Punters face a few tricky decisions at the Vaal tomorrow. There are a number of races that are impossible to predict with any confidence and there are a couple that look to be obvious bankers. The quandary is whether you take a chance and bank the like of Aeronautical in the seventh and Pachanga in the eight and load up in the other legs of the exotics, or do you load all legs with as much as finances allow.

The lightly raced Aeronautical out of the Mike and Adam Azzie yard has only had three starts and finished runner-up in his last two. He stays the trip well and if merit ratings are anything to go by, he should prove difficult to beat.

Mike Azzie

However, there are a pair of three-year-olds that caught the eye on debut and both are stepping up to a trip which, on pedigree anyway, looks more suitable. Blame Game comes from the powerful Sean Tarry yard and was staying on nicely on debut over 1400m while Popsicle Toes was only run out of it late when making his debut over 1800m. Both should improve so it may be prudent to include both to provide back-up to Aeronautical.

Pachanga has not been out of the money since joining Ashleigh Fortune’s yard but it is a little worrying that she never seems to make it past the eventual winner, finishing runner-up in her last five outings. She was touched off a piece of paper last time out and maybe this time Gavin Lerena can get her home as she tries 2000m for the first time.

These two will be popular exotic bet bankers for the smaller investor as they will be hard-pressed to get through the balance of the card unscathed.

The opening leg of the PA is an Assessment Plate for fillies and mares where Railtrip is likely to be a popular choice. However, Chesney van Zyl’s filly has shown her best form over further and is returning from a break which could open the door for the likes of the lightly raced Captain’s Princess who contested strong feature races last season. She is smart and at best should feature prominently along with Vivir, who should be more at home over this trip.

In the opening leg of the Pick 6 Bien Venue sprinted up well in his seasonal debut and has shown plenty of ability. The extra should also suit. Of the balance, Orpheus showed up well first time back after gelding. He is lightly raced but has potential. Deerupt takes on some useful males but cannot be written off even though she took a little time to shed her maiden. She has not been out of the money in five outings.

The fifth is a tough handicap made even more difficult it being a race exclusively for apprentice riders. Endofmarch started a short-priced favourite for his new stable but finished down-field but he had some useful Cape form before that and may be worth another chance. Pachuco came from a long way back to finish third last time out. He has a light weight and an experienced apprentice aboard. Gonnafly has been taking on stronger at recent outings. He takes another merit rating drop and with a 4kg claimer up can be dangerous while Trip To Paradise came from well back to finish in the money last run and a repeat should see him competitive again.

The sixth is wide open. Come The Day continues to improve and was a game winner last time out. He is bred for this trip and can follow up. Odd Rob is an obvious danger having been in the money in his last four. He was closing fast on Come The Day last time out but didn’t quite get there so there should not be much between these two again. American Indian tried to make all in that same race but faded late. Given a more patient ride he could do better. Psychic ran well below ability last start at Turffontein but his best showings have been on this course so can make amends

By Andrew Harrison

Charles begins his journey to what could lead to the Cape Guineas in the Settlers Trophy Handicap at Durbanville today. But for now the all-important question is whether he will win this.

The R6 million purchase gets into the 1 400m race with bottom weight and yesterday afternoon he was sharing 28-10 favouritism with Jailhouse Rock in the books of Betting World. He was good enough to win at the first time of asking – no mean achievement – and he was then a more than respectable third to One World in the Langerman.

Mac De Lago

“It is not easy to find races for him but we have a programme mapped out and this is the first leg,” says Brett Crawford. “He is taking on experienced horses and it will be a nice test for him. He has only had the one grass gallop since the Langerman but he is very well and I am happy with him.”

Francois Herhodlt takes over because stable jockey Corne Orffer has to really struggle to do 52kg and Crawford does not want the colt to have to carry even half a kilo overweight.

He is rated 92, the same as Hemmingway but nine points inferior to Mac De Lago, and gets the weight-for age allowances from his rivals – and at this stage he has more potential than any of them.

But Jailhouse Rock is preferred. Justin Snaith said in a Tellytrack interview on Saturday that anyone who made money that day should play up their winnings at today’s meeting. Seemingly he expects to have a good day. He did not specifically mention this horse but the colt was unable to get a clear run when beaten a short head by Hemmingway last time and is half a kilo better. Admittedly that was three months ago but at 28-10 Richard Fourie’s mount makes considerable appeal.

Hemmingway is next in the market at 3-1 and Andre Nel expects him to run a big race – “He had two weeks in a paddock (after his last run) and has had two gallops since. One of those was here and he went well. This is his trip.”

There is no such confidence behind 8-1 top weight Mac De Lago. “His prep has gone haywire,” admits Dan Katz. “I was hoping to get two races into him before the Algoa Cup but both were cancelled so I am using this as his prep run.”

A much bigger danger is Zeb who is on a hat-trick after two wins over this trip and Greg Cheyne’s mount has been backed from 5-1 to 7-2 with World Sports Betting.

Front And Centre carries a first-time-out-of-the-maidens warning in the 1400m handicap (race seven) but she won so well on debut that she should go in again. She has already been backed and, if you can get better than 15-10, you will be doing well.

Stable companion Engage And Beware appeals at 33-10 in the first while 22-10 favourite Minona looks another for the Snaith-Fourie combination in race two.

By Michael Clower

Rainbow Bridge will face ten opponents when the Eric Sands-trained colt (Bernard Fayd’Herbe) puts his unbeaten record on the line in the World Sports Betting Matchem Stakes at Durbanville on Saturday. There has not been a bigger field for this Grade 3 test since Joshua’s Dream beat 12 home in 2007.

Some of the big names entered for the Progress Plates – including Langerman winner One World – will also get an outing, but only after a hectic day at the National Racing Bureau.

Candice Bass-Robinson hamishnivenphotography

Only four horses accepted for the male Progress Plate and just five for the female one with two-thirds of the nine runners coming from the Candice Bass-Robinson stable. Justin Snaith (2) and Vaughan Marshall (One World) were the only other trainers represented.

Snaith switched Miss Katalin to the WSB Diana Stakes and the two Plates were briefly combined only for trainers to report that they couldn’t get jockeys light enough as the fillies were to receive 2.5kg. Both Plates were then scrapped and the NRB introduced a MR 68 handicap to make an eight-race card. That too was scrapped and a revised Progress Plate (including One World and Kasimir) was put in its place.

The popular Barn market will be back on Saturday when the intention is to turn the meeting into a family day with attractions for children as well as braai facilities and the celebrated Jockeys’ Chase.

Justin Snaith, already leading the log by nearly R500 000, has been installed 11-20 favourite to retain his trainers’ championship. Three-time champion Sean Tarry (18-10) and Mike de Kock (7-1), who has won the title eight times, are the only others quoted by World Sports Betting.

Drill Hall winner Perovskia, unable to get a run in the Vodacom Durban July, has top Cape Town ambitions this season and Harold Crawford said: “The aim is the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate and, while I don’t yet know where he will start, he is now back in work.”

By Michael Clower

Every thoroughbred sale is a well of hope for those with the means and in some cases, those without the means, ask any trainer forced to retain shares in many of their string.

The million-rand tag for for an unknown yearling, with only its family and appearance to recommend them, has long been for the elite few. Some turn out fast, many turn out slow and quite a lot are in between, but the million figure is a watermark where expectations lap the levee banks menacingly and “I told you so” is only a short swim in either direction.

Gunner (Candiese Marnewick)

But as the cliché goes, “not trainer has ever committed suicide with an unraced yearling in his yard”. Hope springs eternal, but even for trainers who are fortunate enough to pick from the top of the tree, life is not easy and the regally bred R1 million yearling can become an albatross around their necks – owners turn sour and the ignorant public demanding results.

The price tag at least suggests that the horse has everything in the right place, but that is not a guarantee. As John Dunlop, trainer of Snaafi Dancer, a $10 million ($25 million in current dollars) yearling, lamented, “He walked very well, looked the part but was very slow.” So slow in fact that his owner, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum,  thought it would be embarrassing to run him in public. Snaafi Dancer was retired to stud duty where he was discovered to have fertility problems. From two years of breeding, he sired only four foals, three of which raced with limited success.

Standing on the rails one a chilly morning it became obvious. “Those three,” said the trainer, pointing out a trio of well-grown, striking two-year-olds, “cost over a ‘bar’ each. That one over there, cost 40k and might be the best of them.”

The point here is that the price tag does not guarantee success.

But a lot can happen between sales and a race as horses mature at different rates.

The precocious two-year-old who looks a star in the making, can prove a liability at three. A recent example is Gunner, a winner of the Gr1 Premier’s Champion Stakes at the end of his two-year-old career who took a further two years to win another race.

“He was precocious as a juvenile but you have to be careful of those horses,” cautioned trainer Paul Gadsby. “I never thought he was a Group 1 horse but he’s now down to a more competitive rating,” he commented after his last win.

Gunner has since won again.

Most horses in this country, especially those at the top of the tree, seldom race past six years old. In a personal observation, sprinters are either burned out or no longer competitive off high merit ratings while stayers are poorly catered for and a commercial liability for hard-pressed breeders who need early returns on commercially bred, precocious stock to stay in business.

By Andrew Harrison

Yutaka Take on Saturday became the first rider to reach 4,000 winners on the JRA circuit, further enhancing his position as Japan’s greatest-ever jockey.

Take, 49, brought up the record with a treble at Hanshin, where huge crowds packed in to watch him achieve the feat on Meisho Kazuhime in a 6f allowance race on turf.

Yutaka Take (Racing Post)

The benchmark was set by Take on his 21,235th ride, and the jockey said: “I am relieved I could achieve this record. I was able to do so because I have met many good people, and ridden many good horses, for many years. The owner of this horse (Yoshio Matsumoto) has supported us since my father’s time, so I am very happy.

“This is not the end. I would like to ride more and to grow more as a jockey. As for my next target? I want to win the next race!”

Take, who last year received the Longines & IFHA International Award of Merit, has succeeded at the top level all over the world, winning races such as the July Cup (Agnes World), Prix de l’Abbaye (Agnes World, Imperial Beauty), Hong Kong Cup (A Shin Hikari) and Dubai Duty Free (Admire Moon).

However, it is in his homeland where he has been the dominant force and been associated with champions such as Deep Impact, Vodka and Kitasan Black.

One of the greatest horses to have raced in Japan, Deep Impact was a dominant force in the country in the first decade of the 2000s. He became the first horse for 21 years to win Japan’s Triple Crown and claimed Grade 1 races from ten furlongs to two miles, but failed in his bid to become the country’s first Arc winner when only third to Rail Link in 2006 (subsequently disqualified for a banned substance).

Blessed with an outstanding turn of foot, Vodka achieved a raft of notable feats during her career, including winning the Japanese Derby (Tokyo Yushun) and Japan Cup (first filly for 20 years to do so). Take was not aboard on those occasions but he did ride the filly to Grade 1 success, including in the prestigious Tenno Sho (Autumn) in 2008.

The trailblazing sprinter landed two of Europe’s biggest sprints to supplement his victories at home, both times partnered by Japan’s most famous rider. The Abbaye came first in 1999, when he scored on his first attempt at five furlongs. He returned to Europe the following year to claim the July Cup by two short heads from Lincoln Dancer and Pipalong in a super finish.

– racingpost.com