According to the handicappers the local hopes won’t get a look in when it comes to Saturday’s World Sports Betting Cape Fillies Guineas. The Johannesburg-based Magnolia winner True To Life is rated seven points clear of the next best, Cockney Pride, who is also trained at the Vaal.

“They say that every year,” says Glen Kotzen dismissively. “What I say is let them come.” The Woodhill trainer, successful with Princess Victoria eight years ago, trains a quarter of the 16 runners including Third Runway who won the Western Cape Fillies Championship (often the best trial) in some style and was many people’s idea of the likely winner until the draws came out. But on Saturday she will line up with only two outside her and confidence considerably diminished.

“I am not going to moan because Brett Crawford has two wider than me,” Kotzen says philosophically. “She is really well and absolutely flying at home but obviously we are going to have to get lucky. She needs to get out and be handy but that’s never easy in a Group 1 when a lot of them are going to chase.

“The good news is that she has beaten a lot of the Cape Town fillies and our other three are also really smart. Castellano only ran four lengths off them in the Group 1 Thekwini and put up a magnificent gallop the other day. I think she is a big runner. Dynastic Light is working exceptionally well and all Follow The Star has been waiting for is the summer course. She is flying at the moment.”

Morne Winnaar, who has formed a supremely effective partnership with Kotzen in recent months, is the man faced with the task of getting Third Runway across. “I will need a bit of luck because the guys that are drawn well are not going to give up their positions,” he concedes. “But she was well away last time, she is a straightforward ride and you can put her anywhere.”

Third Runway is 15-2 and True To Life is favourite at 7-2 but many people’s idea of the winner is 13-2 shot Kelpie. You couldn’t fancy her on her rating, 9kg behind the favourite, but she has won her last four and she was most impressive on the most recent of them, coming right away in the final furlong to win by over four lengths and with ease. She will be ridden by Anton Marcus who has won two of the last three runnings and is trained by Brett Crawford who has won this twice before.

“I think she is the improver of the race,” says the Philippi trainer with masterly understatement. He also runs two others, both badly drawn. “The one thing in Flame Tree’s favour is that we are back on the summer course with it’s longer straight. We will be able to ride her giving her a little bit of a chance. This is something we are probably going to be forced to do from her 16 draw and I think we have to do the same with Pretty Young Thing (drawn 17).”

Driving Miss Daisy and Larentina were fourth and fifth in the Western Cape Fillies and there are grounds for believing that they will at least finish closer, particularly as Larentina did not get an entirely clear run. “Driving Miss Daisy had an even worse run and they were both drawn wide,” points out Eric Sands who won this with Perfect Promise in 2002. “This time they have good draws (one and three) so we will see how good they are but from the point of view of wellbeing and prep everything has gone 100%.”

Roll In The Hay was two and a half lengths third in the Western Cape Fillies and apparently not too much notice need be taken of her failure in a sprint handicap 11 days ago. “She didn’t want to go through a gap,” says Candice Bass-Robinson. “There is a question mark about the mile but she has a good draw and she has a money chance.”

Robert Khathi rides, Piere Strydom flies down for the mount on Drama Queen and Aldo Domeyer, successful on Silver Mountain four years ago, partners Sailing Ship. “I don’t think you can ignore Drama Queen. She was drawn badly in the Western Cape Fillies and got into a lot of trouble but she didn’t finish too far back. Sailing Ship also didn’t get a great run in that race and, although she is not drawn well at 12, I think she will go well.”

By Michael Clower

Do It Again goes into what could be a history-making season as second favourite for the World Sports Betting Green Point Stakes at Kenilworth on Saturday. But the trainer of the dual Vodacom Durban July winner would appear to rate the horse’s chance rather less than the sponsors’ 33-10.

“He has been on the grass twice, both were nice gallops and he is 80% ready but several of the others are much more ready than that,” says Justin Snaith whose only previous Green Point win was with Legislate five years ago. “What worries me is that we are going straight into a mile against the strongest horses in South Africa. Your comeback run shouldn’t be against horses like these but in Cape Town we don’t have a choice.

“On paper it’s an impossible task and no horse should be able to do it. But most horses aren’t Do It Again – and he looks amazing and I am very happy with his work at home. We will ride him to give him a chance but, realistically, I am just looking for a positive run that will bring him on for his next start.”

Snaith is responsible for almost a third of the field in the R2.5 million CTS Ready To Run Stakes but original favourite Rio Querari has gone out to 13-2 following Invidia’s way-above-rating run 17 days ago. He still reckons Rio Querari is the pick of his five but he fears that the decision to put the race back three weeks is going to cost him dear.

“I understand why they decided to delay the race – those who were entered had been guaranteed a run – but, while I still expect a good performance, I am not as bullish as I was then. A number of the Jo’burg horses have managed to get a run in the meantime whereas for us in Cape Town it has been a long time between races – and I personally galloped ours for nothing.” 

The Green Point has gone to Jo’burg in each of the last three years – via Sean Tarry and Legal Eagle – and Hawwaam has been backed from 21-20 last week to 17-20 to make it four for the visitors, despite not being able to travel before today when the AHS travel ban is due to be lifted.

His half-brother Rainbow Bridge is now a 5-1 chance and he will not be as ready as he was 12 months ago when he started favourite and was fourth in that famous four-way photo.

“This time last year we were concerned that he needed to qualify for the Sun Met so we had to race him and give him two runs (in the Matchem and the Cape Mile – he won both of them) before the Green Point,” recalls Eric Sands. “Obviously he was fitter then than he is now but he is not at his peak and nor do I want him to be at this stage. However he has had two gallops, Gavin Lerena has been down to ride him, I am happy where he is and I’m expecting a top run.”

Undercover Agent finished fractionally in front of both Do It Again and Rainbow Bridge when beaten a short head 12 months ago and he goes into the race having had a run. At 14-1 he looks a big price.

“You couldn’t find a more competitive field if you tried – it’s a Queen’s Plate in December – and it looks like being a real spectacle,” says Brett Crawford who was successful with Captain America in 2015. “The others are going to be hard to beat but I can only worry about my horse and what I can tell you is that he is fit, well and in great form.”

Crawford brings back last season’s Cape Fillies Guineas winner Front And Centre in the 1 400m Pinnacle. She is opposed by her KRA Fillies Guineas conqueror Santa Clara and the Sean Tarry-trained Celtic Sea who beat them both in the Jonsson Workwear Garden Province and also won the SA Fillies Sprint.

There are some tempting prices on offer about many of the runners on Saturday – the day when the Cape Summer Season truly comes to life – but punters should bear in mind that Windguru is forecasting 5mm of rain during the afternoon. That just might make a difference with some horses.

By Michael Clower

Much will rest on the shoulders of Victoria Paige and young Luke Ferraris at the Vaal tomorrow. On an eight card that looks none to easy, Sean Tarry’s filly will be top of the boards and also a popular exotic bet banker when she lines up in the fourth.

The daughter of Captain Al has not been out since the end of July where she finished just over two lengths behind the highly rated Gabor in the Gr1 eThekwini Stakes. However, she did not enjoy the best of draws after winning her first two races and a wide draw on the tight Hollywoodbets Greyville track can be problematic especially in top class company. She drew 13 out of 14 in the Gr2 Golden Slipper and nine out of 14 in the eThekwini.

The four month break is of concern but Victoria Paige appears to have scared off most of the opposition as she only faces six rivals in the Betting World Graduation Plate and should prove difficult to beat as her logical next mission will probably lie at Kenilworth given that the African Horse Sickness issue has been resolved.

The opening leg of the Pick 6 could rest between Atiaaf and the year older Midnight Top. Mike de Kock’s filly ran like she needed a good blow-out when fading late in his first run back after starting favourite on debut back in January. She is almost certain to have come on from her recent effort.

Midnight Top is a long-time battler and has been up-and-down in trip in a career spanning 17 starts. However, St John Gray appears to have got to the bottom of her as she has put in two stout recent performances and will be a threat to Atiaaf.

Three Peaks is another possible contender. Paul Peter’s filly finished a distance second at her second start but given the stable record she cannot be over-looked with any certainty. Three winners have since come out of that race.

Mike de Kock holds a strong hand in the fifth. Vaseem returned from a lengthy lay-off to win well over a distance that appears shot of his best. He can put one over stable companion Your Pace Or Mine who does return from a long break and gelding. Although winning his maiden at his second start, he may just need this outing. Leopold has put in two smart efforts since his maiden win and just beaten last time out. Gavin Lerena, who rides Your Pace Of Mine for his retained stable, will know just what he is up against.

The sixth is a mighty difficult race with any one of ten runners in with winning chances. A tentative vote goes to Malteza. Although she shed her maiden in a work riders race followed up with a cracking effort first up in handicap company when coming from the clouds. Her stable is in form and apprentice Philisande Mxoli will be dead keen for his first win. Empress shed her maiden at second time of asking and appears to have some scope while Decadent Lady caught all with their pants down when winning at 100-1. She was coming off a break and with a blue-blood pedigree one could expect her to find form at some time.

The advice in the exotics is to fill up.

The seventh s another tricky event over 2400m but Master And Man seldom puts in a bad effort and goes well over this trip. He is 2kg better off with At Hand who boasts a win and three seconds in his last four outings and should stay the extra. Before Noon was running on smartly over the trip last run last run and is 2kg better off with Skiminac who is in mustard form of late but could be hard-pressed to confirm the form. Major Return sports blinkers for the first time but does have a tricky outside draw.

Cairon, Ideal Man and Numberninteynine stand out in the last with the majority of the opposition short on any meaningful form.

By Andrew Harrison

Glasses will be raised at Flamingo Park today as those connected with the Kimberley course celebrate Phumelela’s decision to lift the axe that for the past three months has been hanging over the track like the sword of Damocles.

Few are more entitled to celebrate than Cliffie Miller who apparently played a major, and largely unheralded, part in saving the course which has been his life for more than four decades.

Miller, leading trainer at Flamingo Park last season and second on the log at the moment, said: “When they announced at the end of August that the course was to close after this week’s meeting I said ‘Nonsense. It can’t happen like that. We have our houses here, it’s not simply a matter of packing up and going somewhere else. I personally have been at Kimberley for 42 years.’

“I decided to get the ball rolling and I went to see the people who have stepped in to save the course (Gold Circle, Mary Slack and Hollywoodbets) and thankfully they decided to get together to keep us going for at least another year. They are the real heroes of all this.”

Miller is confident that, thanks to the new backers, the course has a future well beyond the next 12 months – “They say that they are looking at much further than a year.”

When Phumelela announced the closure they pointed out that the course was losing R23.5 million a year and had the lowest TAB turnover in the country at around R3 million. But without Flamingo Park’s 36 meetings a year, mostly on a Monday, the country could struggle to race every day in times of bad weather. South Africa would be down to just seven racecourses – at one time there were more than 90 racing clubs, each with their own racecourse.

Miller points out that the course’s importance to the racing industry should not be measured purely in terms of betting turnover, saying: “We are the only sand track left in South Africa and it is one that is very kind to horses. We buy horses that are bred to race on sand and many of those we get here would only win on sand – you can count on the fingers of one hand those that can also compete on grass. Also there is nowhere else that they can race. We couldn’t take them to Johannesburg because many of them come from there and they did nothing at Turffontein or the Vaal.”

By Michael Clower