Jockey great Basil Marcus would likely be the favourite for the accolade “Best jockey to have never won The July” and the horse he finished second on thirty years ago, the Paddy Lunn-trained Model Man, would be a strong contender for the title “The greatest July run to have not earned the winner’s sash.”

Marcus said, “To think the top three-year-old of that 1987 year, Bush Telegraph, who was unbeaten in eight previous starts, including the South African 2000 (Daily News 2000), only had to carry 49kg, compared to Model Man’s 57kg, shows just how great a run it was. Then in the race he was hampered at the start and ended up a long way off the pace. I had to build him up gently to make up the ground.”

In the straight, the great horse was soon eating up the ground with that enormous stride of his. However, Bush Telegraph had stolen too much ground when displaying a blistering turn of foot at the top of the straight and Model Man failed by 1,25 lengths to catch him.

“Two strides past the line he was in front,” recalled Marcus, and even after all of these years his voice tails off in disappointment.

Marcus revealed his fancies for this year’s race, first Edict Of Nantes, second Al Sahem and third Black Arthur.

He said, “Those two three-year-olds are progressive and Black Arthur has come back to his best.”

By David Thiselton

Vodacom Durban July tips from Independent Newspaper’s racing tipsters: Andrew Harrison, David Thiselton, Warren Lenferna and Brendan Pather.

These tips are courtesy of The Racegoer, which is published in 18 newspaper titles in South Africa, including the following publications: The Mercury; Daily News; Sunday Tribune; Independent On Saturday; Isolezwe; Post; The Star; Pretoria News; The Cape Times; Cape Argus; Weekend Argus; Diamond Field Advertiser; The Daily Voice and Eastern Cape Isolezwe.

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Vodacom Durban July day tomorrow has a guaranteed Pick 6 pool of R10 million and it is expected to reach over R11 million, so this is a bet many punters will not want to miss.

The first leg is the SABC Gold Vase over 3000m and is a potential stumbling block. However, the three most fancied are Hermoso Mundo, who won the Gold Bowl over 3200m full of running, Banner Hill, a long-striding sort who is also proven over this trip, and the gallant Serissa, who is as good as he’s ever been at age seven and has a perfect draw for his front-running style. Others to consider are Sun On Africa, who has always struck as a good stayer in the making and looks to have come into his own, Helderberg Blue, who is off the same merit rating as when second in the Gold Cup last year, and Captain Splendid, who seems to enjoy Greyville where he won the Lonsdale Stirrup in eye-catching style.

The second leg, the Gold Circle Golden Slipper, is the toughest of the Pick 6 legs and including the whole field has to be a consideration. However, the smaller budget selections in order of preference are Desert Rhythm, London Secret, Let It Flow, Neptune’s Rain, Gee Whizz, Bridal Veil and Lady In Black (if she gets in),.

Helderberg Blue (Nkosi Hlophe)

The third leg is the Durban Golden Horseshoe and Captain And Master looks top class and makes plenty of appeal from a plum draw. However, Trojan Harbour and Ancestry caught the eye in the Gatecrasher Stakes at Greyville. Highveld raider Hakeem and Varallo also have class and will enjoy the trip, so have winning chances too.

Leg four is the big one. Edict Of Nantes has the all right credentials to win July. He has good gatespeed and his good temperament means he can be switched on and off at will. He has an exceptional turn of foot and will stay the trip comfortably. His jockey Anton Marcus will be going for a record breaking fifth July, while his trainer Brett Crawford has already landed five Grade 1 victories this season. His draw of 12 means he will be away from the early scrum and Crawford is happy with it. He can be compared to the older horses on a line through Gold Standard, who made the frame in what looked to be an exceptionally strong Met field. Edict Of Nantes is right up with Gold Standard on his best form, yet is merit rated eight points lower so looks well weighted. He is a banker consideration. However, he beat his three-year-old contemporary Al Sahem by 0,5 lengths in the Daily News 2000 and the latter is now 0,5kg better off. Furthermore, Al Sahem is by the great sire Silvano, whoe progeny improve continuously and whom have won three Julys between them. Edict Of Nantes sire Count Dubois is yet to have a July winner. So, Al Sahem must be included in the Pick 6, despite his pole position draw meaning he is going to have his work cut out to avoid being shuffled back in the pack. It looks like a three-year-old race and the bold opinion is that this pair will be enough to get through this leg.

The fifth leg, a MR 104 Handicap,  is a tricky affair. Hashtag Strat has exceptional cruising speed and can stay all the way to the line over this minimum trip, so will have a big shout from a plum draw of two. Angel’s Power has a fine turn of foot and will be suited to the fast pace in this race over an ideal trip. Asstar runs well fresh and is two points higher than winning a Listed race over course and distance. Our Destiny is another who will be suited to the fast pace, while the classy Attenborough is interesting with first-time blinkers on. Doing It For Dan should be able to use his big action in a race with as much pace in it as this one, while pole position-drawn Horse Guards has a fine form chance and has come to hand since gelding.

The KZN Yearling Sale Million is the last leg and Al Mariachi will be all the rage having finished third in the Gr 1 Tsogo Sun Gold Medallion over 1200m last time and looking likely to `stay the 1300m trip. However, he has a wide draw and is not the certainty he is being made out to be. The Dazzler won his debut with long strides and did it easily and with Delpech up will be a big runner. Prince Of Kahal beat older horses well last time, Well Connected could still be anything. Cat’s Legacy and Crymeariver can also be considered.

By David Thiselton

Prepare yourself for a shock – yet another one.

If the recent history of the great race is anything to go by tomorrow’s Vodacom Durban July will be won by an outsider and the favourite will finish nowhere.

Anton Marcus (Nkosi Hlophe)

The average starting price of the winner in the last five years is 18-1 and during that time no favourite has even finished in the frame. But the statistics suggest it will be a straight fight between the three-year-olds and the four-year-olds – they have split the last ten runnings 50:50 with only dead-heater Pocket Power succeeding among the older horses.

Edict Of Nantes (11-2 with Betting World yesterday morning) lost his position at the head of the market during the week but, to this writer at least, he has looked the most likely winner since the Daily News when he beat Al Sahem half a length despite going wide at the turn. Don’t worry about his 13 draw. Anton Marcus is almost guaranteed to have him away smartly and slotted in a good position. The one negative is his rider’s assessment that he might be better over a more galloping course.

Al Sahem (9-2) is a significant half kilo better but his one draw is a potential nightmare that risks seeing him shuffled back and no July winner has started from such a low slot in at least the last 15 years. Also, as an SA Derby winner, he may not be suited by the muddling pace at which this race is so often run. That said, Sean Tarry is having the season of his life but so too is Brett Crawford.

The selection committee came in for criticism for including Black Arthur but the money has poured on Grant van Niekerk’s mount in the last few days. Seventh 12 months ago, his third in the Cup Trial is better than it looks on paper as he was hampered in the straight. But 5-1 looks much too short.

Marinaresco (Nkosi Hlophe)

Fellow Justin Snaith runner It’s My Turn makes more appeal at 17-2 despite his bad draw. Rider Piere Strydom is bidding for a record fifth July win as is Marcus and Anthony Depelch whose chance on 16-1 shot Nightingale looks more of a place one than a winning one.

Ten Gun Salute (17-2) could get into the shake-up but the record of top weights suggests that 60kg is too great a cross to bear for last year’s runner-up Marinaresco (16-1). However Safe Harbour at 25-1 surely has strong claims. She has gone close in a string of Grade 1s and was running on well at the end of the Woolavington. She looks the pick of the outsiders.

History suggests that last year’s winner The Conglomerate is unlikely to repeat the performance but Joey Ramsden is more than happy with him and the 17-2 shot has come in for significant support in the last three days. Dean Kannemeyer, bidding for a fourth July win, relies on Mr Winsome but 18-1 is not overstating the horse’s chance.

Just Sensual may beat Bela-Bela (favourite in last year’s July) in the Jonsson Workwear Garden Province and Al Mariachi looks another for Crawford in the KZN Yearling Sale Million.

By Micahel Clower

Handicaps are handicaps and as in the seemingly mindless pursuit of a white ball, some players perform above their rating, others only show their true rating when there are big prizes up for grabs. There is also the odd ‘off-day’ where no matter how hard you try, the rhythm is just not there so it’s best to enjoy the scenery rather than wrap an expensive stick around a tree in frustration.

Ten Gun Salute (Nkosi Hlophe)

In horseracing, unlike golf, you don’t have 18 holes – or four days – to hack yourself into the right mindset and charge on the final holes. Tomorrow’s Gr1 Vodacom Durban July will come together in two minutes where a year’s planning can unravel in a matter of strides and where skill and luck in running are needed in equal measures.

The handicapping of the three-year-olds has been a major talking point, many pundits believing that they are well in compared with their older counterparts. However, the handicappers are well paid to do their job and if they have got it wrong I don’t think it would be by too far so one must take their assessment at face value.

So where to next? All have their favourite jockeys, the three at the top of most people’s list are Anton Marcus, Piere Strydom and Anthony Delpech, all multiple winners of this race so their experience is invaluable. Delpech is tied to his Wilgerbosdrift/Mauritzfontein sponsorship so Nightingale was a given. That’s not to say that she’s without a chance but I’m thinking that given an option Delpech may have looked elsewhere.

Marcus had the choice between The Conglomerate and Edict Of Nantes. The Conglomerate is only 0.5kg worse off on last year’s winning weight but Marcus has been aboard at his last two starts and rather plumed for Edict Of Nantes and a starvation diet. That in its self tells a story, notwithstanding that the colt is the ruling ante-post favourite.

Justin Snaith was quick to snap up the services of Strydom for It’s My Turn and in his own words, “Piere Strydom is his biggest asset.” Handicapper Lennon Maharaj is of the opinion that if the handicappers have erred it would be with It’s My Turn. Speaking to colleague Michael Clower he said, “I personally have always felt he was a bit under-rated on his Cape Derby win. He has only gone up a point since last year’s July and he is a year older.” Add Strydom to the mix and you have a potent cocktail.

Edict Of Nantes #VDJ2017 Gallops

Conspiracy theories and if’s and but’s aside, form underpins every horse’s performance. Edict Of Nantes, Al Sahem and the filly Safe Harbour have by far the best form of the three-year-olds and consequently head up the ante-post market. But as D-Day approaches there has been steady money for the older horses in the form of Ten Gun Salute, It’s My Turn and Black Arthur. The latter two have been largely quiet over the season although their true ability is not in question. In early interviews Snaith looked to be leaning the way of Black Arthur but as he said, “There are lots of big races in the winter season but really this is the race we all want to win and you have to sneak into the race off the best weight that you can.”

On the other hand, Duncan Howells had his hand forced when Ten Gun Salute finished tailed off in the Drill Hall with a pulled back muscle and the Betting World 1900 was make or break. The race was the making of Ten Gun as he came from near last to win in convincing fashion. The 2200m trip holds no fears and in Muzi Yeni he has a rider who knows no fear. Yeni replaces stable rider Keagan de Melo as the connections felt that Yeni got on better with Ten Gun and victory would be sweet as the pair were well fancied last year.

One can carry on dissecting the form from all angles and still be none the wiser and probably more confused, but for me Ten Gun Salute’s 1900 win was the best July warm-up and before I change my mind again, he is taken to win from It’s My Turn, Black Arthur, Edict Of Nantes and the filly Safe Harbour.

By Andrew Harrison