weight of 58,5kg, but he does have pole position and on the evidence of his 4,4 length ninth in the Gr 1 Grand Parade Cape Guineas, he should enjoy the step up in trip as he was staying on nicely from well back in the running.

Star Chestnut (Nkosi Hlophe)

Another stablemate Baritone, who is officially 2kg better off with Black Arthur as he carries 57kg off a 94 merit rating, had the run of the Cape Guineas from pole position and stayed on well for a 2,2 length sixth. Gavin Lerena will be aboard and this Trippi colt should also enjoy the step up in trip, being out of a Singspiel mare who won the Gr 3 Jubilee Handicap over 1800m at Turffontein.

The last of the Snaith runners is the More Than Ready gelding More Than Grand, a progressive sort who won over course and distance last time when using his big stride to stay on resolutely. He is merit rated only 81 and carrying 54kg, meaning he is 7kg out with Rabada, but he looks to have scope and is one of the dark horses.

A horse who will definitely love the trip, and further, is the Dean Kannemeyer-trained Cape Speed, who was a touch disappointing in a MR 85 handicap over 1600m against older horses last time as he was unable to produce any telling acceleration in the straight and was beaten over seven lengths by Milton. Before that he had looked a most promising Derby prospect. That last outing was his second run after a layoff and he will prefer this trip, so he can’t be written off just yet.

The form of Cape Speed’s last race points to the Mike Bass-trained Marinaresco having a chance here as he finished close to Milton at level weights over 1400m and will likely love this trip.

The other Bass-trained contender, Tin Soldier, won full of running over 1600m last time out and being by Silvano should be improving all the time

The Sean Tarry-trained Liege had genuine excuses for his two below par Cape Town runs and he could therefore end up being the best value price in the field as he has shown before why he is so well regarded and he will enjoy the trip.

The Mike de Kock-trained Mooghamir is well regarded and on the up and showed tremendous resolve when winning his first Cape Town start over this course and distance. He has similar form to that which De Kock’s 2015 Cape Derby winner Ertijaal had at this time last year.

Mooghamir holds Nebula and Eastern Charm on that last run. Kemal Kavur will find it tough as a front-running type from a wide draw. Solar Night is widely drawn and looks held on his overall form.

By David Thiselton

Captain America has been one of the most supported horses for Saturday’s big race at Kenilworth, the R1 million weight for age Gr 1 L’Ormarin’s Queen’s Plate over 1600m, shortening in from 7/1 to 11/2 with Betting World and he is at that same price with World Sports Betting, but his chances of beating his former stablemate Futura, who has remained steady as 2/1 favourite, don’t look bright on paper.

Captain America (Liesl King)

The big son of Captain Al will attempt to keep the fine run of the Brett Crawford yard in this prestigious race going. Crawford finished second with Jackson in both 2013 and 2014, behind only the mighty Variety Club, before winning it last year with Futura. The latter is likely still the apple of his eye as he took him from maiden through the ranks to a Queen’s Plate and J&B Met double. However, the superstar subsequently left his yard due to a well documented dispute between the owners.

Futura looks to be the horse to beat again as he looks to have had a faultless preparation for top trainer Justin Snaith, who guided the brilliant Dynasty entire to a fourth career Gr 1, the Champions Cup over 1800m at GReyville, after taking over the reins from Crawford.

Captain America beat Futura at level weights in the Gr2 Lanzerac Alta Mater Green Point Stakes over 1600m on the tighter Kenilworth Old Course last time out in November, but is unlikely to be allowed the same easy lead he had in that race. Futura was closing fast, losing by just half-a-length. Both horses will have benefitted from the run. Futura had previously beaten Captain America twice, in the 2014 Vodacom Durban July, when finishing third, and in the 2014 Green Point Stakes, when also third.

Captain America would love some rain and according to the forecast might be getting 3mm on all of today, tomorrow and Saturday. However, that would likely not be enough to swing it in his favour as the ground is still likely to be fast, which is just the way Futura loves it.

The Green Point did at least show that Captain America settled well in front, which allowed him to quicken superbly rounding the final turn. Therefore, it would be no surprise to see him leading him again from a wide draw of ten. However, in doing so he might have to be used up to get ahead of the likes of Noah From Goa and Heartland inside of him as the latter pair are unlikely to be hanging around.

However, if Captain America doesn’t go to the front he is not going to have it easy slotting in, especially considering his big frame.

Futura meanwhile has a plum draw of two and will likely have a plenty in the tank in the straight before unleashing his devastating turn of foot.

It all points to Futura having the edge in this particular clash, which some might believe to be a grudge match, but as Crawford and Snaith are both sporting in victory and defeat they are unlikely to be seeing it that way themselves.

By David Thiselton

The Vaal meeting today sees a switch to the Inside Track where low draws have tended to be favourable.

In race 1, a Workrider’s maiden for fillies and mares over 1000m, Kirsten’s Pride is the choice due to the jockey booking as there is not much between her and Fair Colour on form and both are drawn on the right side. Fair Colour lost many lengths when running on Tuesday and can do better if taking her place. First-timer Storyfields is a full-sister to Atso Time, who won his first three starts over this trip, but the high draw will make it tough.

In race 2, a Maiden Plate for fillies and mares over 1000m, first-timer Nother Russia is by Tiger Ridge out of the multiple Gr 1-winner Mother Russia. First-timer Inaninstant by Silvano is a full-sister to a horse who won down the straight on debut and is a half-sister to the useful Sovereign Wood. First-timer Polyphonic is by Judpot and is a half-sister to Gr 1-winner Master Plan, but does have an unfavourable high draw. Of those to have run Spider Flower made a fair debut and has a favourable draw and Pipkin could earn.

Piere Strydom

The third is a strong event over 1200m and there will be a few scratchings as some these have been engaged in recent meetings and have won, meaning they no longer qualify for this Graduation Plate, while others might not have recovered from recent runs. New Predator looks to be full of class and could reverse earlier form over this trip with Buckland, from whom he receives 2kg. Those two will likely fight it out and Machismo could earn, while Silver Class and Negroamara could also be involved if taking their places having run on Tuesday.

The fourth is a Maiden Plate for fillies and mares over 1700m and Bondiblu has some fair form and should love the step up in trip, while Strydom up is another plus. Ultimate Survival makes appeal as he should enjoy the step up in trip and Gavin Lerena remains aboard. Tip Of The Glacier should relish the extra 100m having run on well over 1600m for second last time out. Eversilver will be a runner as long as he settles, but his wide draw is therefore a negative. Abbey Chase is interesting stepped up in trip after just one race down the straight.

The fifth is a Maiden over 1700m. Nawab could be the one to side with having found support on debut and not running badly, despite being bumped at the start and finishing lame. Furthermore, the form has worked out well. Revelation went close over course and distance last time out. Strydom remaining aboard is significant and they are drawn in pole. Grand Classic ran a fair debut over 1400m and should improve over this trip.

The sixth is a MR 84 Handicap over 1400m and Bulleting Home should follow up on his last win as he overraced in that  1600m race yet still won comfortably, so he should relish the step down in trip and can handle the eight point raise from a plum draw. Without Permission looks well handicapped on his best form and has his third run after a break over an ideal trip. Raise The Red is down to an attractive merit rating and could start firing again over an ideal trip.

In the seventh, a MR 76 Handicap over 2000m, Consider The Cat looks talented and has overcome a wide draw over this trip before. Flaming Ace has been consistent off this merit rating and should go close again over an ideal trip. Dublin Rebel is widely drawn but ran quite well in a 1600m race first time out the maidens which has worked out well and he will relish the step up in trip. Triple Beat has been knocking on the door and is well drawn over a suitable distance. Masnoon didn’t run badly last time and has been lowered to a competitive merit rating over a suitable trip.

In the eighth, a MR 68 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1200m, the talented Lena Laptev should have benefitted from her last run and is drawn ideally over a suitable trip. Wet Autumn Mist won a good race last time going away when stepped down to this trip, so could go close again off just a four point higher mark. Honolua Bay won her maiden easily and Strydom has remained faithful over the same course and distance.

In the ninth, a MR 68 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1200m, Outta My Wat is a decent sort who has dropped to a competitive merit rating and is drawn well over a suitable trip. Second Bite is off a competitive merit rating considering the blinkers brought out a form return last time out. Lady Casey can do better than last time, when her saddle slipped, and is another who looks reasonably handicapped so could do well from a favourable draw.

By David Thiselton

Gavin Lerena, the 2015 Longines International Jockeys’ Championship winner, will spend two months based at Sha Tin from late next month as part of a mid-season licensing shake-up announced on Wednesday.

As well as the recruitment of Lerena, it was revealed that Gregory Benoist will cut short his current stint and that Chad Schofield, who was licensed until February 1, will ride through until the end of this season.

Lerena (pictured), whose minimum riding weight is 122-pounds, impressed many with his skills in last month’s IJC, in which he scored wins on Mr Right and Superoi in the final two legs of the series, and he will join a long list of champion South African riders to have competed in Hong Kong throughout the years.

A winner of more than 1,300 races in his homeland, Lerena clinched the 2014-15 South African Jockeys’ Championship with 220 wins at a strike rate of 19 per cent and has won nine Group One races, including the South African Derby twice.

Lerena will find himself pitched against some hot opposition when he arrives for a stint that begins at the Citibank Hong Kong Gold Cup meeting on February 28 and stretches through to the Champions Mile fixture on May 1 – a period that also includes a host of big races, including the Stewards’ Cup and BMW Hong Kong Derby.

Also beginning this Saturday will be current British champion Silvestre de Sousa, whose licence was rubber stamped yesterday, with the Brazilian to ride through to the Stewards’ Cup meeting on January 31.

A change in contractual commitments prompted Benoist to cut short his relatively successful stay, with Al Shaqab racing upgrading his deal and requesting that the Belgian-born rider return to France to assist in the preparation of young horses for the new European season.

Schofield missed Wednesday night’s Happy Valley meeting with illness but was pleased to be continuing on full time after riding 11 winners so far and establishing himself in the top ten of the Jockeys’ Championship.

“It was always the goal to stay full time so it’s great to have it made official,” said Schofield, who expects to be back riding again on Saturday after suffering with a stomach ailment over the last few days. “I couldn’t keep anything down, I don’t know what it is, but I thought it was better to rest and be right for the weekend and make sure I was 100 per cent right to ride there.”
– South China Morning Post

Futura and Legislate dominate the market for the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate at Kenilworth on Saturday and trainer Justin Snaith says: “They are both spot on and it will take a very good horse to beat them.”

Snaith, who won the race with Gimmethegreenlight four years ago, gave last year’s winner Futura his final piece of serious work in a racecourse gallop on December 27 while Legislate went to Kenilworth two days later for his.

“Legislate galloped 1400m on his own with Bernard Fayd’Herbe riding and he was very good,” reports the former champion trainer. “His best run last year was in the Green Point after four-and-a-half months off when he broke the course record and we are replicating what we did then with him.”

Towards the end of last week Snaith got his vet to check out both horses, explaining: “I always do that and I also give them a blood test to make sure there is no haemo-concentrating because that is something that can sneak up on you.”

Futura and Legislate have met on five previous occasions and every time one of them has won. The score is 3-2 in Legislate’s favour at the moment.

– TABnews

Picture: Legislate left Futura right (John Lewis)