David Thiselton

The Vaal has a meeting today where there look to be some fair opportunities for punters.  The first race is a Juvenile Plate over 1000m and the only winner in the line up, Arctic Skyline, looks the one to beat of those to have run as she showed good gatespeed and pace last time over this trip and  stayed on at the end. She does have to give 3kg to all of the other fillies in the race including On Cue who also has the advantage of a 4kg claimer aboard which in real terms gives her a 7kg weight advantage.Therefore On Cue will be a threat as she was up with the pace and stayed on last time for a 3,25 length third over this trip although her time was not great. Of the first timers Voltron has been backed into favourite. She is by the Listed-winning Jet Master stallion Lance out of a one-time winning Jay Peg mare over 1200m.  In the second race over 1800m Tree Tumbo is a typically improving four-year-old gelding by Silvano who should produce his usual resolute finish. Nartje has substance and plenty of scope for improvement so has been selected to run second having caught the eye last time running second over this trip to the smart Second Base. Ballet Shoes is easily the best weighted horse officially. However, she was beaten three lengths by Tree Tumbo when they last met over 2000m and faces him on the same terms. On the other hand she will prefer this shorter trip.In the first third over 1600m Mauby was doing her best work late last time when a one length third over this trip in first-time binkers. She has scope and can now start coming into her own so is the one to beat. Aryaam does not have as much scope as Mauby but on pedigree, being by Dynasty out of an Asiatic Boy mare who won five races from 1600m to 2000m, she should relsh the step up in trip and should be included. Both of these horses have low draws so the risk averse might want to include others in their exotics in case low numbers are a disadvantage on the day. Electric Boots can earn if reproducing his second over 1700m in early November.  Winston’s Nanny is improving and can also be considered for all exotics after moving up over 1800m last time in the soft not finding exra and now dropping back to 1600m. Gypsy Magic has shown glimpses of ability too.In the first leg of the Jackpot Belle Of Belize is made the best of the day. She is a typically rangy daughter of Ideal World and was caught wide throughout last time around the turn over 1400m which blunted her finish. She now has a high draw down the straight, which is sometimes favourable, and this big filly should relish the step up in trip. Rosaprima stayed on well in her penultimate start over 1400m so was a touch disappointing when going over 1600m last time and finishing a five length fourth. However, she did have a low draw that day and perhaps her higher draw this time might see her involved in the finish as her pedigree suggests she should relish the step up from 1400m. She looks the only real threat.    In the fifth race over 2400m Sophia’s First stayed on late over 1800m last time and might enjoy this trip. She is by Noble Tune. who imparts stamina, but her dam by Doowaly was a sprinter and her only previous runner, Merengo by Flying The Flag, is also a sprinter so there are some doubts. Masaaken has always struck as a staying type and was too handy last time when  fiishing behind Sophia’s First. Attentive finished second in the soft over this trip last time but he would have been vulnerale to any horse with a finish that day as he looked to have had enough by the end. Ball Rolling and Wishionaire are worth including in the sort of race which could produce an upset. In the sixth over 1400m Rio’s Winter has class and will enjoy the step up in trip from 1200 and would also prefer being ridden more conservatively than she was last time as she packs a strong finish. Querari Ferrari is a scopey sort who could still improve. Christmas Flower does not look a straight forward horse but has some class so can’t be ignored. In the seventh over 1400m Bold Jazz drops back down to 1400m and his 2,25 length fourth to the still unbeaten Paisley Park in the Listed Secretariat Stakes reads well , especially as he was giving the latter 2kg. He was also only 1,75 lengths behind the smart Copper Mountain, from whom he received only 2,5kg.The eighth is a competitive sprint and Golden Belle is the selection as she is capable of top class performances but is none too reliable. Sarah, Risk Taker, Before The Dawn, Double “O” Eight and Pool Party are also capable of winning.      

Andrew Harrison

PUNTERS are unlikely to have it easy at Hollywoodbets Scottsville today where they are faced with a seriously tricky card. At first glance there appear to be a few obvious contenders but on closer dissection of the form, that is not always the case.

In the card opener Crested Eagle has improved with every outing and was unlucky to have an objection on his behalf go against him. Many seasoned observers were puzzled at the decision but that’s now water in the sea. This is a new race but with many first timers in the line-up the betting will probably be your best guide.

Vaal-based Ashley Fortune sends out Silvery Blue to his second start and the gelding found solid market support on debut where he finished a modest fourth. The experience is likely to have brought him on lengths.   Royal Virtue is another to have found solid market support when third behind Crested Eagle and hotly favoured stable companion Edgartown so can also improve. Of the unraced, all of Waterberry Lane, Lord Varsy, Good Traveller and Spina Zonke should all be on the radar.

Sugar And Spice looks the obvious choice in the second as he has gone close over course and distance and also goes well for this apprentice. One is likely to get a decent price on Sihamba Sonke who gave his apprentice rider a difficult time with first time blinkers. She pulled hard and never got in from a wide draw and can make big improvement down the straight over this shorter trip.

Masango Machine steps up in trip for the third and has made steady improvement leading into this race. He was running on nicely last time out and the extra furlong should suit. In a tricky maiden with little solid form to go on, Bourbon Beat is one to keep an eye on. He made good improvement second time out and comes from an in-form yard. Coromandle has the worst of the draw but meets a particularly weak field. This is his first local run for a new stable and is the first ride back in KZN for Anton Marcus who only has two rides carded!

In the fourth, Komodosan has had two horrific draws in his first two starts and now has the best gate. He was much improved at his second outing and should still have a few more lengths to come. Radames was a beaten even money chance last run. He is consistent and lightly raced and looks the biggest threat to the selection. Techno Savvy has shown some improvement and can find the frame while Uplifted returns from a lengthy break but has shown that he stays the trip and the blinkers should help.

In the fifth, three-on-the-bounce is no easy task from a wide draw but Sea Venture has come to hand of late and won well at her last two. She gets a 4kg claimer up to nullify her two-point rise in the handicap. On the flip side of the coin, Silva Magic was beaten less than a length by Sea Venture when last they met but the apprentice claim could nullify the 0.5kg reverse in the weights. Of the others, Mrs Hotline ran no sort of race last time out and beat Sea Venture in her last win. Polygonshopping was not far off in her handicap debut and gets first time blinkers.

The sixth is wide open. Washington Square may just have needed his last outing and he has good form over this course and distance. At best should have a big say. Charlie-Fox is quick and goes well on this course. He only has 48kg to shoulder and has drawn on the ‘right’ side of the track. The opposition will have to go and fetch him to win. Calvino, down in class, and Alphamikefoxtrot are others to consider.

Global Ash arrived in KZN with a reputation but took time to acclimatise. However, he showed his worth when bolting home last time out and although up against stronger here he looks to have plenty of scope. Spirit Of My Fate has put in two promising runs since his maiden win and looks capable of further improvement while Arctic Tune won well first up out of the maidens and looks useful. However, he does face a better field here and the draw is a concern.

In the last, Shape Of You has improved with every outing and was narrowly beaten from a difficult draw last start. From pole position she should have every chance of going one better. Emerald Isla was running on well from the worst of the draw last outing. She has a much better draw here and with a much in form apprentice up with a 2.5kg claim she could be the pick of the stable pair in spite of the stable rider being aboard Peanut Butter who has been rested and has her first outing for the stable. Flymefree was a beaten favourite last run but the blinkers come off and she can make amends while Princess Maxi has a difficult draw but improved nicely at her second outing and should be running at them late.

David Thiselton

THE Grade 2 Gauteng Guineas and the Grade 2 Wilgerbosdrift Gauteng Flies Guineas form the respective first legs of the SA Triple Crown and Wilgerbosdrift Triple Tiara and both races are full of class and intrigue.

War Of Athena looks the one to beat in the fillies race where she faces arch rival Anything Goes. War Of Athena has more stamina in her pedigree than Anything Goes and takes a while to wind up in the straight so will want a fast pace. This is particularly in view of Anything Goes’ terrific turn of foot. War Of Athena has two stable companions in the race and all three of this coupling have the same ownership. Therefore, it could be that the lowly rated Only The Brave is in to ensure a decent pace. War Of Athena has only beaten Anything Goes once in three outings and that was last time out in the Three Troikas over 1400m where she won by a cosy 1,75 lengths. However, she was giving the latter 1kg and Anything Goes probably needed it too as she was returning from a layoff. However, another clue to this race can be taken from the Grade 1 Thekwini where War Of Athena had a bad draw compared to Anything Goes’s good draw. War Of Athena simply ran out of straight that day in her bid to catch Anything Goes. This time War Of Athena has the better draw and the long straight will give her more time to make up the deficit. Miss Elegance is improving and has the form to fill the trifecta. Castle Durrow is a long-striding sort who is improving and she could also be in the shake up. Caralluma has some class but still has to prove she stays this trip. Gee For Go won the Grade 3 Fillies Mile over this course and distance but was beaten six lengths by Mis Elegance over this trip last time at these same weights. Only The Brave ensured a good pace in the Three Troikas by challenging Caralluma in front but as far as winning chances go she has a double figure number of lengths to find. 

In the Gauteng Guineas Catch Twentytwo will enjoy the step back to the Dingaans distance and he has landed a plum draw. He proved his Dingaans win was no fluke by following up in the Grade 3 Tony Ruffel Stakes over 1400m. He is blossoming and is the one to beat. Copper Mountain should relish the step up in trip on pedigree and running style. He was staying on in the Tony Ruffel and finished a two length third at level weights with Catchtwentytwo. He is by Noble Tune out of a Fort Wood mare whose only win was over 2000m. He is drawn three and could be the surprise package. Second Base is a long-strider who showed a fine turn of foot when winning the Grade 3 Sea Cottage Stakes over 1800m, so this shorter trip should not bother him. That race was just two weeks ago which is one slight concern and he also has a tricky draw of seven out of nine. Interestingly his only defeat was when beaten 5,5 lengths into fourth by Copper Mountain over 1200m. Malmoos has won all three of his starts at Turffontein impressively and followed up by winning the Grade 3 Concorde Cup over this trip at Kenilworth. He was then unlucky when unplaced in the Cape Guineas although he did not look likely to win. That race was seven weeks ago so he should have recovered and he has pole position in his first start back at altitude. Mount Pleasant is easily the highest rated horse in the race but the jury is out because he flopped in his first try at this trip having beaten older horses of the like of Cirillo over 1450m before that.  It might have just been an off day and he must be included in all exotics. Eliud has shown glimpses of class and could earn and Bingwa was a 2,50 length third in the Dingaans but only fifth in the Tony Ruffel. Kingsley’s Heart looks held by Copper Mountain and this is a big step up in class for Namib Desert.              

David Thiselton

THE Vaal stages a low key meeting today before the Highveld’s Autumn feature season begins on Saturday at Turffontein with the always awaited Guineas meeting.

A MR 94 handicap over 1000m and a Pinnacle Stakes event over 1500m are the two highest rated events today.

In the former the Paul Peter-trained Willow Magic gelding Godswood makes most appeal. This horse has clearly been rated since day one as he attracted betting support in all of his maiden starts including on debut. Nothing much went his way in those early races and he was also becoming a bit heavy due to haemoconcentrating. He had the necessary gelding and since then has not looked back. In his first run as a gelding he finished unplaced in a strong 1160m event won by the promising Bartholdi. He has since run twice over 1000m and won by 2,50 lengths and 2,75 lengths respectively. In his last start he strode out well just off the pace and quickened well and won with a bit in hand. He looks to be on the up so could overhaul the speedy Valyrian King close to home. The latter has blitzed them in his last two starts and is four points higher in the ratings. Godswood, on the other hand has to overcome a six point raise, but is given the nod on the basis that he has not had as much time to establish himself as Valyrian King so could still be ahead of the handicapper. The pair might be vulnerable late in the race to Spanish Boy, who proved he had a touch of class last time out when a meritorious third in the Grand Heritage. This trip will be on the sharp side but he will be running at the leaders late in the day. 

In the Pinnacle event Wisteria Walk proved she is in fine fettle last time when waltzing clear to won a Graduation Plate over 1400m by four lengths. She ran on from a handy position in a small field that day and can do the same in this field of five. Rouge Allure has proved lately she is good over further than this, but through most of her career this 1500m trip would have seemed ideal. She has pole position too and could be a threat. Gallic Princess has turned out to be a useful sprinter but is effective over this trip too so as the officially best weighted horse she could be dangerous in this small field, especially if the pace turns out to be slow. Saragon has some class and is effective from 1400m to 1800m so also has a shout. However, this is in fact the first time she has travelled away from her home course of Turffontein so this might be a learning experience. Prince Nicole is not out of it at the weights being just 2,5kg under sufferance with Gallic Princess and being ridden by a 1.5kg claimer. However, this will be the first time she has run over this far. She is by miler Soft Falling Rain out of Captain Al mare Reason To Believe, who was a KRA Fillies Guineas runner up. 

The value play of the day comes in the last race. Tulip Way did not stay 2000m last time and finished last and now reverts to a trip which should suit perfectly. She is drawn well and has Muzi Yeni up and she has dropped significantly in the merit ratings. She was off for a year from November 2019 to December 2019 but it was not for a serious injury and if recapturing her earlier form between 1400m and 1600m she should go close. In fact she could even go close on her first two comeback efforts where she ran fourth and fifth respectively over 1400m and was not at all disgraced. Bella Rosa will likely be favourite for this event, as she is knocking on the door and is distance suited. She is capable of a strong finish if it pans out well so she will need to be dropped out from a wide draw to find cover. Bitter Wind is also a fascinating runner here as she won her maiden from start to finish over 1600m and has raced a bit keenly in her last two down the straight over 1400m and 1500m respectively when held up off the pace. She now has the ideal pole position draw to lead again and should be involved. Keepingthepeace won her maiden over 1600m easily and has been given a reasonable opening merit rating of 79 so she could also be involved. Rock You is capable of winning this but a concern is that the first time cheekpieces last time are now replaced with blinkers. She has a wide draw so will need to be restrained early tin order to drop out or slot in and the blinkers might make this tougher to achieve for Craig Zackey.            

David Thiselton

MUZI YENI is bracing himself for the Grade 2 Wilgerbosdrift Gauteng Fillies Guineas on Saturday where he will be riding the rising star, the Paul Matchett-trained War Of Athena.

Yeni said the recent heavy rains had interrupted her preparation slightly but it will be the same for her arch rival Anything Goes as both fillies are residents of Randjesfontein.

Yeni said, “She is doing well and as far as I am concerned she is flying. I have always got to respect Anything Goes and keep an eye on her as she has a tremendous turn of foot whereas War Of Athena is one who unwinds. The long Turffontein straight will be in our favour but a slow pace will favour Anything Goes.”

There are only seven runners and a small field usually leads to a slow pace.

However, War Of Athena has two stable companions, Gee For Go and Only The Brave, in the race and all three stablemates have the same ownership of RS Wentzel and RE Waterman-Wentzel.

A plan might be concocted to ensure a good pace and this looks particularly possible due to the low rating of Only The Brave. She might be the one who can afford to be sacrificed.

The tally between the star fillies stands at Anything Goes two War Of Athena one.

However, if the saying “you are only as good as your last race” is anything to go by War Of Athena has the edge as she downed Anything Goes by 1,75 lengths in the Grade 3 Three Troikas last time over 1400m. However, she was receiving 1kg from her that day and the latter likely needed it as she was returning from a layoff.

Possibly in War Of Athena’s favour is her pedigree which contains more stamina than Anythings Goes’ as the Turffontein Standside 1600m is a tough test, especially if the ground is rain affected.