The Vodacom Durban July is as open as ever this year and punters who can get through the Pick 6 with a narrow selection will be doing well and catching the quartet will be lucrative.

The Pick 6 pool is estimated to be R13 million plus while the estimated quartet pool is R16 million.

The Johannesburg three-year-olds have proven themselves to be top class.

Therefore the Grade 1 Daily News 2000 might be the most reliable form leading into the July.

Majestic Mambo has an exceptional turn of foot and has proved he can come from last. He overtook some of the other July three-year-olds in the Daily News despite the pace not having been fast.

Do It Again finished half-a-length behind Majestic Mambo in the Daily News and they face each other on the same terms. However, this Twice Over gelding looked a touch flat that day whereas he looked very bright at the July Gallops. He is drawn wide but will at least avoid the usual scrimmaging on the inside and four-time July-winning rider Anton Marcus is aboard.

White River was a touch unlucky in the Daily News as he checked off the heels of another horse when the pace slowed down. He stayed on well from a handy position to be just two lengths behind Majestic Mambo. This difficult customer has shown improvement with gelding in work and now has his second run since that operation. He looked good at the gallops and jumps from draw 12.

Three-year-old Yakeen over raced in the early stages of the Jubilee but still stayed on to win. However, that antic does not augur well for his chances over 400m further, unless he settles better from a nice draw of six. The form of the Jubilee took a dent when third-placed Arctica was beaten in a Pinnacle event over 1600m last Sunday despite being well weighted. Yakeen is also officially 2,5kg under sufferance so has a tough task.

Three-year-old Rocket Countdown is officially 3kg under sufferance but beat White River and Do It Again in the Selangor over 1600m and is coming off a narrow loss to a highly regarded sort in Rainbow Bridge over 1800m in the Winter Classic. This good looking sort should be staying on well and is an upset possibility.

The favourite African Night Sky ran to about a 122 rating in the Sun Met, so running off a 112 rating here is theoretically 5kg well in. He scythed through the field effortlessly last time over 1800m in the Cup Trial and although that was a much weaker field it completed a fine preparation.

Matador Man will be suited to a slow pace as one who has a slight stamina doubt. He will likely be at the back as he usually starts slowly. He loves Greyville and if he stays he will be finishing strongly as he has a fine turn of foot.

Dark Moon Rising is crying out for this trip and did well to finish second in the WSB 1900 behind a slow pace. He is officially 1,5kg under sufferance but is improving as Ideal Worlds tend to do, and will be staying on strongly, so has a shout from a low draw with a light weight.

Coral Fever often flies under the radar but always pops up and has earned topweight. He is one of the class horses and will be running on, although one concern is whether he can turn it on quickly enough on this tight track.

Made To Conquer is an ever improving sort who has a laid back temperament, will stay the trip and showed in the Lonsdale Stirrup Cup he has a good turn of foot. That last race was over 2400m and he was running off just a 94 merit rating so this is a lot tougher, but he has the fine rider of Greyville Jeff Lloyd aboard and this classy sort has a definite shout.

Elusive Silva has won three from five starts at Greyville, has an electric turn of foot and has proved he stays the trip. However, he has had soundness issues. His rider Bernard Fayd’Herbe has won two Julys, although he has a tough task slimming down to make the 56,5kg weight.

Tilbury Fort has improved with gelding and ran on well in the Jubilee. Lyle Hewitson will help him overcome a wide draw, but he will have to show further improvement.

The Silvano filly Star Express will love this trip on pedigree. She has never really fulfilled her potential and comes in off a fine preparation so is one of the dark horses.

Liege has a chance if reproducing his Summer Cup run as he showed a good kick that day from a handy position but he has not had the ideal preparation.

Secret Potion is a long-striding sort who can run on over a trip she will enjoy but she has a tough task at the weights and might prefer a more galloping track.

The big question is where the pace will come from, which is why three horses have been left for last in this analysis.

Gold Standard’s probable best performance was when sitting in second place behind Captain America in last year’s Sun Met so he will likely want to be handy and could end up a reluctant leader. If another horse gives him a lead and he bounces back to his best, he has a chance.

Fiorella is another possible pacemaker. She looks to be a galloping type so being handy or leading will likely be her best chance. The bare form of the Woolavington gives her a big shout, but the winner Oh Susanna was likely below her best that day.

Piere Strydom won the July in 2012 by going handy from a wide draw on Pomodoro and in 2016 did similar when winning aboard The Conglomerate. His mount this year Abashiri lacks early pace but considering the race’s lack of pace Strydom might take the bull by horns and chase him up along the rail from pole position. Wherever the big Go Deputy gelding is in the running he will likely stay on as he has proven he stays this trip with ease.

It is wide open July and should be a thriller.

By David Thiselton

Grant van Niekerk is on the horse in Saturday’s Vodacom Durban July that every other jockey would give his eye teeth to ride and the one that the vast majority of punters think is going to win. The pressure must be well-night intolerable. How does he cope?

“I tell myself to try and be confident,” he said when the question was put to him in the Kenilworth weighing room yesterday. “The more confidence you can bring into a race the better the result. It’s always like that.”

So how do you get that confidence? He doesn’t hesitate. “I just try to ignore what everyone else is saying and in particular to ignore any negativity. There are a lot of negative comments going around about me riding African Night Sky at the moment including that nonsense on Winning Ways. I concentrate on cutting out all that. And in the race I don’t worry about the next person, I just ride my own race. Me and my horse are what matters.”

There is no set way to ride the Durban July in Van Niekerk’s experience – and he has twice finished second in five rides in the race. “You have to ride it as the race pans out and according to the pace. On Smanjemanje in 2012 I was three wide and only just got beat. When I was second on Marinaresco two years ago I was drawn 19 and came from almost last.

“African Night Sky is a straightforward ride but he has to be given a chance. He likes to be ridden confidently as well so you need luck in running.  I am going to switch him off but I am also going to try and sit closer because I know there is not going to be much pace on.”

Bernard Fayd’Herbe, successful on dead-heater Pocket Power ten years ago and on Marinaresco last year, has ridden in every one of the last 13 runnings.

He said: “It’s usually quite a rough race and I think the most important thing is to make sure that your horse is comfortable throughout and that he finishes well.”

Jockeys in the July often report that they went fast early on and then the pace slowed. This time many believe that there will be no mad gallop early but Fayd’Herbe’s view is slightly different. “There are several horses that, ín order to give themselves every chance, are going to have to be up there and that will automatically increase the pace. In any case it’s a big race so they won’t be hanging around too much.”

His mount Elusive Silva is drawn 14. “It’s not ideal but he is a straightforward ride, you can put him anywhere and I don’t think stamina is a problem.”

No prizes for guessing which one he would like to be on if he wasn’t riding Elusive Silva. He won last year’s Winter Series on African Night Sky and said: “He is the one to beat but after that I think it’s wide open.”

Champion elect Lyle Hewitson, still only 20, will be riding in the great race for the third time –“The July is always exciting. We don’t often race in front of a crowd that big and this makes it such a special day. You can feel the tension building when you canter down and it gets a lot more serious as you are led into the pens.”

He has ridden Tilbury Fort to victory in two of his last three starts but is drawn widest of all: “He is a four-year-old with a nice low weight. Despite the draw that puts him into it and I think he will be doing good work late.

“Obviously I will be giving him a chance and I just hope that the right gaps open thereafter. The main thing is to get him covered up and relaxed. Once he settles he does it for you.”

By Michael Clower

Glen Kotzen expects a good run from his Vodacom Durban July candidate Gold Standard and is confident of the chances of July reserve runner Pack Leader in the consolation race, the Grade 3 Betting World 2200.

He has a number of other runners on the day and has a fair hand.

Kotzen said Gold Standard had done his July gallop in “hard bar shoes”, so hoped for a “gin strike” with the lighter alumites on. He said he had come out of the gallop well. The Trippi four-year-old colt caught the eye running on over 1600m in the Grade 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge and jumps from draw six under Craig Zackey over a step up in trip he will appreciate.

Kotzen said Pack Leader had pulled up well after his excellent workout at the July Gallops and had been doing exceptionally well. He jumps from draw eight under Zackey in the 2200.

Kotzen said his two Grade 1 Jonsson Workwear Garden Province Stakes contenders, Elusive Heart and Final Judgement, were both very well and were “cherry ripe.” They both have tough draws but both have proven ability in this class.

Stable jockey Richard Fourie has chosen Believe The Best in the Grade 2 Samsung Golden Slipper over 1400m but Kotzen admitted he had a “soft spot” for Temple Grafin and believed Fourie had chosen the wrong one. Believe The Best caught the eye last time when beating older horses in a maiden after being caught wide over this trip at Scottsville. Temple Grafin, whom Kotzen rates as “very good”, followed up on a good barrier trial by winning over 1200m on debut on the poly. Grant van Niekerk will have to overcome a draw of 15 on her, while Believe The Best has a tricky draw of ten. Temple Grafin will come in two positions if the reserves come out and Believe The Best will come in one spot.

In the Grade 2 Durban Golden Horseshoe over 1400m Kotzen said Crown Guardian had put in excellent work at Summerveld since arriving from Cape Town but admitted he had a tough task from the widest draw of all.

Kotzen believes his best runner of the day is Purest Bliss in the KZN Yearling Sale Million, He felt being green had cost her in the Allan Robertson and he made her a “huge runner” in this race despite having to jump from draw ten over the 1300m trip.

He runs Princess Peach in the Zulu Kingdom Explorer MR 88 Handicap over 1400m and gave her a chance if bouncing back to her best. She has been off form for some time but has come down in the merit ratings and jumps from pole position over a step up in trip.

Kotzen warned the public that his Cape Derby winner Eyes Wide Open would not be at his best in the 12th race over 1600m. He said his class might pull him through but there was no pressure on them for this race and it was being used as a preparation outing for the Grade 1 Champions Cup. He said his other runner in this race, Luna Child, had been doing very well and she is distance suited and drawn well.

Kotzen expected his two runners in the first race, Essenceoflife and Anneline, to be competitive, although he added the former would need luck from a high draw in this polytrack 1200m fillies and mares handicap event.

By David Thiselton

Brett Crawford, still waiting to avenge Angus’s head defeat by Ipi Tombe in his first season as a trainer, is hoping that 16 years on the well-backed White River could be the one to do it.

Crawford has been quoted as saying that the Cape Guineas runner-up has as good a chance as Edict Of Nantes who was beaten little more than a neck when third 12 months ago. Yet White River was only fifth in the Daily News and sixth in the Cape Derby, both of which were won by his former stable companion.

“White River is a talented horse who hasn’t really shown it yet due to circumstances of which being a colt was the biggest,” says the Philippi trainer. “Now that he has been gelded he is a much more manageable horse and he focuses on his work much better.”

But will he stay? After all he is by Trippi, hardly an influence for stamina. “That could be a question mark but I don’t see a lot of speed in the race and I don’t think it’s going to be a testing 2 200m,” says his trainer. “In the 2 000m Daily News he was only beaten a length and three-quarters and we have him much fitter now. Indeed he has done very well since that race and, with only 53kg on his back, I make him a big runner.”

White River will be only the second July ride in the past 12 years for Corne Orffer who rode in the race several times earlier in his career and who has really developed his talents since becoming Crawford’s stable jockey. His big race triumphs this season include the Tsogo Sun Sprint.

Orffer confirms that gelding White River has transformed the horse: “When he was a colt you had to get him out quickly and then really get him going but now you can do what you want with him and he will do it for you. You can ride him handy or put him away, switch him off and switch him on again whenever you want him.”

And draw 13, is that a problem?  “I would have been happy with seven or eight but you don’t want to be drawn on the inside – say one to four – because if you get a slow start you can find yourself boxed in.

“In fact I’m not too phased by 13 and, with it looking as if there is not a lot of pace in the race, it seems as if I may be able to get handy straightaway. He has good gate speed so I don’t see a problem in getting there without having to force the horse. He can then be switched off and relaxed until I’m ready to ask him a question.”

By Michael Clower

The Grade 3 Gold Vase over 3000m constitutes the first leg of the Pick 6 on Vodacom Durban July day, which has an estimated pool of R13 million plus, and is a tricky race to analyse.

The race is run under merit rated band conditions and fillies are given a 2,5kg allowance.

The best weighted horse according to official merit ratings is the joint topweight It’s My Turn, who is coming off a fluent win in the Grade 3 Track And Ball Derby over 2400m at Scottsville. The SA Oaks runner up Flichity By Farr is 0,5kg under sufferance with him, Let It Rain is 1kg under sufferance, Mr Winsome is 2kg under sufferance,  Sun On Africa and One Man Show are 2,5kg under sufferance, Cool Chardonnay is 3kg under sufferance, Hero Quest is 4kg under sufferance, Storm Warning is 4,5kg under sufferance, Silver Rose and Sheet Weaver are both 5kg under sufferance, One Direction and Forafewdollarsmore are both 5,5kg under sufferance and Eastern Pearl is hopelessly out at the weights being 16,5kg under sufferance.

However, races are not run on paper and in these staying races the handicapping is often misleading as some of the horses are still proving themselves over the trip and others have not even tried the trip before.

Johannesburg raider Let It Rain proved in the Gold Bowl over this trip that he was at his best when allowed to stride out in front. He opened up a huge lead in that race and held on. In his only subsequent start hold up tactics were reverted to and did not work so he is likely to be sent to the front in this race. The number one draw is ideal for his front-running style and assistant trainer Andrew Fortune reported him to be in good shape. He is likely to make a bold bid under Aldo Domeyer, who rides him for the third time in succession.

Flichity By Farr ran on strongly in the SA Oaks when held up and last time stayed on bravely for third in the Grade 3 Track And Ball Oaks when caught wide. Her time in the latter race was quicker than It’s My Turn’s time on the same day and she now has champion jockey elect Lyle Hewitson up.
Four-year-old Silvano gelding One Direction is a full-brother to SA Derby winner Seal, who won this race at this same age. One Direction won over 2400m in September last year at Kenilworth but then disappointed in the Settler’s Trophy at Durbanville over 2400m. He has been kept to middle distances since but in his last two starts, when staying on well over 1950m and 1900m respectively, he has appeared to be looking for this sort of trip.

Five-year-old It’s My Turn is the class horse in the race, being a winner of the Grade 1 Cape Derby as a three-year-old and having been close up in the July for the last two years. He likes to stride along so will enjoy a good pace. He was not stopping at the line in the Track And Ball Derby where he sat on the flank of the leader throughout the running. However, that was not a strong field and he was even better weighted in that race than he is here.

Sun On Africa ran just three lengths back in this race last year and this field is weaker. He is effectively off the same merit rating but unfortunately his 100 rating falls right at the bottom of one of the bands. However, he should still make his presence felt.

Mr Winsome ran a good second in the Track and Ball Derby and on paper has a chance as he is 4kg better off with It’s My Turn for a 2,25 length beating. However, he was hard pressed whilst It’s My Turn won easily. He is not the soundest type either.

Forafewdollarsmore was staying on when beaten 4,85 lengths by easy winner It’s My Turn in the Track and Ball Derby and he is now 7kg better off, so he should get closer.

Cool Chardonnay finished 5,9 lengths back in the Gold Cup last year from pole position and is now effectively 14 points lower in the merit ratings. Unfortunately his merit rating falls near the bottom of one of the bands, but he has shown himself to be in good form in his last two starts. Weiho Marwing is an outstanding trainer of stayers so this horse has to come into the reckoning.

Storm Warning faces Let It Rain on 0,5kg better terms than when beaten 2,95 lengths in the Gold Bowl and he won his last start over this trip on Turffontein Inside. This eight-year-old was a classy stayer on his day and is in good form off his current merit rating, so could earn.

Silver Rose beat an unlucky One Direction over 1900m here last time by 0,25 lengths and is 1kg worse off. He is a half-brother to Jet Master filly Razzle Dazzle Rose, who won the Grade 2 Gold Bracelet over 2000m at Greyville, but he still has to prove he stays this trip.

Sheet Weaver stays but has a tough task at the weights.

Hero Quest and One Man Show look to be up against it in this class and Eastern Pearl has a hopeless task at the weights.

By David Thiselton