VDJ Barometer – May 29
PUBLISHED: May 24, 2017
A weekly update from Andrew Harrison focused on events surrounding the Vodacom Durban July, to be run over 2200m at Greyville Racecourse on Saturday July 1…
There were a few worried faces come last Friday night after the running of the Gr2 Betting World 1900 as a host of Vodacom Durban July hopefuls failed to deliver on expectations, the one beaming face in the crowd that of Duncan Howells after Ten Gun Salute’s scintillating performance to cement his place in the July field.
There were excuses aplenty, many labelling the soft ground as the main culprit for some below par performances, but it was a race of contrasts.
As expected, the front-running Serissa did the donkey work but hardly set the track alight. On his tail and in the box seat throughout was stable companion Tilbury Fort. When Serissa fell away in the straight, Tilbury Fort was left with a clear run to the wire but stayed on for second rather than quicken. Last year’s Investec Derby winner and fourth in the July, It’s My Turn, ran a similar race but there looks to be plenty of meat left on that bone.
In stark contrast was the performance of Ten Gun Salute. He raced wide throughout and only had Mr Winsome behind him at the top of the straight. But when the button was pushed he quickened instantly past favourite Elusive Silva and swallowed up the rest of the opposition in a matter of strides.
Mr Winsome was also doing his best work late and Dean Kannemeyer must now be in two minds whether to take advantage of the final supplementary stage for the July.
Ten Gun Salute and Mr Winsome obviously revelled in the going but it was a particularly good effort from the winner who had been in a race against time to get ready for the race after pulling a back muscle when trailing in last in the Drill Hall Stakes two weeks prior.
Ten Gun Salute was one of the fancied runners in last year’s July and now a year older and assured of a place in the field, his current odds of 18-1 look fairly generous in spite of being cut from 25-1 after this victory.
Of the balance, Elusive Silva was running on well enough to suggest that he cannot be written off come July 1. This was his second outing after a lengthy break and he may just have come up flat on the night. Banner Hill, Prince Of Wales, Macduff, Master Switch, Copper Pot and Rocket Ball all have work to do.
Thirty minutes later Investec Cape Derby winner Edict Of Nates ran a cracking July warm-up in an Allowance Plate. Winner, Crowd Pleaser, is smart in his own right and led all the way but Edict Of Nantes, giving the winner 6kg, was closing the gap quickly and did his July chances no harm at all. The race was switched to the poly surface and favourite Secret Captain found himself out-paced at the business end. He ran a similar race in the Daisy Guineas where he stayed on for second. He gets another bite at the cherry in the Gr1 Daily News 2000 but gives the impression that he is still immature and will be a better horse next season.
Last year’s winner, The Conglomerate, and Algoa Cup winner Nebula were up next in a Pinnacle Stakes, the latter showing his well-being after taking a heavy fall at his previous start. He will go the 2200m trip of the July for the first time come July 1 but on last Friday’s evidence he should see out the trip comfortably.
The Conglomerate was not asked many questions and has been relatively lightly raced this season. He raced handy throughout but was never in the hunt for the winner’s cheque as Anton Marcus nursed him home under a few back-handers. An each-way nibble at 33-1 may not be a sign of madness.
On Saturday at Turffontein, The Elmo Effect failed to feature in a Pinnacle Stakes event and his chances of making the July line-up look slim.
By Andrew Harrison
2017 Vodacom Durban July ante-post betting guide [as at 2:51pm May 29]:
11/2 Marinaresco; 6/1 Al Sahem; 8/1 Edict Of Nantes; 10/1 Black Arthur; 11/1 Elusive Silva; 12/1 Its My Turn; 16/1 Nebula, Ten Gun Salute; 18/1 Horizon; 20/1 Saratoga Dancer, The Conglomerate; 25/1 Krambambuli, Captain America; 28/1 Master Switch, Copper Force, Pagoda, Zodiac Ruler; 30/1 Brazuca; 33/1 Orchid Island, Africa Rising, Master Sabina, Bela-Bela, French Navy; 35/1 Tilbury Fort, Nightingale; 50/1 Liege; 80/1 Smiling Blue Eyes; 100/1 Girl On The Run, Safe Harbour, Silver Mountain, Witchcraft, Banner Hill, Trophy Wife; 150/1 Royal Badge; 200/1 Macduff; 300/1 The Elmo Effect;
Odds courtesy of www.trackandball.co.za and subject to change
Joey Ramsden’s stable dominates betting
PUBLISHED: May 24, 2017
Ramsden sends out three runners in the Tsogo Sun Sprint and all of them have top jockeys booked…
Runners from the Joey Ramsden stable dominate the betting for the R1-million Tsogo Sun Sprint over 1200m at Scottsville on Saturday.
All four Grade 1 races will be run over 1200m and form a Jackpot of Grade 1s attracting the best sprinters in the country.
Ramsden sends out three runners in the Tsogo Sun Sprint and all of them have top jockeys booked. Attenborough, to be ridden by Anton Marcus, is a weak 5-1 favourite while Brutal Force, with Piere Strydom in the irons, is at 7-1. Table Bay is the mount of Anthony Delpech and is quoted at 9-1.
Local hopeful London Call, from the Mark Dixon yard, has opened at 7-1, and there is 8-1 available about dual Guineas-winner Janoobi and Brett Crawford’s Search Party.
Strydom won the race last year on Talktothestars and Coenie de Beer’s runner is quoted at 12-1 to defend his crown. Chase Maujean takes the ride.
The four Grade 1’s also form part of a carryover-boosted Pick 6 pool at Scottsville on Saturday that is expected to top R3million.
Betting on the four Grade 1 Sprint races at Scottsville on Saturday:
Tsogo Sun Sprint: 5-1 Attenborough; 7-1 Brutal Force, London Call, 8-1 Janoobi, Search Party, 9-1 Table Bay; 10-1 Bull Valley, 11-1 Sergeant Hardy; 12-1 Talktothestars; 14-1 and upwards others.
SA Fillies Sprint: 22-10 Carry On Alice; 9-2 Live Life; 11-2 Just Sensual; 6-1 The Secret Is Out; 8-1 Real Princess; 10-1 Vision To Kill, Bela-Bela1; 11-1 Joan Ranger; 12-1 Jo’s Bond, Sail; 16-1 Elusivenchantment; 40-1 Miss Varlicious
Gold Medallion: 16-10 Naafer; 9-2 Sand And Sea; 7-1 Keanan’s Rock; 8-1 Al Mariachi; 10-1 Sir Frenchie, Woljayrine; 11-1 Varallo; 12-1 and upwards others.
Allan Robertson: 7-2 Green Plains; 5-1 Daring Diva; 6-1 Call To Account; 7-1 Crymeariver, Neptune’s Rain; 10-1 Gold Image; 14-1 and upwards others.
TABNews
‘Stars’ back with shoes
PUBLISHED: May 24, 2017
Talktothestars won last years Tsogo Sun Sprint unshod, can he do it again with alumites?…
Trainer Coenie de Beer surprised the racing world when he saddled his four-year-old gelding Talktothestars, unshod, to win the Gr1 Tsogo Sun Sprint over 1200m at Scottsville’s Sprint Festival last year. Ridden by Piere Strydom, he romped home ahead of African Ruler and Exelero. He faces Exelero again in the Tsogo Sun Sprint on Saturday, giving the bottom weight an extra kilo.
Racing unshod is not uncommon, but racing unshod in a Gr1 is unusual to say the least but De Beer commented after the race last year: “There shouldn’t be such a fuss about a horse racing without shoes. Traditionally this is the way they raced, unshod or at times fitted with steel shoes. In the days before shoe declarations I’d say the majority of trainers raced their runners in steel shoes, then some smarty-pants and a few bored punters came up with inventive stories around alumites and they changed people’s perceptions.
“There are racing fans who believe horses are only capable of winning when they are declared to race with alumites. This is nonsense, they can also win in steels or without shoes altogether. Trainers have exploited this situation at times, but for me it’s about getting a horse fit and ready to win. I don’t consider shoes a factor, even less so recently.”
However, De Beer has returned to the norm. Talktothestars has raced in alumites at his last two starts and has been declared to run in them again on Saturday where he is out to defend his crown.
After last year’s victory he was rated the top horse in the country and was deservedly voted Equus Champion Sprinter. Not all has gone his way this term and many have written him off; so to the handicappers who have dropped him 10 pounds in the ratings from 123 to Saturday’s 113.
No matter the rating drop, he still heads the handicap on Saturday but there were signs that he is returning to his best form as he rattled home to run hot favourite Carry On Alice out of second place behind Rafeef in the recent Gr1 Computaform Sprint. He finished second to Carry On Alice in that same race last year before winning at Scottsville and those that believe that a horse’s form is cyclical will be having a dab come Saturday.
“He’s a horse that doesn’t take a lot of work,” said De Beer. He knows what to do and he does it, he conditions himself.” This time he won’t be ‘barefoot’.
By Andrew Harrison
Master Sabina aimed at the July
PUBLISHED: May 24, 2017
Two-time winner of the Sansui Summer Cup, Master Sabina, to run in the Vodacom Durban July…
Master Sabina, winner of the last two runnings of the Sansui Summer Cup for Geoff Woodruff, will run in the Vodacom Durban July for only the second time.
Michael de Broglio’s seven-year-old was a 20-1 chance when ninth in last year’s race and this time he will be prepared by Justin Snaith who took over the gelding last week.
Jonathan Snaith said: “He may run first in the Rising Sun Gold Challenge on June 10 for a gallop or go straight to the July.”
Silver Mountain, beaten little more than a head by Alexis in last season’s Tibouchina Stakes, will try to go one better in the Greyville June 10 Grade 2. Candice Bass-Robinson, who will also run her Klawervlei Majorca winner Nightingale in the race, reports that Silver Mountain has settled in well after being sent from Cape Town around ten days ago.
By Michael Clower
Carry On Alice sets the standard
PUBLISHED: May 24, 2017
Carry On Alice will be hard to beat, but she faces one of the strongest fields lined up for this race…
The SA Fillies Sprint over 1200m at Scottsville on Saturday will see a previous winner of this race Carry On Alice attempting to win her fifth career Gr 1 and amongst the dangers will be a three-year-old, Just Sensual, whose only Gr 1 win has been over a mile.
Carry On Alice was relaxed behind the pacemaker two years ago when beating the champion filly Alboran Sea by 1,75 lengths. Last year, when a forgettable fifth, she did not settle in behind horses and the gaps didn’t open in time either. Furthermore, she might have been above herself, as the Sean Tarry yard was reportedly under a cloud at the time.
The full width of the track is being used this year and there is a small field too, which will favour her, as she has never been a horse who needs cover. With daylight in front of her she can use her high cruising speed to its maximum effect before delivering her famous kick. She will be hard to beat, but she does face one of the strongest fields to have lined up for this race in recent times.
Just Sensual showed good pace over 1200m and 1400m early in her career and coupled it with a tremendous turn of foot. Subsequent to her Cape Fillies Guineas win she ran unplaced in the CTS Mile and was then much more comfortable over the 1400m of the Gr 3 Prix du Cap. In the latter race she showed good gate speed and early pace and then moved up effortlessly under the hands in the straight. She showed a fine turn of foot when asked the question and won cosily. In recent times the infamous draw bias at Scottsville appears to have evened out, so her high draw of 12 out of 12 is unlikely to be a disadvantage.
The Secret Is Out, winner of last year’s Gr 1 Allan Robertson at this meeting, is one of the horses who has proved the draw down the Scottsville straight is no longer a factor. At the end of April she won the Gr 3 Poinsettia Stakes over course and distance from the very outside draw of 14, despite carrying a 3kg Gr 1 penalty. Scottsville is a course horses either love or hate and she has won all three of her starts there. She had been a touch disappointing this season, but three of her defeats were over 1400m. Her career record shows she has only once been defeated over a sprint trip. Furthermore, trainer Vaughan Marshall admitted she had bled in her second outing of the season last November and it had been “a long hard road back.”
Fellow three-year-old Live Life was receiving 1kg from The Secret Is Out in the Poinsettia and was beaten 0,55 lengths. However, she didn’t have cover the whole way and was forced to go for home early, as opposed to her win in the CTS Sprint over the Kenilworth 1200, where she came from off the pace and won full of running despite having to be switched in the closing stages. Earlier, Live Life had beaten Carry On Alice in the Gr 2 Sceptre Stakes by 0,75 lengths on terms 2kg worse than weight for age and on that occasion he came from last.
Vision To Kill showed good cruising speed in the Poinsettia and flew up for second, but will be 2kg worse off with Live Life, whom she beat by a short-head.
“Class” in horseracing has been defined as those who are supreme at middle distances but also have the speed to compete and possibly beat the best sprinters at their game. Bela-Bela, whose two Gr 1 wins have been over 2000m and 1800m, fits this bill. She lost a couple of lengths on her debut over 1000m and still won easily. That was her only ever sprint start, but she has always given the impression she has a lot of speed as she is always on the bridle in the running over further.
Last year Real Princess showed good cruising speed and a tremendous turn of foot, but on this season’s form she is held by Carry On Alice, Live Life, The Secret Is Out and Jo’s Bond and will need to bounce back.
Jo’s Bond beat Carry On Alice in the Gr 2 Southern Cross Stakes over 1000m when receiving only 2kg and the latter duly reversed form at level weights in the Gr 1 Cape Flying Championships. Jo’s Bond is seen as a 1000m specialist, but this imposing daughter of Captain Al did turn it on impressively in the Listed Kwazulu-Natal Stakes over the Scottsville 1000m from just off the pace, which gives some hope.
The consistent Joan Ranger has speed coupled with a kick and it would be no surprise to see her repeat her third place finish of last year.
Elusivenchantment was a 2,55 length sixth last year and has been beaten twice over course and distance by Joan Ranger, while Jo’s Bond has beaten her twice over 1000m at level weights this season.
Sail won a Maiden Juvenile Plate over course and distance by 4,75 lengths just over a year ago. However, she has consistently been just off the best over further and is up against it here too.
Miss Varlicious is the lowest rated runner and looks held on Poinsettia form.
By David Thiselton









