Ground Control may be able to make his weight advantage tell sufficiently to upset hot favourite Minnesota Dream in the opening Juvenile Plate at Kenilworth today.

The Vaughan Marshall colt was fractionally odds-on for his debut and ran a good race to go under by only a length to Double Alliance. Six of the seven runners that day were newcomers but the winner made the form look respectable by going on to take fifth in the Listed race on Met day.

Minnesota Dream a stable companion of Double Alliance, won in spectacular style on debut ten days ago, losing a good six lengths at the break but finishing fast to score by three-quarters of a length. However the jury is still out on the exact worth of the form. All eight runners were first-timers, half of them were slowly away, most of them ran green and the favourite flopped.

There is no denying Minnesota Dream’s ability – he was a most impressive winner – and Joey Ramsden, asked if he had come on for the run, said: “I would hope so but I haven’t done enough with him to form an opinion.”

But S’Manga Khumalo’s mount has to concede weight all round and the 11-10 quoted by World Sports Betting is not giving much away. We all know how good the Marshall two-year-olds usually are and at 28-10 this one is preferred.

The chances are that the race will be fought out between the two market principals but it is worth noting that nine of the 12 Cape Town two-year-old races so far this season have been won by first-timers. There has been some money (8-1 to 6-1) for the Sean Tarry-trained Rock The Globe, presumably because the colt is down as Anton Marcus’s only ride of the day. However punters should watch for any jockey changes because the four-time champion said on Saturday that he would not be riding at this meeting.

Salt, who looked sure to win last time until caught close home, has been backed from 3-1 to 2-1 favourite for the TAB Telebet Maiden. He has a big chance but Vendee Globe is preferred at 5-2. The Andre Nel gelding would have finished closer on Met day but for losing ground at the start and Inertia, a head  behind that day, went on to beat Salt.

Middle Wood’s form is strong enough to suggest he will beat Nel’s Luxemburg in the Telllytrack.com Maiden and Brett Crawford can double up with St Vladimir in the Play Soccer 6 Handicap. Greg Cheyne’s mount is on a hat-trick and, although he went up 3kg for his last win, he scored comfortably and won easing up.

In the Betting World Maiden (race four) there is precious little to choose between 2-1 favourite Je Ne Sais Quoi and Transylvania who is available at twice that price. However the favourite is blinkered for the first time and that swings the balance.

By Michael Clower

The exotic bets have become easier to catch since the introduction of Assessment Plates in Gauteng as this usually leaves approximately one to three horses potentially well in at the weights.

Punters could also find an edge in other races if keeping up to date with the handicapping system in South Africa, which can leave horses potentially well weighted even in handicaps.

South African handicapping is based on the globally popular Merit Rating system but a number of rules have been added to restrict the handicappers’ power.

The restrictions are in place to prevent horses from becoming unfairly handicapped.

An offshoot is that some horses slip through the net and become well handicapped.

Listed below is a sample of five of the many rules which can potentially leave a horse as an eye-catcher at the weights.  

1) The maximum penalty applicable to any handicap on either surface shall not be higher than 8 merit rated points. This is not applicable to Graded and Listed races, or horses carrying over-weight or weighted under sufferance. (A recent amendment said this also applies to Listed handicaps).

If a horse wins a 1600m handicap by five lengths it could be in for a potential raise of ten merit rated points considering one length equals two points over that trip. However, the handicapper will only be able to give it a maximum of eight points due to the above rule, so it should theoretically be 1kg well in when next running in a handicap. Of course if a six-year-old achieves such a feat it should be treated with caution as it might have been due to freak circumstances. However, if a progressive three-year-old achieves it, one should sit up and take notice.

2) For Grade 1 and Grade 2 races there is upward Adjustment to the first 5 finishers only and in Listed and Grade 3 races upward adjustment to placed horses only.  Related to this is a recent amendment stating: The winner and placed horses in a Grade 2 or Grade 3 race is capped at a 10 point penalty for the winner, 5 points for 2nd place and 3 points for 3rd place.

A good example of a horse who has become potentially well handicapped due to the above restrictions is Senatla. This horse finished 2,25 lengths behind the merit rated 115 Twist Of Fate in the Grade 3 Politician Stakes over 1800m when receiving 7kg. On that run he was only 18 merit rated points inferior to Twist Of Fate, which put him on a 97 rating, although the horses who finished around him suggested he had run to his 84 merit rating. He was only allowed to be given a five point raise so went to an 89. Then in the Grade 1 Cape Derby over 2000m he finished seventh so escaped punishment. He finished two lengths behind Bunker Hunt, who went up to a 100 merit rating, so on paper Senatla should in comparison be about a 97 over that distance. Therefore, he will be potentially well handicapped off his 89 rating next time. This is particularly in light of the 2000m trip of the Derby having likely stretched him. His best trip, as one who races quite strongly, looks to be from 1400m to a mile. He is one to look out for in a forthcoming handicap.

The Sun Met sixth-placed Doublemint will also be well handicapped for the Vodacom Durban July. He escaped punishment and remained on a 104 merit rating despite having finished on top of five horses who are now all rated in the 120s.

The July horse who fell in to that boat last year was African Night Sky, having also finished sixth in the Met. He duly started favourite for the July and could well have gone close had there been a truer pace as he unfortunately began pulling the jockey’s arms off. 

3) Currently, a 4 y.o. and older maiden winner must be capped at a nett MR of 70 in a major centre, 65 in PE, 60 in Kimberley and 58 in Zimbabwe. The discretion to vary this in exceptional circumstances no longer applies.

This restriction can leave late blooming horses well handicapped on occasion and they are then able to run up a sequence of handicap wins. A good example can be provided by Chepardo, who made his debut in the November of his four-year-old year. He was given the maximum rating of 70 for his comfortable win over 1160m and won his next three races, all handicaps from 1200-1700m, comfortably.

4) In minor plate races placed horses will not be adjusted upwards unless requested by the connections.

Horses can run close up in plate races when way under sufferance at the weights and they then look well handicapped when running next time out in a handicap. However, punters should be wary of this scenario as top horses often use races such as Pinnacle events as a preparation and the lower rated horses can be flattered, so it is worth watching the replays to see just how hard ridden the higher rated horses were.

5) Horses not having made the anticipated WFA improvements must be brought back to its highest achieved nett rating within 3 runs. 

In this regard watch out for young horses who come down the ratings and are then stepped up to a potentially more suitable trip. This can be seen in the career of Wonderous Climber, who easily won a Maiden Juvenile Plate over 1600m in the May of his two-year-old season and was accorded a merit rating of 85. He then continually disappointed and his gross merit rating had to be continuously dropped to keep up with his highest achieved nett merit rating. He had eventually plummeted down to a 61 gross merit rating by the November of his four-year-old year. This corresponded almost identically with his highest achieved nett merit rating considering two-year-olds in May receive 23 half-kilograms over 1600m (85-23=62). However, he then found his forté when stepped up to staying trips and won four handicaps on the trot.

The handicapping guidelines and accompanying amendments and restrictions can be found on www.nhra.co.za. It can pay to learn their ins and outs.

By David Thiselton

Chesney van Zyl, recently granted boxes at Summerveld where he could join father Gavin and brother Gareth in the near future, has fired a couple of salvos already with Marchingtontogether winning last week and Sea Venture landing her short odds in the fifth at Greyville yesterday although the filly’s supporters were poised to tear up their tickets two furlongs out.

It’s not often that Anton Marcus gets himself into trouble but he was faced with an N2 traffic jam as he looked to make his run up the centre. But like a good mini bus taxi driver, he switched to the yellow lane and Sea Venture responded with alacrity like any 9-20 shot should, going on to win as she like. “Jockeys like to ride horses like this,” said Marcus, panting in the heat. “She was far superior to the rest of the field.”

“I thought there was enough space,” said Marcus of the gap that appeared in front of him but will have had visions of Friday night when apprentice Jason Gates lost his compass for the umpteenth time costing Marcus of any chance he had of winning. “He should have been had up for attempted murder,” said Marcus after he had scored a narrow win on odds-on favourite Genereight for Robbie and Shannon Hill in the first although the line came just in time as Diego de Gouveia was closing fast on out-of-province raider Oona.

De Gouveia, who has improved markedly as a rider since moving to the Highveld, made amends for that narrow defeat as he rode a superb finish on Bel Canto Chorus for Stuart Pettigrew in the fourth. He tracked the pace all the way through before making his move. “This won’t be the last time that you will be seeing her. She loves the poly.”

Runaway Gal, just short of an outing in her come-back run, made light work of the sixth as Brett Crawford’s filly scooted away from her rivals with Lyle Hewtison copying a bike rider on a down-hill stretch of the Tour de France as he coasted to the line.

O’Keeffe kept up her remarkably consistent form on the poly track, never finishing further back than second as she edged out Ella’s World.

Runaway Gal was Mario Ferreira’s second winner of the afternoon after a never-say-die ride on Flamenco Dancer for Dennis Bosch. Favourite Spring Breeze led into the final 50 m but was swamped by a tidal wave of runners led by Flamenco Dancer who go home by a head with Spring Breeze back in fifth, beaten less than a length.

Former champion Mark Khan, out of action for close on a decade before making a comeback last year, drew on all his reserves to get favourite Mylisha home in the shadow of the post for Lezzeanne Forbes whose stable has come to hand nicely in recent weeks.

It was a day of favourable results for the most part but the bomb landed in the last where Silver Cent landed a 40-1 body blow under Eric Ngwane for Lola Crawford.

By Andrew Harrison

Trainers are expressing concern about security following the horrific attack on Eric Sands at Cape Town’s Milnerton Training Centre last week.

The Sun Met-winning trainer, who is 62, was in the yard of his stables around 6.00pm last Wednesday when an intruder burst in wielding an axe and charged towards Sands. The trainer, with considerable presence of mind and no little courage, ran at the man and hit him with the point of his shoulder.

The assailant lost his balance and fell. But Sands’ advantage was short-lived. Three more men appeared and they were armed with knives. In no time it was Sands who was on the ground and in mortal danger. One of the trio was intent on smashing his face in.

“He had a pellet gun. I was on my back and I couldn’t really move. I saw him lift the gun and prepare to bring it down, butt first, into my face,” Sands related. “In the last fraction of a second I managed to move my head sideways and the butt only grazed my cheek.”

It was a bit more than a graze – the scar is still clearly visible. The men tied up Sands in his office before making off with R7 500 in cash as well as some foreign currency left over from overseas trips.

There was a security man on duty but he was on the road frontage side of the stables guarding the cars. Apparently he is under orders to stay put until the last of the cars has left and, in any case, he heard nothing.  However somebody obviously knew that there was cash on the premises and tipped off the raiders. Sands has let it be known that he is prepared to pay a reward for information leading to the arrest of the men and he has so far received some feedback.

Greg Ennion, whose yard adjoins Sands’ stables, said: “It is believed that the quality of the security has deteriorated markedly over the last two years. They must improve it. We are paying for security as it is included in our rent.”

Candice Bass-Robinson’s yard is further up the road and she said: “Phumelela has to work on this. It happened to Harold Crawford a few years ago (November 2013) and we can’t have this sort of thing – otherwise it’s only a matter of time before it happens to us all.”

She pointed to the obvious dangers of a woman sitting in the office of a yard on her own but she was thinking, not of herself, but of assistant Mel Arnold who is often working there on a Saturday afternoon when the rest of the complex is either off duty or at the races.

The most famous Milnerton attack came over 20 years ago when Joey Ramsden, then assistant to Vaughan Marshall, was attacked by two men when he was paying the wages. One had a gun and the other a knife which he plunged into Ramsden’s padded jacket.

Seemingly, and dangerously, not a lot has changed.

By Michael Clower

Justin Snaith is set on making Kasimir Equus Champion Sprinter after Richard Fourie’s mount followed up his Cape Flying Championship success by taking the Khaya Stables Diadem Stakes at a crowd-filled Kenilworth on Saturday.

“Sprinter of the Year is a big thing for me and Kasimir has won every main sprint race we could throw at him this season,” he said. “He won’t go for the Computaform – he will have a break – but he will go to Durban for the Mercury Sprint.”

Snaith, also on the mark the Corne Orffer-ridden Libra, was limping like the proverbial wounded soldier – apparently the result of a swollen foot developed as he tried to get himself ready to race. There were no shortage of medical experts in the crowd offering advice including one woman who had a Latin name for the affliction and a dire warning of what would happen if he does nothing about it.

Joey Ramsden was a little unlucky not to win the Diadem with 44-1 shot Speedpoint who was fast closing the gap and went down by only a short head. He had better luck with Rose In Bloom in the same Brian and Kathy Finch colours in the Vasco Prix Du Cap, thanks in no small part to a power-packed S’Manga Khumalo ride.

Ramsden, winning this for the sixth time in 15 seasons, said: “She is an absolute superstar. She got pneumonia coming back from Jo’burg and was in hospital for 12 days. Yet she promptly finished fourth in the Sceptre. She is for sale and she is piro-free.”

But it was Vaughan Marshall who stole the show with his latest Captain Al star. Captain Of Stealth,a R500 000 CTS Premier purchase, was backed from evens to 6-10 for the 1 400m Divine Jet Maiden Juvenile, led after two and a half furlongs and coasted home over five lengths clear with M.J. Byleveld waving his index finger as if he had a message to impart.

Indeed he had, saying: “This horse has a massive action and a huge cruising speed, and my only concern was that he had never been off the bit.”

Marshall, who also trains his triple wining half-sister Rocket Girl, confirmed that the colt will go the One World route (Langerman) and added: “He is a super horse. I think he is something special.”

He is 20% owned by Johannesburg-based John Habib and 80% by a thrilled Pat Freestone who also part owns Rocket Girl and related: “I said to Vaughan at the sales that I wanted to have a go at the big time but this was the first occasion I realised that he was going to be good. It was more than exciting. Indeed I’m still shaking – but boy oh boy, he didn’t want to stop. What can he do next?”

Next on the agenda for the first two legs of a Candice Bass-Robinson/Aldo Domeyer treble is Durban. Vandah’s Spirit, who made it look so easy in the Kepu Trading Juvenile, goes for the Allan Robertson at Scottsville while Aeolus OTR Kenilworth Cup winner Pacific Chestnut has the Gold Vase and the eLan Gold Cup on his bucket list.

Anthony Andrews now has some idea of how John The Baptist felt – only in his case the wilderness lasted four times as long – yet throughout the barren spell he has remained cheerful (outwardly anyway) and positive, and he rode a peach of a race to win the Selangor Jet Master on Run Red. “Anthony is an unsung hero. He rides a lot of our work at home yet he doesn’t really get the chances,” said Andre Nel, paying tribute.

William Bambiso made his experience tell on River Rhone in the Work Riders Maiden but the stipes were so appalled at the general standard of riding that they had all six of them in and warned them that their licences could be in jeopardy if their riding does not improve.

BLOB The size of the crowd, and the overall atmosphere, attracted favourable comment from a succession of Tellytrack interviewees. Events Officer Clinton Theys, who is entitled to take a bow, said: “At a thumbsuck we had between 3 500 and 4 000 here although it seemed more than last year. Certainly people stayed longer this time.”

By Michael Clower