Turffontein Standside stages a low key meeting tomorrow although there are some useful horses taking part.

The Pick 6 banker looks to be Deerupt in the sixth race, a Maiden for three-year-old fillies over 1450m. This Australian-bred filly by Snitzel ran on well from the back in the Devon Air Stakes over 1400m at Greyville last time and was just 2,75 lengths behind the well regarded Firdoas and two lengths behind Mazari, who went on to finish second in the Grade 2 Golden Slipper. Huddle could get close to Deerupt on a line through On The Double, but she disappointed last time and Deerupt looks to be more progressive. The one the risk averse could include is Choir Singer, as she looks to have scope and the Lucky Houdalakis yard bring them on slowly but surely.

Lucky Houdalakis

In the first leg of the Pick 6 over 1160m the well-bred first-timer In The Dance is the selection. This Gimmethegreenlight filly would not have to be as good as her half-brother Capetown Noir to beat this field. Rock A Roll Dancer looks to be the best of those to have run as the form of her second to Nafaayes over 1000m was franked when the latter won next time out. Miss Pinkerton will improve on her fair debut and now has the valuable 2,5kg claim of Luke Ferraris to help her cause. Rock Sensation has the form to be in with a shout and Chouette and Greener Pastures make most appeal of the other first-timers.

The first leg of the Jackpot is the highest class race of the day, a Pinnacle Stakes event over 1160m. The last time Africa Rising returned from a layoff he mowed down a good field over 1200m at the Vaal carrying 61kg and he now carries 60kg minus the 2,5kg claim of Ferraris. Mardi Gras returns from a layoff and gelding but this talented sort will also be finishing strongly and is a horse to follow this season. Arabian Beat must be included as he will be fit from his run on July 1 and can hardly be separated from Mardi Gras on their last meeting. Those three are selected to get punters through the exotics although the risk averse should consider including the whole field.

Race seven should be fought out by Chipofftheoldblok, Vartanium and Make Your Move. The joker in the pack is Maroon Bells and Indy Ice makes most appeal of the first-timers.

In race eight over 1600m Satin Slipper wasn’t given a hard time on debut over this course and distance and should come on a lot from the run so is a banker consideration with Ferraris up. Abelie is the form danger and Irish Wonder Girl is the one who can surprise as she will relish this step up in trip. Awayinthewoods, Oona and A Little Luck warrant consideration too.

The last race over 1600 should be fought out by Roll Of Drums, Fort Carol and Stars and Bars, who will all be improving.

By David Thiselton

Anton Marcus will be the focus of much punter attention at Kenilworth tomorrow when he jets in for only one ride, newcomer Water Spirit in the TAB Telebet Maiden.

The four-time champion has been on the crest of a wave since his return from a broken wrist and, in addition to that inspired ride in the July, he has won on half his 12 mounts this season. Indeed he had a 22% strike rate at Kenilworth last term when punters found his trademark Cape Town ride – fast away and going to the front much further out than the local jockeys  – particularly rewarding.

Anton Marcus

True, the Markus Jooste days are no more but Ridgemont (his latest retainer) also have some cracking good horses and the bookmakers had no hesitation in opening Water Spirit as a favourite. This Jackson filly is out of a half-sister to SA Classic winner Divine Jury and was sold by Highlands under the name of Mermaid’s Delight at the Cape Premier Yearling Sale in January last year shortly after Wayne Kieswetter had purchased the stud. She was knocked down to Brett Crawford for a cool R2 million.

She is obviously smart and expected to run a big race – Marcus would hardly be coming down to ride her if this was just a quiet introductory run – and Crawford commented yesterday: “I won’t say I expect her to win but I think she can be competitive. She is doing very well at home and has put up some good work. She is looking for more ground but she won’t need the run from a fitness point of view – it’s more how she breaks and whether she is green.”

But this is a strong maiden and she may not beat Vomandla.  The Andre Nel filly finished fast on debut and failed by only a short head to catch Durty Nelly with Juniper Spring (fifth in the Fillies Nursery) franking the form in third. She promptly went into the Winning Ways notebook with James Goodman predicting: “She should absolutely doddle it next time.”

Greg Cheyne’s mount is 3-1 second favourite with World Sports Betting which has the Snaith runner Fortune Flies on 7-2, Joey Ramsden’s six-month absent Au Revoir at 5-1 and the Vaughan Marshall contender Fluttering on 11-2.

Winning Ways also tipped Bunker Hunt as one to follow and Richard Fourie’s mount is 6-10 for the Tabonline Maiden. He should win but he is no certainty as he was ridden right to the line on debut and may not improve as much as most horses having their second run.

All The Sevens, good enough to run in the Langerman, can make his experience tell in the first while Tevez may recoup last time’s losses in the Pinnacle.

* Michael Clower is on a roll. His selections at the last six Cape Town meetings are showing a profit of R232.60 to a R10 level stake and seven of his last ten tips have won.

By Michael Clower

Backing newly turned three-year-olds against older horses, especially in fixed weight races, at this time of the year can be dangerous. Unless the younger horse is way better than the opposition, it’s likely to get beaten and leave many a puzzled punter who has taken the form at face value.

It is by no means a hard and fast rule but definitely one to consider when working out your bets.

A possible example could come in the first at Scottsville on Sunday where some promising three-year-olds take on a few older horses with some useful recent form.

The WFA scale, the bible of handicappers, says that three-year-olds in August should be in receipt of 7kg from their older rivals in races over 1000m to 1200m. In South Africa three-year-olds only get 2kg relief in Maiden Plates and therein lies the rub.

Brighteyebushytail (Candiese Marnewick)

Horses like Buckleberry and Cavalry have yet to be assigned a merit rating as they have not yet had three races so one needs to work out whether they are 5kg better than their older rivals. Buckleberry has been narrowly beaten in his two starts and with Anton Marcus aboard, Paul Lafferty’s colt is likely to start close to the top of bookmaker’s boards. Cavalry has shown up well in two barrier trials and was not disgraced against winners when making his debut in a small feature.

According to many trainers, our handicappers tend to over-rate maiden winners, dishing out unrealistically high merit ratings, and victory for either of the two mentioned could see them rated in the 80’s.

Pantsula and Leslies Pathtofame have both been knocking on the door and Pantsula especially is a distance specialist with consistent form. Gavin van Zyl is a dab hand in Scottsville sprints and Pantsula could prove more than a match for his younger rivals given these weights.

We have a similar scenario in the second and here it’s a case of whether you rely on the handicapper’s assessment and back Riptide or go with the older runners headed by the best performed Fleek. Louis Goosen’s runner is lightly raced with some patchy form but has turned in some useful performances including a close-up second over 1000m on the poly last time out. Her pedigree suggests that she should prefer Sunday’s trip. She should also be helped in her quest with hot apprentice Luke Ferraris giving her 2.5kg relief from the saddle.

The year younger Riptide, who was a beaten favourite over a mile last time out, is rated 1.5kg better than Fleek and has Marcus in the irons. I’m A Var and Under The Rose must have claims and Star In The Sky, a close-up third on debut, could spoil the argument as she has an exceptional pedigree and should be at home over this trip.

Marcus has picked a lot of low hanging fruit for Sunday and could well go into the opening leg of the Pick 6 with two winners to his credit. He has another plum ride in Prince Charming for Greg and Karen Anthony in the opening leg of the Pick 6. Prince Charming has come on from every run and could have the measure of the younger White Lightning who has pulled a bum draw.

The highly rated Brighteyebushytail has had more problems than the Guptas but can get back to form in the fourth. He was not asked for much when returning from a seven-month break and although this 1600m may still be on the sharp side he could have too much class if finding his best form.

By Andrew Harrison

Adam Marcus has decided to keep stable star Brave Move in light work over the next quiet couple of months rather than send her off to a farm for a complete rest.

He said: “I am in a catch-22 situation. I have got to give her a break but she is so well she could run. I just wish I could fast-forward time.

“She has pulled up so well since her last win and I think she is still on the up. Indeed every time Aldo Domeyer rides her he says that she has got better.”

The five-year-old has won all her last six starts, including the Ladies Mile and the Final Fling Stakes, going up in the ratings from 74 to 107. Her objectives include the Paddock and the Majorca Stakes.

By Michael Clower

The Turffontein Inside track stages a typically competitive August nine race meeting although the purists can look forward to a couple of good horses turning out, including Lord Silverio, who looks to be on the way to the top.

This four-year-old grey has a lovely big action and being a Silvano colt will be improving all the time. Sean Tarry will be wanting to qualify him for the big summer features so will be keen to get his merit rating, which is currently a relatively lowly 86, up to a good mark. This looks to be another step up the ladder for this quality R1,1 million colt.

In the first leg of the Pick 6 Stormbourne Thunder went close in his penultimate start over this course and distance and is drawn in pole. The top 2,5kg claimer Luke Ferraris looks to have some good rides on the day and this is one of them. However, this horse did disappoint last time so the pair Lana Turner and Lalia can be included in exotics as they have scope for improvement.

Lord Silverio (JC Photographics)

In the next leg Barbie Doll is rated as the value bet of the day as she has run well in her last two starts over 1700m and 1600m respectively and she will relish the step up to 2000m. The only concern is her wide draw. She did overcome a wide draw in her last win, over 1800m on the Vaal Inside, but that track has a straight which is a lot longer than this one. Pretty Ballerina went close over this trip at the Vaal last time and now has the advantage of the 2,5kg claim of Ferraris so should go close from a good draw of five. Spring Poetry has been dropped to a competitive mark and could also be in the mix. Noceur has always struck as a nice type and is difficult to ignore despite a tough draw and having a hard task with Pretty Ballerina at the weights. The latter beat her by 1,4 lengths last time and if apprentice claims are included is 2kg better off. Animal Lover will relish the step back to this trip and is another once who has to be considered from a plum draw of two.

In the sixth race over 1600m Shogun is ideally distance suited and not only has pole position but also has Ferraris with his valuable claim up. He is the one to beat. Puget Sound has some eyecatching form over this trip including close up finishes to the like of Yakeen and Royal Crusade. He does have to overcome a three point raise for his win last win over 2000m but could be up to it. D’Arrivee is a big scopey sort and perhaps didn’t stay 1800m last time when moving up and finishing no extra. However, he was beaten by a highly promising horse in Lord Silverio and could also enjoy the step down in trip, so should be given another chance.

In the seventh over 1450m Tammany Hall gets a chance to show how good she is. She looked to be promising early in her career and has not quite lived up to expectations but now being a four-year-old by Await The Dawn she should start coming into her own. She is drawn in pole with Ferraris up so can take full advantage over this ideal trip. Saragon is also a classy sort and the only thing against her is a wide draw of eight and it will also be difficult to beat Tammany Hall due to Ferraris’s claim. However, this Ideal World filly has shown a lot of promise and will also be coming into her own. Strawberry Pavlova is difficult to ignore due to her good comeback run over this course and distance, where she won going away, and she has only been given a two point raise.

The next race is difficult but young Ferraris is aboard a four-year-old Silvano filly Amanika who will be improving so can build on her last two good runs. However, she has a tough draw of eight. Pearl Of Bahrain has shown promise in the past and can do better than recently as the merit rating has come down, the blinkers are off and he is drawn in pole. Gimme Hope Johanna is a progressive sort who has to be included. Waity Katie also can’t be ignored as she has ability and give of her best. Kirconnel Lass can be included in wider permutations.

In the last leg the front runner Beautiful Shay has everything in her favour. She is in fair form, has come down to an attractive merit rating and is course and distance suited. However, it is a competitive fillies and mares handicap and as many as possible must be included.

By David Thiselton