Beware the false favourite
PUBLISHED: October 31, 2018
Prime example is today’s poly meeting at Greyville where Marcus has fancied rides in all of the seven races where he is pencilled in…
Any top jockey, and Piere Strydom has banged this drum for years, will tell you that they ride many a false favourite, simply because they are aboard. It is obviously testament to their ability but in the final analysis it is up to the punter to sort out what is a worthy favourite and what is possibly a false favourite.
Anton Marcus has almost free rein in KZN and, given his winning strike rate, he is not a bad judge when it comes to picking the plums. Currently lying second on the National Jockey log with a nearly 29% winning strike rate from a third of the number of mounts as log leader Muzi Yeni who is 13 winners clear and flits from centre to centre, the stats tell the story.
Prime example is today’s poly meeting at Greyville where Marcus has fancied rides in all of the seven races where he is pencilled in.
Two of those are for Brett Crawford. First up is Ultra Magnus in the second. Marcus partnered the colt to an easy end-to-end victory over course and distance first up and has stayed with the ride. The form of that race has proved to be a little suspect but the stable have high hopes and Ultra Magnus must surely have come on from the experience. He has also been an early touch, in from 4-1 to 2-1 in the early exchanges on Track & Ball.
The Dennis Drier pairing of JJ’s Captain and Rockcliffe are the most likely threats. Rockliffe was not far back in a decent handicap first up out of the maidens while JJ’S Captain has not been out since early June but has shown potential and stable rider Sean Veale is aboard.
Cruz Giovanni is next up for the Crawford/Marcus combination and they share early 2-1 favouritism with Alistair Gordon’s charge Sigismund. Marcus was aboard the latter when second best behind Blackburn Roc but with Wilgerbosdrift & Mauritzfontein retained rider Craig Zackey in town, riding arrangements have been reversed with Zackey aboard Cruz Giovanni on debut.
Both could be upstaged by Paddington’s Luck who was a smart second over 1900m last time out and drops to 1600m with the addition of blinkers.
Bookmakers have been unable to chose between stable companions Kazaar and Sir Bernadini in the Pinnacle Stakes and the betting may prove the best guide for punters as to which is the more fancied. Brandon Lerena is generally first call rider for owner Brian Bernard and has ridden both horses recently but Marcus is seldom short of a word or three when it comes to the art of persuasion. Gunner and Legend look pick of the balance.
Craig Eudey has handed in his trainer’s brief and Mike Miller will saddled Eetee in the opening leg of the Jackpot, a modest Qualified Maiden. The filly has only run one decent race in nine starts but Marcus takes over from an apprentice and a change of environment can often bring a horse on.
However, this is one race where one is advised to go very wide in your exotics. Shaylen Naidoo makes his first raid on KZN from his Turffontein base and Fuyu, who has shown good pace at her last two starts, should be well suited to the poly track and could prove the pick.
Mark Khan has teamed up with Duncan Howells and Silver Raisin is one of four horses vying for favouritism in the sixth. Laat Lammetjie, Dark Chocolate, Karatage and Pina Colada will all have their supporters.
Mythical Magic is a weak favourite for the seventh, possibly because of the present of Marcus in the saddle as their does not appear to be very much between most of the field. Vallanaut won well on the course last time out and can follow-up while Peggy’s Dream has been dropping steadily in the ratings and looks competitive on this line-up.
Robbie Hill’s filly Generate with Marcus aboard has been priced up 13-10 for the last after making a smart debut at Scottsville but there has been significant ante-post support for Chanel Allure who comes into the race off a barrier trial.
By Andrew Harrison
Greyville Wednesday Tips and Race Previews
PUBLISHED: October 31, 2018
Greyville Wednesday October 31 Tips and Race Previews by Andrew Harrison…
Greyville Wednesday Tips and Race Previews by Andrew Harrison
Race 1
1 Promising last effort after long break.
2 Two useful recent efforts. Chance.
3 Needs to show more.
4 Poor form. Rested. Has shown promise.
6 Consistent but needs to show more.
7 Useful last run this trip. Not out of it.
8 Needs to show more.
9 Modest trial but can improve on that.
10 Outpaced last run. Better this trip.
1 L’HISTOIRE 5 MYSTERIOUS OMEN 7 BELLS APOSTEL 2 LUCARA
Preview: L’HISTOIRE (1) showed up well when returning from a lengthy break. He trialled well and wears blinkers from a good draw. MYSTERIOUS OMEN (5) comes off a short break. He took on stronger at his last outing and had shown some promise before that. BELLS APOSTLE (7) improved last run when dropped in trip. Can feature here. LUCARA (2) is starting to come to hand and looks ready. Can go close. (Andrew Harrison: 1-5-7-2).
Race 2
1 In good form. Narrowly beaten last run. Back on poly.
2 Useful recent form over further.
3 Lengthy break but has shown promise.
4 Smart win on debut. Looks progressive.
5 Smart poly form. Can go close.
6 Rested. Met useful field last start.
7 Needs to show more.
8 Tough at these weights.
4 ULTRA MAGNUS 5 ROCKCLIFFE 1 CAPTAIN VON TRAPP 3 JJ’S CAPTAIN
Preview: ULTRA MAGNUS (4) was well supported on debut and won well. Can follow up. ROCKCLIFFE (5) showed up strongly first run out of the maidens. He could prove the pick of the Drier runners with JJ’S CAPTAIN (3) returning from a break but has the stable rider aboard. CAPTAIN VON TRAPP switches to the poly but has smart recent form and is overdue a win. SAND PATH (2) drops back to a sprint and could surprise. (Andrew Harrison: 4-5-1-3).
Race 3
1 Patchy form. Has been trying further.
2 Tries blinkers. Could surprise.
3 Can do better than recent. Marcus rides.
4 Some recent improvement. Chance here.
5 Highveld raider. Improved last two.
6 Shown some ability. Blinkers on.
7 Fair last run. Form stable.
8 Needs to show more.
9 Poor form.
10 Poor form.
11 Poor form. Blinkers on.
12 Poor form. Down in trip.
13 Poor form.
5 FUYU 3 EETEE 2 LEANDRA 7 WATCH ME GO
Preview: Difficult. Highveld raider FUYU (5) has come well at recent outings and could be the right one here. EETEE (3) has her first run for a new stable. Has shown some ability and with Marcus up must have a chance. LEANDRA (2) does not have the best of the draw but the blinkers go on and her better form has been over sprints. WATCH ME GO (7) comes from a very much in form stable and did show improvement last time out. (Andrew Harrison: 5-3-2-7).
Race 4
1 Beaten favourite last two. Better this trip.
2 Coming to hand. Will enjoy the extra.
3 Good last run. Blinkers on and can do better.
4 Poor form.
5 Some improvement last start.
6 Poor form.
7 Gelded. Can improve.
8 Smart debut from wide draw.
9 Modest debut.
10 Modest trial. Up in trip.
11 Showed up well on debut. Not out of it.
8 CRUZ GIOVANNI 1 SIGISMUND 3 PADDINGTONS LUCK 2 STONE TIGER
Preview: Competitive. CRUZ GIOVANNI (8) made a smart debut from a difficult draw on the Greyville turf. He has drawn well here and looks progressive. Wilgerbos-retained rider Craig Zackey replaces Marcus on SIGISMUND (1). Beaten favourite at his last two but can do much better over this trip. PADDINGTONS LUCK (3) was a little one-paced when second over further. The blinkers go on over this shorter trip. STONE TIGER (2) is coming to hand slowly and should enjoy the extra. All four have winning chances. (Andrew Harrison: 8-1-3-2).
Race 5
1 Seldom far back. Can go close.
2 Rested. More than useful.
3 Smart trial. Always in the money.
4 Unpredictable. Can surprise.
5 Rested. May need it.
6 Back in form but up in the handicap.
7 Rating drop. Can go close.
8 Chance on best effort.
9 Always game but in a tough one.
3 SIR BERNADINI 7 LEGEND 1 MR ROY 6 GUNNER
Preview: SIR BERNADINI (3) has yet to finish out of the money. He put in a cracking trial and will go close on his best form. LEGEND (7) has dropped nicely in the ratings and now looks competitive. MR ROY (1) has his third run after a break. He has a 4kg claimer up and will go close on his best showing. GUNNER (6) has come well of late and beat a smart colt last time out. However, he earned a five-pound penalty for that win. (Andrew Harrison: 3-7-1-6).
Race 6
1 Rested and has been trying further.
2 Promising last effort. Go close.
3 Holding form. Will be right there.
4 Useful last two on the turf. Should run well.
5 Two smart sprints. Jumps in trip.
6 Has been trying further. Can surprise.
7 Needs to improve on recent.
8 Surprised last run but has ability.
9 Trialled well. Needs to show more.
10 Back on poly. Upset chance.
11 Rating drop. Upset chance.
3 SILVER RAISIN 4 KARATAGE 5 KEEP IT REAL 8 PINA COLADA
Preview: SILVER RAISIN (3) has been in good form since her maiden win. From a good draw she should be competitive. KARATAGE (4) has shown up nicely at her last two. He best recent effort has been over course and distance. KEEP IT REAL (5) has put up two smart sprints. She jumps in trip and class but looks progressive. PINA COLADA (8) in never far back and only got a small penalty after her last win. (Andrew Harrison: 3-4-5-8).
Race 7
1 Disappointed in Kimberley.
2 First run new stable. Has done well on the poly.
3 Patchy form. Not out of it.
4 Much improved last run. Drops further in class.
5 Seldom far back. Go close.
6 Looks held on last two.
7 Better than attest. Can surprise.
8 Surprised last run. To hand now.
9 Consistent. Up in trip.
10 Smart last win. Can go in again.
12 Down in class. Switches to poly.
13 Long layoff.
4 MYTHICAL MAGIC 10 VALLANAUT 5 PEGGY’S DREAM 2 LIVERPOOL LASS
Preview: Open. MYTHICAL MAGIC (4) is down in class and caught the eye last time out. VALLANAUT (10) won well last start. She showed consistent form before that and can go in again. PEGGY’S DREAM (5) goes well over course and distance and has not been far back at recent starts. LIVERPOOL LASS (2) shed her maiden on the poly. Her recent Highveld form is not too bad and she has a decent chance in this line-up. (Andrew Harrison: 4-10-5-2).
Race 8
1 Overdue. Should go close.
2 Failed narrowly last run. Big chance.
3 Much improved last start. Needs to repeat.4 Poor form.
5 Improved last two. Tongue-tie back on.
6 Trialled well. One to watch.
7 Smart sprint debut. Drawn well.
8 Two modest trials.
9 Poor debut.
10 Two modest trials. Better this trip.
1 SILVER PRANCER 2 ADORNED BY BEAUTY 7 GENEREIGHT 6 CHANEL ALLURE
Preview: SILVER PRANCER (1) has been expensive to follow but may be worth one more chance as she has a better gate than what looks to be her biggest threat ADORNED BY BEAUTY (2) who was narrowly beaten over course and distance last time out. GENEREIGHT (7) made a smart sprint debut and with Marcus up needs to be respected. CHANEL ALLURE (6) caught the eye in her trial and is another to watch in the market. (Andrew Harrison: 1-2-7-6).
No whip race at Turffontein
PUBLISHED: October 30, 2018
“As a responsible operator/regulator there is a view that the current rules and penalties around the use of the whip are simply not good enough…”
A ban of the whip has been gaining momentum in the UK and Phumelela have showed their support for this movement by staging a race at Turffontein on Saturday in which jockeys will not be permitted to use whips.
Saturday sees the running of the R1-million Peermont Emperors Charity Mile and Clyde Basel, on-course sales and marketing executive for Phumelela, views the meeting as an ideal opportunity to introduce whip-free racing to the public. “Being Charity Mile we want to show that we are willing to take a positive step forward for those who support a welfare approach to the role of animals in our lives,” he said.
“As a responsible operator/regulator there is a view that the current rules and penalties around the use of the whip are simply not good enough and can be both improved and made clearer.
“Obviously much research still needs to be done but this is a perfect trial for Charity Mile day with the newbies (celebrities and the like) all watching, and in particular all the horse-related charities who will welcome this concept with open arms.”
Jockey Piere Strydom has been a keen exponent of the innovative move. “While the whips do not inflict pain on the horse, it still does a lot of damage to the image of the sport.
“I feel this is a very positive move and I congratulate the operator for coming up with the concept,” said Strydom.
Trainer Mike de Kock is another staunch supporter. “The first question we get from newcomers to the sport is ‘why do we whip horses’. It gives the sport a very poor image and I’ve been pushing his idea for months.
“There are no negatives. It can only be positive for horseracing.”
In 2011 The British Horseracing Authority (BHA) had a ten month review of the use of the whip and as a result they made new whip restrictions and instituted more severe penalties for whip offenses.
However at the time racing pundit John McCririck believed the sport had missed an ideal opportunity to boost its image by failing to ban hitting horses with the whip.
He described the BHA as ‘gutless’, but believed it would be just a matter of time before hitting horses would be a thing of the past.
‘We’ve been talking about the whip for 30 years and the fact is the whip is on the way out,’ he said. “There’s no other living creature on the planet you are legally allowed to hit.’
The restrictions soon had consequences as top jockey Richard Hughes threatened to hand in his jockey’s license after receiving two bans in less than a week. However, he did not follow through with the threat and won the British Jockeys Championships the following season.
The permitted number of uses of the whip with hands off the reins was restricted to seven times for Flat races and eight times for Jumps race in Britain.
Riders could only carry a specifically designed and approved energy absorbing whip.
This whip has cushioning and does not inflict nearly as much pain as the old whip did although it does make a loud noise. The use of this standardised whip is also compulsory in South Africa.
However, welfare groups want the whip banned completely and the petition Care 2 started three years ago in the USA was an eye opener in how racing outsiders view the whip.
They said, “The whip is used in horse racing to beat horses towards the end of the race when they’re tired or sore and want to slow down. This is cruel and inhumane. Yet, the horse racing industry gets away with it. Just like the bullhook, the whip is another torture device for animals. During Victor Espinoza’s ride on American Pharoah in the Kentucky Derby, he hit the horse 32 times with his whip.”
In horseracing mad Australia a poll was conducted on whether the whip should be banned and the results were interesting. Of people who never attended racing 90% said it should be banned, of those who attended once or twice a year 77% said it should be banned, those who attended more than monthly but less than weekly the figure was 47% and those who attended more than weekly it was 31%. These figures appear to show how detrimental to the sports image the whip is and with administrators around the world attempting to win new fans to the races the whip regulations probably need to be revisited.
The whip might help a horse on occasion, but is often detrimental to its cause. The best riders in the world know how to use it correctly and this is summed up by legendary South African jockey Michael “Muis” Roberts. He said he would usually give a horse a few light taps to test the response and if it was positive he would whip more freely, but would otherwise use it sparingly or not at all. “Fillies often don’t take kindly to the whip”, he said. However, Roberts also mentioned another use for the whip which most experienced racegoers would probably regard as its most important asset: when a horse begins floundering or hanging, the changing of the whip to another hand and giving it one smack can see it changing legs and finding another gear.
Hands and heels races, mainly for claiming apprentices, are regularly held in the UK. Saturday’s race at Turffontein is a welcome innovation and will likely lead to more such races.
By David Thiselton
Programme to encourage racegoers
PUBLISHED: October 30, 2018
Kenilworth has introduced a loyalty programme in a bid to encourage Cape Town racegoers to go to more racemeetings.
Anyone attending 12 or more fixtures between now and the end of the year will be eligible for a ticket (worth R300/350) to the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate on 5 January.
Events manager Clinton Theys said: “All racegoers have to do is complete a loyalty card form which is available from myself or Najwa in the Pocket Power room on the second floor. They have 16 meetings in which to collect the 12 stamps.”
By Michael Clower
Crown Towers can redeem himself
PUBLISHED: October 30, 2018
Justin Snaith was as shocked as the horse’s backers that day but he put the defeat down to the colt being caught flat-footed in a tail wind…
Crown Towers, who left punters stunned and painfully poorer when beaten at 1-3 five weeks ago, has the chance to redeem his reputation in the Bradbury Finance Handicap at Kenilworth today.
This is the horse who Paul Lafferty said “Could be the Guineas favourite” so impressive was he when winning on debut, yet he proved unable to win a six-runner Durbanville handicap. Justin Snaith was as shocked as the horse’s backers that day but he put the defeat down to the colt being caught flat-footed in a tail wind.
Richard Fourie’s mount seems sure to maintain his record of starting favourite each time he has raced – World Sports Betting opened him at 15-10 -but Snaith has reservations and explains: “He is doing very well and I am expecting a big run but he is going to have to be as good as we think he is if he is to win this.
“He was raised three points for finishing second and he has to give 4kg and 3.5kg to the other three-year-old maiden winners (Herodotus and Capoeira). Also I have been quiet with many of my horses as I have had a lot of two-year-olds coming in.”
What Snaith means is that two-year-olds are rather like small children going to school. They pick up every bug that is going and these infections can spread to the other horses. Three-year-olds are particularly at risk whereas four and five-year-olds have had more time to develop immunity.
Herodotus and Capoeira are joint second favourites at 4-1 with Aldo Domeyer’s mount What A Joker on 9-2. However what is suggested is an each way bet on Brandenburg. He was available at 25-1 yesterday and anything like those odds could prove better value each way than taking a skimpy price about the favourite. True, the four-year-old took ten races to win his maiden but he made all the running over this trip last time and both Paddy Kruyer and Morne Winnaar are in great form.
Silvano’s Pride in the Astra Maiden is another Snaith three-year-old with losses to recover. She started favourite at Durbanville on the same day as Crown Towers but she ran on too late. It looked as if Fourie had given her too much to do – how could you write such sacrilege, he will say! – but the stipes report’ reveals that his path was blocked for several strides at a crucial stage approaching the furlong marker. She is 2-1 favourite here and is preferred to both the badly drawn Star Fighter and Vomandla.
In the last there is precious little to choose between the main Snaith hope Minona and Cantata. The latter was caught on the line ten days ago and is marginally preferred.
In the Samson Foundation Maiden (race two) 18-10 favourite Almost Captured may have come on enough to account for 28-10 shot Au Revoir who returned from a lengthy absence to run well at Durbanville on Matchem day.
By Michael Clower








