Shadowing, something of a punter’s nightmare so far, can finally get it right in today’s Tabonline Maiden in his first race at Durbanville.

The Vaughan Marshall gelding has finished second or third in the last six of his seven outings and he has started either favourite or second favourite in the last five. Just think of the money you would have saved if you hadn’t backed him.

Yet he has a fair bit of ability, certainly enough to win this race, and Durbanville may bring out the best in him. He won’t be faced with a long, staring straight but instead will go almost immediately into a turn with only a short run-in when the race begins in earnest.

Flash Fire (Nkosi Hlophe)

Furthermore Marthinus Johannes Byleveld is no mean jockey – he numbers three Cape Guineas on his Grade 1 list – and you can rest assured that he will be going into action with a carefully prepared plan aimed at getting this enigmatic customer home in front.

The price, though, is uncomfortably short. World Sports Betting yesterday tightened the three-year-old from 9-10 to 8-10 and a horse with his record should never be odds-on.

Tintagel’s form is not as good but the 22-10 chance is the obvious danger. “He is a fair horse and I think he should probably win,” is the considered view of Mike Stewart who adds: “Don’t rule out Beethoven. He was drawn 11 out of 13 on his first run and the appie couldn’t get in.”

Another to consider is 15-2 chance Head Of The Pack who led the field a merry dance in Trip To The Sky’s race at Kenilworth ten days ago before weakening a furlong out. Significantly this race is over a furlong less.

Richard Fourie opted for the well drawn and superbly bred R1.3 million newcomer Peter Paul Rubens in the first in preference to the four other Snaith runners. The Duke Of Marmalade colt is a half-brother to Kasimir and Golden Horseshoe winner Afrikaburn. He was 11-10 favourite and might just have been good enough to collect at the first time of asking.

But Justin Snaith was worried about sore shins and scratched him yesterday afternoon. Few of those that have raced make much appeal but The Suit, although disappointing in his last two runs, gets a tentative vote at a good price.

Bellingham Bay sprang a 50-1 shock on debut here early last month and, despite the usual first time out of the maidens caution, he may go in again in the Betting World Handicap while Angel’s Trumpet appeals in race five.

By Michael Clower

There has apparently been a proposal to remove the weight for age (wfa) factor from the merit rated handicapping system in South Africa and thus accord horses nett merit ratings only.

This is an interesting idea and would make it easier for younger horses.

One of the biggest gripes of the merit rating system is that it robs young horses who are good but not top class of two or three wins which they would have earned under the old race figure system.

For argument’s sake, a two-year-old colt called Charger enters a maiden over 1400m in late July and only receives 4kg from older horses. However, the weight for age differential at that stage between him and a three-year-old is 8,5kg and between him and an older horse is 9,5kg. Charger is a talented horses and beats the field by one-and-a-half lengths. The line horse is deemed to be the runner up, a 69 merit rated three-year-old. The 1,5 lengths plus an extra 4,5kg have to be taken into account so Charger is accorded a merit rating of 81, which is a nett merit rating of 62.

Supposing hIs next race was six weeks later in race number five run at Greyville yesterday, a MR 64 Handicap over 1400m. The weight for age differential between him and a four-year-old at this time of the year over that trip is 7,5kg and is 8kg between him and a five-year-old. Charger would therefore have had to give 2kg to What A Scorcher, who is a three-time winner, he would have had to give 3kg to Roys Rolls Royce, a four-time winner, 3,5kg to Brave And Bold, a five-time winner, 5.5kg to Royal Katrina, a three-time winner, and 8,5kg to Gold Chalice, who like himself is a one-time winner. His trainer is of the old school and immediately perceives his young horse to have been hard done by because under the old race figure system, where weight was basically accorded on the number of wins, Charger would have been receiving weight from all of those multiple winners.

However, the counter argument for those in favour of the merit rated system is that all of those older multiple winners mentioned above would not still be racing as they would have done their dash after winning one or two races. This would be a discouragement to the smaller owner, who can only afford a quality of horse whose dream scenario, according to the law of probability, would be to be able to compete in low grade handicaps until a ripe old age.

However, introducing the new proposal of ignoring wfa would at least make it easier for the young three-year-old. In the above example, Charger would have come into yesterday’s race with his accorded nett merit rating of 62 as opposed to his gross merit rating of 81 minus the wfa allowance, which would have put him on a nett merit rating of 65. Thus, he would have been 1,5kg better off under the new proposed system compared to the current system.

However, there will be plenty of implications if the new proposal is introduced.

Supposing Charger did run in yesterday’s race and for argument’s sake finished in a dead-heat for second with a five-year-old, to whom he was giving 3,5kg. Both horses do not run again until December and then face each other again over the same distance. The young colt should have improved in this time by 2,5kg according to the wfa scale. He would therefore have to give the five-year-old 6kg under the current system. However, under the new proposed system he would still give the horse only 3,5kg, as they will simply be running off the nett merit ratings that they had last been accorded. The young colt in an ideal world should thus beat the five-year-old by two-and-a-half lengths.

Karel Miedema, owner of the Sporting Post racing newspaper and a doyen of handicapping, pointed out that the above scenario would be in contravention of the NHA racing rule 47.3.2, which states: “a handicap, which shall be a RACE in which the weights to be carried by the HORSES are allocated by the handicapper for the purpose of equalising their chances of winning.”

Others would argue that the majority of horses do not improve according to the wfa scale, meaning the above scenario would be acceptable. However, there are no statistics to back this up and, furthermore, most would argue that a specified three-year-old who is good but not top class would find it harder to win a handicap merit rated 85 in August than it would merit rated 85 in February.

The weight for age scale has also stood the test of time, although from time to time it undergoes adjustments in places like Europe. Ironically, the most recent adjustments made by the BHA (British Horseracing Authority) in 2017 were designed to remove a clear advantage which the data showed the existing Scale was conferring on three-year-old horses over middle and longer distances in the second half of the season. A sample of over 89,000 runners in handicaps and 5,000 runners in wfa races over a six-year-period was used in the research.

Whichever handicapping system is used there will be one party which is happy and others who are not. The current merit rating system prolongs the careers of moderate horses but can be punishing to horses who find themselves in the gap between average and top class.

Dedicated punters enjoy the merit rated system as it allows them to do their own handicapping and find horses who have been underrated. Some other punters would prefer the race figure system, in which many races had one or two horses who were clearly superior at the weights and it thus cut the amount of form study required.

It will be interesting to see whether the new proposal is ever implemented and if so it is sure to stimulate plenty of debate.

By David Thiselton

Durbanville course specialist Fifty Cents and Bernie, first and second in Saturday’s Supabets Pinnacle, will renew rivalry over 150m further in the Matchem on October 7. But Justin Snaith intends strengthening his hand in the Grade 3 test.

He said: “Fifty Cents is now four from four here but I have quite a few for the Matchem including Kasimir who was second in the CTS 1200. It will be very interesting to see which one Richard Fourie chooses.”

The champion trainer is in blistering form, particularly with all those three-year-olds kept waiting in the wings last season, and victories for Green Jacket and Carlas Mambo took his tally to 24 and his strike rate to 18.5%.

Fifty Cents (Liesl King)

He regards these early victories as important for his bid to retain the championship, reasoning: “The Cape season is going to be tough and the competition will be hot. Picking up these races now is going to count.”

Fourie won on all three and his percentage is virtually 32%. It is Muzi Yeni who is leading the national log but 21-winner Fourie, on a week-by-week basis at least, is running not far short of his ambitious 200-winner target.

Candice Bass-Robinson, who won last year’s Matchem with Our Mate Art, was pleased with the performance of all three of her Pinnacle runners, saying: “Horizon (sixth) needed this badly but he will join Bernie in the Matchem and then his programme will be something like Green Point, Queen’s Plate and Met if he stays in one piece.

“We will see how we go with Tevez (who ran on well into fourth). It was his first time at Durbanville and he never likes going round the turn which is why he doesn’t go to Durban. But he is always keen which is why I keep running him.”

Vaughan Marshall, in double form, explained that Rocket Girl didn’t handle the “sloppy” ground when disappointing at Kenilworth last time – it was the day only two races were run. Secretariat’s Girl was retired to stud after winning the Interbet.co.za Handicap and leaves for Klawervlei this morning.

No such rest for West Of Seattle who made all under Donovan Dillon at 22-1 in the first to surprise his trainer almost as much as the punters.

Paul Reeves said: “Gelding him has made a big difference but I thought he would only run a place. They were backing the favourite (third-placed Spring Burst) like there was no tomorrow.”

Ante-post favourite Trippi’s Express was odds-on prior to being scratched on Friday afternoon after showing an abnormal blood count.

Andre Nel was full of praise for Anthony Andrews’ handling of Sister Soozie in the Middle Stakes (“he rode a perfect race”) and the good-value Liam Tarentaal, 20, took his total to 23 when getting up on the line on the Eric Sands-trained 15-1 shot Cyber Law in the Betting World Handicap.

*  Kenilworth Racing’s invitation to The Barn market to set up shop multiplied the normal crowd many times over. “It wasn’t as busy as our Sunday market in Durbanville town but it was worth coming,” said one stall holder while Justin Snaith was one of many suitably impressed, saying: “It’s an easy simple idea and I am happy to see it bringing people racing.”

But there were long queues at the downstairs bar and, if these new casual racegoers are not to be put off, the caterers need to open up more outlets.

By Michael Clower

Bernard Fayd’Herbe will take over from Greg Cheyne when the highly-rated debut winner Pleasedtomeetyou steps up in class for the Fairview Wine Sophomore Sprint at Durbanville on Saturday.

The form of the colt’s August 11 win has been repeatedly franked, most recently with eight-length fourth Green Jacket scoring at Durbanville on Saturday.

Bernard Fayd’Herbe

Justin Snaith, who entered four, has declared smart dual winner Clouded Hill and Greg Ennion will run both Elusive Trader (Corne Orffer) and Sailor Sam (Donovan Dillon). Vaughan Marshall has two entries, Canukeepitsecret and Top Of The Class but is reluctant for them to take each other on (“They are two very decent horses”) unless today’s declaration is so small that the race becomes in jeopardy.

Last year’s Met winner Whisky Baron could be rested for a few weeks despite earlier concerns about his ability to handle the softer autumn ground.

Ross Kieswetter, who owns the gelding in partnership with elder brother Craig, said: “He came out of  the Goodwood race well but William Haggas says that he doesn’t want to bring him back too quick so he will give him a break for a bit.”

Whisky Baron’s second in the Celebration Mile after being off for over five months was far better than expected. “We couldn’t believe how well he ran,” said Kieswetter, “and I don’t think William could either.”

Grant van Niekerk’s good start to his Hong Kong stint continued at Sha Tin yesterday when he won the last on 131-10 shot High Five for Tony Millard.

By Michael Clower

For a kid out of the backwoods of the Eastern Cape and plucked out of a school in Cape Town, apprentice Khanya Sakayi has made the most of his opportunity at the South African Jockey Academy. He has hit a purple patch, the likes of which is the envy of all in the weighing room, including his seniors.

He scored his first three-timer at Scottsville a month back and since then has been getting them home regularly but going one better at Greyville yesterday as took his tally of wins to 28 with a winning four-timer.

Sakayi started by surviving an objection call on Sea Urchin in the Pinnacle Stakes. The protest was lodged by Mark Khan, rider of Royal Armour, who claimed interference in the latter stages.

Khanya Sakayi (Candiese Marnewick)

The protest didn’t faze seasoned rider and trainer Garth Puller who hardly blinked when put the question. “We came from behind that horse. I don’t think there was anything in it. It will be over-ruled in my opinion.”

He proved correct as Sea Urchin notched the fifth success of his career. “He’s seven-year-old but he’s brave and does his best. He fought his way through.”

The Yogas Govender-trained Lickerio was next up for Sakayi in the first of the three-race apprentice challenge races where Luke Ferraris looked to pinch a lead on Sentido. But Sakayi had plenty of horse under him and they went to the line unchallenged.

As he showed on Sea Urchin, not only is Sakayi tactically sound, but also a difficult man to master in a finish as he fought off all rivals on the favourite Itdawnedonme for owner, trainer Duncan Howells.

As if to confirm that opinion, Sakayi rounded off a superb afternoon as he out-duelled fellow apprentice Ferraris in a desperate finish to the last race on the diminutive filly Just Rap, fittingly for Puller and winning all three of the apprentice races.

Earlier, favourite for the third, Bulleting Home, was a tardy starter, unusual for a horse ridden by Anton Marcus, and from there on was never in the race.

Marcus was aboard favourite Sorceress in the previous event but his mount was under pressure early and never featured. In contrast, Sweet Mary Lou gave apprentice Ferraris a dream ride as she quickened up smartly in the straight to win as she liked. “I was a case of switching her off so that she would see out the mile, but she quickened very well,” said Ferraris.

Dennis Drier has more depth in his stable then probably all of his colleagues at Summerveld combined and he turned out another smart winner in the card opener as Holy Land put his opposition to the sword.

“I thought Dennis had lost it a bit,” quipped Nick Jonsson, tongue-in-cheek. “He kept on telling me that we have a nice horse here but he was not showing it on the racecourse.”

Gelding appears to have done the trick and Holy Land put it in all the way to the line yesterday.

“This horse was bought on sentiment,” said Jonsson. “He’s the great grandson of a smart filly that my father owned, Old Rituals. I saw the pedigree at the sales and just had to have him.”

Sometimes sentiment works in you favour. Mostly it doesn’t, but Holy Land appears to be one of the exceptions.

A smart tactical ride on Stelvio gave Drier the double as Sean Veale pinched the race at the top of the straight. Favourite O’Keeffe, bidding for a hat-trick, got going late but Stelvio stuck to her guns to narrowly hold the challenge.

Drier took the wraps off a smart filly at Scottsville on Wednesday with Golden Chance putting seven lengths over her rivals and Star In The Sky was equally impressive in the seventh. After two forward showings over shorter, the daughter of Silvano out of a Galileo mare, Star In The Sky was bred to go every metre of the 1900m maiden and she did it in style, leading the procession by six lengths from the luckless Little Audrey who in turn was three lengths clear of her nearest rival.

By Andrew Harrison