Woodhill Racing Estate-based Glen Kotzen expects this filly, Party Crasher, to go close in a Novice Plate over 1200m at Durbanville on Saturday.

This classy Philanthropist filly is the latest racing progeny of the outstanding mare First Arrival. Her full-brother is lot 95 on the CTS Ready To Run Sale, which takes place at Durbanville on Saturday evening.

Party Crasher is one of Kotzen’s hopefuls for the Cape Summer Of Champions Season. He said, “She is a proper filly. We would have preferred it to be over 1400m on Saturday, but if she wins she will go for the Choice Carriers.”

Party Crasher was green on debut over the Durbanville 1200m. She ran around in the straight after turning for home near the back and clearly did not know what it was all about. Greg Cheyne eventually switched her outward well away from the pack. When he asked the question she displayed an instant turn of foot and cantered past the leaders in nonchalant style. She won going away by 1,25 lengths with ears pricked. Her odds of 6/1 were generous in retrospect. It was not the strongest of fields, but there is clearly a lot more to come.

Kotzen was the underbidder for the Hallmark Thoroughbreds-bred Party Crasher at the National Yearling Sales last year. She went for R650,000, snapped up by the outstanding breeders, Varsfontein Stud, who obviously recognised her ready-made paddock value. Party Crasher is a half-sister to the like of Gr 1 winners Let’s Rock’n Roll, In The Fast Lane and Rock The Country, and to Gr 2 winner Light The Lights.

Kotzen asked the Kalmansons of Varsfontein if he could train her. As trainer of Light The Lights, he was the natural choice. Light The Lights, by Western Winter, was a late maturing sort and also needed the gelding which was only done after he had turned four-years of age. He finally fulfilled his potential when sauntering home in the Gr 2 Peninsula Handicap over 1800m at Kenilworth on L’Ormarin’s Queen’s Plate day this year. He followed that with an excellent 4,8 length fourth in this year’s J&B Met, despite being the joint worst weighted horse in the field on official merit ratings.

The quality of that performance was stamped in no uncertain terms when he was bought into the Mike de Kock yard and put on the next overseas float. He is currently being prepared out of Abington Place in Newmarket for next year’s Dubai Carnival. Light The Lights’ magnificent turn of foot and sustained finish had been seen early in his career, particularly in a Listed race at Fairview, which he won comfortably. His coltish issues plagued the rest of his three-year-old career, although he did manage a decent 2,5 length third to The Conglomerate in the Gr 2 KRA Guineas at Greyville last year.

Party Crasher looks a similar type. The Gr 2 Choice Carriers Championships for three-year-old fillies takes place on October 29 over 1400m on the Kenilworth winter course and it will be no surprise to see her being a leading contender.

Another promising filly in the Kotzen yard is the four-year-old Silvano filly Silvan Star. She was eye-catching as a three-year-old, but a bad draw on Met day followed by travel sickness and “foot abscess after foot abscess” in KZN saw her season severely curtailed. However, she showed her class in her seasonal reappearance on September 24 when cruising to a 2,25 length win over 1600m at Durbanville in a Novice Plate. Unfortunately, her merit rating of only 83 will make it difficult for her to get into the feature races, but she is certainly one to follow in handicaps.

Kotzen has high hopes for the four-year-old Var filly Our Destiny. She finished second at odds of 100/1 in last season’s Gr 1 WSB Cape Fillies Guineas. However, he is going to keep her to sprints this season. There are certainly a lot of opportunities for sprinting fillies during the Cape Summer.

He also rates the Trippi colt Gold Standard, whose grand dam is the great Olympic Duel. In his third start on October 5, he jumped from a wide draw over 1600m at Durbanville in a Maiden Plate and ran on strongly to win by 3,25 lengths.

Kotzen said, “Everybody was raving about Craven (who won by two lengths over the same course and distance in the next race), but Gold Standard’s time was better and he won by further.” Kotzen concluded about Gold Standard, “He is more of a Derby horse.”

David Thiselton

The debate on whether trainers are or are not obliged to give out information on their first-timers in a race has become a little touchy and when one looks at it in an unbiased way as someone who never backs these young horses, there are valid points made for either side.

To put my point in clear perspective, I have never backed a first-timer and I have never, in more than 35 years as a racing journalist, asked a trainer about any of his or her runners. I have always operated on my own form study assessment. There was one occasion when I stupidly changed my Pick 6 perm to bank a horse which, according to another journalist who “got it from the horse’s mouth” – the trainer – that it was impossible to lose. It was beaten by one of the horses I had taken out of my perm.

Trainer Sean Tarry expressed his views on the matter in a lengthy article in The Racegoer yesterday and made some valid points. However, while for a number of reasons I do not see why trainers should not comment on their runners, I would also like to caution punters not to accept those comments as gospel as there are too many factors that could play into the situation.

There has been the long-standing argument that owners spend a lot of money in buying the horses and covering the training fees and they should therefore have “first bite at the cherry” to help recover some of those costs. That is a valid point and I don’t see why they should not have that chance.

The simple fact is that the racing public will never have a chance of getting the best price even if trainers come out and say they think their runner will win. The “stable” will already have secured that and once a stable bet on a runner is placed with the bookmakers the word spreads and the official betting will show it both with the bookies and on the tote.

But, for the average punter it is not about getting the best price, it is a question of backing the winner at whatever price. Sure, they would like to get 10-1 instead of 18-10 but it is better to take the 18-10 instead of backing the 10-1 shot that loses.

Racing is not an absolute science and if one goes back over the years and sees the number of “good things” that have been beaten then one realizes that there is a lot more to racing than the opinion of the trainer. Even in races where collateral form is available, trainers have not always got it right.

As far as first-timers are concerned, I believe trainers would not be doing themselves or their patrons down by making a fair comment on their runners – something like “he’s a nice horse and is fit and working well. He is bred to go further but has shown good pace. There is a lot of talk about so-and-so’s runner but I believe my horse could run into the money.”

It is common knowledge that if a stable backs a first-timer to win they have already tried the horse against a proven horse and know that on the ability it has shown it should win its first race. They would have already secured their price before as most stables have their preferred bookie that would more than likely give them the stretched odds to obtain the information and then lay off the bet with other bookies. The word then travels like wildfire which shows when a first-timer is priced up at the first call at short odds.

The dangers of backing first-timers even if trainers comment on them are plenty and include things like the excitement and nervousness of the occasion which could see them getting worked up and sweating up or giving problems at the starting stalls or even not getting away on terms. They may not have the confidence in a bunched field or they could be too eager and do too much early.

My advice would be to watch the betting bearing in mind the comments of the trainers, see how they move to the start then pick a couple and back them for a place or as a swinger. You can’t get hurt and success will boost your confidence in your ability to pick them on their appearance, breeding, the betting and the comments of the trainers.

So Tarry is very right about the fact that punters should involve themselves fully in the game. Get the form books and study them closely and even go to the extent of studying pedigrees. It is a fascinating sport and there is nothing more rewarding than picking a winner that beats the favourite based purely on your own study and observation.

Yes, and go to the course. Study the animal in the flesh and learn to note what a fit horse looks like and how it moves as well as its temperament. These are beautiful creatures and in some ways they could tell you more than what the trainer is prepared to.

I seldom back a horse on the nose but I remember a case at Scottsville when I saw a filly in the ring. She had disappointed in another race and was not the favourite on the day in question.  But when I saw her and remembered how she had looked previously, I went straight to the tote and had the biggest win bet I have ever had on her. She won with ease.

To get back to the subject, transparency in racing is good and in this day where one can bet in a variety of ways it is not easy for a trainer to “hide” a good horse. One cannot deny that the information can leak through various channels including stable staff, jockeys and spotters.

In the end, all the punters want is a fair run for their money – and they are entitled to it.

Richard McMillan

New Predator is on the prowl for another graded-race win in the R1-million Peermont Emperors Palace Charity Mile on Saturday 5 November.

Nominations for the Charity Mile only close on Monday, but Johan Janse van Vuuren has already penciled in three horses he would like to run in the Grade 2 race and New Predator is his “main contender” at this stage, with inaugural Grand Heritage hero Irish Pride and classy filly Negroamaro in supporting roles.

“I’m hoping all three get good draws,” the Vaal-based trainer said, hinting that their participation might hinge on the ballot for barrier positions.

New Predator, who won a Maiden Plate on Charity Mile Day last year, certainly has the form to be a big runner in the 1600m race. He went on to finish a close second to Noah From Goa in the Grade 2 Dingaans on Summer Cup Day, third when not well ridden in the Grade 1 Horse Chestnut Stakes and then won the Grade 2 Drill Hall Stakes at Greyville in May.

New Predator’s run in the Daily News 2000 can easily be explained by his trainer, stating bluntly that his programme will not include the SANSUI Summer Cup or the Sun Met because “I don’t think he stays 2000m”.

His final run as a three-year-old was in the Gold Challenge in June and New Predator finished fourth behind Mac De Lago. He had his first run since then in the Grade 2 Joburg Spring Challenge over 1450m on the Turffontein Inside track last Saturday and finished strongly for third behind Kangaroo Jack.

New Predator

“I’m very happy with that run,” confirmed Janse van Vuuren. “He needed it slightly and it was slow run, which played into Kangaroo Jack’s hands. New Predator enjoys the Standside ‘mile’. He’s run three very good races there and must be a contender in the Charity Mile.”

After that, said the trainer, his plans for New Predator included a short trip to Cape Town for a Listed race in December and the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate.

Five-time winner Irish Pride, he said, “won a good race in the Grand Heritage, but on the face of it, that was only a MR 90 Handicap and the Charity Mile is not the same. He’ll enjoy the 100m extra but will have a lot more to do.”

Negroamaro, who has turned into something of a bridesmaid since winning the Grade 3 Fillies Mile on Summer Cup Day last year, will have a dual entry, in the Charity Mile and the 1800m Yellowwood Handicap (Grade 3) on the same day. Her participation in the Charity Mile is contingent on how well she fares in a Conditions Plate on Saturday next week. “We’ll see how she takes that run and how well she draws before making any decisions,” said Janse van Vuuren.

The Charity Mile is the most special race on the South African calendar because 16 charities take home a collective R1 million at the end of the meeting. Each horse in the Charity Mile is publically represented by a celebrity and runs for a nominated charity. The finishing positions determining how much each charity receives from R150,000 for first to R50,000 for the charities represented by the horses who finish further back than fourth.

TABnews

Turffontein has an intriguing eight race card today and the those who do their homework could be rewarded with some healthy exotic dividends.

The highest rated race on the card is a 2600m Pinnacle Stakes event. It is not easy to find a best bet on the card, and staying events are not usually the races to find them in, but nevertheless the Galileo colt Kinaan is the nomination. He is officially 3,5kg under sufferance with the long striding filly Zafira.

Furthermore, the latter hails from the stable of Weiho Marwing, who has an outstanding record in staying races. Lastly, Zafira is by Silvano, so should be coming into her own now as a four-year-old. Kinaan beat Zafira by 3 lengths in the Gr 2 eLan Gold Cup over 3200m and is now 3,5kg worse off, which should put the filly slightly ahead on paper over this trip.

However, there are two factors which hand the verdict to Kinaan. Firstly, he was caught wide the whole way in the Gold Cup, while the filly had the rail. Secondly, he has a good recent run under his belt over the too sharp 1450m, where he ran a surprise second at odds of 28/1. Zafira, on the other hand, is making her seasonal reappearance.

Kinaan looks to be on the up and on a card where bankers are not easy to come by he is the one who is also nominated for that award. However, the less brave should include Zafira, because another aspect in her favour is she loves this course and is unbeaten in two starts here. Kissimee is 2,5kg under sufferance with Zafira, but actually comes out ahead of her on their last meeting over 2200m in January, so she must be considered. Storm Warning beat a disappointing Kissimee by six lengths over course and distance last time and they face each other on the same terms. However, Storm Warning now has a wide draw to overcome, while Kissimee is well drawn again.

The Elmo Effect faces Storm Warning on the same terms for a mere 0,2 length beating in the aforementioned race, so has a shout again, despite officially being 5,5kg under sufferance with Zafira. Coby is not far behind The Elmo Effect and Storm Warning on the form of that last race, but has a worse draw now. Joint topweight Arch Rival can never be ignored, although he is best suited to the more galloping standside track. Penteliko has Anthony Delpech aboard over a suitable course and distance from a good draw, but looks held by like of The Elmo Effect and others.  Royal Honour and Talbec look to have impossible tasks at the weights.

The meeting opens with a very interesting maiden over 1600m. The hard knocking Fish River Canyon is proven over the course and distance and is drawn well in five. She looks to be an improving sort too. However, she up against two fillies in Orchid Island and Written who will both definitely relish this step up in trip. They will likely improve on their debuts too, having both finished like trains over 1200m on debut for respective close up placings.

Orchid Island is beautifully bred being by Silvano out of a stakes winning daughter of Ilha da Vitoria, Ilha Grande. However, she faces a tough draw of 12, so Anthony Delpech will have his work cut out. Written is by Western Winter out of a Saumarez mare and looks to have plenty of scope, being quite immature in appearance. It will be interesting to see whether experience or class decides the outcome, as the latter pair might be the better horses in the long run. However, Fish River Canyon is given the vote to beat Orchid Island and Written.

The value bet on the card comes in the seventh in the form of the Alec Laird-trained Judpot mare Endearing. This is a suitable course and distance and she is now a whopping nine points lower than her last winning mark. In her last start over 1200m she was caught wide at this course against the boys, so it was not a bad effort. She is three points lower here and is back against her own gender from a plum draw. Furthermore, she looks likely to appreciate the step up in trip as she has been staying on lately over shorter.

It’s not a fantastic field and the main danger could be Might As Well, who did well from the front last time over this trip at the Vaal and is now better drawn and two points lower in the merit ratings. The favourite might be Warm White Night Alice, who converted short odds second time out over 1200m at Scottsville on July 23. However, she showed a lot of pace there and her speedy pedigree also creates a stamina doubt, so from draw ten here in her seasonal reappearance there are question marks.

Mythical Magic will be coming into her own being by Silvano and if dropped out from a very high draw she looks a sort who has the class to turn it on in the straight. Gold Shades was not disgraced against a fair sort last time over 1400m and Piere Strydom is an eyecatching booking. Ladies Club is fairly handicapped on her best form and might be looking for this trip now, having run on well late over 1200m last time out. She can’t be ignored from a plum draw.

David Thiselton

Turffontein Thursday (inside track) Oct 13 Race Previews by David Thiselton

Race 1:

Preview: FISH RIVER CANYON has been knocking on the door and can get it right here over a suitable course and distance from a good draw. The well bred Silvano filly ORCHID ISLAND made a good debut over 1200 and should relish the step up in trip, but she does have a tough draw. WRITTEN made a good debut over 1200m and is another who will enjoy the step up in trip, so she has a chance from a fair draw with Gavin Lerena up. (David Thiselton 1-11-12)

Race 2:

Preview: SHIVERING SEA has been ultra consistent and with Gavin Lerena up has a chance, despite a tricky draw, as she is back in a handicap having run well in a Graduation Plate last time over 1200m. LEVI LADY is quick and from pole position looks capable of following up on her maiden win off a 74 merit rating. MOVIE SHOW is ideally course and distance suited and well drawn off a competitive merit rating. (David Thiselton 3-7-4)

Race 3:

Preview: SEEKING GOLD made a good debut when unfancied and showed pace in that 1450m event so should enjoy this trip from pole position. KANTARA QUEEN is by Elusive Fort and is a half-sister to Silk Road, who won his first two starts as a two-year-old at Kenilworth, so she is interesting on debut from a good draw. MALACHITE SUNBIRD had some fair Cape Town form and likely needed his Highveld debut, so Strydom is an interesting booking from a good draw. SISTINE CHAPEL made a fair debut and the form has been franked. BEING FABULOUS is an Australian-bred by High Chaparral and Gavin Lerena rides, albeit from a tough draw. (David Thiselton 10-8-1)

Race 4:

Preview: PISTOLERO is doing well off this mark and a wide draw should not be of much concern as he finishes strongly from off the pace. TOUR OF DUTY is well regarded and hasn’t been disgraced in his last two in plate events against fair opposition, so has a chance in his handicap debut. CAPTAINOFMYHEART has run well against fair opposition and can be involved provided a breathing noise he made last time does not affect his chances. (David Thiselton 11-4-3)

Race 5:

Preview: KINAAN is a useful stayer and should be involved here. He is officially 3,5kg under sufferance with Zafira, but has a recent run under his belt and beat Zafira in the Gold Cup at level weights by three lengths, which probably puts him slightly ahead here on paper. ZAFIRA is officially best in at the weights and comes from a yard known for their success over staying trips. She is unbeaten in two outings at this course and should enjoy the trip. KISSIMEE is 7kg better off with Zafira for a mere 0,8 length beating over 2450m in January. The weight for age scale has changed 4,5kg since then in Zafira’s favour, but that still puts Kissimee 2,5kg better off, so she must have a shout despite being officially 2,5kg under sufferance with Zafira. (David Thiselton 3-6-7)

Race 6:

Preview: NAVARRO should be coming into his own being by Silvano and can make amends for his last start, where he was a touch unlucky over 1600m. He likely need that last run and he will appreciate this step up in trip. STREAK appears to have his issues but is distance suited and has the ability to win this. BUBBLY REPLY won his maiden over course and distance from this same pole position draw two runs ago and ran a fair race first time out the maidens so has a chance in this uninspiring field. VICTORIOUS ROYAL has come into his own and goes well for this jockey so can go close over the course and distance of his last win. He runs on from behind so the wide draw is not much of a concern, although he is four points higher than his last win. There is not much between OLD OAK TREE and Navarro on formlines over shorter and being by Gimmethegrenlight he should also be improving. However, there might be a slight stamina question mark on pedigree. (David Thiselton 11-7-14)

Race 7:

Preview: ENDEARING, who was caught wide over 1200m against the boys last time, has dropped to an attractive merit rating and is drawn well over a suitable trip. She should be involved back against her own gender. MIGHT AS WELL made a bold bid from the front last time over this trip at the Vaal. She is now better drawn, is off a two point lower merit rating and she has run well in two starts over course and distance before, albeit both in the maidens.  MYTHICAL MAGIC ran a fair race at the end of July over 1400m from a tough draw the Vaal and could run on here into the money if dropped out from a wide draw. GOLD SHADES ran a fair race against a promising sort last time over 1400m at the Vaal and Strydom is an eye catching booking. LADIES CLUB ran on well last time over 1200m and is well dawn over a suitable trip. WARM NIGHT ALICE was backed to odds on second time out over 1200m at Scottsville and kept on well, but on pedigree and running style the trip might stretch her here especially from a wide draw after an 82 day layoff. (David Thiselton 2-8-1)

Race 8:

Preview: REFUGE showed a good turn of foot and found another gear to repel a challenge when winning over 1200m last time out. He will relish the step up in trip on pedigree and Strydom remains aboard. The high draw will make it tough but he does appear a type who can be switched on and off. DEALER’S CHARM is worth another chance dropping back to the trip of his eye catching maiden win and off a merit rating which has been lowered another two points. He has been disappointing since the maiden win so the fitting of blinkers is something else to not and he is also drawn well with Delpech up. ARPAD’s maiden win over 1400m has worked out well and he might also benefit from the drop back to this trip. He is also drawn well and has the very much in form Gavin Lerena up.  The improved KING AND EMPIRE has won well in his last two and has a chance from a good draw with stable jockey Fortune now up. Refuge comes out better than him if apprentice claims in the formlines are included,  but if they are ignored there is not much to separate them. ZEN MASTER can’t be ignored over a suitable course and distance from pole position. RAND CLUB made a fair comeback from a break of over a year when staying on well over 1200m at the beginning of last month and a repeat over this more suitable trip could see him involved. However, he has a very high draw to overcome and there is also the second run after a rest question mark. (David Thiselton 1-4-3)