The cold front which has brought heavy rains to KZN has made full work for Summerveld horses impossible. Trainer Justin Snaith, whose three charges Elusive Silva, It’s My Turn and Prince of Wales are at the top the boards for Friday night’s Gr 2 Betting World 1900, said it would consequently be impossible to predict just how well his charges would run.

Elusive Silva (Liesl King)

Snaith pointed out, on top of the horses’ interrupted program, another important aspect to training was for a horse to go into a race feeling well and he added, “They have been soaking wet for three days, there has been a huge amount of rain.”

However, on the bright side, he said the Summerveld polytrack had allowed the horses to canter and he had also been “over the moon” with the well-being of the horses at the time of the cold front’s arrival.

He also singled out Elusive Silva as a horse who had proven himself to be “useful” in soft conditions.

He added, “Above all it is important for racing to go ahead.”

Elusive Silva is the current Vodacom Durban July joint-second favourite, not surprisingly after his impressive win in the Listed Sledgehammer over 1800m at Greyville. Snaith pointed out he had needed that run and would still be well weighted for the Betting World 1900 as his merit rating of 99 happened to be at the top of one of the merit rated bands.

He said Prince Of Wales, a running on third in the Sledgehammer, had probably needed the run even more than Elusive Silva had and would now be 1kg better off for a two length beating.

Elusive Silva was in 16^th place on the first July log, while Prince of Wales was among the first five horses just outside the top twenty. The former will thus need a good run to solidify his place and the latter will need a big run to impress the panelists.

It’s My Turn (Liesl King)

It’s My Turn finished fourth in last year’s July. He will carry 60kg on Friday night and will have to give the whole field at least 2kg. It will be his first run since finishing a decent 5,65 length eighth in the Sun Met, where he carried a 2kg Gr 1 penalty. Interestingly he finished just 1,6 lengths behind the current July favourite Marinaresco in the Met at level weights. He will receive 4,5kg from the latter in the July, as things stand, yet Marinaresco is a 15/2 shot and It’s My Turn is at 22/1.

Snaith said It’s My Turn would not be at his best on Friday night as he had to ensure he lasted for the entire SA Champions Season. However, he rated him a July dark horse.

“He will be better weighted in the July than he was last year,” he concluded.

Snaith also spoke of the well-being of Zodiac Ruler, who made a decent start to his Champions Season campaign by finishing second in an Allowance Plate over 1400m and then third in the Gr 2 Daisy Guineas.

Zodiac Ruler was in 17^th place on the July log and It’s My Turn was in 18^th place.

Snaith said Krambambuli, whose last two runs have yielded wins in the Gr 2 Blue Label Telecoms Cape Stayers over 2800m at Kenilworth and the Non-Black Type Highland Night Cup over 2400m, would likely be weighted out of the Gold Cup, so this race was currently not on his list of targets. Krambambuli has virtually booked his July berth as he was in 13^th place on the log.

Meanwhile, the yard’s champion filly Bela-Bela will start her Champions Season campaign in the Gr 1 SA Fillies Sprint at Scottsville’s Festival Of Speed meeting. The connections, whilst keeping in mind how valuable she already is, would decide the rest of her Champions Season campaign after that race. Snaith said a tilt at the Gr 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge might be one of the options. Her two Gr 1 wins have been in the Woolavington 2000 and the Maine Chance Farms Paddock Stakes over 1800m and she is currently ninth on the July log.

By David Thiselton

The race meeting scheduled for Scottsville tomorrow has been postponed to Saturday 20^th May 2017.

A track inspection was carried out this morning by the Track Manager and a Trainer from Ashburton and it was agreed that there was no prospect of the race meeting going ahead as planned.

“Fortunately Turffontein is a standalone meeting on Saturday and hence, with the blessing of Phumelela, we have made the decision to postpone to this date,” said Gold Circle Racing Executive Raf Sheik.

More than 200mm has fallen over Greyville since Friday and a decision regarding the Betting World 1900 race meeting will be made closer to the time. The weather forecast suggests the sun will be out from tomorrow but clearly the turf track will need ideal weather conditions for it to dry sufficiently.

“For this reason we have kept Sunday as a Plan B option should the track require more time,” added Sheik.

“With our major race days on the horizon, we are very mindful that we need to avoid causing excessive damage to the racing surfaces while at the same keeping the disruption to the planned racing programmes to an absolute minimum.”

Gold Circle

You have no doubt heard of the jockey they call ‘The Magic Man’. Now, perhaps, the world of racing has witnessed the arrival of ‘The Young Wizard’.

At the age of just 20, South African-born Callan Murray this week made the biggest leap in rankings points in the entire evolution of TRC Global Rankings – more than any fellow jockey, any trainer, any owner or any sire.

The lofty comparison with Joao Moreira – ranked third in our latest classifications – is not invoked stylistically or in any other way superficially but strictly numerically. For, as we will see shortly, Murray is one of the riders who profiles like Moreira by our numbers. (With Murray headed for a three-month stint in Hong Kong the two will meet head-on.)

Joao Moreira & Callan Murray

Murray goes up 31 rankings points and 160 places to 109 for his G1 treble on Champions Day at Turffontein. He landed the Premier’s Champions Challenge (2000m) on Deo Juvente, the South African Nursery (1200m) on Mustaaqeem, and the Computaform Sprint (1000m) on Rafeef. Two of the three came for trainer Mike De Kock and in the colours of Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum, while Deo Juvente is trained by Geoff Woodruff and owned by the increasingly influential Mayfair Speculators.

Of course, a rider does not come without his book of rides. And a small sample can always just be a fluke. So, even if you are not convinced by Murray’s languid, relaxed, uber-cool ride on Deo Juvente, for instance, precedent suggests that winning three Group 1 races is a notable achievement, particularly in one so young.

The history of TRC Global Rankings goes back to 2014. On that day, we formed the initial rankings internally using the previous three years of results in Group and Graded races around the world. That window has shifted forward 174 times to this week’s classifications, and the system moves the competitors in each category of jockeys, owners, trainers and sires up or down in an attempt to minimise the number of future changes it has to make.

In other words, TRC Global Rankings is equally forward- and backward-looking. It measures past accomplishment – like all world rankings systems try to do – but it is unique in doing so predictively. In the context of statistics, this means that the maths we use tries to strip out randomness from every competitor’s results, smoothing their change in rankings points by learning what each win or loss really means.

We sometimes get asked why not simply aggregate Group and Graded wins to produce the classifications? And how can we rank competitors with fewer wins above more prolific rivals? The answer is that Group and Graded race performances must be placed in their proper context – how rare was the achievement in that part of the world? How good was the race independent of its grading? How much evidence is there that it is repeatable? – before the rankings can serve as more than an exercise in playing with numbers.

Less sophisticated rankings could not capture the brilliance of Moreira, or trainers like John Moore, if they merely used aggregation. And the system is betting heavily on South African Murray becoming a global star in the next few years.

– Thoroughbredracing.com

La Favourari made it three off the reel in the Royal Horse Pinnacle Stakes at Kenilworth yesterday but only after the race turned into a farce of theatre proportions.

Grant Van Niekerk (Nkosi Hlophe)

Tevez, at the time 2-1 favourite, played the lead role. His celebrated short-lived patience with the pens was seemingly at minimum and he came out of them as fired up as a bullet coming down the barrel. Unfortunately for him, and for the race, starter Fred Bosman had still to press the button and the gate mechanism proved totally unable to withstand over half a tonne of horseflesh at full surge.

“He had to wait a second and a half in the pens and then he just decided to go,” reported rider Donovan Dillon who recommended that his mount should not be asked to race again in view of the possibility of injury to the horse’s head.

Fortunately vet Eugene Reynders pronounced him unharmed but a number of the other six took too long to get their jockeys’ false start message and the fancied Kingston Passage (5-2) was promptly scratched by Brett Crawford who explained: “I wasn’t going to send him again. It was a five furlong race and his bubble was burst.”

Adam Marcus also decided that discretion was the better part of valour with longshot Prince Alfred and La Favourari was left to make all the running – but he had less than a length to spare over two of his three opponents.

“We had gone between 150 and 250m and that took a lot out of him,” reported Grant van Niekerk. “But he showed guts finishing the way he did after what happened.”

It wasn’t only the horses and their connections who were put out but punters and bookmakers too. One of the former complained that he had been counting on an all-the-way romp from Kingston Passage while course layer Bertie Dobbie said: “Tevez and Kingston Passage were the only two horses I laid – and then I had to give all the money back again!”

La Favourari (Liesl King)

Dillon, though, wasted little time in gaining compensation. In the Equine Online Pinnacle Stakes 40 minutes later he decided to make the most of Billy Prestage’s ‘go to the front and lead all the way’ instructions and shortly after halfway he was ten lengths clear. He was still eight in front 200m out but from that point on his mount started to die like a wilting flower and he had less than half a length left at the line.

Prestage, still hoping for the long-overdue rain to appear, quipped: “He handles the wet – although not when it’s as wet as the polytrack was in Greyville today!”

Van Niekerk stole the riding honours with a five-timer- including two winners for Geoff Woodruff and two for Andre Nel – although his day started badly and expensively with a failed objection and a R3 000 fine for using his whip with excessive frequency.

Snaith Racing had its first winner in the famous Marsh Shirtliff colours with Forest Prince in the first while the stable and Bernard Fayd’Herbe promptly doubled up with Miss Katalin.

By Michael Clower

Turffontein Inside track has an eight race meeting tomorrow and three of the Pick 6 legs are fillies and mares handicaps, so some healthy exotic dividends are on the cards.

Anthony Delpech (Nkosi Hlophe)

In the first leg of the Pick 6, Let It Flow is made the best bet of the day despite being up against two promising sorts in Think Twice and Dame Kelly. On debut Let It Flow was backed in at quite long odds, but had her chances severely affected by the winner jumping sideways at the start. She had to be checked and effectively lost two or three lengths, yet ran on strongly to lose by 0,5 lengths in the 1200m event. The stipendiary stewards overruled the subsequent objection. The Judpot filly could make amends here from a good draw over the same trip around the turn and Marco van Rensburg keeps the ride. On formlines, she comes out better than both Think Twice and Dame Kelly and has a better draw too. Both of the latter pair look promising and should improve from their respective debuts. Think Twice was only run out of it by two decent sorts on debut over 1400m and should be effective over this trip. Dame Kelly was staying on strongly over 1160m and has a fair draw here under Anthony Delpech. A Pick 6 banker has to be found somewhere and Let It Flow is awarded the role.

Earlier, in the first leg of the PA, the Sean Tarry-trained Querari colt Play The Night showed good pace from a difficult draw on debut in a decent field over 1000m down the Turffontein straight and found no extra late. He should relish the step up in trip and has a fair draw. He hasn’t run since that debut on February 7, but is given the tentative vote ahead of Pillaroftheearth. The latter has run second in both of his starts over 1000m and 1200m respectively and comes out better than the selection on paper, but perhaps does not have as much scope for improvement.

The second leg of the Pick 6 is a Maiden for fillies and mares over 1450m and three horses, Knysna Rose, Chapati and Grey Missile, might be enough for the Pick 6. Knysna Rose is a hard knocker over this trip. Chapati is a talented filly, but hasn’t run since September last year. Grey Missile is a scopey two-year-old, who will relish the step up in trip. All three of these fillies have fair draws. Key Hostess has some good form, but has a tough draw and ran below par when stepped up to this trip last time. However, she is by Fort Wood so could be dangerous. Boudica has run second in her last two starts over this sort of trip and is well drawn, but does not have as much scope as the first three selections.

Sean Tarry (Nkosi Hlophe)

In the third leg of the Pick 6, a MR 73 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1450m, Diamond Noir makes appeal as an improving sort who went close over course and distance last time. She now has a tough draw but Jockey’s-Championship favourite Delpech is aboard. Movie Award is well drawn over a suitable trip and has dropped to a merit rating two points lower than her highest winning mark, so must be considered in a weaker field than she has been facing lately. Burundi Bush is effective from 1200m up to this trip and is in fine form, so must go into the equation off a three point higher mark than her latest win. However, it is an open race and wider perms can be considered.

In the next leg over 1800m, Parisienne Chic drops from feature race company into an ordinary handicap and is drawn in pole over a suitable trip, so should go close. However, beyond her it is another typically open fillies and mares handicap.

The penultimate leg of the Pick 6 over 1800m is the most open race of the day, although the three that make most appeal are Fish River Canyon, My Angelface and September Bloom. Fish River Canyon has caught the eye before and this is her perfect trip. She has been chosen on those two grounds and also due to her merit rating having dropped to an attractive mark. However, on the downside, she has a wide draw to overcome. My Angelface has her first run out of the maidens, but as a Northern Hemisphere-bred horse she is six months younger than her contemporaries so should be coming into her own only now. She starts handicapping off a reasonable mark. September Bloom is improving in the typical fashion of a Lucky Houdalakis-trained horse and is interesting with first time blinkers on, having gone close over 200m further last time. Furthermore, she is drawn in pole.

The last leg of the Pick 6 and PA is a tough sprint handicap over 1000m, but three in form horses are well drawn, Le Tigre, Starcraft Prince and Roman Evening. They are the sole choices for the Pick 6, although cannot be considered confident ones.

By David Thiselton