An interesting study done by The Mirror racing correspondent in England a few years ago revealed a system, which involved an increase in distance for a young horse making its handicapping debut, to be the most consistently profitable. However, it would require a lot of patience and discipline to follow.

A letter sent by a reader was the prompt for the study.

The reader had the idea of backing every horse which was making its handicap debut having had exactly three runs.

The Mirror correspondent’s research revealed only 20.8 percent of such runners won, and it amounted to a loss of 9p for every £1 staked.

However, the system got him thinking and he posed the question: What would happen if such a horse i.e. one making its handicap debut after having had exactly three runs, made that handicap debut in a race where the distance of the race was different to that which it had campaigned over before?

He elaborated, “Just think about it. If you were a trainer or owner and the breeding of your pride and joy suggests it needs at least a mile to show its best, there is nothing in the rules of racing to say you can’t run it three times in sprints, get a handicap mark, and then run it in a handicap over what is likely to be a more suitable trip.”

He continued, “Even on a powerful computer the stats for this take some time to calculate but it was worth doing.

The rules he set were:

On the Flat, look for a horse making its handicap debut in a race that is more than a furlong and a half further than it had raced over on any occasion before.

The result was a return of £1.11 for every £1 staked – or a profit of 11 per cent.

He concluded, “Interestingly, the profit was pretty consistent each year for the last ten years.”

Unfortunately, applying it to South African racing would be impossible due to local trainers’ obstinacy in running maidens in handicaps.

Like the UK, a non-winning maiden in South Africa is allowed to run in a handicap after three runs, but unlike the UK a maiden running in a handicap in South Africa is a rare occurrence.

It makes sense to run such horses in handicaps as they will be up against horses with similar merit ratings, while in maidens the same race can include anything from future champions to battlers.

There is no certainty in racing and no replacement for form study, finding value and being disciplined in only betting on value.

However, with small money, following systems can provide a lot of fun.

Some of the popular systems regularly applied were listed by racing man Glenn O’Brien:

1) 1400m specialists: The logic is this trip produces racing’s most potent specialists, being neither a sprint nor a mile. These specialists usually have the upper hand over failed sprinters stepping up in trip or failed milers dropping in trip. To apply it take races from 1350m to 1450m and back the shortest priced horse who has recorded two or more wins over the distance.

2) Against the short prices: Logic: When there is a short-priced favourite, the true value often lies with the main danger.

3) Backing the best horse: This system identifies the highest rated horse at any meeting and backs it. Logic, true class can pull a horse through under any circumstance.

4) Beaten favourites after a rest: A beaten favourite might not have run its true race and to make amends the connections wait for an ideal opportunity to make amends. To apply this system the next race must come over the right distance at least 30 days after the defeat.

5) Beaten favourites with sights lowered: A beaten favourite next appearing over the right distance in a lower class or lesser quality race.

Glenn O’Brien lists over 50 systems on his website: www.glennobrien.net/horse-racing-systems.html

By David Thiselton

Retained riders, lucky enough to earn a contract, are a travelling band, clocking up the air miles as they flit from centre to centre without making a dent in their own wallets. The retainer does come with its share of pressure but it paid dividends for Greg Cheyne, retained by the combination of the Kieswetters of Highlands Stud and Ridgemont Racing, as Emma’s Oracle waltzed home to shed her maiden in facile fashion in the sixth at Greyville yesterday.

There were a few who in the race that fancied their chances, notably supporters of The Matador for Yadav Singh, saddling his first runner since taking out his trainer’s brief again, but Duncan Howells will have been well aware of what he was up against given that the runner-up had recently left his yard. In retrospect, Emma’s Oracle obliged at fairly generous odds of 9-10.

Age is never a factor when a horse stays sound and enjoys his racing and Crime Victim rewarded owner/breeder Barry Readon with his fourth win from 40 starts, giving Howells his second winner of the afternoon, when accelerating away from his field to win the Racing. It’s a Rush Handicap over 2400m. Crime Victim had been dropping steadily in the handicap but his poly debut last time out saw him run well below what he is capable off.

The handicappers generously dropped him a further four pounds after that race but are likely to put a cork in the gap after yesterday’s fluent victory.

Flichity By Farr franked the form of recent KZN Fillies Guineas Trial winner Hashtagyolo, when speeding to a comfortable victory in the Track & Ball Fixed Odds Handicap.

Under a polished ride from Anthony Delpech, he had Alyson’s Wright’s filly tracking the early pace before pushing the button two furlongs out and accelerating away to win as she liked with favourite Shirley Valentine chasing shadows.

Paul Lafferty got his meeting under way in good style as apprentice Diego de Gouveia took advantage of a strong tail win to lead all the way on outsider Exquisite Eight and Francesco sealed a fine afternoon in the office for Lafferty as red-hot apprentice Ashton Arries rode a confident race to steer his mount to a comfortable victory.

Outsider Air Salute saw the Pick 6 dividend rocket in the last as the Lezeanne Forbes-trained gelding belied his current form. He hooked up with strong favourite Sovereign Master at the top of the straight but keep rolling resolutely to win rather comfortably at the death.

By Andrew Harrison

Start preparing your blue and white outfits as the dates for next year’s the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate Racing Festival, when horseracing and high society converge at Kenilworth Racecourse, have been set for Friday 5 and Saturday 6 January.

The L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate meeting is South Africa’s oldest race day, dating back to 1861. Last year it became the country’s first multi-day racing festival in the mould of famous international racing festivals such as Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood and the Kentucky Derby.

Friday will be an elegant and relaxed afternoon Garden Party, with the racing highlight being the Gr 2 Cartier Sceptre Stakes – the premier sprint race for fillies in the Western Cape.

Beyond the track, the day will also see live jazz, a Summer Harvest Table under the trees, along with bottomless complimentary L’Ormarins Brut Cap Classique and Heineken on tap. Garden Party tickets will be R500, and will additionally grant guests access to the following Saturday’s Style Lounge and all-too-famous after party later that evening.

As is tradition, the running of the Gr 1 L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate will take place on Saturday, when South Africa’s finest thoroughbreds compete for the R1.5 million purse.

Tickets for Saturday will range from the Style Lounge, priced at R350 to the Kenilworth Jazz Room at R1,500 per person, with spots such as the popular Stud Club at R1,300 and picnic style Paddock Sites at R10,000 per table.

The exclusive Garden Party, with free flowing L’Ormarins Brut, Heineken, harvest table lunch and jazz, is the perfect way to warm you up for the second day’s racing on Saturday. Limited to 500 people. At R500 your ticket will include:

• L’Ormarins Brut.
• Heineken Draft.
• Harvest Table for a light, summery lunch from 1pm to 3pm.
• A free Style Lounge ticket for racing on Saturday 6 January.
• Live jazz.
• Access to purchase from local bars & racing.

Find out more about the various hospitality options at www.lqp.co.za/tickets-hospitality/. Tickets will go on sale at Computicket on 16 November 2017.

Miss Frankel will be the centre of attention at Kenilworth tomorrow when South Africa’s only offspring of the legendary racehorse attempts to give weight all round in the Play Soccer 6 Handicap.

It’s her handicap debut, normally a red warning light for punters, but the way she won at Scottsville in August suggests that this horse is more than capable of overcoming normal difficulties.

Starting odds-on, she was in front after 100m and she stretched right away in the final furlong to win by four and a half lengths without Anton Marcus even showing her the whip. True, it was a pretty ordinary maiden but it was the way she did it that was so impressive.

Her big stride, while not as long or as devouring as that of her famous sire, gave some key as to her undoubted ability while she has clearly inherited at least some of the speed of her dam, the triple Grade 1 winner Val De Ra.

A relieved and delighted Dennis Drier, who confessed to being “shell-shocked” when she flopped on her only previous start, said: “This was the Miss Frankel I know at home. Nothing went right for her first time but I think it was just stage fright.”

However training her is seemingly not straightforward and Drier told me a few days ago: “She has issues – she is not the soundest.”

MJ Byleveld – sponsored by her breeders Avontuur – is in the hot seat this time and his mount seems sure to start a warm favourite even though the TAB sheet race card originally had Honey Suite at the head of the market. The question is can she get beat?

Lack of race fitness is an obvious drawback but her trainer, asked if she would need it, replied: “Hopefully not.”

The next imponderable is whether the handicappers have put her on too high a mark. They rated her 86 for winning a maiden whose strength looks some way below that of a Kenilworth maiden. But, frankly, the way she did it suggested that this is a Graded filly in the making, one whose rating is going to climb.

Honey Suite, good enough to win first time by even further than Miss Frankel at Scottsville, looked the one real danger but she was scratched on Monday morning after going lame on her off-fore.

Of the others Public Prosecutor is a lot better than last time’s Durbanville run would suggest – her saddle slipped and she was found to be coughing after the race – while Royal Chian, on paper miles under sufferance, led her rivals a merry dance here 11 days ago.

By Michael Clower

KZN Breeders will be celebrating the result of yesterday’s Melbourne Cup as the winner Rekindling is a full-brother to the Summerhill Stud-based sire, Golden Sword.

Twenty-four-year-old Irishman Joseph O’Brien was the winning trainer in his first attempt at the “race which stops a nation” and he and his record-breaking father Aidan clinched the exacta in a finish dominated by overseas trainers.

Rekindling, ridden by 41-year-old Australian jockey Corey Brown, wore down Johannes Vermeer to win by half-a-length. The 2015 runner-up, the Dermot Weld-trained Max Dynamite, made it a one-two-three for Irish raiders.

Rekindling, whose previous race was a strong-finishing two-length fourth in the Gr 1 St. Leger at Doncaster, always looked likely to relish the two-mile trip and was proven on left handed tracks like Flemington.

He was said in some quarters to be the first three-year-old to have won since Skipton in 1941, but in Australia he is listed as a four-year-old as he was Northern Hemisphere born.

He carried a featherweight 8 stone 2 (51,5kg) and returned odds of 14/1.

From a plum draw of four, Brown managed to get the High Chapparral colt on the rail as the barrier three drawn Johannes Vermeer went forward. From then onward Rekindling travelled beautifully and the race could not have panned out better for him. Max Dynamite, who finished runner up two years ago, surged through a gap on the rail approaching the final bend and then switched outward. This allowed Rekindling a perfect tow into the straight and he had Johannes Vermeer, who had  kicked for home, in his sights. The long-striding Max Dynamite’s momentum was effected as he got stuck behind the joint 6/1 favourite Marmelo and Tiberian turning for home. However, when he finally got a split he joined in the battle up front. The Galileo colt Johannes Vermeer, a 12/1 chance, was staying on resolutely, but Rekindling always looked likely to catch him and finally overtook him full of running in the shadow of the post. The first Australian-based horse home was the fourth-placed Irish-bred Big Duke, trained by Darren Weir. In fifth place was the Iain Jardine trained raider from Scotland, Nakeeta, a 40/1 shot ridden by ex-patriot South African Glyn Schofield. The sixth finisher was also a raider form Ireland, the Willie Mullins-trained Thomas Hobson.

The result emphasised the contradiction that despite the Melbourne Cup being Australia’s biggest race their breeders prefer to target races like the $3,5 million Golden Slipper over six furlongs, which is the richest race for two-year-olds in the world and is probably Australia’s biggest sire-producing event.

It was 41-year-old Corey Brown’s second Melbourne Cup winner. He rode the Mark Kavanagh-trained Shocking to victory in 2009. The humble Brown was “lost for words” after the win and was greeted by his wife Kylie and three daughters in the winner’s enclosure.

The race was called for the first time by 36-year-old Matt Hill, who became Australia’s youngest ever commercial racing caller as a nineteen-year-old.

A TAB customer was selected at random to pick a Melbourne Cup winner for $1 million and instead of picking one of the favourites, Almandin or Marmelo, the punter made the genius decision to pick $15 chance Rekindling, the sixth favourite.

“I started the day working so I never could have imagined this,” said punter Dominic, who was still in a state of disbelief.

An entertaining video of the lucky punter watching the race can be viewed on the Gold Circle facebook page.

The British-bred eleven-year-old Golden Sword joined Summerhill in 2012.

He won the Gr 3 Chester Vase over a mile and four-and-half-furlongs for Aidan O’Brien and then finished fifth in the Epsom Derby and second in the Irish Derby.

In his first season with Mike de Kock in Dubai he finished third in the Gr 2 Dubai City Of Gold over 2410m and in his second season won a handicap and a Conditions race, both over 2000m on the All Weather track. He thus qualified for the Group 1 Dubai World Cup, where he finished a well beaten eleventh.

Golden Sword, not surprisingly, has produced staying types and included among them is the Listed Oaks Trial winner Belle Rose, who also finished fourth in the Grade 1 SA Classic over 1800m.

By David Thiselton