The Vaughan Marshall-trained Exelero’s excellent victory in the Pinnacle Stakes race over 1200m at Scottsville on Sunday under Anton Marcus might have had more of an influence on the Gr 1 Tsogo Sun Sprint than first meets the eye, because he defied the Pietermaritzburg course’s infamous draw bias. Marcus also won an earlier race over 1000m from an outside draw on Omega Onslaught and then Muzi Yeni made it a hattrick for sprint event outside draws when winning a 1200m event on the Duncan Howells-trained Elusivenchantment.

The far side rail is at present five metres further in than usual and the jockeys, according to both track manager Sthembiso Dlamini and top rider Muzi Yeni, are “loving it.”

It was not only the draw numbers which were significant on Sunday, but the path the horses travelled. All three of the winners stuck to their stations for virtually the entire race.

Marcus believes the best thing that can happen to Scottsville is to keep the rail out there. He advocated keeping it there for the big Festival Of Speed meeting even if this meant a reduction in field sizes. In his belief the draw bias at Scottsville is largely due to perception and it has become vital to alter this perception.

History has shown as soon as the rail is moved back to its original position, the horses flock like sheep back to the inside. Ironically one reason for this might be due to the moving of the rail inward in the first place, because of the fresh ground it creates.

However, it is more far reaching than that and Muzi Yeni’s opinion revealed why the operators appear to be caught in a catch 22 situation.

Yeni believed in normal Scottsville events, outside drawn horses tend to be used up early by rushing to the inside. However, without the need to do so yesterday they were conserving energy by staying straight.

However, asked whether jockeys would revert to the inside when the rail is back to normal, he replied, “Of course.”

Yeni explained, whether there was an actual draw bias or not, there was a deeply ingrained perception of a draw bias.

Horses are pack animals so like to run in a bunch. Furthermore, wherever “the speed of the race is” there is more opportunity to use slipstreaming, so it would be foolish to stay on your own out wide.

The problem might be compounded by the track becoming compacted on the inside. However, on the other hand it does become cut up and uneven, so this explanation has its flaws.

The final factor, and Yeni has not been the first to say it, is the responsibilities jockeys have towards their clients.

Yeni said trainers do not specifically instruct jockeys to go to the inside. However, if they return to the parade ring having stayed on the outside, questions will be asked unless the horse had won. After all, everybody in racing knows that “you have to go to the inside to win at Scottsville, so what on earth was this jockey’s thinking.”

In fact on one occasion a Scottsville course manager approached a detractor triumphantly after a horse had won on the outside. The response of, “It would have won by ten lengths if it had been on the inside” showed just what a hiding to nothing the course managers and operators are on regarding this issue.

Most straight courses around the world have a draw bias, but unlike Scottsville it usually varies from meeting to meeting, so the problem is not compounded.

In fact, there have been days in the fairly recent past when Scottsville had a palpable advantage on the outside. Such a day was at the Festival Of Speed meeting in 2010.

Another course where the perception of a draw bias is beginning to become deeply ingrained is the Vaal. On the outside track jockeys tend to stick to the outside and on the inside track they stick to the inside.

Commentator Alistair Cohen is one prominent racing industry man who believes no bias actually exists, or at least on the outside track he believes it doesn’t.

Scottsville course manager Sthembiso Dlamini was delighted by Sunday’s results and the jockeys positive feedback.

However, even he is pessimistic about anything changing once the far rail is moved back to its original position for the April 27 meeting.

He said, “It’s not so much there is a draw bias as the jockeys use the rail as a guide. But we hope in big fields they will use the whole track.”

He said placing the bank of stalls on the outside rail for smaller fields had been tried before, but “did not work” because at about the 600m mark everybody headed towards the inside anyway.

Meanwhile, Exelero has probably booked his place in the Tsogo Sun Sprint field as the handicappers have raised him from a 97 merit rating to a 103. This five-year-old Western Winter gelding has had a big reputation since day one of his career. However, he was disappointing overall until, firstly, blinkers were fitted, and secondly, he was stepped back to the 1200m trip. He has won three races over 1200m this season, although he did fail twice when stepped up to Gr 2 class.

The Dean Kannemeyer-trained Captain Alfredo and the Craig Eudey-trained Flyfirstclass weren’t disgraced on Sunday 1,25 lengths and 1,5 lengths back respectively, considering they both gave the winner 1,5kg.

The disappointment of the race was the Michael Roberts-trained three-year-old favourite Natal, but he was reported fatigued and coughing so this was not his race and he can bounce back.

By David Thiselton

Durban July hero Stuart Randolph will be at Kenilworth on Saturday for seven rides, notably Cape Classic winner Eighth Wonder in the Tekkie Town Winter Guineas.

Greg Ennion, who has booked Randolph for three other mounts, said: “Eighth Wonder needs to be settled and Stuart knows the horse because he rode him in the Investec Cape Derby.”

Joey Ramsden, who has won two of the last four Winter Guineas with class horses Variety Club and Act Of War, runs the top rated Hard Day’s Night (Donovan Dillon) as well as Mr Wise Guy (Gareth Wright). With 16 runners, it’s the biggest Winter Guineas field for at least 15 years.

Anthony Delpech has five rides for Justin Snaith (as well as one for Glen Puller) including Ready To Attack in the Winter Guineas. Last year’s Langerman winner will be boosted if this week’s forecast rain materialises.  He is rated only a kilo behind Hard Day’s Night and receives that amount.

Raymond Danielson is another visiting jockey, riding Streak Of Silver for Eric Sands in the big race, the Brett Crawford-trained Midnite Zone and two for Paddy Kruyer – Anglet in the RTT Sweet Chestnut and probably favourite Mega Secret in the last.

By Michael Clower

Picture: Stuart Randolph (Nkosi Hlophe)

Inara, 6-1 second favourite for Saturday week’s Champions Challenge after her decisive win in last Saturday’s Empress Club Stakes, is unlikely to run.

Mike Bass said yesterday: “I still have to discuss it with Kevin Sommerville but I’m not sure that she will run. She has gone back to Durban – she left after the race because I thought it better to get her out of there as quickly as possible so there was no time to acclimatise.”

Bass confirmed that his Cape Fillies Guineas winner and CTS Million Dollar runner-up Silver Mountain will run next in the Daisy Fillies Guineas at Greyville on May 6, adding: “She is doing very well.”

World Sports Betting makes Legal Eagle 7-10 for Turffontein’s R4 million showpiece with stable companion French Navy on 8-1. Brazuca and Captain America are 10-1 chances.

Abashiri is a prohibitive 1-3 to complete the Triple Crown in the SA Derby. Samurai Blade (5-1) and Jubilee Line (8-1) are the only others quoted at less than 16-1.

World Sports Betting, which now sponsors the Computaform Sprint on the same card, has installed Carry On Alice favourite at 22-10 and goes 11-2 Triptease, 8-1 Guiness and 10-1 bar.

By Michael Clower

The Vodacom Durban July entries were announced at the South African Champions Season launch at Greyville last Thursday and punters and pundits immediately began speculating, while fashionistas were thinking along different lines as the July theme “Leader Of The Pack” was emphasised.

Legal Eagle and Abashiri are the standouts in terms of class and both have the potential to become greats. The term great is over used but true greats have been popping up regularly all over the world these days.

Smart Call, rated sixth best horse in the world after her Maine Chance Paddock Stakes and J&B Met romps, has departed the country. This leaves Legal Eagle as the top merit rated horse on 120. However, without the chance to exact revenge on Smart Call, he will have to go some to be regarded as “great”.

However, he recently added the Gr 1 HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes to his Gr 1 L’Ormarin’s Queen’s Plate win, proving himself the country’s best miler. He has already proved he stays the July trip, having won the SA Derby in impressive style last year. However, the downside to his July chances are his failure to win the big race last year when weighted off a merit rating of 112. On the upside he suffered interference in the straight which affected his momentum and, but for that, he could possibly have won.

In the past, great horses like Politician have failed as three-year-olds with light weights before coming back to win it with topweight the following year. Interestingly, Legal Eagle finished fifth in his three-year-old year, the same position Politician managed. In the Rising Sun Gold Challenge, Legal Eagle will attempt to emulate Politician by winning three Gr 1 weight for age miles in his four-year-old year. He will deserve a mention alongside the great milers if he does it. If he also wins either the Premier’s Champions Challenge or the July, or both, he will probably deserve the unconditional title “great”.

Abashiri is on the cusp of becoming the third horse to win the Triple Crown. His SA Classic win was breathtaking and possibly the best performance Turffontein had seen since Horse Chestnut cantered home by close to ten lengths in the SA Derby in 1999. Three-year-olds have been a force in the July since the merit rating system began. In previous years they appear to have battled to make it into the field, presumably due to the high race figures of the older horses. London News, for example, was the only three-year-old in the field when winning it in 1996 and so was his father Bush Telegraph when winning it in 1987.

Many of the best older horses these days are campaigning overseas, so the days of “a three-year-old cannot win with that weight” are over. Bold Silvano won it with 55,5kg in 2010, the filly Igugu won it with 55kg in 2011, Pomodoro won it with 55kg in 2012 and Legislate won it with 56kg in 2014.

As things stand, Abashiri would have to carry 56,5kg and has impressed as one who is up to such a task if taking his place. The maximum weight a three-year-old is allowed to carry, according to the conditions, is 57kg, unless he or she is the highest net merit rated horse. His or her weight in the latter case would likely have to be dragged upward, although the handicappers still have the right to handicap the race at their sole discretion. Abashiri would have to come into the race with a 125 merit rating, as things stand, to have the highest net merit rating. This is an unlikely scenario considering he is weighted to romp home in the SA Derby.

The SA Champions Season often unearths a three-year-old who arrives in KZN relatively unknown and such a horse could be Baritone. He finished a running on short-head second in the Byerley Turk over 1400m, despite giving 4kg to the winner Mambo Mime. As an immature sort who is progressing all the time, and as one who will much prefer the 1600m trip of the Gr 2 Canon Guineas as well as the 2000m trip of the Daily News 2000, he could establish himself as a top July contender in the next couple of months.

Well handicapped older horses also have to be respected and Deo Juvente off a merit rating of 106 makes appeal because as things stand he will sneak in with the minimum weight for an older horse of 53kg and that would be his actual handicap weight anyway. He looks to have the potential to rise above that rating.

The crack three-year-old filly Silver Mountain as things stand would only be required to carry 53kg so has to be respected too.

It will be tough for connections of the best horses to avoid the lure of the July, despite its longstanding reputation as an ultra tough race which can take a lot out of a horse, because the stake now stands at R4,25 million.

The false rail will be a maximum of one metre this year to encourage horses to use the whole width of the straight, which is considerably narrower since the building of the polytrack in 2014.

The well thought out July theme, “Leader Of The Pack”, brings the suits of cards into play which is fitting. Hearts will both reflect passion and the international colour of the year, red. Diamonds are for the glitz and glamour of the July, Spades are for all the hard work which goes into organising it and Clubs are for the clubbing crowds, who flock to the event these days. “Leader” applies to the July’s standing as the greatest race in Africa.

Fashion designers will have plenty to work with and will be hard at work because this is one of the most important events on the fashion calendar and offers the opportunity for young designers to break into the big time.

By David Thiselton

Brutal Force will miss the rest of the season after recovering from a life-threatening attack of colic last week.

Joey Ramsden said: “He got the colic in Jo’burg last Monday night and his gut was trapped between the rib cage and the liver. It was serious – apparently it is one of the worst types of colic there is.

“Fortunately the vets were able to pull out the trapped gut without having to cut it and the horse returned to the yard on Saturday.

“He is looking a bit sorry for himself but otherwise he is OK. He will be out of action for four months.”

The four-year-old, beaten only a head by Gulf Storm in the Betting World Cape Flying Championship on Met day, was in Johannesburg being prepared for a tilt at Saturday week’s World Sports Betting Computaform Sprint.

By Michael Clower

Picture: Brutal Force (Liesl King)