Fairview Monday [Jan 16] tips by INForm

Selections:

Race 1. (11) WHAT A WINNER  (10) RUN FOR YOUR LIFE  (3) BRAVE ENDEAVOUR

Race 2. (9) LET HER FLY  (2) IN YOUR FACE  (10) QUINELIA

Race 3. (1) WARREN PLACE  (3) TRACK-KING  (8) TOUGH HARRY

Race 4. (2) ONE AWAY  (8) RUSH IN  (3) SEATTLE SWING

Race 5. (6) OCHONCAR  (2) TRUE MASTER  (3) GOGETTHESHERIFF

Race 6. (2) BEATABOUTTHEBUSH  (4) TREIZE  (3) SILVAN JAZZ

Race 7. (1) PACIFIC SPIRIT  (5) IN FULL REGALIA  (6) IMPERIAL GUARD

Race 8. (1) SWEETCHILD O MINE  (2) THORNBIRD  (3) ACROSS THE LAKE

Place Accumulator: (R48)

Leg 1: 2

Leg 2: 1,3

Leg 3: 2

Leg 4: 6,2

Leg 5: 2

Leg 6: 1,5,6

Leg 7: 1,2,3,7

Pick 6: (R405)

Leg 1: 1,3,8

Leg 2: 2,8,3

Leg 3: 6,2,1

Leg 4: 2

Leg 5: 1,5,6

Leg 6: 1,2,3,7,15

Jackpot: (R36)

Leg 1: 2,8,3

Leg 2: 6,2,1

Leg 3: 2

Leg 4: 1,5,6,8

 

 

The remarkable Talktothestars can make it third time lucky by gaining his revenge on Turffontein rival Trip To Heaven in the Khaya Stables Diadem Stakes at Kenilworth tomorrow.

Piere Strydom’s mount races barefoot but that didn’t stop him giving weight all round in the Tsogo Sun Sprint – when Red Ray, Gulf Storm, Captain Alfredo and Exelero – were among those behind. However on his two most recent starts he has been beaten by Trip To Heaven who opened 7-2 favourite with World Sports Betting.

“Those last two runs were a disaster,” says Coenie de Beer who brought the horse down last week and settled him into the box at Harold Crawford’s yard that he occupied when he came for last year’s Cape Flying Championship. On that occasion he did wear shoes but managed only fifth. “It didn’t plan out for him,” De Beer recalls. “They came to the outside and he was bumped although he flew the final 300m.”

Trip To Heaven’s Achilles heel is his tendency to lose ground at the start – two lengths in each of his last two races and four in the Mercury Sprint before that. However on his most recent outing he quickly recovered the ground and had a trouble-free run thereafter whereas Talktothestars was squeezed out when making his move and, by the time he got going again, it was all too late. He is 1.5kg better and is a big price at 7-1.

Nine of the 13 runners are in the Cape Flying, notably Gulf Storm and 4-1 second favourite Red Ray who is running for the first time since landing the Mercury Sprint in July and who has proved his ability to run well when fresh.

“We haven’t quite the facilities that we do in Durban to sharpen him up -hills etc,” says Joey Ramsden. “But he is doing well and he looks a million dollars. He is pretty ready.”

Gulf Storm (7-1) won last year’s Betting World-sponsored Grade 1 and his disappointing run in the Southeaster on Christmas Eve is best forgiven and forgotten. Apart from anything else he was giving weight all round.

“He didn’t get much luck in running that day even though he was only beaten just over three lengths but he is well-weighted here,” says Brett Crawford whose other runner Search Party is on a hat-trick but looks short enough at 9-2. “It’s a big task for him but he has done nothing wrong in his last two and he has room for improvement in him.”

Tevez (7-1) seldom runs a bad race and Aldo Domeyer’s confidence is sky-high after last Wednesday’s incredible six-timer. He is the oldest horse in the field but he should go close.

“It’s all about the pace with him,” says Candice Bass-Robinson whose father won three of the last five runnings. “They didn’t go hard when he won the Southeaster – he likes it faster – but he sat closer than he normally does.”

It’s hard to give any of the others a real chance and you have to go back to Thunder Key (33-1) in 2009 to find the winner starting longer than 15-2.

By Michael Clower

The Listed Michael Roberts Handicap over 1750m heads a nine race card at Scottsville on Sunday and it looks to be as competitive as ever.

Rikitikitana proved he prefers turf when winning the Gr 3 Christmas Handicap over 1600m at Greyville in fluent style. He has been seen to run on over 1800m before, so should enjoy this trip. He does have to handle a four point merit rated raise, but has a fair draw.

Mr Winsome is a typically progressive son of Silvano and from a good draw of two will be a big runner over a probably ideal trip. Caribbean Day is 2kg under sufferance on official merit ratings, but was unlucky last time in the KZN Summer Challenge 1600 final, so is the dark horse here over a trip he should enjoy.

Stormy Eclipse’s five wins have all been on the poly, but he was staying on in the Christmas Handicap and is 1,5kg better off for a three length beating by Rikitikitana. Furthermore, he is drawn in pole position.

Run Rhino Run is a talented sort, but can be headstrong so the step up in trip is a concern, especially from his tricky draw. He will need a good pace and this could perhaps be provided by Sylvester The Cat. The latter is an enigmatic sort who does possess plenty of ability and he reserves his best for Scottsville, so could be a big runner here as he is likely to be at his peak. Kitty’s Destiny returns from a seven month layoff over a trip short of his best and this talented, long strider can’t be ignored from a good draw.

Princess Varunya would prefer further, but is a classy sort and from a good draw can’t be ignored. Ashton Park showed in the Michaelmas, when running on for second, he can go further than a mile and is another interesting runner, although he has the widest draw of all to contend with like he did when staying on in the Christmas Handicap.

Double Clutch is effective over this trip and better than his last run as he did not act in the soft on that occasion. However, he has a tough draw to overcome and is high enough in the merit ratings. Open Heir sneaks into the handicap with the minimum weight, but has a tough draw and is nine points higher than when winning over course and distance in September. They are selected in the order mentioned.

In the fifth race over 1200m, the second leg of the Pick 6, the course record holder Humidor returns from a three-and-half month layoff and will be hard to beat under Anton Marcus as he is likely better than his 86 merit rating suggests.

The first leg of the Pick 6 is a weak maiden over 1200m and Intercept and Spiritofadventure should get punters through.

The third leg of the Pick 6 is a competitive 1000m handicap for fillies and mares, but the three who stand out are Just Vogue, Mygirldownunder and Vision To Kill.

In the next leg of the Pick 6 over 2400m, Delirious Nomad is interesting despite being by the sprinter Rebel King as he was staying on well over 1950m last time, and Calabash, Dunham, Smart World, Sabre Charge and Shirley Valentine can also be included.

In the last leg of the Pick 6, a maiden for fillies and mares over 1600m, On That Note looks the one to beat, but Baobab should improve over this trip, Liberty Market has a chance, Pippin must be included and Movinglikeawinner should improve over the trip.

By David Thiselton

Anton Marcus consistently tops statistical logs and it’s no surprise that his win strike rate this season of 27,34% (or 70 wins from 256 rides) is almost identical to his overall strike rate from last season (27.30%). His numbers become even more impressive when paired with certain stables and his 100% (4 from 4) win strike rate for Alistair Gordon stands out on this list. The pair have a good chance of keeping the streak going with My Pal Al in the fifth at Greyville tonight.

My Pal Al was an easy maiden winner over 1400m on the Greyville polytrack in his second start as a gelding and impressed next time out when just touched off by the highly-rated Roy’s Magic. Both three-year-olds then made the trip up north to contest the Dingaans but My Pal Al did not appear to enjoy the soft going and faded out in the final furlong.

The Turffontein run is probably best ignored, for a number of good reasons, and closer inspection of his run to Roy’s Magic (rated 87) suggests that My Pal Al is likely better than his current mark of 80. He returns to 1400m on the polytrack tonight, jumps from an inside draw, has Marcus up and a set of blinkers have been slapped on to keep him focused. To say My Pal Al has plenty in his favour would be an understatement and he is worth chancing as a banker in smaller perms.

Anthony Delpech was a noticeable absentee around the KZN tracks over the last month after breaking his collar bone in early December. He eases his way back with four rides at Greyville on Friday night and all of them have winning chances.

Delpech has an impressive strike rate (28% winners, 50% first two) when linking up with the Dean Kannemeyer stable and the combination can improve their stats with the consistent Gusheshe in the second – a Maiden Plate (F&M) over 1400m. The drop back in trip is a slight concern for Gusheshe who tends to run on after the fact but this is negated by an inside draw which is a crucial advantage over this track and trip.

Gusheshe’s primary opponent is the Duncan Howells-trained Roy’s Kaitrina who jumps from pole position but the latter is not the most fluent out of the gates and this drop back in trip may not be ideal after running on stoutly over a mile last time out. The lightly raced A-Rod will also have his followers, with Anton Marcus in the irons, but Gusheshe has most in her favour and could be worth chancing as a Bipot banker.

Delpech teams up with Kannemeyer again with Arran Isles in the third and the lightly raced son of King’s Apostle has more scope for improvement than most of her rivals. With precious little form on offer, Arran Isles stands out in this line-up and should see you safely through exotics bets.

The luckless Last Tiger gets Delpech back on board in the fourth, the first leg of the Pick 6, but this is a competitive handicap with a number of runners capable of making the frame. An inside draw will help his chances but Last Tiger, cramped for room in two of his last three starts, will need quite a bit to go his way to fend off Cutting Edge who looks well in here back on handicap terms after going close when under sufferance at the weights in a Pinnacle Stakes last timeout.

Cutting Edge does have his problems and there is no guarantee he will reproduce his improved latest effort. With this in mind, the likes of Just Ask Me, Silver Spring and Mumsy’s Jet warrant consideration.

Delpech takes a break in the fifth and it’s probably best as Marcus and My Pal Al look difficult to oppose.

The sixth looks tricky but the one to keep an eye on is Duncan Howells’ recent recruit His Legacy who is down in class and most likely better than rated. This does look a touch on the sharp side for the former Geoff Woodruff runner but His Legacy went into many notebooks after showing a good turn of foot to win his first two starts and is one to follow.

Delpech completes his night on Delicious Damowin in the seventh who ran on strongly over the minimum trip last time out and has two wins over this track and trip (1200m). He also jumps from an inside draw for a change and should be fighting out the finish. The main danger could be Russian Speed who has dropped dramatically in the ratings (87 > 55) and gets a good draw after staying on well on his poly debut from the widest gate of all.

The eighth is a minefield and recent maiden winners Patroclus and Portman Square, together with Rockefeller (rating slide), are preferred.

The younger Fit For Fun and Quality Matters will be popular choices in the last but the more experienced Disrupt may have the edge from a decent draw and with the confidence of Marcus in the saddle.

By Brendan Pather

Aldo Domeyer had a red letter day at Kenilworth yesterday riding six winners from just six rides on the eight race card.

He started off with a treble for his chief stable, Andre Nel, the private trainer to Sabine Plattner.

Ready Set Go (Race 2) converted favouritism at 28/10, Loadshedder (Race 3) was the bookmakers 2/1 favourite, although not Tote favourite, and Guilty Pleasure (Race 4) won at odds of 6/1.

His next winner was in the fifth aboard the Shane Humby-trained 4/1 shot Midnight Vision, who recorded his third win in succession.

Domeyer then won the seventh aboard the Mike Stewart-trained 6/1 chance Icon King.

Domeyer rode a confident race in the last over 1200m aboard the Mike Bass-trained Wake Up Maggie, who travelled well throughout before storming home to an impressive victory at odds of 9/2.

The young rider could be forgiven for standing up in the saddle in celebration at the line to mark a memorable day at the office.

Domeyer did not have rides in either race 1 or race 6 making it a perfect day at the office. The archives will have to be searched to see whether Domeyer’s perfect six broke a South African record for the number of winners from the same amount of rides on a day.

By David Thiselton