Surcharge to add value
PUBLISHED: December 1, 2017
The Robbie Sage-trained Surcharge is the top pick to win The Listed Secretariat Stakes over 1400m tomorrow at Turffontein racecourse, December 02…
Cape Town takes centre-stage tomorrow but the afternoon-evening meeting at Turffontein will enable punters to have extended entertainment and The Listed Secretariat Stakes over 1400m provides some classy racing for the purists.
The Robbie Sage-trained Surcharge is the selection to win The Secretariat. He was forced to drop out from a high draw in the Emperor’s Palace Ready To Run Cup over this course and distance last time out. He had to come from last and then had traffic problems, so did well to charge home for fifth. This time he has to give the others weight, as it is a handicap, but he has a good draw this time and plenty of class so looks up to it. Dhabyaan is an expensively-purchased Australian-bred by Medaglia D’Oro and he was stretching clear from a handy position on debut over 1200m, so will relish this step up in trip. He is widely drawn but is receiving 7,5kg from Surcharge, so with likely improvement he could be a threat. Prince Of Kahal is a well-regarded sort, who finished a one length third in the Grade 3 Graham Beck Stakes over 1400m and his time was about half-a-second better than Surcharge’s time on the same day, which puts him in with a fine chance as he is receiving 1,5kg from the latter.
However, he has a tough draw to overcome. Harlan County is officially 1kg under sufferance but caught the eye in his maiden win over 1600m and looks capable of rising above a 78 merit rating, so he could earn from draw two. Polar Ice ran well last time over 1600m to be just a length behind the well regarded Alshibaa, from whom he was receiving only 2kg and this improving sort could earn. Keanan’s Rock found some betting support in the Grade 1 Tsogo Sun Gold Medallion in just his second start, so must be well thought of, and he has come down eight points since his handicap debut so could surprise over a likely ideal trip. Full Of Attitude was an easy maiden winner over this trip, but was accorded and 86 merit rating and has a tough draw.
The meeting starts at 15h00 and Silvano filly Tia could get punters off to a good start, as she made a good debut over 1000m and as a full-sister to the Grade 2-winner and multiple Grade 1-placed Tellina, so she will enjoy the slight step up to 1160m.
The best bet comes in race three over 1160m. Lobo’s Legend is a tall athletic sort with plenty of scope and after going close last time to Buffalo Bill Cody he can take care of this field. Fearless Fred is a similar type and made a good comeback over 1000m, where he was a touch unlucky when finishing 4,7 lengths behind the promising Star Of Joburg. He had some fair two-year-old form and could be a threat.
In race seven over 1600m Redberry Wood is by Fort Wood out of a full-sister to dual Guineas winner Solo Traveller and she was finishing strongly on debut over 1400m, so should relish the step up in trip. She is a big horse but looks a relaxed type, so should be capable of performing well from a high draw. Paul Peter’s horses can never be ignored and his front-running sort Angelic has landed a good draw at last and she and Let’s Twist, who had some decent two-year-old form and jumps from pole position in her return from a layoff, look to be the main dangers.
In the last race a horse who caught the eye as a classy sort in the making, Illegal, makes her comeback in a fillies and mares handicap over 1160m and off an 81 merit rating she could pay to follow.
By David Thiselton
No doubting Snowdance
PUBLISHED: December 1, 2017
There are high hopes for Snowdance in tomorrow’s WSB Fillies Guineas and after her performance in the Western Cape Fillies Championship she looks hard to oppose…
Snowdance is well-nigh impossible to oppose in tomorrow’s World Sports Betting Fillies Guineas after the way she demolished half this field in the Western Cape Fillies Championship.
True, she has an extra furlong to travel and Justin Snaith has voiced the possibility of stamina doubts over this distance and the more testing summer course. But she did make all the running last time and apparently she doesn’t have to do it that way. “She will be just as good coming from anywhere,” Bernard Fayd’Herbe said last week.
There were a lot of hard luck stories behind – as Glen Kotzen pointed out in this paper yesterday – and you could certainly see some of those who suffered bad luck or interference finishing closer. But reversing the placings? Almost certainly not.
Recent history also points to Snowdance. Only once in the last seven years has the Western Cape Fillies winner been beaten in the Fillies Guineas. Two didn’t run but the other four all completed the double. In addition tomorrow’s race is a good one for favourites who have won five of the last seven runnings.
The handicappers have the four immediately below her in the racecard rated within two lengths, indicating that the outcome could be a lot closer than impression might suggest. Lady In Black (12-1) is a Grade 1 winner but 4-1 second favourite Magical Wonderland was beaten fair and square and 33-1 shot Rockin Russian has a diabolical draw.
If there is to be a shock Via Seattle at 12-1 just might provide it. Although a Port Elizabeth horse, she went to Johannesburg to stun the locals by winning the Starling Stakes at 66-1. She had Silver Thursday (12-1) a length and three-quarters behind and Mike de Kock thinks so much of that one that he has put her in the Met.
If you think Snowdance is vulnerable and too short at 13-10 but you can’t decide which one of the others to back, the sponsors will give you 6-10 the field. Snaith is evens to train the winner, Candice Bass-Robinson 7-2 with 12-1 and upwards all the others. However, and surprisingly, the winning margin is odds-on to be less than a length
WSB make Legal Eagle 12-10 favourite to become the first dual winner of the WSB Green Point Stakes since Pocket Power. The Sean Tarry star has never been beaten over a mile so it makes sense to stick with him, particularly as he ran so well on his reappearance.
It could well be a different story in the Sun Met over a distance at which he is vulnerable, especially given the way Edict Of Nantes won that star-studded 1 400m Pinnacle three weeks ago. Piere Strydom’s mount is 28-10 second favourite but at this stage the advantage surely still lies with the Eagle.
Gold Standard (9-1) will probably need one more run to reach his peak but 2015 winner Captain America should go close at 6-1.
The WSB Cape Merchants has not been won by a three-year-old in the past 16 years but Dutch Philip has been heavily backed and his price has tumbled from 8-1 to 9-2 favourite in the last three days. He seems sure to run well but the history of the race suggests that it is not that simple.
Search Party 12 months ago was the first winning favourite since 2001 and he was only joint favourite. In truth, the Merchants is a desperately difficult race in which to find the winner.
Cuban Emerald is suggested each way at 25-1. He won pulling up on his last start in August and Justin Snaith promptly put him away for this so that the gelding would not risk his handicap mark. It was a bold approach, one reminiscent of the great trainers of a bygone era. If he pulls it off, they will be doffing their hats from their graves.
By Michael Clower
Keep in rhythm with Arabian Beat
PUBLISHED: December 1, 2017
Paul Peter makes an appearance at Greyville tonight and with five runners, is unlikely to leave empty handed and the most likely winner could be Arabian Beat…
There are likely to be plenty of losing tickets in the Win-if-you-Lose boxes at Greyville tonight where punters face a tricky card. That said, the rewards will be great if you back a winner or find the right combinations in the exotics. Failing that, you get a second chance if your losing ticket wins you one of the R30 000 worth of prizes on offer on Prize Nite.
Turffontein-based Paul Peter is in town for the evening with five runners and given his current form he is unlikely to return home empty handed. However, his five runners all face strong local opposition so it will not just be a case of smash-and-grab.
Of all his runners, Arabian Beat looks the most likely to land the spoils especially after the scratching of the crack three-year-old Trojan Harbour (not eating up). Older runners with some mileage on the clock often take to the poly surface and the five-year-old makes his poly debut in the Sachin Bharat Handicap. He also brings some consistent Highveld form into the race and although he steps up in class he has the benefit of a handy weight and a pole position draw.
Keagan de Melo is a regular pilot for Peter and has partnered Arabian Beat in his last two starts on the Highveld. He also rode Trojan Harbour at the colt’s seasonal debut so if you believe in conspiracy theories!
Prince Ponti and Midnight Messenger look the most likely to fight out the Jazmin Hawkesworth Qualified Maiden. Prince Ponti has been disappointing but was not far back when making his seasonal debut racing in pacifiers. Charles Laird’s runner will appreciate the step up in trip and also jumps from an inside gate. The draw could prove to be the Achilles heel for Midnight Messenger who will be dodging cars on Marriot Road but he gets the benefit of Anthony Delpech and with Anton Marcus aboard Prince Ponti we could be in for an intriguing tactical battle.
Winning first up out of the maidens is never easy but recent maiden winners Regent Seven and Slightly Scottish get the opportunity in the Docter Ngoyo Handicap although they will be up against it. Both made steady improvement leading up to their wins but Regent Seven strikes as the more progressive and landed an inspired gamble when shedding his maiden.
But the list of possible winners is a long one with the Peters-trained Seventh Of June in the line-up along with Plymouth Rock, Spanish Captain and Waltzed Home all in with good chances.
It could be Delpech against Marcus again in the Rebecca Saneka Handicap as Gadget Man comes up against Air Chief Marshall. Gadget Man made a cracking local debut when slamming course and distance specialist Fire The Rocket. This was the first run on the poly for Dean Kannemeyer’s charge and bodes well as he steps up to what looks to be a more preferable trip this evening even though he takes a rise in class.
However, Air Chief Marshall has been improving steadily and looks cherry-ripe for this encounter. His last two outings were over course and distance and a drop in class is also in his favour.
Of the balance, Graduate was well supported on debut and won with the minimum of fuss. He could be anything but that form does appear to be a little suspect. Kings Empire, Late Autumn and Scrabble are others that warrant attention.
By Andrew Harrison
Snowdance, ‘Wonderland’ go head to head
PUBLISHED: November 30, 2017
The Grade 1 WSB Cape Fillies Guineas favourite Snowdance and Magical Wonderland go head to head this Saturday at Kenilworth racecourse…
In last year’s Grade 1 WSB Cape Fillies Guineas a relatively unexposed horse, Just Sensual, came from handicap form against older horses and beat the horses who had Graded form against their own age, so Saturday’s race is far more open than the betting suggests.
The favourite Snowdance overcame a wide draw to lead from start to finish in the Grade 2 Western Cape Fillies Championship (WCFC) over 1400m. She loped along in front before displaying a fine kick and it was race over. She was allowed an easy lead and Magical Wonderland was stuck in midfield before running on well. The latter will not be caught napping again on Saturday and there is little in it.
Both have good draws but both fillies have stamina concerns on pedigree, although Magical Wonderland’s racing style suggests she will stay the trip.
Mayfair Speculators retained jockey Anton Marcus is not aboard Magical Wonderland, but instead rides stablemate Rings and Things, who is amazingly the biggest outsider in the betting despite running on in eyecatching fashion last time out in a 1400m handicap. She is now having her third run after a layoff from a good draw of eight.
Silver Thursday caught the eye staying on strongly in the Grade 3 Starling Stakes over 1400m last time out at Turffontein. Subsequent form points to the runner up Folk Dance having needed the run. However, Silver Thursday will relish this trip on pedigree. She jumps from last year’s winning draw of 12.
PE raider Via Seattle won the Starling Stakes, but unlike Silver Thursday has a slight stamina doubt on pedigree.
Lady In Black won a Grade 1 over this trip as a two-year-old. The form of that race is muddled, but it should be taken into account that the race did not pan out for her. In the WCFC she was caught hopelessly wide but should come on a lot from the race and now has a good draw of five.
Love Supreme is by Silvano out of dual Grade 1-winning miler Thunder Dance and this big, strong, long-striding sort must have a big shout from draw nine as she was still green when winning comfortably over this trip last time off an 82 merit rating.
Lanark is in a similar mould and won well from the front in a handicap last time.
Midnight Moonlight also won well in a handicap over 1700m coming into this race.
Long-striding Oh Susanna had no luck in the WCFC but stayed on in eyecatching style.
Elusive Heart beat Snowdance two runs ago and if settling better than she did in the WCFC has a shout.
Rose In Bloom stayed on from a handy position in the WTFC but has a tough draw now.
Fresnaye needs further and Princess Peach might not stay. Too Phat Too Fly looks held and Rockin Russian has to reverse form with Lady In Black from the widest draw of all.
Love Supreme and Oh Susanna are hard to separate and are taken for the boxed exacta ahead of Lady In Black, Silver Thursday and Snowdance.
By David Thiselton
Kotzen sets the standard
PUBLISHED: November 30, 2017
Despite having just one run since his fourth place finish in the Sun Met, trainer Glen Kotzen is expecting a good run from Gold Standard…
Glen Kotzen is expecting a good run from Gold Standard in Saturday’s WSB Green Point even though last year’s Cape Guineas runner-up has only had one run since finishing fourth in the Sun Met.
Kotzen said: “We galloped him at the course last Wednesday, we are really pleased with him and he is ready. I think he will give them all a run for their money.”
Interestingly the Woodhill trainer, who won the 2011 Fillies Guineas with Princess Victoria, believes the Snowdance form just might be a little suspect, reasoning: “There were so many hard luck stories that I’m just wondering about it even though Snowdance is obviously a very talented filly.”
He runs 25-1 chance Too Phat To Fly – who was fourth to Snowdance in last month’s Grade 2 test – as well as 40-1 shots Princess Peach and Elusive Heart who is the only horse ever to have beaten Saturday’s favourite.
He said: “Too Phat To Fly worked like a steam train on Tuesday and I’m expecting her to run a super race. We think a lot of Elusive Heart who was caught wide in the Western Cape Fillies. I’m not quite sure whether Princess Peach will get the mile but, if she does, she will be competitive.”
Joey Ramsden, in the winner’s box with Just Sensual 12 months ago, is under no illusions about the chances of a follow-up – “Snowdance looks pretty special and Rose In Bloom (16-1) has a lot do from draw 15. She is certainly Grade 2 material but it’s a tough ask.
“Fresnaye (50-1), though, has a lovely draw and the new course will suit her. She wants a bit further but she could surprise and run into a place.”
Ramsden expects both 10-1 shot Attenborough and Brutal Force (14-1) to run well in the Cape Merchants, saying: “Brutal Force always needs one run and he has had that while Attenborough ran a great race last time. On his day he is the real deal.”
By Michael Clower








