The outstanding Summerhill Stud mare Vin Fizz added two more accolades to her glittering record when her son Champagne Haze won the Gr 2 Senor Santa Stakes over 1160m at Turffontein on Saturday and her daughter Belle Rose won the Listed Oaks Trial over 2000m.

The Gary Alexander-trained Champagne Haze, who has not won beyond 1450m, proved speed was what he was all about when bursting through under Gavin Lerena to win going away by two lengths from the speedy Gr 3-winning three-year-old filly Wrecking Ball. The favourite Bull Valley, who is a bull of a horse, was pipped for third but will come on from the run and will no doubt be a big runner in the Gr 1 Computaform Sprint over 1000m on May 6.

In the Listed Oaks Trial Belle Rose carried joint-topweight and showed a lot of heart under Callan Murray to stave off the persistent challenge of the other topweight Wind Chill and win by 0,2 lengths. The unexposed Silvano filly Parabola, to whom they were giving 5,5kg, was a further 1,3 lengths back in third. Consequently, Belle Rose put herself in the Gr 1 SA Fillies Classic (1800m) picture. The form will also put Oriental Oak in with a chance next Saturday, as she beat Wind Chill by 1,75 lengths over 2000m last time when receiving 1,5kg. However, both fillies will have to go some to beat the comfortable Gr 2 Wilgerbosdrift Gauteng Fillies Guineas winner Smiling Blue Eyes, as well as the like of Orchid Island and Babbling Brook, who will both appreciate the step up to 1800m.

Champagne Haze is by Kahal and Belle Rose is by the stamina influence Golden Sword. Their half-brother Pierre Jourdan (Parade Leader) was the first to give notice of Vin Fizz’s influence, winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown in 2010, among other feature race successes.

In the Gr 2 Colorado King Stakes on Saturday, the Johan Janse van Vuuren-trained Australian-bred Teofilio colt Brazuca proved he stays the testing Turffontein 2000m when winning by a comfortable 3,1 lengths under Gavin Lerena. The runner up Deo Juvente, who was giving the winner 1kg, should come on from the run and will be a runner in the lucrative Gr 1 Premier’s Champion Challenge over the same course and distance on May 6. Third-placed French Navy clearly takes a while to get to his peak and master trainer Sean Tarry will no doubt have him spot on again for the Champions Challenge.

In the other big races on Saturday, the Corne Spies-trained Sail From Seattle filly Seattle Singer bounced back to her best to win the Gr 3 Sycamore Sprint over 1160m under Craig Zackey at odds of 28/1.

The Geoff Woodruff-trained Mogok gelding Pagoda easily won the Listed Derby Trial over 2000m under Gavin Lerena, signalling his SA Derby credentials, although he was only running off an 84 merit rating.

Lerena’s feature race treble thrilled his many fans, who were becoming concerned about the national log-leading jockeys rare drought of 71 rides without a winner.

He is now seven clear of Greg Cheyne in the race for the National Championship.

By David Thiselton

Joey Ramsden is beginning to mop up the Cape Town two-year-old races like a sponge and two more at Kenilworth on Saturday mean that he has now won five of the last seven plus the only Listed event so far.

Ossie Noach, who went on to win the last on the Glen Puller-trained Best Nut Ever, was able to make the most of a chance ride on 11-1 shot Speedpoint while Keagan de Melo made all on Favola to follow up Friday evening’s Greyville double.

Favola, Italian for fairy tale according to part-owner Gisela Burg, was backed from 8-1 to 9-2 and had odds-on stable companion Dynasty’s Blossom nearly two lengths back third. Ramsden sees a future for both fillies.

He said: “We will keep going for a bit with Favola. When Sihle Cele rode her first time his saddle was the size of my hand and it dug into her back while the next time she got into all sorts of trouble. Dynasty’s Blossom is a very nice filly but she needs to strengthen up so I may put here away. She reminds me a lot of Just Sensual.”

The Cape Fillies Guineas winner was put aside to develop after only one juvenile run and did not reappear until eight weeks before her classic triumph. Professor Brian, though, is belatedly making hay and the extraordinary way he completed a hat-trick in the 1 200m handicap suggests there is plenty of improvement still in the tank.

The 15-10 favourite, who carries Bernard Kantor’s colours but is part-owned by Brian and Kathy Finch, lost three lengths at the start and was soon six lengths off the pace. Grant van Niekerk had to switch left then right to get a run – “the jockey in front of me lugged in” – yet his mount was able to come away to win comfortably.

“He went in the wind even before his first start,” recalled Ramsden who put this year’s sustained improvement down to gelding as well as the wind op.

Apparently, though, it was nothing like so straightforward with the similarly-transformed Shall Be Free who made it four wins and a second from his last five starts under Richard Fourie in the mile handicap.

“It has taken me some time to figure him out and find his little quirks,” said Mike Robinson, the pained expression on his face reflecting weeks of mental torture as he sought to find the solution. Breeder and part-owner, Peter de Beyer, though, seemed to suggest it was all too obvious. “Simple really,” he said. “He doesn’t like going between other horses. He has to come either inside them, or outside.”

Fourie is only six short of his century after following up on top weight Big Ed in the Tab Handicap. Unfortunately the six-year-old entire pulled up sore and his rider had to dismount before the winner’s box. “He has done this before,” pointed out a hopeful-sounding Shane Humby.

Dean Kannemeyer decided to ease off with Weston when his Milnerton stable was hit by that well-publicised virus two months ago and he felt understandably vindicated when Grant Behr’s mount defied an 11-week absence in the Racing Association Maiden.

It was only in the last gasp that Aldo Domeyer got up on warm favourite Twilight Trip in the mile maiden but both he and Candice Bass-Robinson reckon there is more to come with the trainer explaining: “He is a big angular horse who has ability – it’s just a matter of putting it all together. We trained his mother, Love Is In The Air, who won the 2010 Majorca and he will improve.”

By Michael Clower

Jockey Mike Smith had so much confidence in Arrogate in the Dubai World Cup on Saturday night that he rode him the same way he used to ride the great mare Zenyatta, but he would not be drawn into saying which of the pair was better.

Arrogate’s earnings are now over US$17 million, which makes him the highest stakes earner in thoroughbred history.

After Arrogate had missed the break and been squeezed, Smith found himself in last position but remained calm having often been in that same position with the huge striding Zenyatta, whose only defeat was in her 20^th and final start.

However, Smith did make his move earlier on Arrogate than he used to on Zenyatta and steadily made up ground around the first turn and in the back straight.

However, at one stage his confidence was so high he geared him back a little bit, fearing he would hit the front too soon.

Around the final turn Arrogate moved from third last to third. Upon entering the straight an incident served to prove how strong the big horse is and how within himself he was moving. At that stage he received a hefty bump from the Mike de Kock-trained Mubtaahij, who was attempting to angle outward. However, he held the exact same line and didn’t seem to even notice the presence of the latter. He then cruised past the handy pair Gun Runner and Neolithic to win the US$10 million race as he liked by 2,25 lengths.

Up in the stands trainer Bob Baffert had a completely different take on the race. When he saw the sluggish start, doubt raced through his mind. “I was thinking maybe I shouldn’t have brought him, maybe he’s getting tired.” He talked about the “long ship” over  of a week, although added the horse had trained well in the last couple of days, so believed he would come into the race “fresh”. He saw the jockey sitting on the outside on Arrogate and thought, “Maybe Mike will look after him.” He admitted to then virtually writing Arrogate’s chances off and began concentrating more on his other runner, Hopportunity. However, when Arrogate made “a little move on the far turn”, Baffert said to himself “Wait a minute” and began having “a little hope”. He turned to his wife Jill as they turned for home and told her, “If he wins this race he is the most incredible horse I have ever seen”. Arrogate now had a target and Baffert knew all about his long stride. He admitted to becoming emotional at being involved with a horse who was producing a “Hollywood type finish”, such as was seen in movies like Sea Biscuit. He concluded by praising Smith for allowing Arrogate, whom he said was still a “big kid”, to gather himself after the unplanned start to the race.

Smith said Arrogate was a horse who “can do anything”, i.e. he can lead, come from last and they can go fast or slow, it doesn’t matter to him.

He added, “Look at him, he looks like he hasn’t taken a breath.”

Mubtaahij had a perfect trip until the bump at the top of the straight, but he still managed to fight on bravely for fourth and claim another placed finish for De Kock in the lucrative event. Mubtaahij earned a cheque of US$500,000 to end a disappointing Dubai Carnival for De Kock, at least by his high standards, on a high note.

In the latest Longines world rankings Arrogate was in joint first place on 127 with the phenomenal Australian mare Winx. This performance should take him to the top.

The now four-year-old lost on debut over six furlongs on April 17 last year, but has won his next seven starts, including four Gr 1s in succession over a mile and two furlongs (2000m).

He has twice beaten the previous darling of the American dirt, the seven-times Gr 1-winner California Chrome, first in the Breeders Cup Classic and then in the world’s richest thoroughbred horse race, the US$12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational.

Smith had previously said Arrogate was very much like his father Unbridled’s Song, on whom he won two Gr 1’s in the mid-nineties.

The grey colt’s laid back style of running means he looks to have plenty of racing still in him and the good news is Juddmonte Farms have said he will defend his Breeders Cup Classic crown next November.

By David Thiselton

Trainer Bob Baffert described Arrogate as “the greatest we’ve seen since Secretariat” following last night’s dramatic win in the Dubai World Cup. A strong statement? Perhaps. But only if you have yet to witness the “grey machine’s” amazing performance on a memorable night at Meydan.

Arrogate was sliced up and left for last at the jump but they don’t call jockey Mike Smith ‘Big Money Mike’ for nothing and it was his patience and experience that helped guide the amazing son of Unbridled’s Song to a memorable win. Fellow US raiders Gun Runner and  Neolithic finished second and third with Mike de Kock’s Mubtaahij bravely holding on for fourth.

Arrogate has only been racing for a year but is now the highest stakes earner in the history of the sport. Last night he added the $10million Gr1 Dubai World Cup to his resume following wins in wins in the Travers Stakes (G1), Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and the $12million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) in his last three outings.

When it was over, even his trainer couldn’t believe what Arrogate had done. “I was thinking, ‘Maybe I shouldn’t have brought him. Maybe he’s getting tired.’ … I thought, ‘If he can’t win, Mike [Smith] will take care of him and not abuse him.'”

But as Arrogate worked his way into contention, the Hall of Fame trainer’s mood shifted. “I thought then, ‘If he wins this race, he’s the most incredible horse I’ve ever seen,'” he said.

Baffert said he was glad he brought Arrogate to the desert, even beyond the prestige and purse money.

“Everybody who was here tonight is going to say, ‘I’m glad I was here to see that,'” he said. “If anybody wasn’t super impressed with that, they just don’t like horse racing. I still can’t believe he won the race.”

 

If it wasn’t for World War II the Merit Rating system that attracts mixed feeling out here today might never have existed.

Dick Whitford, regarded as the father of modern handicapping, was the chief officer of a British patrol ship during the war and whiled away the long hours of inactivity in his cabin creating a universal handicap of all racehorses in Britain.

He had little inclination towards the sport, but after a chance meeting with the sports editor of the Daily Telegraph, returned to sea armed with copies of annual form books and began to examine the results, plotting charts to link the horses and create evidence that racehorses were “almost exactly figurable”. Each horse acquired a row of ratings based on the best three or four runs out of seven and it became evident that on this basis horses were astonishingly consistent.

It dawned upon him that he would get nowhere without a broad outline of the racing spectrum from the best horse to the worst. He thus set about creating a single composite handicap of all the runners of 1941. Every horse was included with no special sections for two-year-olds, stayers or sprinters.

There were enormous complications and he confessed that he would not have continued had he not “kept making fascinating discoveries – groups of horses that meshed with each other with astonishing precision.” He achieved his goal by Autumn 1942 and to prove its worth translated the individual ratings into race ratings for current racemeetings and sent his predictions to the Daily Express and Raceform. They worked out “exceptionally well”.

In the meantime the legendary Phil Bull, who made a fortune out of betting on horses and  helping others do the same, had been doing very well since 1938 with a horseracing time ratings service he provided, which he then followed in 1943 with an equally successful annual book called “Best Horses”.

Bull had a mathematics degree and said that race times were meaningless unless the conformation of the track, the state of the going, wind strength and direction, and the pace at which the race was run was taken into account.

He developed a technique of calculating the real value of the time performance by mathematically assessing all the times recorded at a particular racemeeting after referring to the statistical analysis of previous times recorded at the same track. His time rating service was by mail order and with six winning years in the first seven, he was able to advertise  a profit of 23p for every one pound bet.

Whitford had started correspondence with Bull during the war and when it ended they arranged a meeting at a Newmarket racemeeting. It was the first time Bull, who didn’t suffer fools galdly, had met a kindred spirit and he invited Whitford to be his assistant on his Best Horses book.

The pair spent the summer going to the races, visiting stables, studs and sales rings and watching gallops, while Whitford did his handicaps in his spare time.

The book was compiled over the winter with Whitton producing the facts and figures and collecting photographs and Bull doing the writing.

Bull was regarded as one of racing’s finest ever writers, but by this time had all the symptoms of writer’s block. He fell behind in the mammoth task and the deadline for Best Horses was seldom met.

In 1947 an exasperated Whitford devised a shorthand version of Best Horses which included brief comments on all of the horses of that year together with his own form ratings and Bull’s time ratings. Bull immediately saw its market potential and so Timeform was born.

The Timeform Ratings were arrived at by co-ordinating the time ratings of Bull and the form ratings of Whitford and are today regarded as the definitive measure of racing merit.

Whitford left the business in 1949, but by 1962 the company published Timeform every week, Race Ratings for all races and Timeform racecards for all meetings, Flat and National Hunt, as well as producing the very popular annual book Racehorses which began in 1949.

Previously, the task of creating a comprehensive running handicap had been defeated by the fact that horses improve over time.

But Bull simply took the horse’s inherent merit and subtracted the Weight-For-Age allowance to arrive at a real rating, known today in South Africa as a “net rating.”

The Merit Rating system used throughout the world today is indebted to Whitford and Bull.

David Thiselton