NHA CEO Vee Moodley emphasised that the handicapping guidelines are “guidelines not rules” and added a press release would be sent out whenever there had been a deviation from the guidelines.

A press release was sent out explaining the merit rated changes made after the running of the SA Derby and SA Oaks and it was clear to all who know the guidelines that the handicappers had deviated.

The NHA have risked opening a can of worms as there was no warning given at nomination stage that one particular guideline would be deviated from for the first time since its inception in 2012.

There have been three “updates” to the handicapping guidelines this decade.

In the June 2012 update one of the points stated, “Grade 1 & 2 races Upward Adjustment to first 5 finishers only.”

However, in the merit rating changes made after last weekend, the Grade 1 SA Derby 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th placed horses were all adjusted upward and the Grade 2 SA Oaks 6th placed horse was adjusted upward.

The press release wording relevant to the SA Derby stated, “In other changes, SENOR LIZARD was raised from 85 to 88, ARLINGTONS REVENGE goes up from 80 to 84, MASTER MAGIC was raised from 80 to 84, ZANAKI goes up from 78 to 83, and LAST OF THE LEGEND was upped from 78 to 81.  These horses finished from 5th place to 9th, and in doing this it is ensured that these five horses would meet one another on the correct weight terms in a handicap race.  This satisfies the definition of a handicap.  The only other change was OWLINTHETREE, whose rating was cut from 99 to 91.”

And for the SA Oaks it stated, “PRETTY BORDER (6th) goes up from 72 to 80 in order that she is not rated below last placed FARIHA, who remains unchanged on 80.” 

The reasons for the changes are made clear.

However, owners and trainers of the above horses might have been taken by surprise.

If any of these owners or trainers subsequently have a horse facing Doublemint in a handicap they will be justified in arguing that the latter horse finished just 3,50 lengths back in the Sun Met in 6th place yet remains on a lowly 104 merit rating. The five horses who finished ahead of him are now merit rated between 118 and 125 and he finished ahead of the 121 merit rated Oh Susanna.

The point is how consistently are the handicappers going to deviate from the guidelines and will owners and trainers know when to expect the deviations?

If the handicappers have carte blanche then the luxury owners and trainers have had since June 2012 of testing horses in Grade 1 and Grade 2s in the hope they are good enough might be over. From 2012 until this week they had been safe in the knowledge that failing to earn a cheque in such a race would at least ensure no upward adjustment to their horse’s merit rating.

On the other hand Moodley is one of the most respected handicappers in the country and it should be borne in mind that in its purest form the merit rating system has no restrictive guidelines. In England, for example, handicapping is done purely on the handicappers’ interpretations of the race.

With Moodley now in charge of the NHA and two equally knowledgeable stalwarts in Lennon Maharaj and Matthew Lips doing the handicapping, perhaps it is time more trust was placed in their own discretion and interpretations.

Their task at present is onerous. There is pressure on them to satisfy international committees that certain races deserve Grade 1 or Grade 2 status, but on the other hand they must pay heed to guidelines aimed at preventing horses from being unfairly punished.

However, punishment is relative and in protecting one band of horse, others must be getting punished.

Ultimately, handicapping done by the pure interpretation of handicappers who know what they are doing must surely be the best solution and Moodley, Maharaj and Lips do know what they are doing.

By David Thiselton

Leg 3 Triple Crown & Wilgerbosdrift Triple Tiara – Turffontein – 30 March 2019

• SA Derby (Grade 1)

After a thorough assessment and discussion between the NHA Handicappers, SAMURAI WARRIOR was given a merit rating of 105 following his front running victory under a masterful ride from Jockey Piere Strydom in the SA Derby (Grade 1) at Turffontein on Saturday 30 March 2019 over 2450m. Ironically he was the only participant in the race that had contested over this aptitude twice before and was also placed in the listed event.  The Handicappers are satisfied that the new rating is a fair reflection of SUMURAI WARRIOR’S performance and the race level is still 10 MR points below the international threshold for a Grade 1 race.

In analysing what appeared to be a race run at a slow pace, the handicappers were of the opinion that third placed MARCHINGONTOGETHER would not have run worse by finishing third at Grade 1 level than when he won a non-black type Feature at Scottsville in February.  Accordingly, it was this performance by MARCHINGONTOGETHER that was used as the line to rate the SA Derby.   This equates to MARCHINGONTOGETHER running to a rating of 102 in the Derby, and this is the rating that has been allocated to him.  Derby runner-up ZILLZAAL had his rating dropped from 106 to 105, thus making him equal to the winner.

Fourth placed ATYAAB’S rating remains unchanged on the 105 he was made after he won the Cape Derby two starts back.  As a recent Grade 1 winner who may not have been entirely suited to the pace at which the SA Derby was run, it is believed that it would be premature to drop his mark and for now we are happy to keep him on a rating higher than that of both the winner and the runner-up.

In other changes, SENOR LIZARD was raised from 85 to 88, ARLINGTONS REVENGE goes up from 80 to 84, MASTER MAGIC was raised from 80 to 84, ZANAKI goes up from 78 to 83, and LAST OF THE LEGEND was upped from 78 to 81.  These horses finished from 5^th place to 9^th, and in doing this it is ensured that these five horses would meet one another on the correct weight terms in a handicap race.  This satisfies the definition of a handicap.  The only other change was OWLINTHETREE, whose rating was cut from 99 to 91.

• H F Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes (Grade 1)

SOQRAT remains unchanged on a rating of 124 after his win in the Grade 1 Horse Chestnut Stakes over 1600m.  This performance confirms SOQRAT’S status as the  best three-year-old colt over 1600m presently in training, but it was felt that he by no means needed to improve on his 124 rating to win this race.   It was fourth placed TILBURY FORT who was used the line horse to rate this race.

The strength of the three-year-old crop was greatly underlined in the Horse Chestnut Stakes, with CIRILLO beaten less than one length into second and finishing well ahead of the older horses.  This looks to be an outstanding crop of three-year-old males, and in the wake of this performance CIRILLO’S rating has been upped from 111 to 114. 

The Handicappers took into consideration that UNAGI is a 5 year old that has not been able to win for almost 2 years and only adjusted him to 106 and not the 110 he achieved. In other changes, CASCAPEDIA was dropped from 110 to 109, LEGAL EAGLE had his rating cut from 120 to 118, AL DANZA drops to 104 from 106, and WILL PAYS is down from 114 to 112.

• Wilgerbosdrift S A Oaks (Grade 2)

RETURN FLIGHT was given a new rating of 106 after she comfortably won the Grade 2 Wilgerbosdrift  SA Oaks over 2450m under another extremely well-judged ride from Piere Strydom.  This represents a slight increase of one pound on the 105 rating she was given after she won the Grade 1 SA Fillies Classic.  In rating the Oaks, it was runner-up BLOSSOM who was used as the line horse and accordingly her rating remains unchanged on 103.  Third placed SEVILLE ORANGE was raised from 91 to 99, while fourth placed BIZE was upped from 79 to 97.  These two fillies were rated relative to fifth placed CHITENGO, so that the three would meet one another on the correct terms in a handicap race.  In other changes, SECOND REQUEST was dropped from 104 to 99, while PRETTY BORDER goes up from 72 to 80 in order that she is not rated below last placed FARIHA, who remains unchanged on 80.

Sean Tarry spoke about all of his runners for Saturday’s big meeting at Turffontein, where he has a full card and will try to make history with Legal Eagle. The latter will become the first horse since Pocket Power to win the same Grade 1 race four times in succession in South Africa if he lands the Grade 1 weight for age HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes.

Race 1: “Just My Luck may just need the run.”

Race 2: He said Silver Spectrum had scope and should enjoy the step up in trip.  

Race 3 (Grade 3 Pretty Polly Stakes 1100m): “Emerald Tiara is well and I expect a good run, she’s got a chance, but it will be hard to beat Fly Away and Gin Fizz.”

Race 4 (Grade 3 Protea Stakes 1100m): Cavivar. “They were a bit quicker than her last time so the extra 100m and the weight turnaround will help. I have the measure on how good she is against the colts here so it would have been silly to change back to the fillies’ race.”

Race 5 (Grade 3 Man O’War Sprint 1100m): Chimichuri Run. “He is well in with the males but he is still carrying 60kg and has to give weight away, but he is the best horse in the race. The low draw doesn’t really worry me, it depends on the day, although it is not ideal.”

Carbon Atom. “He has good form, the horse he was behind last time Mardi Gras came out and won a big race, so he must have some sort of chance. His work has been good and he is in good order. He is by Fort Wood but is taking after his dam Welwitschia (classy sprinter who stayed 1400m), although this 1100m would be at the bottom of his distance range.”

“Summer Afternoon is well weighted with some and should be competitive.”

Race 6 (Grade 1 HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes 1600m): Tarry believes Legal Eagle was flat on the day of the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate and added, “He is well. His Met race was a good run, he was 10^th at the 400m mark and ran just 2,25 lengths back. He had the same fractions over the last 400m as he had last year in a sprint so just came from too far back and it was a good effort. I’ve never had him fully wound up for this race. There has to be a balance as he was given a couple of weeks off after the Met before preparing him for this race, so he hasn’t had a prep and we cannot expect him to have him 100%, he is at about 90%.” However, that hasn’t stopped him in previous years and he goes for his fourth victory in a row in this race.

Cirillo – “I always thought he would stay a mile. In the Premier’s Champions Stakes at Greyville as a two-year-old he worked way too hard to get around from a bad draw. I have only tried a mile with him once since in the Cape Guineas and the horses between him and the winner, Twist Of Fate and One World, have franked the form. It is a big ask but worth a try.”    

Tilbury Fort – “He is a workmanlike horse who saves his best for race day. He is in a good space but it is hard to say he can beat them at level weights, although he has a lot more chance than a lot of the others. He could still be on the up, there could be improvement to come. I didn’t really know where to run him, there was a 2000m event coming up where he would have had to carry topweight. Running him in the Champions Challenge will get him a penalty for nothing for the July, so running him here could tell us where we are and which route to take.” 

Race 7 (Grade 2 Wilgerbosdrift SA Oaks 2450m): “Return Flight is a galloper who loves this galloping course. She is in good order and is a big runner. A mile is way to short for her now and 2000m is probably her perfect distance but I am confident she will see out this 2450m trip.”

“Second Request was a bit disappointing in the SA Fillies Classic but it was a very slow run race, she will prefer a harder run race and going 2450m should suit her, so she will be a runner.”

Race 8 (Grade 1 SA Derby 2450m): “Last Legend is a nice horse with quality and I think he will get the trip. This race may be too soon, but I think he will run a decent race.”

Zillzaal – “I was very disappointed in his SA Classic run, he was sweating up and cantering down with the pony didn’t work out well. I expect improvement. Hawwaam looks hard to beat but he has a chance of beating the rest of the field.”

Race 9 (Grade 3 Caradoc Gold Cup 2850m): “Wonderous Climber is not well weighted being 4kg out with Noble Secret and out with some others, so he is not running off his 85 merit rating which is a good mark for him and it is his first time over the distance. But he is very well, so whether I am throwing him in the deep end or not, I am not sure.”

Race 10 (Listed Jacaranda Handicap 1800m): Tambalang – “It is a tough race but I expect big improvement from her.”

“Jamra has the form to be a contender here but I am concerned the run comes too soon after her first run.”

Race 11 (1600m). Pilou. “He maybe did not go quick enough last time in the front (over 1800m). He is back to his best form distance and is in good order so should have a chance.”

Shenanigans. “It might come too quick after his comeback run and he might just need it from a fitness point of view.”   

Race 12 (1400m): Aurora Australis – “He wasn’t trying so I tried to keep him over the same course and distance for all of his runs and he might be looking for a bit further now. He comes from off them which makes it difficult for him, so the smaller field will suit him as he won’t have so much ground to make up. If he doesn’t shape I will switch him to a mile.”

By David Thiselton

Elusive Trader can defy joint top weight and beat his five older rivals in the Play Soccer Handicap at Durbanville tomorrow – and recent form suggests his chance is better than the 3-1 being offered by the bookmakers.

Greg Ennion’s charge, who has already earned R1 million more than his R300 000 purchase price, was raised six points for his second in the CTS 1200 but he ran above his new rating when four and a half lengths seventh of 14 to Kasimir in the Diadem and Sandile Mbhele’s 1.5kg claim is an added bonus.

The gelding has been to Durbanville before – he very nearly upset Pleasedtomeetyou in the Sophomore. You could argue that he needs a furlong further – he has only run over tomorrow’s trip on his first two starts (he won both) but at 3-1 you can’t have everything.

The one preferred by World Sports Betting (and probably by the other layers too when they post their prices) is the hat-trick-seeking Bwana who is 11-10 favourite but he has also been racing over further than this.

Aldo Domeyer’s best prospects – or at least the shortest priced of them -are for Andre Nel in the last two races but he can take races two and four for Candice Bass-Robinson and both are at more attractive odds.

Scottish Ally (33-10) was taking on hot company in a winner’s race won by the Grade 1-aimed Vandah’s Spirit on debut and ran a creditable fourth. That run suggests she can beat her six opponents in the TAB Telebet Juvenile Plate, the most promising of whom are 13-10 favourite Ibra (made a noise when running well first time, according to both the vet and her jockey) and 9-2 chance Lumiere who overcame a slow start on debut.  Cyber Blossom (9-2) has been running consistently well and should again get into the shake-up.

Cradleofgratitude, Domeyer’s mount in the Tellytrack.com Maiden (race five), is available at 9-2 despite beating all except a potentially smart sort in Scribner here three weeks ago. True, he is a four-year-old without a win (definitely a bad sign!) but he still makes the most appeal.

The opening Juvenile Plate is a tricky affair but Kamadeva looks too short at 16-10 and I prefer stable companion Mister Vargus at 33-10. The danger is probably Domeyer’s mount Minnesota Dream (3-1) whose previous win means he shoulders a 3kg penalty.

Bitter Lemon is 2-1 favourite for race four and should be able to reverse last time’s placings with Alfred’s Girl as Greg Cheyne’s mount came from a wide draw that day.

By Michael Clower

Duncan Howells holds five cards in a ten-card field in the Jonsson Workwear Handicap on the Greyville poly tonight. The trick here is to pick the trump card – if he has one that is.

Most likely is the three-year-old Beat It who took to the poly with a smart victory over the speedy Yaas last time out. Beat It is not the easiest and can be a little hot in the preliminaries but she does have ability and appears to have taken to the synthetic surface.

Biggest threats could come in the form of Diamond Noir and Queen Of Alamo. Diamond Noir scored a narrow victory on the poly last time out beating Petra. The runner-up had shown early promise but had lost form before showing what she is capable off last time out.

Queen Of Alamo found a rejuvenated Miss Frankel too hot to handle in her most recent start but started at long odds although her best form has come on the poly.

Of the stable companions to Beat It, Dawn Calling is the most accomplished of the Howells runners but drops to a sprint after contesting the Michael Roberts Handicap while Lunar Rush is always dangerous and has been dropping in the handicap. From a good draw she is far from out of this while Accidental Tourist is something of a poly track specialist and can upset.

On a tricky card, Garth Puller’s runner Mana Santana could provide a life-line for exotic bet punters in the Drakenstein Stud Maiden Plate. Mana Santana was a beaten favourite last run but is by far the highest rated runner in the race and has a claiming apprentice aboard that should further enhance his chances.

Fabian Habib makes his first trip to Greyville as a trainer when he saddles a pair of ‘eagles’. Kayla’s Eagle can make it a winning debut when she contests the Betting World Maiden, second on the card. Kaya’s Eagle has improved with every outing and looks primed for this event although she will face stiff opposition from the likes of Maket and Green Caviar.

Tana’s Eagle faces a more difficult task in the Hollywoodbets Handicap, last race on the card. It is a seriously tricky race and best advice may be to go as wide a finances permit in the exotics.

Apprentice Xola Jacobs has only managed a single win in his short career but is more than capable and with his 4kg claim, Sarabi makes a lot of appeal. She will only have 50.5kg on her back over her preferred course and distance. Jacobs was aboard Yaas when touched off by Beat It last time out and a repeat of that effort can see her turn the tables on Louis Goosen’s runner.

The Track & Ball Apprentice Handicap could provide a rocky start to the Pick 6 with any number of runners in with chances. Walterthepenniless has improved in blinkers and won well first time out of the maidens. He looks capable of further improvement and could again consign The Private to a runner-up berth in spite of Michael Roberts’s gelding going well over course and distance although from a good draw should be right there. Trust In Gold was a recent maiden winner but that form has since been franked. He is also lightly raced and can still improve. Finally, Don Pierro has his first run for a new stable. He is not the easiest and races in pacifiers for the first time but does have ability and a win would not come as a surprise.

• Owing to a high demand for barrier trials on the Scottsville turf, a third trial has been added to Sunday’s meeting. Please check amended times and fields.

By Andrew Harrison