The Vodacom Durban July day Pick pool is estimated to reach R15 million and the first leg, the Grade 3 DSTv Gold Vase over 3000m is the first hurdle punters face.

The race is run under merit rated band conditions, which favours females as they also receive a 2,5kg allowance.

The order from best to worst weighted horses according to official merit ratings is as follows and the number of kgs they are under sufferance is in brackets: Sunshine Silk, Dynasty’s Blossom (1kg), Flichity By Farr (1kg), Strathdon (2kg), Walter Smoothie (2,5kg), Mangrove (3,5kg), Wealthy (3,5kg), Pacific Chestnut (4,5kg), Run Rhino Run (4,5kg), Wonderous Climber (5kg), Warfarer (5,5kg), Paths Of Victory (5,5kg), Ballad Of The Sea (6kg), Multi Gold (6kg), Evolver (6,5kg), Major Return (7,5kg).

However, staying races have often made fools of handicappers as some horses are still establishing themselves over marathon trips. Horses at the bottom of the weights can never be ignored in these events.  

The best weighted horse Sunshine Silk has developed into an exciting stayer and comes off a prep run over 1400m that followed a hattrick of staying wins from 2400m to 3200m including the Gold Bowl. Being by Silvano she should enjoy Greyville and although she has a wide draw she is capable of running on from behind. 

Topweight Strathdon looks to have enjoyed a fine preparation and will be a big runner if running to his best. From his wide draw the jockey will have to play it by ear. He is capable of running on from behind if dropped out and that is the likely tactic as he did not appear to enjoy leading last time. He hasn’t won for 567 days but is classy and always has a shout.

Flichity By Farr comes off a good second in the Track And Ball Oaks and finished second in this race last year when running on strongly from off the pace. She is a tough filly and the two week gap from her last run will suit her. She will need a fast pace to be at her best although in the Oaks last time she was closer to the pace than usual turning for home from a good draw, so they might try and slot her in here from her wide draw. 

Dynasty’s Blossom raced a bit strongly in the Track And Ball Oaks and can do better if settling well from a good draw of seven. She has gone close over 2800m before and has done well over 3200m. She should be cherry ripe and is one of the dark horses.    

The lightweight Major Return is an interesting runner and his form has been working out well. He is by Vodacom Durban July winner Bold Silvano out of a Sadler’s Wells mare so should stay the trip with that combination. On the other hand his half-brother is the useful sprinter Pacific Spirit, but he does run like stayer and when sent over 2400m in his penultimate start he burst clear and was then only caught by the exciting staying prospect Horace. He is drawn well in two.

Walter Smoothie has a good draw and the last time he had such a draw he finished 2,10 lengths behind Sunshine Silk. He has some class and is 3kg better off with her from that run so must have a chance.

Paths Of Victory should relish this trip judging on his running on third over 2400m at Scottsville three runs ago in April. He was beaten just 0,25 lengths by Strathdon in that race and faces him on the same terms, which will be in his favour as he should have made 1kg of improvement since then according to the weight for age scale if the distances are taken into account. 

Warfarer was running on over 2400m three runs ago at Scottsville and he was beaten just 2,45 lengths by Strathdon in that race and is now half-a-kilogram better off. He is a dark horse as a big staying type who should enjoy this trip, although he does have a wide draw.

Wonderous Climber took to staying races well but after five wins from 2200m to 2400m the handicapper might have caught up with him, although he does have a good draw and should be staying on in the straight.

Pacific Chestnut has his third run since winning the Kenilworth Cup over 3200m but didn’t inspire confidence last time when never dangerous in the Lonsdale Stirrup Cup where he was beaten eight lengths.

Wealthy has won over 2400m before and is capable of running on from behind so is interesting stepped up to this trip.

Mangrove looks like an out and out stayer but he has been one paced in the finish in his two 2400m efforts and will need dramatic improvement.

Run Rhino Run won a race over course and distance by 21 lengths in October 2017 so has ability but is quirky and in his first run after layoff last time he was beaten 31 lengths and was not striding out. 

Evolver has hard knocking staying form in Port Elizabeth and Yvette Bremner has had a fantastic season raiding other centres. He can’t be written off.

Ballad Of The Sea is 3kg better off with Evolver for a four length beating over 3200m at Fairview so there is not much in it.

Multi Gold is half-a-kilogram better off with Evolver for a 0,8 length beating over 3600m at Fairview, so there is also not much between those two.

However, there is not much between Ballad Of The Sea and Pacific Chestnut which casts doubt on the strength of that PE formline.

By David Thiselton

This looks like being Joey Ramsden’s final Vodacom Durban July with next year’s race seeing him watching it on TV from Singapore.

“We are definitely going and we are looking to open up there in October or November,” he says. “It depends when all the paperwork goes through.”

“Also I am waiting to see what happens with the export protocol. I am hearing lots of good things about this so I could wait for a few months, certainly until Christmas. But I am not going to wait for ever. If there is no action, and it proves to be a lot of bollocks, then we close up here before Christmas.”

There has been talk on the local grapevine that Ramsden will keep a satellite yard here, with the anticipated opening up of the protocol playing a big part in the way he runs (and fills) the Singapore operation. “I can’t answer for what the future might be,” he says when this is put to him.

Ramsden is speaking in his second floor box at Kenilworth last Saturday. His July prospects are the intended subject of the interview. “Twist of Fate?” he repeats the question. “He is doing good, doing brilliant in fact. He has worked very well.”

So what chance does he give the 12-1 shot on Saturday? “Not as good a chance as I gave him before last Tuesday,” is the immediate and unsmiling reply. His disgust at being landed with a 17 draw was pretty evident at the Gateway function and seemingly nothing has changed since.

“The trouble is that you are not in charge of your own destiny with a draw like that,” he explains. “If those drawn low decide not to make use of their draws then you have got a chance. But, if they do take advantage, your outside draw automatically becomes a huge handicap.”

The Conglomerate was drawn 20 and started at 20-1 when he won for Ramsden three years ago – an occasion that the trainer described at the time as “the best day of my life”. Had Ramsden given him much chance considering the draw? ”Yea, I did,” he recalls. “You always go there with a bit of hope.”

So what chance does he give Fresnaye? Better than the current 80-1?  “She is probably back to her right trip. The July is a rough race and I have the human bowling ball Greg Cheyne on top so I have got the right man.”

I’m not sure that Cheyne (in the art of jockeyship something of a craftsman) will appreciate the bowling ball analogy but what Ramsden probably means is that, if there is any argy-bargy, Cheyne is more than  capable of holding his own.

Is it always a rough race? “Always,” is the unhesitating reply. “People are invariably trying to get in from the outside and the fellow in front is usually easing back so there is a terrible concertina effect – and, if you get involved in the middle of the bait ball and you are going no pace, then you are in trouble.”

Bait ball? “Have you never watched National Geographic?” Ramsden makes the omission sound as if you have never heard of sliced bread. “Let me educate you.” He takes out his phone, goes into Google and comes up with a picture of a huge ball of sardines trying to protect themselves against hungry dolphins. Not quite like the July but you get the message.

The Mauritian-owned Twist Of Fate will be the third July ride for Nooresh Juglall but Cheyne, successful on Big City Life in 2009, is an old hand. He rode in the great race for the first time back in 1996 (London News’ year) on the Mike de Kock-trained Stride Head on whom he had already won the Greyville 1900.

By Michael Clower

If the Vodacom Durban July has a parallel on the world stage then it must be the Melbourne Cup. As author Les Carlyon wrote, the “Cup mocks good order because it’s a handicap. This gets rid of the preordained factor: just about any runner can win. It’s the best sporting idea anyone has ever had in this town.”

Like the Cup, the July is a cross between a horse race, a fashion parade and a folk festival. For racing people, the July is the high point of the calendar. Ask anyone intermittently involved which race they most want to win; it will always be the July.

It also has a lot to do with the fact that the public is allowed to join in for the crowd scenes.

It starts early with a fashion parade of outfits that normal people would not be seen dead in. The classier outfits are scattered among the crowd, the more daring hoping to make it onto television or the front page of the Sunday press.

Those in for the party and corporate invitees, mostly inhabit the infield tent town where they may or may not see a horse in the flesh for the entire day.

Picnic sites start out jealously guarded, each with their own space, but by the time the sun sets as the day races into the dark, the boundaries are blurred and the free-for-alls begin, often resulting in a few pugilistic contests with security playing referee.

Those that inhabit the grandstand are there for the horses. Often accosting trainers and jockeys for tips, they revel in the once-a-year opportunity of viewing many of the county’s best horses in the flesh and hopefully cashing in on inflated betting pools with their ‘inside information’.

On your way home, the trek to your car in the infield parking is an experience in itself. Booming music, as one marquee DJ tries to drown out his neighbour, is deafening as you step over bottles, broken glass and bodies at the same time sidestepping revellers way over the limit of the ‘blaas orkes’ awaiting them outside should they dare get behind the wheel. The words of Hunter S Thompson in his classic piece, ‘The Kentucky Derby is decadent and depraved’, coming to mind.

And the racing die-hards – they mostly hate July day.

By Andrew Harrison

The Andrews family combined forces with Lucinda Woodruff to bring off the biggest Winter Derby shock this century with Dharma at Kenilworth on Saturday.

The 50-1 Royal Air Force gelding was the rank outsider of the 11-strong field while owners Terry and Annabel Andrews bred both the horse and the jockey who greeted his parents with high fives.

“I was always travelling well,” Anthony reported. “In the straight I wasn’t worried about my horse – it was just a matter of how much those in front of me had left.”

Not enough was the answer and Geoff Woodruff’s daughter added: “This is my first feature win in Cape Town. Dharma had been running on at the end over 1 800m but I had a question mark about the 2 400m. Now it looks like the further the better.”

The jury is still out on whether Helen’s Ideal stays as far as the 2 200m of the Winter Oaks. Donovan Dillon had no doubt after coming in a well-beaten fifth on the 2-1 favourite – “In the straight she gave it to me until the 200m mark and then she was completely empty. It wasn’t the ground, she just doesn’t stay.”

But the NHA vet put a very different complexion on things, reporting to the stipes that the filly was lame on her left hind and, understandably perhaps, was abnormally fatigued. “I would have said that the distance was too far for her but equally it could have been the lameness,” said trainer Paul Reeves. “There will be another day for her although it would have been nice to make history (as the first to win the fillies’ winter series).”

The race was won by Duchess of Bourbon well handled by Richard Fourie who was completing a treble and who earlier on Alsflamingbeauty reached 100 Cape Town winners for the season. Less satisfactory was the seven-day suspension (July 7-13) he received for failing to keep straight on runner-up Nexus in the Winter Derby.

This was also the final leg of a Snaith Racing treble and Jono said: “The Winter Oaks was always our goal for Duchess Of Bourbon and I think she will get better and better. The Paddock Stakes might be a bit short for her but I expect she will have a go at it.”

Candice Bass-Robinson is optimistic that Langerman winner Snow Report will make a Guineas horse and said: “He is a bit headstrong and mentally he needs to settle, but hopefully that will come with time and racing.”

Runner-up Silver Operator only went under a by a short head and would have won in another two strides. He looks just as good a prospect and M.J. Byleveld reported: “I thought he was going to get up but he was a bit green – he had only had one run before – and the ground was holding.”

Glen Kotzen has Fillies Guineas ambitions for the Morne Winnaar-ridden Third Runway, his second successive Irridescence winner, saying: “She had only had one gallop, she is still growing and I didn’t think she would be suited by the sticky ground.”

Greg Cheyne, booked by Joey Ramsden for Fresnaye in the big one on Saturday, donned Gaynor Rupert’s colours to win the Ladies Mile on Platinum Class and said: “I had three rides in these colours today and I need to get comfortable in them as I’ve got a big job to do this week!”

By Michael Clower

The injury to the unbeaten Captain Of Stealth – most people’s idea of the best two-year-old in Cape Town – has proved to be more serious than first thought and Vaughan Marshall, having received the scan results, reported on Saturday: “He will be out for ten months.”

The Captain Al colt wrapped himself below the joint and just above the coronet in a freak accident. Marshall and stable jockey M.J. Byleveld have long since learned the hard way of the painful vicissitudes that somehow seem to go hand-in-hand with racehorses but the extent of the setback is a cruel blow to owners Pat Freestone and John Habib who had been dreaming of Guineas glory.

Magnificent Seven, scratched from the final field for Saturday’s Vodacom Durban July last Wednesday, is out for the season.

Jono Snaith said: “He strained a tendon on the morning before the gallops. It’s not bad but the vets were of the opinion that if he went on grass he could do damage. It is disappointing but we didn’t want to take a chance. We will put him away for the Cape season when he will go for the same sort of races that he did this time including the New Turf Carriers Stayers on Sun Met day that he won.”

The Kenilworth stipes have finally completed their inquiry into the riding of Kingston Rock, fourth in the 1 000m maiden at Kenilworth on May 18. Corne Orffer, who pleaded guilty to failing to ride out his mount to the end of the race, has been suspended for a fortnight.

By Michael Clower