Carry On Alice warms up for the Betting World Cape Flying Championship in the Sceptre Stakes at the Horses For Causes meeting at Kenilworth tomorrow.

Carry On Alice (Nkosi Hlophe)

S’Manga Khumalo’s mount will be a short-priced favourite – she opened at 14-10 with World Sports Betting yesterday – and she is hard to oppose, particularly as it’s her third run after a rest and she has two and a half lengths in hand on adjusted merit ratings. Her biggest negative is the poor record of favourites in recent seasons. Cold As Ice 12 months ago was the first to win for six years.

Sean Tarry also trains the next highest-rated, Bichette, who started favourite for the Diadem three weeks ago but dropped out to finish last and is an 8-1 chance here. “She went to the outside on her own and then Exelero joined her and they cut each other’s throats,” explains the champion trainer.

Cuvee Brut finished strongly to very nearly beat Carry On Alice in the Southern Cross and will appreciate the extra furlong. Seemingly last time’s Laisserfaire disappointment is best forgotten and at 11-2 you can back her each way.

“She had 61kg but even so I thought it was a bit of a flat run,” says Brett Crawford who is bidding for his fourth Sceptre. “Our horses were going through a flat patch at the time – they weren’t running as well as they could – but they are fine now. I don’t expect Cuvee Brut to beat the favourite but she will be in the money.”

The Fly By Night who won the 2014 Mercury Sprint would have these for breakfast and Mike Bass is bidding for his third Sceptre in six seasons. She showed signs of returning to form in the Diadem but both the form book and her 8-1 price indicate that she needs to improve a bit more to win this.

Fly BY Night (Liesl King)

Real Princess is quite short at 9-2 but she was less than a length behind Tarry’s star in the Southern Cross. “She ran a great race that day and another over 1 100m in the Laisserfaire,” enthuses Dean Kannemeyer who has yet to win this. “She will love this trip – she is bred to get at least a mile.”

Princess Royal (7-1) was only inches further back in the Southern Cross and apparently has improved since. “She has come on by leaps and bounds and I have never seen her work like she did this week,” reports Glen Kotzen.

Cosmic Light, also 7-1, has an outside draw and the penetrometer readings suggest that the ground is slightly faster on the inner. However she would have been in the shake-up in the Southern Cross had she not lost ground at the start.

“The instructions to the rider were to race from off the pace and that could be why she was a bit sluggish,” Duncan Howells recalls. “She has improved since and I think she will be better suited to this trip. But it’s going to be a tough race.”

By Michael Clower

KZN has a double header this weekend with eight race cards on the Greyville poly tonight and at Scottsville on Sunday and there look to be some good opportunities to bolster the bank balance tonight.

The first tonight is a Maiden for fillies and mares over 1600m. Italian Miss will relish the step up in trip on the evidence of her decent debut over 1400m, in which she was still green, and she looks to be a class above this field.  Lizzie’s Chapel could prove perfectly suited to this trip and not only has the form to earn but Delpech has stayed aboard after she faded out over 2000m last time out. Su-pa-suta’s best runs have been from the front and the best of those were when this particular 2,5kg claimer was aboard. Roy’s Twilight was slow away on debut but caught the eye running on, although on the downside her rider has not been given many good opportunities this season and could consequently be lacking in confidence.  Chinese Whisper is improving as she strengthens and could earn.

Royal Zulu Guard (Nkosi Hlophe)

The second is a weak maiden over 1600m and Suzie’s Arrow is the one to beat having been a touch unlucky from a wide draw over course and distance last time when going outward for a run and having to continually be switched inward yet still finishing a 1,3 length fourth. The form of the race has not been bad to date and she is now drawn well with Marcus up. Tayaar is a fine specimen and has twice been backed, including last time when returning from a long layoff in a weak 1400m event. He over raced in front and stayed on quite well so is interesting here as he should have come on from the run and the penny is likely still dropping. First Apostle has the ability to win if settling, having been green and over racing on debut over 1400m, before running on quite well. Wave Raider ran on steadily from last over 1200m on the Greyville turf second time out and looks likely to appreciate the step up in trip. Dhaamer has improved for his new yard and stayed on nicely over this trip on the turf last time from pole and he now has a good draw again.

The third is a Maiden over 2000m and Soldiers Code, a Western Winter half-brother to Gr 1 Woolavington start to finish winner Viva Maria, led over 1800m last time and finished narrowly behind a good sort, so is the one to beat from a good draw in a weak field. Chesa is a big son of Ideal World who is improving and he will relish this trip. Shine Up should love the step up in trip on pedigree. Roy’s Tiger stayed on well over 1800m on turf last time despite running wide and is now better drawn. Putchini has the ability to earn if not starting to slowly and not over racing but can’t be relied on.

The fourth is a weak maiden for fillies and mares over 2000m. Pocahontas ran a cracker from the front over this trip on turf last time and is now better drawn with Delpech up. Ntokazi made a bold bid from the front last time over 1600m and similar tactics are likely from a wider draw, but on pedigree there could be a stamina doubt. Chapel House came from last for third over this trip on turf in a weak race in which they all finished on top of each other.

Master James (Nkosi Hlophe)

The fifth is a MR 76 Handicap over 1400m. Buster Brown has been a different horse since hold up tactics have been employed and having landed a good draw over his optimum trip he might run on strongly all the way to the line this time. Guy From Dubai runs off a mark 19 points lower than his sand rating, returning from a layoff over a trip short of his best, and has enough speed to dominate this from the front so will be a big threat. Peter Piper is only two points higher than his last attempt at this course and distance, where he went close, and as a handy sort his low draw is ideal. Bizjet will also be in the shake up over a suitable trip. Lighting The Fire is talented and distance suited but looks to be off a harsh merit rating.

The sixth is MR 91 handicap over 1400m. Master James has been a touch disappointing so, off a two points lowered merit rating, could pop up here dropped to a trip which on pedigree looks to be ideal. Master Archer, who has won on the poly before, ran above his merit rating on turf over this ideal trip last time and Marcus now rides. Buffalo Bull has come back down to a competitive merit rating and will be a big runner over this ideal trip.

The seventh is a MR 80 handicap over 1600m. Royal Zulu Guard is the one to beat despite a wide draw. He had nowhere to go when still having plenty in the tank in his penultimate start over this course and distance with first time blinkers on and is now five points lower in the merit ratings. Willoughton enjoys the course and distance and has pole with Marcus up. Cat In Command is competitive off his current merit rating and is course and distance suited.

The eighth is a MR 74 handicap over 1600m for fillies and mares and Alzerra can claim a KZN hattrick because on the form of her last race she still looks to be ahead of the handicapper. French Lass also attempts to remain unbeaten in KZN and is only two points higher than her last win. Vogue Idea, Crackpot and Mad Pushpa make most appeal of the rest.

By David Thiselton

Stalwart stud farm manager Pippa Mickelburgh achieved her dream of breeding the winner of the L’Ormarin’s Queen’s Plate for Avontuur Thoroughbred Farm over the weekend, courtesy of the brilliant Sean Tarry-trained Legal Eagle, and the farm staff and owners are now excitedly looking forward to next week’s CTS Cape Premier Yearling Sales as it heralds the auction debut in this country of their regal stallion Oratorio.

Mickelburgh said, “Breeding the Met or July winner would bring more coverage, but the Queen’s Plate is weight for age and attracts the best horses in the country.”

Mickelburgh’s intuition played a big part in the breeding of Legal Eagle. She said, “His dam Young Sensation’s progeny had tended to lack substance, they were quite light-framed, so I looked first to put a bit of ruggedness and coarseness into them and Grey’s Inn fitted the requirement on the physical side. Grey’s Inn’s sire Zabeel has also been known worldwide to be successful with lines of Northern Dancer and Young Sensation brought two of those lines. The computer confirmed my thoughts and assessed it to be a fantastic mating.”

Legal Eagle (Liesl King)

Avontuur have kept a relatively small band of broodmares, which was 28 and now with more space available can be increased to 35, and they are always looking to improve the band at the top end. Ironically, Legal Eagle’s dam, the National Emblem mare Young Sensation, was one of two sold to make way for retired Gr 1 winners River Jetez and Bambina Stripes, because her progenies’ performance before the arrival of Legal Eagle had not been outstanding.
Mickelburgh had no regrets about selling Young Sensation and wished the new owner all the best.

She explained, “We will continue to enjoy the success of Legal Eagle and the accolade of having bred him. It would have been nice to have a brother or sister, but ultimately it is the big races like the Queen’s Plate upon which stud farms are judged. If you look at farms like Highlands and Maine Chance, mares die, stallions change, but they just continue to have good returns year after year. It must have something to do with the pastures and the soil and the make up of the land. A good calibre of horse is being produced from the soil of Avontuur and despite having only 28 broodmares our goal is to produce one Gr 1 per year. Last season we only just failed with Cold As Ice in the Majorca and she is a great advert having stayed sound and now having won in the UK.”

Avontuur in fact had easily the highest average earnings per runner in the country last season, a highly important statistic as an indicator of quality.

Avontuur have had phenomenal success with their resident stallion Var. Oratorio will complement him perfectly.
Mickelburgh said, “People say Danehill’s sons can produce X, Y or Z but Oratorio is producing, big strong, powerful horses with good hindquarters, and I think their biggest attribute will be their durability. He is producing Gr 1 and Gr 2 winners at the age of 6 and 8. Therefore his progeny must be sound and tough and they can obviously handle their racing. If you want an 800m winner or Scottsville two-year-old Gr 1 winner, he is not for you, but he is our hope of producing a July or a Met winner. He is the opposite of Var.”

Mickelburgh pointed out that Australia’s sale of Oratorio should not be seen as a negative, because the entire life of a stallion in that country was based on speed and precocity due to the nature of their racing program.

She pointed out “High Chaparal, Rock Of Gibraltar, and the biggest one of all, Galileo, were all dismissed from Australia. By the time Oratorio was sold he was already producing three-year-old and four-year-old Group winners in Europe.”

Mickelburgh regards Lot 134, Ancestry, out of Gr 3-winning Windrush mare A Daughter’s Legacy, as her favourite Oratorio colt on the CPYS Sale.

“He has a lovely head and neck and is very strong.”

His filly which has attracted most attention is Lot 29, Hot Chocolate, out of Gr 2-winning Silvano mare Mochachino, who is from a popular family, but Mickelburgh’s personal favourite is Lot 25, Seraphic, out of the Var mare Menorah. “She is the jewel in the crown,” she said.

Mickelburgh concluded, “Var’s draft is outstanding too and of course we’re not forgetting him but this is Oratorio’s time.”

By David Thiselton

The meeting at the Vaal today is on the Inside track meaning low draws will be favoured in all races, according to trends.

The first is a Workrider’s Maiden over 2000m and Jackies Joy should appreciate the step up in trip on pedigree and has a classy rider aboard. Kelly Firth is course and distance suited, and also comes from good formlines, while his good draw and an in-form rider aboard are further plusses. Cup Bearer did well over this distance from a wide draw at Turffontein last time and is now drawn in pole.

The second is MR 85 Handicap for filllies and mares over 1200m and it’s a tough one to assess but Lady Al could be the one to side with as her normal slow start shouldn’t be much of a disadvantage in a field of this size and she is drawn on the right side off a lowered merit rating. Tiger’s Touch is 1,5kg worse off with Lady Al having beaten her by 1,2 lengths over 1160m last time and the tactical nous of Gavin Lerena should give her a chance of following up. Easy Street has a chance if bouncing back from her last start when something appeared to be amiss.

Piere Strydom

The third is a Maiden over 1400m for fillies and mares and  For Show Me Angel is reunited with Piere Strydom who did well on her over 1200m in her penultimate and they have a fair draw. Uproar should be running on and might be able to overcome the high draw by being dropped out. Miss Wales should be improving so can do better than her last slightly disappointing run over this trip.

The fourth is a Maiden for fillies and mares over 1400m and South Atlantic made a decent debut over 1200m and will appreciate the step up in trip so could reverse form with Runa long, who doesn’t look to have as much scope and there has now been a reversal in draw fortunes. Runalong has first-time blinkers on in a weak field over a suitable course and distance with Gavin Lerena up so should be thereabouts again. Spring Indeed could improve on her debut effort.

The fifth is a Novice Plate over 1400m and should be at the mercy of Rikitikitana who has plenty of class and is having his third run on the Highveld over a trip he enjoys. Duke Nukem is the danger over his optimum trip, but it’s a concern he’s made breathing noises in his last three. King’s Archer could earn over a suitable trip from a good draw.

The sixth is a Maiden over 1700m and Smartifact looks the one to side with as he has run well in both career starts despite being found to have coughed both times. The progressive Hermoso Mundo will be running on from a good draw and looks the only danger. Chestnut Charlie has not been disgraced in two races which have worked out well and is likely to love the step up in trip.

The seventh is a MR 72 Handicap over 1700m and the penny is still dropping with the unbeaten His Legacy who will appreciate the step up in trip and as a horse who is going places could make it three from three from a good draw under Lerena. Gentleman Only is distance suited and drawn well. Street Flyer has been competitive off this merit rating and is well drawn over a trip he should stay.

The eighth is a MR 75 handicap over 2400m and Silver Matador makes appeal back in a handicap having run above his merit rating in a Pinnacle event last time over this trip at Turffontein.

The ninth is a Maiden over 2400m and Go Fly A Kite looks likely to be distance suited and Lerena is up. Yours And Mine will also enjoy the trip and there is not much between him and the first choice on the evidence of their last clash.

By David Thiselton

There are two Dubai Carnival meetings this week and Mike de Kock will saddle runners at both.

At Meydan on tomorrow, Alareef (Sam Hitchcott) has been entered for Race 1, the Mina Rashid over 1600m on dirt. A South African-bred by Stronghold, the five-year-old’s formline shows four places from five starts in Dubai, but he faded right out to trail in 21 lengths behind Stormardal in a handicap on New Year’s Day and De Kock said: “That was a very disappointing run I just can’t explain because Alareef is physically fine.

“I can’t predict with any measure of accuracy how he will perform in the Mina Rashid but we’ll be hoping for improvement. We’re removing his tongue-tie, perhaps the change of gear will make a difference.”

Sheikh Hamdan’s Australian-bred filly, Almashooqa (Paul Hanagan), makes her Dubai debut in Race 2, the UAE 1000 Guineas Trial over 1400m on dirt, sponsored by DP World.

Forries Waltz (Nkosi Hlophe)

The stable’s Ad Idem was beaten a short-head by top class Local Time in this race last year and De Kock commented: “I’d consider Al Mashooqa in the league of Ad Idem, perhaps even better. She is the second-highest rated filly in the race, but she is one of ours that had to travel from South Africa. She’s only been in training here six weeks or so, we have her probably 80-85% fit, but she is by successful sand sire Bernardini and should take to the dirt.  It’s a decent field, trainer Doug Watson has a filly that won by a distance here first time out, but we’ll be crossing fingers for a good run from Al Mashooqa.”

Another older stable stalwart, Mujaarib (Hanagan), will go to post in the Listed Singspiel Stakes over 1800m on turf.  The now seven-year-old raced three times in good company last season, but did seem a little lacklustre and De Kock said: “Mujaarib is in better form than he was last year. He’s a happy horse, he’s got running in him and he likes to race fresh. When he arrived here two seasons ago he surprised us winning first time out winning a Group 2 race so you never know, we’re keen to see how he goes.”

Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum and partners’ Forries Waltz (Christophe Soumillon) and Rock Cocktail (Wayne Smith) are two very capable form runners in a competitive handicap over 1600 on turf that closes the Thursday meeting. Mike spoke highly of both, saying: “They were among our South African travellers last year and as we’ve see with some of them, they take some time to settle in. They were some way off their best in their handful of runs last year.

“From what I’ve seen so far this term, Forries Waltz and Rock Cocktail are in a better frame of mind and their work has been good, better than last year. I’m expecting both to run well with a preference for Forries Waltz.”

There are two De Kock runners in Meydan’s opener on Saturday. Baroot (Wayne Smith) and Jununee (Dane O’Neill) will be lining up in a Maiden Plate over 1900m on dirt. Mike assessed: “Baroot ran on well over 1400m last time, if he stays the distance I fancy he can fight it out. Jununee shows us nothing at home.”

– www.mikedekockracing.com