The US$500 000 CTS Mile for three-year-olds at Kenilworth’s big Sun Met meeting will throw male vs female form together and also Cape Town vs Johannesburg form. However, the impressive William Longsword looks the one to beat and the two biggest challengers could be the fillies Just Sensual and Safe Harbour.

William Longsword won the Gr 1 Grand Parade Cape Guineas in impressive style from a wide draw. The 0,5 length runner up in that race, Gold Standard, gives him the stamp of approval. Gold Standard had won the Gr 2 Selangor Cup in his previous start also over 1600m and had relegated the deemed unbeatable Table Bay to a 2,65 length third.

There were some excuses made for Table Bay afterwards, but the Guineas confirmed the form almost exactly, as Gold Standard beat Table Bay by 3,25 lengths. The Guineas win also confirmed William Longsword’s 4,9 length sixth in the Selangor to not be his run. The form of the Guineas is already working out well and this says a lot as the front two were dominant.

William Longsword is a rangy Captain Al colt with a big action. He also has a lovely temperament, relaxes well in the running and has a superb turn of foot. MJ Byleveld rode a fine race in the Guineas and was able to overcome a high draw of 13. Anton Marcus now takes over and William Longsword might find it easier to overcome a 12 draw this time as it is a weaker field than the Guineas.

Safe Harbour can also be described as rangy and has had an outstanding summer in Cape Town. She won the R2,5 million CTS Ready To Run Stakes over 1400m and beat  four horses in that race who went on to run in the Cape Guineas. She was then touched off by Just Sensual in the Gr 1 WSB Cape Fillies Guineas and was also touched off by the champion older filly Bela-Bela in the Gr 1 Maine Chance Paddock Stakes over 1800m. She has a better draw than William Longsword, seven, and Weichong Marwing remains aboard.

However, Just Sensual could well confirm the Cape Fillies Guineas form, especially as she will come into the race fresher. She also has the legendary Frankie Dettori aboard. On the downside, she has to overcome a draw of 18. However, she was also drawn wide in the Cape Fillies Guineas and had to run wide into the straight. Despite that she still found the necessary extra to beat Safe Harbour, who had the advantage of a number two draw.

Anton Marcus prefers William Longsword to Just Sensual and this swings it in the colt’s favour. It could well be William Longsword’s last run before going to stud, so it will be a good race to win.

The dark horses look to be the relatively unexposed African Night Sky and the filly Epona, although the latter would probably prefer further.

By David Thiselton

Glen Kotzen, who is bullish about the chances of Gold Standard in Saturday’s Sun Met, looks to have a big runner in the R1 million Kuda Sprint in Gold Image. However, this race looks to be a minefield and Place Accumulator punters will be happy to get through it still running.

Gold Image, a Horse Chestnut filly out of a Tamburlaine maiden, broke the course record for 800m at Kenilworth on debut. She beat the Mike de Kock-trained Captain Al colt Captain My Captain. However, she is certainly not just a tearaway. She had a recent gallop at Kenilworth, which was “very, very impressive”. Based on the gallop Kotzen believes she will see out the 1200m trip of Saturday’s race. He makes her a “huge runner.”

However, on the downside, she is one of only two fillies in the race. She is also one of only five horses, along with Barrack Street, Bold Respect, Puget Sound and Sir Frenchie, who will carry a 2kg penalty for a win. Therefore, by no means can she be regarded as a banker.

It is a 20 horse field, but the draw might not be a big factor if the wind prediction on Windguru is correct. The wind is predicted to be only between seven and twelve knots and will swing from north westerly at 11h00 to south westerly by 14h00. A South Westerly wind comes over the main stand and in those circumstances the front-running horses do not provide as much of a shield to horses behind them as they do when the infamous south easterly is blowing. The earlier north westerly should not have any impact on a race.

Captain My Captain, who is drawn 20, has enjoyed a good preparation. He followed his debut with a good third over 1000m and he wasn’t stopping at the line. He looks likely to come on further from that run.

Wonderwall, who is one of five runners from the Sean Tarry yard in this race, was making his debut when finishing second over 1000m, beating Captain My Captain by 0,2 lengths. He should come on from the run.

 

Warrior’s Rest is a big What A Winter colt with plenty of scope. On debut he caught the eye staying on over 1000m despite being green. He should appreciate the step up in trip being a three-quarters brother to the useful sprint-miler Bichette and a half-sister to Gr 1 Woolavington winner Viva Maria. The winner Warrior’s Rest’s last start was Sir Frenchie, an Australian-bred by Choisir. It was his debut and he dropped back to last before running on to win in good style. Bernie finished second to Sir Frenchie, showing good speed before tiring late. It was his debut and coming from the Candice Bass-Robinson yard, he should improve.

Vortex Star ran on well for third in that race on his debut and Frankie Dettori now takes the ride.

Varside was a staying on fifth, beaten 1,3 by fourth-placed Warrior’s Rest, and next time out he stayed on again, but was nearly five lengths behind Wonderwall and Captain My Captain.

Bold Respect won well over 1000m second time out and this long-strider will enjoy the step up to 1200m. Two horses were running on in eye-catching fashion behind Bold Respect, namely Volcanic Sunset and Apollo Star. They should both appreciate the step up to 1200m. Bold Respect was beaten 1,25 length by the speedy Dynasty colt Barrack Street on debut over 800m, but was staying on well.

Barrack Street is not an imposing sort, but has a big action and plenty of speed. On pedigree he should stay the trip as he is a half-brother to Jay Peg, a four-time Gr 1 winner from 1600m-2000m. Barrack Street is part-owned by Mayfair Speculators, who retain Anton Marcus. However, interestingly, Marcus will be aboard the other Mayfair Speculators-owned runner Big Mistake. The latter ran a 2,5 length third to Barack Street in his only run to date. He showed speed, but was green and tired late. He should come on significantly for the run, being a Bass-Robinson horse.

The third of the Bass-Robinson runners is Wall Street Trader, who was well beaten on debut, and the blinkers are now on.

Puget Sound showed pace throughout on debut over 1000m at Turffontein and surged late to get up. Gavin Lerena keeps the ride.

Henry Tudor was staying on over 800m on debut and this Var colt should enjoy the 1200m trip.

Snow Boarding ran on well over 1000m on debut at Turffontein, but the form is questionable.

Lacerta showed pace second time out over 1000m to be beaten only 3,3 lengths by the promising Namibia and how the latter goes in race two on the card could be a pointer to her chances.

The only first-timer is Australian-bred Riker’s Island by Delago Deluxe, who won two Gr 1s at Scottsville.

It is an ultra tough first leg of the PA, but the big horse Warrior’s Rest makes most appeal and  fancied to follow him at this stage, in order of preference, are Wonderwall, Big Mistake Captain My Captain, Barrack Street, Gold Image, Bold Respect, Sir Frenchie, Volcanic Sunset and Vortex Star.

By David Thiselton

Dual Grade 1-winner French Navy has been backed from 40-1 to 25-1 for Saturday’s Sun Met following Sean Tarry’s comments about the horse at last Thursday’s draw ceremony.

The champion trainer said: “People in this game have short memories but just look at his last Grade 1 race in Jo’burg. He has come along nicely and I was very happy with his run in the Queen’s Plate. I think he is a value bet for a place.”

The place odds have also shrunk to as little as 3-1 with Betting World. The five-year-old was beaten six lengths when eighth in the Queen’s Plate but rider Weichong Marwing is convinced that he has come on since. The Turffontein Grade 1 that Tarry was referring to is the Champions Challenge when French Navy was a two-length second to Legal Eagle and he is now 2kg better with the favourite.

Tarry believes that the top end of the market reflects the strength of the opposition to Legal Eagle pretty accurately – “I think they have probably got the betting right. I have a lot of respect for those in single figures. Whisky Baron has come along the soft route but he has been very impressive and he is certainly worth respecting.”

Tarry, who won the 2005 Met with 50-1 chance Alastor, has deliberately saved the talented Cloth Of Cloud for the $500 000 CTS Sprint and he was pleased with the way last season’s SA Nursery winner went with Carry On Alice in a spin on the course last week.

Cloth Of Cloud is 7-2 second favourite with World Sports Betting which has installed Sergeant Hardy as 18-10 favourite. It has Carry On Alice heading the Betting World Cape Flying Championship market at 22-10 with stable companion Trip To Heaven second favourite at 33-10.

Silver Mountain is 22-10 favourite for the Klawervlei Majorca despite her terrible draw (20 out of 20) with the Bass-Robinson second string Nightingale (drawn almost as badly at 16) on 11-2. Star Express (drawn seven) is 9-2 second favourite.

Horizon is hot favourite for the Investec Cape Derby at 11-10 with Frankie Dettori’s mount Edict Of Nantes next best on 7-2 and Table Bay a generous-looking 4-1. Anton Marcus’s mount is officially rated 3.5kg better than anything else in the field.

The bookies are offering huge prices on some of Dettori’s other mounts – 25-1 Vortex Star(Kuda Sprint) and Seventh Plain (Cape Flying), and 50-1 French Legend in the CTS Sprint.

By Michael Clower

Turffontein Tuesday [standside] Jan 24 Tips and Suggested bets by INForm

Selections:

Race 1. (7) SANDALWOOD  (5) LOLITA DELAGO  (6) MISS APHRODITE

Race 2. (5) MUJALLAD  (1) AGITATOR  (7) WHORLY WHORLY

Race 3. (4) RIGHTS OF MAN  (2) SCOTT’S PINE  (1) TOGETHER FOREVER

Race 4. (4) ORDAINED  (5) OMO POWER  (1) LOVE TRYST

Race 5. (3) AL SAHEM  (1) DOOSRA  (4) LIFE IS GOOD

Race 6. (9) SUPER STRATUM  (2) DANZA  (1) URGENT FURY

Race 7. (1) AL AZRAQ  (2) ALL NIGHT FLIGHT  (4) MISSION CONTROL

Race 8. (7) SPRING STEEL  (12) VARS PRIDE  (14) DRAGOON

Place Accumulator: (R18)

Leg 1: 5

Leg 2: 4

Leg 3: 4

Leg 4: 3

Leg 5: 9,2

Leg 6: 1,2,4

Leg 7: 7,12,14

Pick 6: (R960)

Leg 1: 4,2,1,9

Leg 2: 4,5

Leg 3: 3,1

Leg 4: 9,2,1

Leg 5: 1,2,4,6

Leg 6: 7,12,14,1,11

Jackpot: (R60)

Leg 1: 4,5

Leg 2: 3,1

Leg 3: 9,2,1

Leg 4: 1,2,4,6,7

Best Bet:

Race 4: 4

Value Bet:

Race 6: 9

Summerveld trainer Frank Robinson has two raiders at Kenilworth’s big Sun Met meeting and these could be shrewd entries, despite the strength of Cape racing at present.

His Dynasty filly Olma runs in the Gr 1 Klawervlei Majorca Stakes over 1600m  from draw nine under the pilot who knows her best, Ian Sturgeon. She has been with Mike de Kock’s string in Cape Town for three weeks already and Robinson said Nathan Kotzen had reported her to be working “like a machine.”

She will be fit from her run in the Gr 3 Flamboyant Stakes over 1600m where she was undone by a slow pace, but stayed on well for a 5,6 length fourth. On the form of that race she will not have much of a chance as the winner of the race, Fort Ember, was merit rated 96 and was receiving only 1kg from Olma. However, Fort Ember is without doubt on the way up and looks to be a promising sort. Furthermore, Olma likely needed the run.

Robinson also said she prefers running away from horses, unlike in the Flamboyant when she went down the inside. One factor which is definitely in the favour of the classy five-year-old Olma, is that she is one of only three representatives in the race of a fillies crop which is regarded as probably the best in South African history. Furthermore, she is better performed at this trip than the other two, Real Princess and Beach Goddess.

She finished a 0,5 length second to one of the best of that vintage crop, Inara, in last season’s Gr 1 Jonsson Workwear Garden Province Stakes over this trip and a reproduction of that effort will see her right in the thick of things. A downside to her chances is she has never performed well way from KZN. However, all of those runs have been in Johannesburg. This is at the coast and she has had enough time to settle down.

Robinson’s runner in the Gr 1 Investec Cape Derby is The Winter Is Coming, who is merit rated only 90 and thus has a lot to do in the weight for age event against the like of 106 merit rated Table Bay.

However, he is unexposed at this trip and looks likely to relish it. He is by Western Winter and is out of a half-sister to Sansui Summer Cup runner up Deo Juvente, while his champion grandam Circle Of Life is a half-sister to J&B Met winner Zebra Crossing. Winter Is Coming leaves for Cape Town tomorrow and will arrive on Wednesday.

Robinson has no doubt he will travel well as he is a very laid back type. He likes to run from the front and this could be in his favour in a race where Table Bay, who has a stamina doubt, is the only other handy type. Therefore as a relaxed type he might be able to dictate. He has a wide draw of nine but is a long-striding sort and should be able to get over into the front by the first turn.

In his last start over 1400m on the Greyville poly in a Progress Plate he led and then kept on finding extra when challenged by the highly touted 104 merit rated Red Chesnut Road. He was receiving 4kg and the latter was returning from a seven month layoff, but he was pulling away at the line and struck as one who was looking for further. A tongue tie was a big help him to him in that race as he had choked up in his previous start.

Robinson had been in two minds about sending him to Cape Town until that last start.  He is an intriguing runner. He will have had a gallop before leaving tomorrow and has never showed signs of green-ness so should not be bothered by the new course and the left hand turn.

By David Thiselton