Turffontein Tuesday (standside) Race Previews by David Thiselton

Race 1:

Preview: MESS found some support on debut and ran a fair race and Gavin Lerena remains aboard from a fair draw. PAJAMA PARTY has run three good races from 1400-1600m and is well drawn. He has either over raced or made breathing noises all three times but still managed to go close so he might be allowed to go the front and stride out freely. The Mike de Kock-trained ALADEEL is a Sheik Hamdan-owned USA-bred by Sebring, who produced nearly 50 stakes horses in his first four Australian crops including Horse of the Year and Champion Sprinter Dissident. DEVADIP made a fair debut from a wide draw over the Inside 1200m but has another tough draw. FANTASY VIEW by Visionaire is drawn in pole and is half-brother to a twice winner from 1000-1200m. CRAZY VISION by Visionaire is a full brother to Mr Wise Guy, who has won three times from 1400-1600m in Cape Town, but he has a wise draw to overcome. Hamaan is by Silvano out of an Australian-bred mare who has not produced much to date. (David Thiselton 14-1-5-9-10)

Race 2:

Preview: FRENCH LEGEND went close in her only start in June over 1200m and on formlines is the one to beat. SHA-BOOM SHA-BOOM has gone close in her last two over 1200m and the form has worked olut very well so she should be right there. STAR HALO by Kahal is a half-brother to the promising Trippi colt Orion Quest who has won two in Cape Town for  Brett Crawford in just four starts. ANTAYKA by Silvano is half-sister to three winners. SALMON RUN by Kahal is out of the Gr2 Gauteng Fillies Guineas winner Glenrossal. KNYSNA ROSE has run two fair races over 1200m and could earn. SUBTLE FORCE made a fair debut in a workriders event over 1450m when running green around the turn and Delpech is an interesting booking. (David Thiselton 9-4-13-8-12)

Race 3;

Preview: UNREHEARSED was blowing heavily after a decent debut in yielding going over 1200m when backed into 13-10 and over racing a touch from a wide draw around the Inside track turn. He  looks likely to appreciate this fast 1000m. JAMESOM GIRL made a fair debut on Grand Heritage day when showing pace over this trip and Gavin Lerena is now up. MIND SHADE is better than his last run. In his previous two he was undone by bad draws, but had gone close three times over this trip before that, so he is interesting with Strydom now up. MR RAMBO has a chance if reproducing his penultimate start when showing pace over 1200m. ROYAL VARIETY by Var made a fair debut and could improve. (14-16-4-1-11)

Race 4:

Preview: SHIVERING SEA is knocking on the door off her current attractive merit rating and loves this course and distance, where her record reads four runs for a win and three seconds. EBTIHAAL has decent 1000m form and should enjoy this fast 1160m. PUBLIC PROTECTOR looks a decent sort in the making and with Delpech up off an attractive opening handicap mark she should make her presence felt. MODJAJI goes for a hattrick and has only been raised three points for her last win over 1000m, but the going down the straight should be monitored in the earlier race because the number one draw can sometimes be unfavourable. SPICE LADY should appreciate the step down in trip and TELL MY STAR can’t be ignored. (David Thiselton 1-5-6-7-4-2)

Race 5:

Preview: SENSIBLE LOVER is the best in at the weights and has a plum draw over a suitable trip and although she is returning from a layoff since July she should be fit enough coming from the Weiho Marwing yard. FORT EMBER is a progressive sort who is held in high regard and now has her third run after a layoff, having won her two comeback runs against weaker opposition. She is only 0,5kg under sufferance but the wide draw makes it tough. TAHINI, who is only 0,5kg under sufferance on her new six point higher merit rating, won a good race last time over 1600m despite being 5,5kg under sufferance. The good fillies she beat there were likely having preparation runs, but she is also probably coming into her own being by Silvano. However, the wide draw will make it tough. PAREE was undone by a bad draw on Grand Heritage day and this progressive filly has some class so can still rise above her 82 merit rating so can’t be written off despite being 3,5kg under sufferance with the best weight horse. PENNY SERENADE and BE MINE TONIGHT are 2,5kg and 1,5kg under sufferance respectively but from good draws over and ideal trip can’t be written off. (David Thiselton 1-2-3-10-4)

Race 6:

Preview: CHEROKEE GREY is a progressive sort and he was closing in late over 1450m last time so should get this trip from a plum draw. KONCEALED looks a nice type of horse who should be effective from the front on a galloping rack which will suit him, but his chances might depend on how much he will have to be used uo from a wide draw. SILVER PEG is drawn in pole and drops back to her ideal trip. COUNT TASSILO is having his third run after a rest and steps up to a more suitable trip and she should be coming into her own being by Silvano, but the breathing noises she makes are a concern and he has a tricky draw. ESCAPE ROUTE has her problems but certainly had the ability to go close from a good draw here. (David Thiselton 6-8-2-4-7)

Race 7:

Preview: DEALERS CHARM was unlucky in first time blinkers last time as she hung out and cast a shoe but she can make amends from a fair draw over an ideal trip. CAPTAIN CHIPS is knocking on the door and on recent evidence should stay this trip from a pole position draw. COPPER POT won easily last time and although this is stronger she clearly ;oved the step up to this trip and has a chance from a good draw. PISTOLERO is interesting over this trip from a good draw as she often stays on over shorter trip from 1200-1400m. FANGIA is better than her last start. AQUABOY has a tough draw to overcome but Delpech is an eye catching booking after she went close last time in a weaker event. (David Thiselton 7-3-6-1-4-10)

Race 8:

Preview: HERMOSO MUNDO, who should be coming into his own being by Ideal World, won a good race over 2600m last time and Strydom remains aboard. TALBEC ran well in a slow run 2600m last time. CHARMING CHARLIE won a weak maiden race comfortably over 2000m on Saturday and looks a decent staying type in the making so  has a chance from a fair draw if taking his place. PENSTOCK did well in a 3000m race in penultimate and has to be considered as he is 1,5kg better off with TEAGAN’S JET for a 1,3 length beating. ROYAL HONOUR is consistently thereabouts over staying trips. UMTHETHO is 4kg under sufferance but these staying handicaps often produce upsets and from a good draw he strikes as one who could do well over this trip. (David Thiselton 2-6-8-5-4)

 

 

KENILWORTH TUESDAY 1 NOVEMBER 2016 COMMENTS BY WARREN LENFERNA:

1

Preview: MISS STAKE is seldom far off the action and Sean Veale gets the ride today. She is the firm first choice. GOLD FORCE ran second last time and has an undeniable winning chance here. STOPTHINKINGOFME ran okay on debut and has tons of scope to improve – include in the quartet. (Warren Lenferna 5-2-17)

2

Preview: DANCER has solid form and was narrowly beaten last time. He has the ability and all the credentials to suggest that he can now go one better. CAPE LADDIE has shone since winning his maiden and in this small but competitive race, he has strong each way claims. CANDID won well at only the second time of asking – he must have ability and can improve to run another very good race – big runner. (Warren Lenferna 2-1-3)

3

Preview: CROMPTON COURT showed good improvement last time when tried over the mile – he gets the best draw today and with expected more improvement to come should take a power of beating here. MTOROSHANGA also improved last time but tries the mile for the first time today – if he stays (he should) he will be very competitive. GIMME ONE NIGHT has a place chance. (Warren Lenferna 7-11-1)

4

Preview: PRANCING nearly won last time. She gets the best draw and the mile this afternoon and rates the one they all have to beat. SILVER WILLOW is getting closer with each and every run and has a huge chance here but will have to first overcome a dreadful draw. POSSIBLY ME is the stable mate and is a must for the quartet. (Warren Lenferna 12-1-2)

5

Preview: INANNA is well related and surely has to be better than her recent form shows – her last run was good and I am going with her to record her third career win. EVOKE EMOTION is ultra consistent she has either won on run fourth recently and she is one that has to be given serious consideration for the win position. ELUSIVE WAVE has been knocking hard at the door in her last two and maybe the door will open now – I don’t think it can be today but I do expect another bold run from her – include in the quartet. (Warren Lenferna 1-4-6)

6

Preview: MIRANDA FROST is returning from a rest but showed before that, that she was a serious racehorse. She was a beaten favourite last time but can certainly be forgiven for that run – the only thing that we don’t know is the level of her fitness however I am still of the opinion that even not fully fit she should be able to make a winning come back. She is the best bet on the card and I believe will take a ton of beating. ANIME and MISS EINSTEIN have chances for the minor positions. (Warren Lenferna 1-3-6)

7

Preview: ALWAYS IN CHARGE!!!!! What can we say? Won his last two in champion style and his last win was a Group One! He has not run for a while but is still rated as the horse they all have to beat – even if he is not fully fit he should still be able to beat this field. ATTENBOROUGH and ORION QUEST have consistent and solid form and look set to fight out the minor money but they will all have to run some to beat Always In Charge! (Warren Lenferna 2-3-1)

8

Preview: JUST SENSUAL won her maiden at only the second time of asking and she was rather impressive to say the least. She is well bred, looks progressive and with Anton Marcus in the saddle for Mayfair Speculators – a lot points to this horse winning again! REIN TONNERRE has a strong place chance and MIDTOWN MANHATTAN won well last time and could end up being absolutely anything! (Warren Lenferna 3-2-6)

 

Prized Icon and Glyn Schofield won the $1.5m, Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) at Flemington on Saturday to create history for trainer James Cummings in a race won by his grandfather Bart five times and his great-grandfather Jim once back in 1948.

The win was dominant with Schofield presenting Prized Icon, already a Group 1 winner of the ATC Champagne Stakes over 1600m, at the top of the main straight after racing in mid-field down the back straight.

Morvada had led to the 600m at a good clip but he faded as the pressure went on as the field started the long sweep of the turn for the main straight again. Swear and Tommy Berry took over with Sacred Elixir (NZ) and Zac Purton outside. Hollywood Mo and Stephen Baster were next and then Schofield and Prized Icon the widest of all.

They were line abreast until the 300m when Schofield sent Prized Icon forward again. Swear, Sacred Elixer and Hollywood Mo tried to counter, but Prized Icon was gone and off to the line with the margin opening with each stride.

Schofield was able to celebrate at the line on Prized Icon well clear with a margin of 2 1/2L over the $2.80 favourite Sacred Elixir (Pour Moi) and Inference (So You Think) and Dwayne Dunn coming through for third, the margin 1 1/4L.

So Si Bon was fourth with Swear fifth. The time was 2.36.16 on the Good 3 track and the final 600m in 35.66. Prize Icon paid $18.00 on fixed odds and $17.20 on the tote.

“I just had a lovely run throughout the race, but prior to getting into the race we had a few anxious moments to see if we were going to take our spot or not. James and the team made the right decision ultimately and he was pretty dominant today,” said Schofield.

“It all works out brilliantly unless you win. This is a very sweet victory and credit to James and his team for producing the horse in peak performance.

“He caught me a little bit by surprise last week when he did not show any turn of speed around those tight corners. I just said to James to not worry when he gets to the big open track he will show that turn of speed.

“When I go onto the back to Sacred Elixir through the 600/700m and he was starting to make his move I was not really travelling all that well. Until I showed him the outside of the horses and I probably got there a tad too soon as he idled a little when he got in front. But he had a little in the tank.

“With Chad here it has made it extra special,” he said.

“I get a lot of confidence from the fact that my great-grandfather was training horses in 1911, so there is over 100 years of horse racing excellence in the family and that knowledge gives us confidence,” said Cummings.

“Then it wanes and there are times like at Moonee Valley but this man right here (Schofield) gave me confidence to back this horse up. He convinced me that the horse never got enough peace. There were times when we doubted running him, but the thing about these horses is that when you concentrate on your horse and run your own race as they say, it can be rewarding.

“It is no fluke that he is here. It has been out plan for a long time and everyone at Gooree who breed these tough horses that can pull off this sort of race can be very proud of days like today and so they should be,” he said.

Thoroughbrednews.com.au

Picture: Dailytelegraph.com.au

 

Guide to Tuesday’s Emirates Melbourne Cup 6.20am SAf Time

> Advance wagering opens on Monday October 31.

> Commingled bets: Win, Place, Exacta and Double pools. No Local Pools.

> Telephone betting and online betting will be available from 05:30 Tuesday November 1.

Horse number, horse, trainer, jockey, barrier, weight, comment:

1 BIG ORANGE (GB) Michael Bell Jamie Spencer 7 57.0kg – Fifth last year with 55.5kg he must carry the additional weight this year and improve four places. The distance is not a problem as he comes off a victory of the 3219m of the Group 2 Goodwood Cup on July 28^th. $16 in the market is fair.

2 OUR IVANHOWE (GER) Lee and Anthony Freedman Dwayne Dunn 6 57.0kg – Not disgraced in 2015 Melbourne Cup after a good third in the Caulfield Cup. Not going as well this time around and does not look to be one of the main chances here.

3 CURREN MIROTIC (JPN) Osamu Hirata 18 56.5kg – Second on the Group 1 Tenno Sho Spring over 3200m at Kyoto in May but two uninspiring runs over 2200 since. Has not won in three years.

4 BONDI BEACH (IRE) Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore 5 56.0kg – Disappointed in last year’s Melbourne Cup after some strong runs in Europe. Returns with equally good form again. Is well in the market, so there is confidence around that he can improve at his second crack at the big one.

5 EXOSPHERIC (GB) Lee and Anthony Freedman Damien Oliver 13 56.0kg – Third in the Caulfield Cup over 2400m, 3 3/4L from Jameka. Oliver and the Freedman’s have won eight Melbourne Cups between them but Exospheric has not run the distance which just may prevent a ninth win.

6 HARTNELL (GB) John O’Shea James McDonald 12 56.0kg – Many believed he was equal or superior to Winx leading into the Cox Plate. That may seem fanciful now but it is impossible to ignore his form this preparation. He was dominant against Jameka in the Turnbull Stakes before Jameka went on to easily win the Caulfield Cup. A deserved favourite who is a big chance of giving Godolphin their first Melbourne Cup.

7 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) Chris Waller Hugh Bowman 20 56.0kg – Leading trainer and jockey combination and second to stablemate Grand Marshall (GB) in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup over 2500m. That is the problem now that he is finding it hard to win.

8 WICKLOW BRAVE (GB) Willie Mullins Frankie Dettori 24 56.0kg – European form has been solid for most of this year before impressive Irish St Leger win. That form should stack up well here. Will be no surprise to see him in the thick of things on Tuesday afternoon if he can get a decent run from the draw.

9 ALMOONQITH (USA) David and Ben Hayes and Tom Dabernig Michael Walker 19 54.5kg – Trained specifically for this race and his fourth in the Caulfield Cup had the fastest closing sectionals of the race. He was 13^th at the 400m and was 4 1/4L from the winner at the line still closing very quickly. The current odds of $26 and $7.25 need close examination.

10 GALLANTE (IRE) Robert Hickmott Blake Shinn 2 54.5kg – Sydney Cup winner who disappointed in the Moonee Valley Cup last time out. Can obviously stay but recent form doesn’t stack up.

11 GRAND MARSHALL (GB) Chris Waller Ben Melham 9 54.5kg – Finally returned to form with the Moonee Valley Gold Cup win. Has won over the distance, drops in weight for this but he would need to maintain that Valley form and then lift again.

12 JAMEKA (AUS) Ciaron Maher 3 54.5kg – Last year’s Crown Oaks winner who is relishing spring racing once again. Was dominant in the Caulfield Cup after a strong second to Hartnell in the Turnbull Stakes. Has been near the top of the market for a while now and there are no reasons for punters to shy away from her at this point.

13 HEARTBREAK CITY (FR) Tony Martin Joao Moreira 23 54kg – Irish hurdler who won the Ebor Handicap over 2816m at York on August 20^th. Will run the distance but is there a turn of foot for Flemington. The market is keeping safe but while he will not be stopping there might be others in front.

14 SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD (IRE) John Thompson Blake Spriggs 14 54.0kg – Impressive winner of The Metropolitan in Sydney before offering little in the Caulfield Cup last time out. Not sure if the Sydney staying form stacks up here. Others look more likely here.

15 EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (GB) Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott Vlad Duric 21 54.5kg – Finished fourth in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup over 4L from the winner and does not look likely to improve on that.

16 BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE (GB) Saeed bin Suroor Damien Lane 1 52.5kg – Handy Godolphin mare who has done little wrong in 10 starts in Europe. Distance is a query but looks to have ability and may be worth considering for multiples.

17 ALMANDIN (GER) Robert Hickmott Kerrin McEvoy17 52.0kg – Coming off very good form including winning the Group 3 Bart Cummings over 2500m back on October 2^nd , which seems an age away, with 55kg. Drops 3kg, add the Carnival’s in-form jockey Kerrin McEvoy and this might be another William owned winner

18 ASSIGN (IRE) Robert Hickmott Katelyn Mallyon 22 52.0kg – Won the Group 2 Herbert Power a month ago. Hard to see that form stacking up. Barrier 22 could be the straw that broke the camel’s back.

19 GREY LION (IRE) Matt Cumani Glen Boss 16 52.0kg – Had the length of the Geelong straight to pass Qewy and could not manage it and the market says $31.00 as a result.

20 OCEANOGRAPHER (GB) Charlie Appleby Chad Schofield 11 51.0kg – Godolphin runner who was unlucky in the Group 2 Geelong Cup before a barnstorming come-from-behind win in the Lexus Stakes on Derby Day that confirmed his spot in the field. That win saw him move into second favourite. If he backs up well he will be in the thick of things.

21 SECRET NUMBER (GB) Saeed bin Suroor Stephen Baster 10 52kg – Last year he was second in the Group 3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2600m at Flemington and has raced just once since to win the listed Doonside Cup over 2012m at Ayr.

22 PENTATHLON (NZ) John Wheeler Mark Du Plessis 4 51.5kg – Placed in the Moonee Valley Cup and has placed over 3200m before in New Zealand but disappointed in the Lexus and looks unlikely to threaten.

23 QEWY (IRE) Charlie Appleby Craig Williams 15 51.5kg – Stamina is not the issue here and the hurdler/galloper will keep on rolling for the entire distance. If he is allowed to do just that the field should not allow him to establish a break as he will not stop and he will not notice the weight. Keep in multiples.

24 ROSE OF VIRGINIA (NZ) Lee and Shannon Hope Ben Thompson 8 51.0kg – Could not go with them when things got going in the Lexus on Saturday. Was second in the 3200m Auckland Cup in March and will need to find that form again to be any chance here.

Selections from the ThoroughbredNEWS News team:

Glenn Moore	Rob Burnet	Flemington Spy	The News Desk
Hartnell	Hartnell	Oceanographer	Almoonqith
Curren Mirotic	Almoonqith	Big Orange	Almandin
Jameka	Almandin	Beautiful Romance	Qewy
Wicklow Brave	Bondi Beach	Hartnell	Hartnell

 

Wow! What a racehorse. And after Saturday’s demolition job Table Bay could attempt to become the first three-year-old to win the Met since Horse Chestnut and Badger’s Coast 17 years ago.

“It’s the Guineas next and then we will play around with a few ideas – whether we go for the Derby or the Met,” said Markus Jooste’s racing manager Derek Brugman. “At this point in time we will probably lean towards the side of caution but it’s not inconceivable that we will lean towards the Met.”

For a Grand Parade Cape Guineas winner, and that’s what Table Bay now looks like, the Investec Cape Derby is just an  ordinary Grade 1 whereas the Met has huge stallion value-enhancing potential – not to mention a R5 million stake thanks to Sun International’s sponsorship.

In truth, Table Bay’s Drakenstein Vet Clinic performance was that of a champion. Giving weight all round – including a staggering 5kg to half the field – the 3-1 chance went clear two furlongs out to draw further and further away. He won easing up by four lengths.

“I knew he was good but I’m shocked by the way he won this. It was mind-blowing,” said Brugman while Joey Ramsden (“a lovely laid-back horse and a smashing sort”) will surely have nightmares about how close he came to missing the colt in Melbourne. It will be a long time before he travels without an alarm clock.

“Of course I was impressed,” said Anton Marcus answering the obvious before disclosing that he would have had little hesitation in leading from the start. “It was always my intention to move him up [the field] a bit and it wouldn’t have been a train smash if he had led.”

This was the third time in four years that the Cape Classic has gone to the same owner-trainer-jockey combination but Riaan van Reenen is already planning to resume rivalry on December 17 with 18-1 runner-up Elevated.

He said: “Every time Elevated runs it looks as if the distance is too short for him but we will miss the Selangor and go straight to the Guineas. He was a late foal (December 9) and I don’t want to over-race him.”

But Edict Of Nantes will run in the Selangor a fortnight on Saturday with Brett Crawford hoping for more of a trouble-free run – “He had to check twice yet he still got up to come third.”

The mile race is also next for 18-10 favourite Our Mate Art who took fourth. “He should have finished better but he was constantly off the bridle,” said Candice Bass-Robinson. “He missed the break, got a bump and Grant had to keep chasing him up.”

Stable companion Marinaresco, though, was a different story in the Drakenstein Stud Pinnacle just over an hour later. It was almost as if the Champions Cup winner had been watching Table Bay and set out to show the younger horse just what he will be up against should he have the audacity to throw down the gauntlet on January 28.

Six furlongs was far too short and for five of them he was stone last. When Van Niekerk finally switched on the turbocharger (“I gave him just one backhander, and a soft one at that”) his mount accelerated like a Ferrari and at the line he was a rapidly-diminishing third to Silicone Valley.

“That was a nice come-on run,” said his trainer with the sort of masterly understatement you expect from her father. “Marinaresco now goes for the Green Point on December 3 and then it’s the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate and the Met.”

Ektifaa, Australian-bred and out of a mare by Table Bay’s sire Redoute’s Choice, gave Mike de Kock his first Choice Carriers Championship since Phillipa Johnson 13 years ago and seems sure to take her chance in the WSB Fillies Guineas on December 3. “Most probably – we came down on Tuesday and we are here for three months,” said long-time assistant Natie Kotzen.

It was the biggest Cape Town win so far for Callan Murray who reported: “She made a bit of a hash-up of the start, rearing shortly before the gates opened. Fortunately she broke well, got into a beautiful position and dug down to the line.”

But 5-2 favourite Sail is likely to be backed to reverse the placings on December 3. She was desperately unlucky and finished like the proverbial train to go under by three parts of a length.

“One of the Bass runners carried me out after being pushed wide by Red Light Girl jumping a shadow,” reported Sean Veale. “I will take on the winner again in the Fillies Guineas and over the longer run-in you will see a different result.”

The Secret Is Out lost her unbeaten record, managing only seventh, but Vaughan Marshall was far from disheartened, reasoning: “I thought it was a good run considering she got baulked leaving the gates. She was bumped by a horse on her inside coming out.”

Gavin Lerena was suspended for a week for interference when winning the Highlands Stud Handicap on Captain Courteous while the latter’s stable companion Le Harve lost his stalls cert for rearing in the pens, breaking through and delaying the Cape Classic.

Michael Clower