Jockey Mike Smith had so much confidence in Arrogate in the Dubai World Cup on Saturday night that he rode him the same way he used to ride the great mare Zenyatta, but he would not be drawn into saying which of the pair was better.

Arrogate’s earnings are now over US$17 million, which makes him the highest stakes earner in thoroughbred history.

After Arrogate had missed the break and been squeezed, Smith found himself in last position but remained calm having often been in that same position with the huge striding Zenyatta, whose only defeat was in her 20^th and final start.

However, Smith did make his move earlier on Arrogate than he used to on Zenyatta and steadily made up ground around the first turn and in the back straight.

However, at one stage his confidence was so high he geared him back a little bit, fearing he would hit the front too soon.

Around the final turn Arrogate moved from third last to third. Upon entering the straight an incident served to prove how strong the big horse is and how within himself he was moving. At that stage he received a hefty bump from the Mike de Kock-trained Mubtaahij, who was attempting to angle outward. However, he held the exact same line and didn’t seem to even notice the presence of the latter. He then cruised past the handy pair Gun Runner and Neolithic to win the US$10 million race as he liked by 2,25 lengths.

Up in the stands trainer Bob Baffert had a completely different take on the race. When he saw the sluggish start, doubt raced through his mind. “I was thinking maybe I shouldn’t have brought him, maybe he’s getting tired.” He talked about the “long ship” over  of a week, although added the horse had trained well in the last couple of days, so believed he would come into the race “fresh”. He saw the jockey sitting on the outside on Arrogate and thought, “Maybe Mike will look after him.” He admitted to then virtually writing Arrogate’s chances off and began concentrating more on his other runner, Hopportunity. However, when Arrogate made “a little move on the far turn”, Baffert said to himself “Wait a minute” and began having “a little hope”. He turned to his wife Jill as they turned for home and told her, “If he wins this race he is the most incredible horse I have ever seen”. Arrogate now had a target and Baffert knew all about his long stride. He admitted to becoming emotional at being involved with a horse who was producing a “Hollywood type finish”, such as was seen in movies like Sea Biscuit. He concluded by praising Smith for allowing Arrogate, whom he said was still a “big kid”, to gather himself after the unplanned start to the race.

Smith said Arrogate was a horse who “can do anything”, i.e. he can lead, come from last and they can go fast or slow, it doesn’t matter to him.

He added, “Look at him, he looks like he hasn’t taken a breath.”

Mubtaahij had a perfect trip until the bump at the top of the straight, but he still managed to fight on bravely for fourth and claim another placed finish for De Kock in the lucrative event. Mubtaahij earned a cheque of US$500,000 to end a disappointing Dubai Carnival for De Kock, at least by his high standards, on a high note.

In the latest Longines world rankings Arrogate was in joint first place on 127 with the phenomenal Australian mare Winx. This performance should take him to the top.

The now four-year-old lost on debut over six furlongs on April 17 last year, but has won his next seven starts, including four Gr 1s in succession over a mile and two furlongs (2000m).

He has twice beaten the previous darling of the American dirt, the seven-times Gr 1-winner California Chrome, first in the Breeders Cup Classic and then in the world’s richest thoroughbred horse race, the US$12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational.

Smith had previously said Arrogate was very much like his father Unbridled’s Song, on whom he won two Gr 1’s in the mid-nineties.

The grey colt’s laid back style of running means he looks to have plenty of racing still in him and the good news is Juddmonte Farms have said he will defend his Breeders Cup Classic crown next November.

By David Thiselton

Trainer Bob Baffert described Arrogate as “the greatest we’ve seen since Secretariat” following last night’s dramatic win in the Dubai World Cup. A strong statement? Perhaps. But only if you have yet to witness the “grey machine’s” amazing performance on a memorable night at Meydan.

Arrogate was sliced up and left for last at the jump but they don’t call jockey Mike Smith ‘Big Money Mike’ for nothing and it was his patience and experience that helped guide the amazing son of Unbridled’s Song to a memorable win. Fellow US raiders Gun Runner and  Neolithic finished second and third with Mike de Kock’s Mubtaahij bravely holding on for fourth.

Arrogate has only been racing for a year but is now the highest stakes earner in the history of the sport. Last night he added the $10million Gr1 Dubai World Cup to his resume following wins in wins in the Travers Stakes (G1), Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and the $12million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) in his last three outings.

When it was over, even his trainer couldn’t believe what Arrogate had done. “I was thinking, ‘Maybe I shouldn’t have brought him. Maybe he’s getting tired.’ … I thought, ‘If he can’t win, Mike [Smith] will take care of him and not abuse him.'”

But as Arrogate worked his way into contention, the Hall of Fame trainer’s mood shifted. “I thought then, ‘If he wins this race, he’s the most incredible horse I’ve ever seen,'” he said.

Baffert said he was glad he brought Arrogate to the desert, even beyond the prestige and purse money.

“Everybody who was here tonight is going to say, ‘I’m glad I was here to see that,'” he said. “If anybody wasn’t super impressed with that, they just don’t like horse racing. I still can’t believe he won the race.”

 

If it wasn’t for World War II the Merit Rating system that attracts mixed feeling out here today might never have existed.

Dick Whitford, regarded as the father of modern handicapping, was the chief officer of a British patrol ship during the war and whiled away the long hours of inactivity in his cabin creating a universal handicap of all racehorses in Britain.

He had little inclination towards the sport, but after a chance meeting with the sports editor of the Daily Telegraph, returned to sea armed with copies of annual form books and began to examine the results, plotting charts to link the horses and create evidence that racehorses were “almost exactly figurable”. Each horse acquired a row of ratings based on the best three or four runs out of seven and it became evident that on this basis horses were astonishingly consistent.

It dawned upon him that he would get nowhere without a broad outline of the racing spectrum from the best horse to the worst. He thus set about creating a single composite handicap of all the runners of 1941. Every horse was included with no special sections for two-year-olds, stayers or sprinters.

There were enormous complications and he confessed that he would not have continued had he not “kept making fascinating discoveries – groups of horses that meshed with each other with astonishing precision.” He achieved his goal by Autumn 1942 and to prove its worth translated the individual ratings into race ratings for current racemeetings and sent his predictions to the Daily Express and Raceform. They worked out “exceptionally well”.

In the meantime the legendary Phil Bull, who made a fortune out of betting on horses and  helping others do the same, had been doing very well since 1938 with a horseracing time ratings service he provided, which he then followed in 1943 with an equally successful annual book called “Best Horses”.

Bull had a mathematics degree and said that race times were meaningless unless the conformation of the track, the state of the going, wind strength and direction, and the pace at which the race was run was taken into account.

He developed a technique of calculating the real value of the time performance by mathematically assessing all the times recorded at a particular racemeeting after referring to the statistical analysis of previous times recorded at the same track. His time rating service was by mail order and with six winning years in the first seven, he was able to advertise  a profit of 23p for every one pound bet.

Whitford had started correspondence with Bull during the war and when it ended they arranged a meeting at a Newmarket racemeeting. It was the first time Bull, who didn’t suffer fools galdly, had met a kindred spirit and he invited Whitford to be his assistant on his Best Horses book.

The pair spent the summer going to the races, visiting stables, studs and sales rings and watching gallops, while Whitford did his handicaps in his spare time.

The book was compiled over the winter with Whitton producing the facts and figures and collecting photographs and Bull doing the writing.

Bull was regarded as one of racing’s finest ever writers, but by this time had all the symptoms of writer’s block. He fell behind in the mammoth task and the deadline for Best Horses was seldom met.

In 1947 an exasperated Whitford devised a shorthand version of Best Horses which included brief comments on all of the horses of that year together with his own form ratings and Bull’s time ratings. Bull immediately saw its market potential and so Timeform was born.

The Timeform Ratings were arrived at by co-ordinating the time ratings of Bull and the form ratings of Whitford and are today regarded as the definitive measure of racing merit.

Whitford left the business in 1949, but by 1962 the company published Timeform every week, Race Ratings for all races and Timeform racecards for all meetings, Flat and National Hunt, as well as producing the very popular annual book Racehorses which began in 1949.

Previously, the task of creating a comprehensive running handicap had been defeated by the fact that horses improve over time.

But Bull simply took the horse’s inherent merit and subtracted the Weight-For-Age allowance to arrive at a real rating, known today in South Africa as a “net rating.”

The Merit Rating system used throughout the world today is indebted to Whitford and Bull.

David Thiselton

 

 

 

Turffontein Standside hosts a classy nine race meeting tomorrow, which includes three stakes event features.

In the Gr 2 Senor Santa Stakes over 1160m, Bull Valley is right up with Trip To Heaven on paper and the latter has proved himself the best sprinter in the country. However, Bull Valley’s number one draw might be unfavourable. Dollar Dazzler can never be ignored over this course and distance. The lightly raced Graduation Day is full of ability. Gr 1 runner up African Ruler is in good form. The lightning fast fillies Wrecking Ball and Queen Laurie will likely attempt to steal it, but would prefer 1000m.

The Gr 2 Colorado Stakes over 2000m is a nightmare to assess and punters might be best advised to include the top six in all of their exotics. The race is likely being used by most runners as a preparation for the Gr 1 Premier’s Champions Challenge. Furthermore, all of them bar Deo Juvente will incur a 1kg Gr 2 penalty if they win. Deo Juvente’s Gr 2 win was less than 18 months ago, so he has already incurred it. Twice Gr 1 winner French Navy has not won a race for 497 days. He was similarly well weighted in last year’s race and only managed third place. He beat Brazuca by a head in the Premier’s Champions Challenge last year and, if the standard weight for age scale is taken into account, is now 2kg better off. He is 6,5kg better off with Deo Juvente for a 0,4 length beating in the 2015 Summer Cup. Deo Juvente likely needed his last run when going close over 1800m and on paper holds Samurai Blade from that outing, as he beat him by 1,25 lengths and is now 1kg better off. On the other hand Samurai Blade only has 0,75 lengths to find on Brazuca from their meeting in last year’s Gr 1 SA Classic over 1800m. Brazuca should have benefitted from his recent win over 1600m and although held by French Navy on Sun Met form, there is a reversal in draw fortunes here. Kings Archer is officially 9kg under sufferance with French Navy, but can’t be ignored in this muddling type of race as he is by stamina influence A P Arrow and tries the trip for the first time. He is out of sprinter by Fasileyev, but has been seen to run on resolutely over 1600m before. Front runner Stonehenge finished second in this race last year, but has been off form recently.

In the Gr 3 Sycamore Sprint over 1160m, She’s A Dragon was unlucky in the Bauhinia Sprint over 1000m, will appreciate the step up in trip and is taken to upset Joan Ranger.

The Listed Derby Trial has attracted a below par field and the class of Alaadel is sided with, although the up and coming Whosethebossnow will be a big threat and the promising Last Outlaw is an interesting blinkers strike.

The Listed Oaks Trial could also fall to a top weight, Belle Rose, at the expense of Balalaika, End Game, Emily Jay, Street Gaze and Trellis.

By David Thiselton

Dynasty’s Blossom is a confident choice for the Fillies Maiden Juvenile at Kenilworth tomorrow. This R4.5 million purchase looked a certain future winner when making a promising debut a fortnight ago and the extra furlong should be in her favour.

The Joey Ramsden filly ran on nicely after making a slow start and had the much more experienced Cosmic Dust over four lengths behind. She is drawn on the rails and is rated 2kg clear of the next best, Rings And Things.

The handicappers don’t normally release any two-year-old ratings until the handicaps start next month but on this occasion the results of their calculations slipped through the net.

The other two-year-old race is much more problematical. Pen-Chan, well beaten when over four lengths-second to the admittedly smart Valedictorian, is top-rated of those that have raced and would have to be the tip unless there is significant money for any of the newcomers.

Those that appear to be the choice of the top stables cost between R500 000 (Supreme Orator) and R100 000 (Pinwheel and the appropriately-named Endofmarch) although Querari’s Secret (R280 000) commands the most respect at this stage even though her pedigree suggests she wants further.

The sahorseracing computer goes for Pen-Chan – but it conveniently ignores all the unraced horses!

Dalibhunga, bred in the purple – by Var out of dual SA Fillies Sprint winner Joie De Grise, has a lot to make up on the top three in the finale on a strict form interpretation of his Valentine’s Day debut but there was a lot of promise about the performance. He lost several lengths at the start after playing up in the pens but he made up six lengths in the last 300m.  He should be good enough.

Arctic Green started favourite when fourth to Miss Stake a month ago – probably because rider Anton Marcus was on a roll – but she did suffer some interference and she finished only half a length behind Daring Miss who re-opposes in the Racing Association Maiden. The Tab sheet has her at 10-1 and at that price you can back her each way. Weston has some decent form but has been off since early January while the Inspired Choice form has not worked out that well.

BLOB Last year’s Woolavington winner Bela-Bela leaves Cape Town for Durban tomorrow morning and will have her first race of the KZN season in the City Of Pietermartizburg Fillies Sprint at Scottsville.

By Michael Clower