Craven will start at short odds for his handicap debut at Kenilworth today and it will be a shock if he gets beaten.

This is the horse that Andrew Fortune has already committed to riding in the Cape Guineas and Derby and who was backed down to 1-4 at Durbanville three weeks ago when he won easing up with the former champion blaming himself for a bad ride.

Fortune cried off his mounts early yesterday – he wasn’t feeling well – and Brett Crawford wasted no time in snapping up Richard Fourie.

First time out of the maidens is notoriously tricky but Crawford says he has no concerns on this count, reasoning: “I think he is above average.”

A nine draw shouldn’t stop the colt and his opening 85 handicap mark is not excessive (last Saturday’s winner African Night Sky, who won on debut, was put in at 83), particularly as Fortune stopped riding 100m out and eased him before the line.

So, can anything beat him? The sahorseracing computer has him dead-heating with The Slade but One Direction (who the computer says will only finish fifth) could be a bigger threat. His record is similar to Craven’s and Justin Snaith said he could be a Derby horse after last time’s win.

Gyre was put up 1.5kg for his neck defeat of Mega Secret and is now a kilo worse. That was 35 minutes after Craven’s win and, perhaps significantly, Gyre’s time was half a second slower.

Crawford should also win the All To Come Graduation Plate with Whisky Baron who runs for the first time since failing to get the trip in the Winter Derby. He was beaten less than half a length by Marinaresco in both the Winter Guineas and Winter Classic and that is outstanding form. According to the adjusted ratings he is a racing certainty with eight lengths in hand.

True, he has not raced for four months but his trainer says he has few worries about this, adding: “This will be his first run since being gelded and he is working very well.”

But, while the ratings and weights say Newlands has no chance of beating him, this is a smart sort who was good enough to take third in the Langerman. “He is not rated to win but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him do so,” says Joey Ramsden, adding: “He is a huge big horse, he has been cut and he will run well.”

The computer is predicting a major upset, showing Lineker first past the post even though he was scratched last week. Ignoring that administrative cock-up, it has Lord Marshal as its next best but it shows Whisky Baron only fifth and Newlands trailing in last.

Michael Clower

Kenilworth Wednesday Race Previews by Warren Lenferna:

1

Preview: KATNISS made an excellent debut and should take a power of beating this time around. SEATTLE SILVA ran well on debut and has tons of scope to improve and get much closer today. UNDER MILKWOOD has some ability and can place in a field like this – quartet chance. (Warren Lenferna 4-9-1)

2

Preview: WHISKY BARON has not run for a while but has strong form – he will need a bit further but I believe his class and ability will pull him right through to the winners box – hard to beat. NEWLANDS has good form and should be right there and the same can be said about A NEW DAWN. (Warren Lenferna 3-4-5)

3

Preview: HITHER GREEN is coming to form and looks ready to score now. ANGEL OF ATHENS was not far off on debut and should be able to improve to get much closer now and threaten the judges. KONKOLA is seldom far off and deserves a place in the quartet perms. (Warren Lenferna 5-11-6)

4

Preview: TIFFINDELL was running on well on debut to finish third – she is well bred and clearly has some ability – she should improve and can now win at the second time of asking. EMPIRE RISING and SANDY BAY are fair horses and can certainly place in a race like this but they will all have to go some to beat the first choice. (Warren Lenferna 12-1-2)

5

Preview: HANABI is ultra consistent and comes into this race with serious each way claims. CANDALEEYAH is also running well and cannot be overlooked – the stable is in fine form. WAKE UP MAGGIE (sung by Rod Stewart) is doing really well – she returns from a stint in KZN where she did well finishing close up behind highly rated Blaze Of Mystery and The Secret Is Out. She has a chance. (Warren Lenferna 2-3-4)

6

Preview: CABALLO BLANCO is seldom far off the action and a similar performance can be expected today – bright each way chance. CAPTAIN BAGG can go with some of the best of them and he has a strong chance in this race. He will enjoy some weight off his back from the claiming apprentice. LA FAVOURARI is worth including in the quartet. (Warren Lenferna 8-1-2)

7

Preview: CRAVEN won as he liked last time and has been selected to record back to back victories. He seems pretty useful. THE SLADE has run well in KZN and must have been sent to Cape Town for a reason – big respect and big chance. ONE DIRECTION and GYRE are worth mentioning as well. (Warren Lenferna 2-5-4)

8

Preview: DOUBLE J caught the eye on debut and should relish the mile he gets today. He has been selected to improve and win at the second time of asking. RAHEEB has not been far off in both runs to date and can now get much closer – big chance. RINJANI has a place chance but will win soon but they will all have to run some to beat DOUBLE J! (Warren Lenferna 1-16-5)

The Vaal Inside track has an eight race meeting on Tuesday where the exotic dividends should be handsome as the racing is competitive.

The low draws tend to be favourable on this track.

The highest merit rated race on the card is a MR 104 Handicap over 1800m. It is difficult to assess as a lot of the contestants are returning from layoffs and are probably using this race as a preparation for bigger events. On Saturday at Turffontein an event which was probably similarly being used as a preparation, by some big gun females, saw a 25/1 winner who was hopelessly out at the weights on official merit ratings. So to be safe in this race, exotic punters would likely have to include the entire field.

The class horse in the race is last year’s Gr 1 Sansui Summer Cup winner Master Sabina. However, last year he had a preparation comeback race at roundabout the same time as this over this same distance and could only manage fifth. He is better drawn this time and the field looks weaker. He has also dropped back to the merit rating of his Summer Cup win.

However, he could need it again and is tipped to finish second behind Bankable Teddy. The latter has a plum draw over a suitable trip and is off a competitive merit rating. He is the most race fit of all the runners and the Bankables appear to improve with age. Of the rest, the best has likely not been seen yet of Master Switch and he could prove to be one to follow for the season. He returns from a layoff over a suitable trip, but has a wide draw. However, his class could pull him through into the trifecta.

The best bet on the card could be The Stone Thrower, who runs in the fifth race, a Novice Plate over 1200m. Weichong Marwing rides. The four-year-old Seventh Rock gelding is 6kg out at the weights with Samurai Blade on official merit ratings. However, he is the second best weighted horse and unlike Samurai Blade, who needs considerably further, is distance suited.

In his penultimate start The Stone Thrower moved up well over this distance before appearing to run out of steam, suggesting he needed it. He did not have the best of draws that day either. Last time out on Grand Heritage day he had a tough draw again, so did well to finish fifth in a competitive handicap over this trip. He is now having his third run on the Highveld and has a plum draw. Danza, who was often seen to be headstrong over trips further than sprints, duly enjoyed the 1200m trip last time and has good credentials. However, he is officially 2,5kg under sufferance with The Stone Thrower and has a tough draw by trends.

The Australian-bred Aussie Austin hasn’t run since February and is officially 2,5kg under sufferance with The Stone Thrower. However, he is still an unknown quantity having been touched off by the classy Rivarine over 1000m on debut and then coasting in by three lengths in his next start over 1000m. He jumps from a tricky draw of five but could spoil the party. Sporting Monarch is another talented three-year-old making his seasonal reappearance. He would not be a shock winner, despite also being 2,5kg under sufferance with The Stone Thrower. He has plenty of speed and jumps from pole position draw over a trip he won his maiden over comfortably.

Another runner who makes appeal on the day is the three-year-old Alpine Glacier in the last race over 1000m, a MR 68 Handicap. This horse is a full-brother to the talented Valberg and has a lot of natural speed. He jumps from a good draw and is likely to progress beyond his 77 merit rating, so could hold too many guns.

In race two, a MR 86 Handicap over 1400m, Nephrite could prove to be good value. He has not had draws, weights or distance in his favour this season. However, he has now come down the merit ratings, is ideally distance suited and has a plum draw.

In race three, a Maiden for fillies and mares over 1400m, Rouge Allure looks a solid form choice, but does have a tricky draw to overcome.

David Thiselton

Kumaran Naidoo brings out the former Aiden O’Brien and Paul Lafferty-trained Royal Navy Ship for his South African debut at Scottsville tomorrow.

However, this is a run he will need ahead of his intended engagement in the Gr 2 Peermont Emperor’s Palace Charity Mile on November 5. He arrived in Naidoo’s yard at the beginning of August and was “quite big” at the time and was also carrying a winter coat.

Tomorrow he contests a MR 95 handicap over 1200m with 1,5kg claimer Erico Saziso Ngwane aboard. He is currently “doing well”, but is still “on the big side”, so the run over too short a distance is intended to bring him on.

Naidoo has given him one grass gallop at Summerveld to date and said he had done “quite well.” He described him as having a “lovely action” and a “nice temperament for a colt.” However, he added he would ideally need 2000 metres.

Royal Navy Ship was born on February 8 2012, so is in reality a four-year-old, but in South Africa he has been registered as a five-year-old due to the official August 1 birthday for all horses.

The USA-bred War Front colt was bought out of the Aiden O’Brien yard by leading KZN owner Roy Moodley last year and was campaigned by Paul Lafferty in Dubai. He did not appear to enjoy it out there and ran unplaced in one start on the dirt over a mile and unplaced in two starts on the turf over nine furlongs and ten furlongs respectively.

However, he did earn a cheque for fifth place in the ten furlong handicap event and was only 1,5 lengths behind the Gr 1-winning former South African horse, Slumdogmillionaire, from whom he was receiving only three pounds.

His only career win came on debut in October 2014 where he beat 21 other two-year-olds over seven furlongs at the Curragh in yielding conditions. He completed his two-year-old season by finishing second in a four-runner Gr 3 event over seven furlongs at Leopardstown at odds of 1/6.

When bought out of O’Brien’s yard, after four runs as a three-year-old, he had an official rating of 102. However, he has now slipped down to 94, so will likely need a bit of luck to get into the Charity Mile where he has a plum draw of five out of 38 entries.

Naidoo and Moodley combined to win the Charity Mile in 2013 with Royal Zulu Warrior.

David Thiselton

The brilliant staying hurdler Thistlecrack will make his much anticipated chase debut at Chepstow today.

The Colin Tizzard-trained eight-year-old possesses a phenomenal engine and few before him have been as impressive in staying hurdles events.

If everything goes according to plan this season, he will attempt in March to become the second novice in three years to win the world’s most prestigious chase, the Gr 1 Cheltenham Gold Cup.

A novice had not won the Gold Cup for 40 years before Coneygree did it in 2015.

Unsuitably quick ground forced Tizzard to scrap his original plan to launch the reigning World Hurdle champ over fences early this month.

His participation today was also in question.

Tizzard said midway through last week, “If the ground is right we are going to go. He schooled again today and he is ready to go, but who knows what the ground is going to be like? If that doesn’t work out, he will have an entry at Wetherby.”

Thistlecrack has duly been declared with his regular pilot Tom Scudamore aboard. The rain which fell in Chepstow recently would have helped, although the ground remains good. Thistlecrack won all five races last season, including three in Gr 1 company.

The race, a Novices’ Chase over 2 miles-7 furlongs-and-131 yards, takes place at 4.35pm South African time today and will be aired on Tellytrack.

David Thiselton